VTrans2040 Vision Virginia s Statewide Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Policy Plan

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1 VTrans2040 Vision Virginia s Statewide Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Policy Plan Prepared for: Commonwealth Transportation Board Prepared by: Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment Spring 2015

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3 Contents Chapter 1: Background... 4 What Is VTrans?... 5 Why Do We Have a Statewide Transportation Plan?... 5 How Has VTrans Evolved Over Time?... 6 What Are the Legal Requirements for VTrans?... 6 Federal Requirements... 6 State Requirements... 7 How is VTrans2040 Different from Previous Statewide Plans?... 9 How Was The VTrans2040 Vision Developed?... 9 Chapter 2: Planning Process Performance Based Planning and Programming Framework How Did the Public Help Shape the Context of this Plan? Commonwealth Transportation Board Multimodal Advisory Committee Multimodal Working Group Public and Stakeholder Outreach Chapter 3: Trends and Implications The Context for Virginia Demographics, Economics, and Travel Behavior Implication 1. Improve efficiency of multimodal freight movement Implication 2. Make transportation investments in Placemaking to attract a 21 st century workforce Implication 3. Increase mobility options Implication 4. Enhance system performance through technology and user information Implication 5. Make infrastructure more sustainable and resilient Chapter 4: Vision, Guiding Principles, Goals and Objectives Vision Guiding Principles Goals and Objectives Next Steps: Completing Virginia s Performance Based Planning and Programming Process

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5 Chapter 1 We should be focused on improving the ability of Virginia businesses to move goods, attract more jobs to the Commonwealth, and improve the quality of life for all Virginians. Governor McAuliffe June 18,

6 Chapter 1: Background Chapter 1: Background The world is changing rapidly and future travel behavior is more difficult to predict than ever. Historically related trends, such as economic growth and vehicle miles of travel, are now diverging as generational preferences, technological capabilities and economic drivers re shape travel demand, influence transportation needs and are overturning long standing assumptions about travel behavior. In order to better understand the forces shaping future transportation needs, the VTrans2040 planning process began with a review of trends; including economic, technological, environmental and demographic/social trends. Analyzing these trends can help frame the future of transportation demand and travel behavior in Virginia. Considering the trend information together, there are some important insights emerging that influence VTrans2040. These are key implications for VTrans that rise to the surface as the trends shed light on Virginia s future economy and our need to attract the 21st century workforce and to support the goods movement needs of Virginia Businesses. In particular, Virginia needs to improve the efficiency of multimodal freight options to respond to the expected growth of freight dependent industries; increase modal options and active transportation choices in and around activity hubs in order to respond to the desires of the 21 st century workforce; improve user experience and increase transportation performance through targeted uses of VTrans2040 Vision Virginia s multimodal transportation system will be Good for Business, Good for Communities, and Good to Go. Virginians will benefit from a transportation system that advances Virginia businesses and attracts a 21 st century workforce by improving goods movement and supporting strategic placemaking. technology; and respond to the growing maintenance impacts of climate volatility and the aging transportation infrastructure by making investments that are sustainable and resilient. These trend insights in turn shaped the Vision, Goals, Objectives and Guiding Principles for VTrans2040. Through these Goals and Objectives VTrans2040 establishes measureable targets for the future performance of the transportation system. As such, VTrans2040 will be the first statewide transportation plan to fully incorporate performance based planning. In addition to establishing measureable objectives, VTrans2040 will serve as a screen for projects identified through the HB2 process. HB2 creates an important link between planning and programing by establishing a scoring process for projects that address a need identified in VTrans2040. The CTB will use this performance based planning process to inform their funding decisions for the Six Year Improvement Program. 4

7 What Is VTrans? VTrans is the long range, statewide multimodal policy plan that provides the overarching vision and goals for transportation in the Commonwealth of Virginia. It identifies transportation conditions and trends and anticipated growth patterns, and explores the demographic, economic, environmental and technological trends anticipated over the coming years and their potential influence on transportation. VTrans2040 provides a vision for Virginia s future transportation system and defines goals, objectives, and guiding principles to achieve the vision. It provides direction to state and regional transportation agencies on strategies and policies to be incorporated into their plans and programs. Why Do We Have a Statewide Transportation Plan? The ability to connect Virginia s people, markets, and goods in a dynamic 21st century global economy is critically dependent on its transportation system. Virginia s transportation system is a complex network of highways, sidewalks, trails, rail corridors, transit systems, information systems, airports and runways, shipping ports and docks, intermodal connectors, and even a space port. This variety of transportation options and the connections among them is the essence of a multimodal transportation system designed to serve residents, businesses, tourists and other visitors, all of whom have different needs and desires. Our transportation system is vital to our Commonwealth s future economic prosperity and quality of life. Although Virginia s General Assembly provided a boost to state transportation funding in 2013 via HB2313, the federal funding outlook remains bleak. Meanwhile, the share of funds necessary to meet maintenance requirements continues to grow. Consequently, it is more important than ever to identify the most critical needs and cost effective means to operate, maintain and improve the Commonwealth s transportation systems, with the core underlying principle that a prosperous economy is dependent upon a safe, efficient, and reliable Figure 1. The History of VTrans Updates 5

8 transportation system. The purpose of VTrans is to help Virginia achieve this balance. How Has VTrans Evolved Over Time? The Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment prepares VTrans in response to federal and state laws and is required to update the plan every four years with a minimum 20 year planning horizon. As shown in Figure 1, VTrans2025 was initiated in response to legislation in 2004 with the subsequent update, VTrans2035, coming out in A VTrans2035 Update Report was accepted by the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) in January, This interim update of VTrans2035 did not establish a new horizon year, nor did it include a fully updated analysis of anticipated long range transportation needs. Rather, it was focused on transforming the existing components of VTrans2035 into a new framework for linking system wide performance evaluations to planning, policy development, and funding decisions. VTrans2040 fleshes out this performancebased planning framework with a new horizon year of 2040, while addressing new legislative requirements that deepen the linkages between transportation planning and programming in the Commonwealth. In that regard, VTrans2040 also benefits from inputs and direction from a statewide freight plan that was recently completed to meet MAP 21 requirements. What Are the Legal Requirements for VTrans? The VTrans Vision is a policy document that guides and influences the development of the long range transportation plans and business plans of all of Virginia s modal agencies. The two components of VTrans2040, the Vision Plan and the Multimodal Transportation Plan, along with corridor and regional plans, provide the comprehensive, multimodal transportation planning documents that are consistent with state and federal regulations and guidelines. The following paragraphs summarize key federal and state requirements. Federal Requirements Federal regulations for statewide long range transportation planning and programming are spelled out in the United States Code Title 23, Chapter 1, Section 135 (Federal Aid Highways) and Title 49, Chapter 53 (Public Transportation). The statutes require each state to develop a long range plan and Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) that provide for the development and integrated management and operation of transportation systems and facilities (including accessible pedestrian walkways and bicycle transportation facilities) that will function as an intermodal transportation system for the State and an integral part of an intermodal transportation system for the United States. The federally required process for developing plans and programs is to consider all modes of transportation and to be continuing, Figure 2. Relationship of VTrans and HB2 Process 6

9 cooperative, and comprehensive to the degree appropriate, based on the complexity of the transportation problems to be addressed. Key planning factors to be considered include economic vitality; safety and security; accessibility, mobility, and multimodal connectivity of people and freight; protection and enhancement of the natural environment, energy conservation, and quality of life; consistency with local, regional and statewide plans; system efficiency; and preservation of existing transportation systems. In July 2012, Congress approved a new transportation bill entitled Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP 21). The 2012 legislation carries forward the key planning requirements and provisions of previous federal laws, and placed a new emphasis on developing performance based approaches to transportation planning and programming. Subsequent regulatory policies, known as rulemakings have spelled out specific targets and procedures for achieving federal transportation performance standards for safety, asset conditions, National Highway System performance, freight movement, and other goals. In order to adhere to these federal regulations, the VTrans2040 Update will include specific benchmarks and methods for evaluating system performance and anticipated investment outcomes. State Requirements Virginia Code Section calls upon the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB), with the assistance of the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI), to conduct a [multimodal] comprehensive review of statewide transportation needs in a Statewide Transportation Plan setting forth an assessment of capacity needs for all corridors of statewide significance, regional networks, and improvements to promote urban development areas established pursuant to section By providing a common framework for decision makers at all levels of government VTrans2040 seeks to guide transportation decisions and investments that will enhance our economy, support our communities, and safeguard our environment for the benefit of all. Key planning elements of the Virginia code include economic development, multimodal and intermodal connectivity, environmental quality, accessibility for people (including pedestrians and people with disabilities) and freight, transportation safety, environmental concerns, local land uses, and coordination with regional plans. The Multimodal Plan element of VTrans2040, to be developed during calendar year 2015, will include a description of statewide transportation needs. These needs will serve as a screening tool for a project funding prioritization process, which is also being developed during More information about this process, which was laid out by House Bill 2 adopted in 2014, is included later in this chapter. Virginia House Bill 2313 In May of 2013, Virginia signed into law House Bill 2313, a comprehensive transportation funding plan. Major highlights of the law include: Eliminates the 17.5 cents per gallon excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel Replaces the motor fuels tax with a 5.1 percent sales tax on the wholesale price of gasoline and a 6 percent sales tax on the wholesale price of diesel fuel 7

10 Increases the state sales and use tax from 5 percent to 5.3 percent Increase the tax rate from 3 percent to 4.15 percent Creates a $64 Alternative Fuel Vehicle fee to ensure that all drivers are contributing to Virginia's roadways Levies an additional 0.7 percent local sales tax, a $0.15/$100 Grantor's Tax, and a 2 percent Transient Occupancy Tax in Planning District 8 Levies an additional 0.7 percent local sales tax and a 2.1 percent fuel sales tax in Planning District 23 Since its adoption, HB 2313 has been updated, including a repeal of the Alternative Fuel Vehicle fee, and three additional transient occupancy taxes (HB 1704, SB 759 and SB 1240). Virginia House Bill 2 In the 2014 General Assembly session, House Bill 2 provided for the development of a prioritization process for projects funded by the Commonwealth Transportation Board. The CTB will begin testing the new HB2 screening process in the fall of 2015, and will fully implement the process by the summer of The legislation requires the prioritization process to incorporate regionally defined weights for factors such as congestion mitigation, economic development, accessibility, safety, and environmental quality. Congestion reduction is defined by the law as a top priority for the Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads highway construction districts. Virginia House Bill 2019 In the 2009 General Assembly session, House Bill 2019 further refined the rules and responsibilities of the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI). This bill charged OIPI with a series of goals and responsibilities, with a specific focus on assessing transportation needs for the corridors of statewide significance, regional networks and urban development areas, including to provide solutions that link existing systems; promote the coordination of transportation investments and land use planning; reduce congestion; improve safety, mobility, and accessibility; and provide for greater travel options. In addition, HB2019 assigns the following responsibilities to OIPI: 1. To identify transportation solutions to promote economic development and all transportation modes, intermodal connectivity, environmental quality, accessibility for people and freight, and transportation safety; 2. To assist the Commonwealth Transportation Board in the development of the Statewide Transportation Plan pursuant to ; 3. To coordinate and oversee studies of potential highway, transit, rail, and other improvements or strategies, to help address mobility and accessibility within corridors of statewide significance and regional networks, and promote commuter choice inclusion in the six year improvement program; 4. To work with and coordinate action of the Virginia Department of Transportation, the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation, the Virginia Port Authority, and the Virginia Department of Aviation to promote intermodal and multimodal solutions in each agency's strategic and long range plans; 5. To work with and review plans of regional transportation agencies and authorities to promote intermodal and multimodal solutions; 6. To work with and coordinate actions of the agencies of the transportation Secretariat to assess freight movements and promote intermodal and multimodal solutions to address freight needs, including assessment of intermodal facilities; 7. To assess and coordinate transportation safety needs related to passenger and freight movements by all transportation modes; 8. To coordinate the adequate accommodation of pedestrian, bicycle, and other forms of 8

11 nonmotorized transportation in the six year improvement program and other state and regional transportation plans; 9. To work with and coordinate actions of the agencies of the transportation Secretariat to implement a comprehensive, multimodal transportation policy; 10. To develop quantifiable and achievable goals pursuant to and transportation and land use performance measures and prepare an annual performance report on state and regional efforts. The Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment shall work with applicable regional organizations to develop such goals; 11. To identify and facilitate public and private partnerships to achieve the goals of state and regional plans; 12. To provide technical assistance to local governments and regional entities to establish and promote urban development areas pursuant to ; and 13. To establish standards for the coordination of transportation investments and land use planning to promote commuter choice and transportation system efficiency. How is VTrans2040 Different from Previous Statewide Plans? Because the prior VTrans plan (the VTrans2035 Update) was an interim document rather than a full update, VTrans2040 will be the first statewide transportation plan developed under new requirements added to the Code of Virginia in 2009 by House Bill It will also be the first statewide plan to fully incorporate the performance based planning and programming approach described in recent federal legislation (MAP 21, adopted in 2012) and state regulations (HB 2, adopted in 2014). By providing a common framework for decision makers at all levels of government, VTrans2040 seeks to guide transportation decisions and investments that will enhance our economy, support our communities, and safeguard our environment for the benefit of all. Upon its completion in early 2016, VTrans2040 will include two components. The first component is this document, the VTrans2040 Vision Plan, which includes updated Vision, Goals, Objectives, and Guiding Principles that reflect the priorities and concerns of stakeholders across the Commonwealth. A robust trends analysis has also contributed to the plan s focus on our changing socioeconomic dynamics and a range of future issues such as emerging technologies. The second component is the VTrans2040 Multimodal Transportation Plan (VMTP). To be developed during calendar year 2015, the VMTP will identify multimodal transportation needs and recommendations for 2025, as well as a discussion of potential future scenarios for It will replace the 2035 Virginia Surface Transportation Plan, which focused on highway and transit systems but did not address other modes. How Was The VTrans2040 Vision Developed? The VTrans2040 Vision Plan was developed through considerable public outreach and consultation with transportation partners and stakeholders. Development of this Vision Plan has involved a number of outreach activities, some of which are ongoing, including: Stakeholder outreach via advisory committees, focus groups, workshops, VTrans2040 will include two components: the VTrans2040 Vision and the VTrans2040 Multimodal Transportation Plan (VMTP) 9

12 and surveys to discuss demographic, economic, environmental, and technological trends; to gather insights on transportation related preferences and issues; and to elicit feedback on the Vision, Goals, Objectives and Guiding Principles and technological trends on the 2025 investment recommendations. General public outreach through a web survey, social media, and engagement at the CTB s fall public meetings in 2014 Briefings and workshops with the Commonwealth Transportation Board regarding future trends (information available on the CTB and VTrans.org websites) Reviews of the draft Vision, Goals, Objectives and Guiding Principles by the CTB, stakeholders and public in March April, 2015 The development of the VMTP will begin shortly after the completion of the Vision Plan and will provide a multimodal Needs Assessment that addresses the following elements identified in state and federal legislation: Statewide assessment of system maintenance needs for every mode of transportation. Each agency will provide this information based on recentlycompleted plans and/or ongoing analysis. Statewide assessment of safety improvements that need to be programmed by the Commonwealth. Assessment of 2025 projected operational and capacity needs for Corridors of Statewide Significance, Regional Networks and Urban Development Areas. Note that this Needs Assessment is a critical input to the HB2 project rating process. Assessment of 2040 scenarios to test the potential implications of long term demographic, economic, environmental, 10

13 Chapter 2 We should not measure progress in terms of how many lane miles we build or how many dollars that we spend. Instead, we need to look objectively at the benefits that a project will provide. Governor McAuliffe June 18,

14 Chapter 2: Planning Process Chapter 2: Planning Process As shown in the figure below, the planning process for the VTrans Vision Plan includes input from multiple sources, including data from previous planning efforts, input from trends analyses and forecasting, stakeholder input, and refinement by the Transportation Secretariat and the Commonwealth Transportation Board. by state and regional agencies, and ongoing performance measurement so that we can both direct our investments to be most effective and adjust our priorities according to performance results. In Virginia, transportation performance measures are reported to the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment to track progress on long range goals, and they are considered by state agencies during the Figure 3. Input that went into the VTrans2040 Vision Plan Performance Based Planning and Programming Framework VTrans2040 follows a performance based planning and programming framework. Virginia transportation agencies need a basis for prioritizing among their transportation needs because of constrained transportation funding. Performance based planning and programming provides a data driven approach to making these difficult choices. VTrans2040 focuses on creating a framework that links Goals and Objectives with project and program selection development of transportation plans and funding programs. However, there is currently a need to better link planning efforts and project selection with the performance metrics under each long range goal. As shown in the Vision, Goals and Objectives in Chapter 4, one of the hallmarks of this VTrans update is a much stronger performance management framework. A key feature of this framework is a series of clear measurable objectives under each goal that will be linked to performance targets and ultimately used to evaluate how well our 12

15 transportation investments are achieving our vision and goals. As shown in the figure below, there are a number of points in the statewide transportation planning process where performance measures are used to establish benchmarks for tracking progress. In this regard, performance based planning in Virginia will be a cyclical process. The goals set forth in VTrans inform the long range transportation needs, project recommendations are implemented to meet the needs and help Virginia meet the performance targets set forth in the VTrans objectives, and ongoing monitoring of Virginia s transportation system to meet these targets informs future adjustments of the goals and objectives. How Did the Public Help Shape the Context of this Plan? Outreach for the VTrans2040 Vision Plan included a multi faceted approach, which builds on previous VTrans efforts. A statewide vision, supported by broadly defined goals and priorities, was defined during the development of VTrans2025 and affirmed during the development of VTrans2035 and the VTrans2035 Update. In the outreach process for VTrans2040 stakeholders were asked to consider ways in which the prior Vision and Goals should be updated based on the review of a Trends Analysis that was conducted as part of the research for VTrans2040. In particular, input at this phase of the process was focused on how current and emerging trends might influence the need and use of transportation facilities in Virginia and how these trends Figure 4: Points in the Statewide Planning Process where Performance Measures are used (in red) 13

16 should be reflected in new or revised, goals, guiding principles, and objectives for the multimodal transportation system. The multi faceted approach to public and stakeholder outreach included hosting multiple statewide regional workshops, outreach to MPOs, a widely advertised public survey, hosting a broad range of webinars, targeted stakeholder outreach as needed throughout the planning process, and the use of interactive engagement tactics at all levels of outreach. All of these efforts help inform a stronger, more comprehensive multimodal plan. Commonwealth Transportation Board The Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) officially adopts the VTrans plans. The CTB meets once a month and has been engaged during these monthly meetings through technical presentations on study findings as the planning process and analyses progressed. Specifically, study findings were presented to the CTB on the following dates: October 15, 2014 November 12, 2014 January 14, 2015 February 17, 2015 Multimodal Advisory Committee A Multimodal Advisory Committee (MAC) was appointed by the Secretary of Transportation to serve as a steering committee for the VTrans planning process. Complementing the Multimodal Working Group s (MMWG s) technical oversight, the MAC plays a supportive role on all aspects of the project, with a strong focus on policy and engagement. The purpose of the MAC is two fold: one, to provide practical feedback and guidance from various agency and stakeholder perspectives; and two, to foster buy in and consensus among partner agencies and organizations that play an active role in implementing VTrans2040 policies and recommendations. A key feature of this VTrans2040 framework is a series of clear measurable objectives under each goal that will be linked to performance targets and ultimately used to evaluate how well our transportation investments are achieving our vision and goals. The MAC for VTrans2040 differed from previous VTrans advisory groups in that it included not only representatives of agencies that are involved in implementing VTrans2040, such as Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs), Rural Transportation Planning Organizations (RTPOs), local governments, transit providers, and state agencies, but also State officials and regional organizations that address related issues such as housing, human services, and local comprehensive planning. Organizations involved in the MAC included the following groups: Department of Aviation Motor Vehicle Dealer Board Virginia Port Authority Department of Motor Vehicles Virginia Department of Transportation Department of Rail and Public Transportation VA Association of MPOs Virginia Transit Association Virginia Association of Counties Virginia Municipal League Federal Highway Administration Department of Natural Resources Commerce and Trade Veterans and Defense Affairs Health and Human Resources 14

17 Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization Northern Virginia Transportation Authority The MAC met three times over the course of the Vision Plan development. The focus of their meetings included: Interagency coordination on relevant planning and research activities Discussion of current and future trends shaping transportation needs Input on the Vision, Guiding Principles, Goals and Objectives Multimodal Working Group The MMWG serves as the technical committee for VTrans development. This group consists of the lead planners for each mode of transportation and the policy advisors of every agency within the Secretariat, including the Virginia Department of Transportation, Department of Motor Vehicles, Motor Vehicle Dealer Board, Virginia Department of Aviation, Virginia Port Authority, Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation, and the Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority. This group meets on an at least a monthly basis and informs all plans and projects OIPI undertakes, in order to ensure a truly multimodal transportation system is achieved and maintained in Virginia. Public and Stakeholder Outreach Additional outreach efforts included an online survey completed by nearly 3,000 Virginia residents; opportunities for people to learn about VTrans and provide input during nine statewide Commonwealth Transportation Board fall public meetings; forums for regional and state transportation planners and providers; and webinars with interest groups and freight providers. VTrans2040 Vision Outreach Activities Participants Activity Focus General Public VTrans Online Survey Understanding travel behavior and preferences by region and generation General Public State and Regional Transportation Planners & Providers VTrans station at CTB Fall Public Meetings (9 locations) Planners Forums (one webinar, and one held in 5 locations around the state) Webinar Input on how trends should shape the plan vision, goals and objectives Reviewing trends and providing input on vision, guiding principles, goals and objectives Interest Groups and Freight Advisors Reviewing trends and providing input on Vision, GP, Goals and Objectives Multimodal Advisory Quarterly meetings Input on vision, goals, guiding principles, Committee and opportunities for coordination with partner agency goals and initiatives Multimodal Working Group Monthly meetings General guidance on outreach activities and plan content 15

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19 Chapter 3 Demographic and market studies consistently show that workers in the 21 st century economy prefer walkable communities that are served by rail and public transit, as well as roads. If we want to cultivate this work force, which we need to do, we need to get ahead of these trends. Governor McAuliffe June 18,

20 Chapter 3: Trends and Implications Chapter 3: Trends and Implications The world is changing rapidly. Demographic, technological and other changes are influencing people s choices and options, particularly those related to transportation and housing. Planners are finding themselves having to re think long standing assumptions about travel behavior. Shifts in technology, economic drivers and generational preferences are shaping travel patterns in entirely new ways. New trends are beginning to emerge with many analysis factors that have been closely linked throughout much of the 20 th century era of the automobile, such as economic growth and vehicle miles of travel. Starting in the late 1990s, American city centers slowly began to grow again after decades of decline, while growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) leveled off after decades of exponential increases. In order to better understand the forces shaping future transportation needs, the VTrans2040 planning process included an extensive analysis of trends and implications related to economics, technology, the environment and demographic/social conditions. An assessment of the implications of these trends is essential when considering potential future transportation demand and travel behavior in Virginia. The project team collected data from many different national and state sources to better understand Virginia s projected economic and demographic changes and the potential impacts these changes might have on the Commonwealth s transportation infrastructure needs. Forecasts are inherently speculative, however, and therefore must be regarded with caution. In many cases, multiple data sources were used for a measure because each data source has its own assumptions, levels of accuracy, and geographic scale. The purpose of reviewing the different forecasts is to understand where we appear to be headed in Virginia and take steps to direct our policies and investments towards the place we want to be. A full analysis of each trend is included in the Figure 5. Overall analytic framework for the VTrans2040 Trends Analysis 18

21 appendices to this report: Demographics (VCTIR) Economy (Cambridge Systematics) Freight (Cambridge Systematics) Commuting (CDM Smith) VTrans Survey Results (Baker) This chapter explores some of the broad implications of these trends at global, national and statewide levels. Discussions of these implications among project advisors and stakeholders helped to shape the VTrans2040 vision, guiding principles, goals and objectives described in Chapter 4. The Context for Virginia Demographics, Economics, and Travel Behavior Virginia s population is growing and aging, which will influence the way Virginians travel in the future and the types of transportation infrastructure needed to serve the future population. Specifically, Virginia s population is expected grow by approximately 2.34 million In 2040, the share of Virginia s population aged 65 and over will resemble the current statistics for Florida nearly 1 in 5 residents will be seniors. between 2012 and 2040, while the only age group that will grow in its share of the population is the 65 and over group. This age group currently represents 13% of Virginia s population at present; it is forecast to represent 18% of the population by For Virginia as for the nation, the aging of the baby boom generation will affect virtually every aspect of governance, from housing and health care to technology and transportation. Virginia s growth is not expected to be distributed evenly across the state. According to Figure 6. Forecasted Cumulative Population Growth by PDC from 2012 to

22 forecasts from the Weldon Cooper Center, four of Virginia s 21 Planning District Commission regions (PDCs) the urban crescent encompassing Northern Virginia, Fredericksburg, Richmond, and Hampton Roads will attract 77% of the state s added residents between now and Nearly three quarters (71%) of the new population will be located in just ten of Virginia s 133 localities, spread across northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, and Frederick Counties west of Washington DC, and Stafford Spotsylvania Counties south of the Capitol) and; suburban Richmond (Chesterfield and Henrico Counties); and Hampton Roads (James City County and the city of Chesapeake). Virginia s economic output is forecasted by Woods & Poole to grow at an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.8% per year. This translates into a growth of 65.6% over the course of the 28 years between 2012 and 2040, which would result in the economy of Virginia growing to over 700 billion dollars per year. As with population growth, Virginia s future wealth is also expected to spread unevenly across the state. More than three quarters (81.6%) of all employment growth from between now and 2040 is forecasted to occur in the same four regions as the population growth. More than half of the economic growth will cluster around the expanse of suburban Washington DC in the Northern Virginia Regional Commission area (48.2%) and the George Washington Regional Commission (Fredericksburg) area (4.0%). The Richmond Region is expected to absorb 15.3% of future Virginia s economy is likely to grow at an average annual growth rate of approximately 1.8% per year. This translates into a growth of 65.6% over the course of the 28 years between 2012 and economic growth, with another 14.1% in Hampton Roads. The same data set forecasts that 78.5% of all employment growth from 2012 to 2040 will be in 10 local clusters, nearly all of which are in the Northern Virginia area: Fairfax County and the cities of Fairfax and Falls Church; Loudoun County; Prince William County and the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park; Arlington County; the City of Alexandria; Spotsylvania County and the City of Fredericksburg. The remaining areas in the Top 10 list of highgrowth local economies include the Hampton Roads cities of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach, and the suburban Richmond counties of Chesterfield and Henrico. Unlike population Figure 7. Forecasted Virginia share of US Economic Output;

23 sought after workers. Figure 8. Vehicle Miles Traveled in the US and Virginia, forecasts, however, most areas of the Commonwealth are forecast to see net economic growth over the same period. So, while the greatest amounts of economic growth will occur in the most populous areas of the state, there will be also be some more widespread growth throughout Virginia. Despite the forecasted increase in Virginia s population and economic activity, the demand for automobile transportation may not increase correspondingly as it once did. Trends suggest that VMT in Virginia and in the United States as a whole has been leveling off or slowly decreasing since the mid 1990s. There are many trends that influence this relationship such as the desire for multiple mode choices and living in activity rich neighborhoods allowing for shorter trips. These and other influencing trends will be discussed further in the implications described below. Another important measure of economic success is Virginia s share of the total national economic output. As shown in the chart below, despite an expectation of significant growth, Virginia s share of total US economic output is forecasted to decline between now and This is an important metric since America s states compete vigorously to attract and retain high growth and high wage economic sectors and labor forces. Virginia s anticipated downward slide in the national competition for prosperity heightens the urgency of providing high quality transportation infrastructure and services that can help the Commonwealth to retain and attract first class companies, successful entrepreneurs, and Vehicle ownership rates also have particular influence over mode share and therefore VMT. For example, a 2014 AASHTO report indicates that amongst workers with no vehicle available, Figure 9. Drivers Licensure Rate by Age Group from 1990 to

24 the drive alone mode share is 21%; it increases to 72% for households with one vehicle available and exceeds 80% for households with two vehicles available. Within Virginia over the past few years, vehicular ownership and driving licensure rates have dropped. Factors such as improvements in road quality, more affordable vehicles, and higher travel speeds stimulated increased car ownership and vehicle travel over the course of the 20 th century. But during the dawn of the 21 st century, the increase in the rate of vehicle ownership in Virginia appears to have slowed or stopped; an estimate of registered vehicles per person in Virginia for the year 2012 was 84.5%, largely similar to that for year the 2000 at 84.2%. The rate of Virginians getting a driver s license has dropped as well; 89% of Virginians age 15+ had a driver s license in 1990, but by 2012 the percentage was 83%, with more substantive decreases among younger age groups. Considering the information gathered in the Trend Analysis as a whole, there are some important insights emerging that have a potential bearing on the VTrans2040 Vision Plan. As part of the Trends Analysis, the key trend information has been synthesized into a series of pivotal Implications for policy direction in VTrans2040. These Implications also shed light on core focus areas of VTrans such as this administration s priority of attracting the 21 st century workforce and supporting the goods movement needs of Virginia businesses, as well as the abiding focus on safety and maintenance. The following five Implications are the primary game changers that could influence policy development in this plan and in the coming years of transportation investments in the Commonwealth. Implication 1. Improve efficiency of multimodal freight movement Freight transportation demand is driven by a state s business and economic structure, Figure 10. Mode Split by Weight 2012 particularly by those sectors most dependent upon freight transportation. As such, the economic future of Virginia and the success of its major industries are intertwined with the effectiveness of the state s freight transportation network. Trucking continues to be the dominant mode of freight transportation by weight and value. However, across the US and in Virginia, forecasts of freight growth to 2040 indicate that other modes such as rail, air, and intermodal freight transportation are quickly growing. It is expected that these other modes will move an increasing percent of freight tonnage. The growth of freight tonnage in Virginia is forecasted to lag just slightly behind the average across the US. This lower growth is expected across all modes, except for rail and intermodal freight travel. While this growth is subject to a variety of national and global dynamics, ensuring that we have investments that improve the efficiency of freight movement is essential to best support Virginia s share of the economic benefits resulting from freight and goods movement. 22

25 200% 45%All Modes US 43%All Modes VA 48% 88% 44% 100% 85% 107% 56% 110% 31% 24% 16% -5%,-14% Truck Rail Water Air Intermodal Pipeline Other Non-Domestic -55% -17% Figure 11. Forecasted U.S. and Virginia Tonnage Growth by Mode, Figure 12. Forecasted Change in Virginia and U.S. Economic Output by Industry between 2012 and SO URCE: FAF3 23

26 In order to support the freight needs of Virginia businesses, it is paramount to provide maximum flexibility and be prepared to accommodate shifting needs on the basis of changing technology and energy costs, as well as competing needs for the highway and rail systems. As commuters, business travel and freight compete for both highway and rail capacity, efficiency of movement will be paramount and there is great need for flexibility in freight mode shifts as a means to achieve that efficiency. Freight movement is vital to key growth sectors in the economy. Forecasts indicate that the Virginia economic output in agriculture, mining and extraction, manufacturing and retail trade is expected grow at a higher rate than the national economy. These industries are all high output industries that have strong impacts on the growth forecasts for freight movement. The manufacturing sectors, in particular, are value added industries, and their cost model can be very sensitive to transportation and energy costs. The same is true for the key commodities that are being moved in Virginia. Freight movers seek to be nimble, and having the ability to shift mode in response to changing energy costs is important. Improvements in freight logistics, technology and physical intermodal transfer locations could improve the overall efficiency of freight flows. Implication 2. Make transportation investments in Placemaking to attract a 21 st century workforce Trends indicate that businesses are actively seeking both the millennial and baby boom generations as key labor force demographics. Statistically, Millennials will account for 52% of the workforce by 2030 and due to their age, they are likely to be a highly mobile sector of the population. On the other end of the spectrum, Baby Boomers are retiring, often downsizing and increasingly creating new businesses and investing in entrepreneurial ventures. Despite their differences, both of these generations are showing similar locational preferences, centered on an inclination towards walkable places and mixed use activity hubs. As a result, businesses and future growth industries are increasingly locating in mixed use activity centers and clustered hubs to be close to their existing workforce and attractive to the preferences of future workers. The process of combining strategic public investments with environmental design strategies to provide good access and travel choices in targeted activity hubs is called Placemaking. It is important to consider how transportation investments that support Placemaking can help Virginia to maximize success in attracting these economic drivers of future growth. A key finding of the Trends Analysis is that half of Virginia s future growth will depend on migration and immigration. The process of attracting the workforce to support the desired 21 st century economy in Virginia is not likely to occur without strategically planned initiatives on the Commonwealth s part. Virginia s forecasted industries expected to bring the greatest income to the Commonwealth are the high tech and knowledge based industries that rely heavily on skilled Millennials for their workforce. For the Professional Services sector, there is expected to be 25% growth in employment, close to a 50% increase in output and about 400% growth in income in the 2040 forecast for Virginia. Millennials are a key focus of this growth because they will be the core workforce in the planning horizon for VTrans, and our transportation investments will need to take this into account if we are to continue to Figure 13. Importance of Immigration to Virginia's Population Growth 24

27 attract this 21 st Commonwealth. century workforce to the Implication 3. Increase mobility options Along with the locational preferences seen among Millennials and Baby Boomers, there is also a growing linkage between their transportation choices and their attitudes and values related to health and the environment. Millennials and Boomers increasingly value healthy and environmentally responsible transportation choices for their travel. They seek places to live and work that provide those travel choices. The demographic and economic trends converge when looking at the current patterns of travel and land use: the areas of the state with the highest shares of bicycle, walking, and transit travel are the same ones forecasted to attract the most high income jobs and Millennial generation workers. Figure 14. Forecasted growth in Professional Services industries in the U.S. from 2012 to % of Millennials and 77% of Active Boomers say affordable and convenient transportation alternatives to the car are at least somewhat important when deciding where to live. Statewide trends also show a rise in non auto modes for commute trips in recen t years. At the same time, technology is bringing shareduse mobility to the forefront, including growth in shared cars and bikes and shared rides. It is important to note that these two trends can only be tracked leading up to today and cannot be accurately forecast into the future, but there is evidence to suggest the momentum with these trends will continue. In fact, responses from the VTrans survey suggest that many Virginians would prefer to use alternative modes of transportation. Shared use mobility services have provided affordable and accessible transportation options during recent times of financial uncertainty. Looking to the future, new developments in shared use mobility have the potential to change current paradigms of travel modes by offering a wider variety of ways to travel more conveniently. The challenge is how to integrate these services into the existing transportation network. Virginia s local, regional and statewide transportation agencies have a role in supporting these services by 25

28 establishing policies and regulations to ensure public safety. A significant finding of the Trend Analysis was that, according to the 2040 forecasts, about half of the projected increase in Virginia s population of 2.3 million people will occur in jurisdictions with densities that can or will be able to support at least fixed route bus transit. This growth in density will leverage the potential in these areas to increase transit use, and provide potential demand for walkable community types as well. Together, these trends point to a policy focus directed towards increasing mobility options. In particular, supporting public transit, inter city rail and bus, walking, biking, and shared use mobility could potentially be an important aspect of attracting and retaining the workforce and entrepreneurs that are critical to Virginia s future economic success. Implication 4. Enhance system performance through technology and user information Smart infrastructure, also known as Intelligent Transportation Systems, applies information systems technologies to communicate information that helps operators and users make 'smarter' use of transportation networks. Advanced technologies are in development across the globe that are improving transportation systems. Smarter roads and smarter vehicles through technology can help improve safety, congestion and fuel economy. Figure 15. Linking Transit and Health In February 2015, the Virginia legislature passed HB 1662 and SB 1025 which lifted the ban on Uber, Lyft and other app based ride hailing services. Through HB 1887 additional sources of funding have been identified for eligible travel demand management (TDM) projects and programs. Figure 16. Current and Preferred Mode Choice of VTrans Survey Respondents 26

29 Figure 17. Commute trips by mode in Virginia from 2005 to 2012 Figure 18. Regional population forecasted to live in communities with transit-supportive densities in 2040 Intelligent Transportation Systems can also help 27

30 Intelligent Transportation System can also help with the increasing demand for cost effective transportation investments that focus on improving reliability over speed, especially as increasing maintenance needs for aging systems funnel more transportation funds to maintenance. However, there are uncertainties about the future that perhaps urge some caution in the planning process. While system maintenance costs present a rising challenge to funding system improvements, technology holds the potential for improving safety and effectively increasing the capacity of the existing system. Advances in information technology and smart infrastructure also have the potential to increase system efficiency to meet future transportation demand. Getting more capacity out of an existing system through smarter user interfaces and traveler information, for example, is one of the most significant technologies happening right now. The uncertainty of travel times due to incidents and congestion has bred an increasing focus on travel reliability and its impact on time and cost. In many ways, travel reliability is eclipsing speed as the primary concern among the public and stakeholders. Focusing on enhancing system performance through technology and user information is a prudent way to increase the efficiency of our current system in light of future constraints and future uncertainties. In addition, alternative assumptions about future technological developments, especially regarding major innovations such as automated vehicles, may alter long term system needs and will be addressed in a 2040 scenario analysis in the VTrans Multimodal Transportation Plan. Implication 5. Make infrastructure more sustainable and resilient Environmental trends also call for prudence and planning in transportation investments. Climate volatility with respect to frequency and severity of weather related incidents in all seasons, creates potentially significant implications for transportation investment needs. In particular, sea level rise, for which Virginia s coastal areas are particularly vulnerable, will create more frequent flooding. In addition, potential heat impacts give rise to concerns about system maintenance and replacement costs and general resiliency of facilities and services; and severe winter weather increases maintenance and road clearing costs.from a policy standpoint, as the transportation sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, institutions and governments are increasingly demanding more 28

31 resilient transportation systems with less environmental impact. As with some of the technology trends, the VTrans Multimodal Transportation Plan will look at how alternative assumptions about the future may affect longterm needs and system costs through scenario evaluation for

32 30

33 Chapter 4 New funding must accompany a new way of thinking about transportation This process needs to take a hard look at old assumptions and break preconceived notions. Governor McAuliffe June 18,

34 Chapter 4: Vision, Guiding Principles, Goals and Objectives Chapter 4: Vision, Guiding Principles, Goals and Objectives The VTrans2040 Vision articulates broad goals, guiding principles, and objectives that reflect the priorities and concerns of the policy makers and stakeholders across the Commonwealth. The visioning process included assessments of transportation related issues and opportunities in light of important trends and their implications as discussed in Chapter 3. Vision A vision represents a description of the desired future state of multimodal transportation in Virginia. A vision answers the question What do we want? The following is Virginia s vision for transportation in the future: Virginia s multimodal transportation system will be Good for Business, Good for Communities, and Good to Go. Virginians will benefit from a transportation system that advances Virginia businesses and attracts a 21 st century workforce by improving goods movement and supporting strategic placemaking. Figure 19. Linking Vision, Guiding Principles, Goals and Objectives 32

35 Guiding Principles Guiding principles are a set of cross cutting standards of behavior that apply to all aspects of the transportation planning and decision making process. Inherent in every goal and every objective is the consideration of the guiding principles. The guiding principles answer the question How will we conduct ourselves? Guiding Principle 1: Optimize Return on Investments Implement the right solution at the right price by analyzing comprehensive data that considers the impact on economic prosperity and livable communities. Guiding Principle 2: Ensure Safety, Security, and Resiliency Provide a transportation system that is safe for all users, has continual operations during evacuation, and allows for rapid mobilization for disaster and incident response. Guiding Principle 3: Efficiently Deliver Programs Deliver high quality projects and programs in a cost effective and timely manner. Guiding Principle 4: Consider Operational Improvements and Demand Management First Maximize capacity of the transportation network through increased use of technology and operational improvements as well as managing demand for the system before investing in major capacity expansions. Guiding Principle 5: Provide Transparency and Accountability through Performance Management Establish performance targets for key outcomes, measure progress towards targets and adjust programming and policies as necessary to achieve the established targets. Guiding Principle 6: Improve Coordination between Transportation and Land Use Promote transportation efficient land use by providing incentives to local governments. Guiding Principle 7: Ensure Efficient Intermodal Connections Provide seamless connections between modes of transportation to harness synergies. Figure 20. Guiding Principles 33