The global supply and demand for seafarers

Transcription

1 MANPOWER REPORT The global supply and demand for seafarers Looking Deeper into Seafarer Supply Issues Douglas W. Lang Managing Director, Anglo-Eastern (UK) Chairman of the Steering Committee for the Manpower Report 2015 ICS Conference 7 September 2016

2 Outline Background to the Report Challenges in compiling the Report Context, aims and new features Current supply and demand for seafarers Future supply and demand forecasts Identifying the challenges Addressing the challenges Using the report and conclusions

3 Background to the Report First Report produced in 1990 by ICS and BIMCO. Surprise that a comprehensive census of seafarer numbers did not previously exist. Expectations that such a Report would be correct to two decimal places. Original team coming to terms with the disparate and varying quality of information available

4 Context As an industry we need to know the likely availability of our most important asset both in the short term and longer term. Due to the training and development lag, we must be looking at least ten years ahead. Without sound information and an awareness of what initiatives are taking place globally we do not know whether we are in a positive position as an industry or not.

5 Aims At the highest level provide a comparative balance between the global supply and demand that can be compared to previous reports and the historical reality. Provide sufficient information to allow extrapolation into specific sectors. Details about the composition of the supply of seafarers that operate the world merchant fleet, including their nationalities, ranks/roles, age profiles and gender. The anticipated future growth of the world merchant fleet over the next ten years and the possible impacts on the global manpower situation.

6 New features Expanded number of ship types and sectors covered. Average operational manning levels were determined based on crew lists of ships visiting Singapore over a one-month period. Collection of data about seafarers based on valid STCW certificates. Additional surveys were conducted collected a wider range of views and opinions, and assisted with the interpretation of the data. More detailed information on recruitment difficulties, wastage and turnover rates. Nine scenarios to simulate possible future supply and demand circumstances.

7 Supply of seafarers Estimated 1,647,500 seafarers 774,000 officers 873,500 ratings Estimated global supply of seafarers

8 Supply of seafarers Estimated five largest seafarer supply countries Most important seafarer supply countries

9 Demand for seafarers Estimated demand for 1,545,000 seafarers 790,500 officers 754,500 ratings. Estimated global demand for seafarers

10 Demand for seafarers Nearly 60% of the global demand for officers is estimated to be on board ships with around 40% being ashore at any given time. Just over 70% of the global demand for ratings is on board ships at any given time. Estimated demand for seafarers by ship type

11 Global supply-demand situation

12 Future supply and demand forecasts Basic forecast for the future supply of officers. Based on current recruitment and training levels and wastage rates. Basic forecast for the future demand for officers. Based on fleet forecasts for 2020 and 2025 by ship type and tonnage range and current average operational manning levels and MBRs. 9 alternative scenarios simulating a variety of possible circumstances.

13 Future supply and demand forecast X Y

14 Other findings Women seafarers may represent approximately 1% of the estimated global supply of qualified seafarers. Recruitment and training levels are estimated to have improved to 1 officer trainees per 7.6 qualified officers (1:10 in 2010). Retention of seafarers is estimated to have improved with annual wastage rates estimated at around 2.3% to 2.4% for deck and engineer officers.

15 Identifying the challenges People-related Training-related Information & Communication related Recruitment Availability and flexibility Awareness and publicity Retention Quality of MET delivery and facilities Image of the industry Competency assessment Availability of data to inform decisions and strategies

16 Addressing the challenges Disparate quality of seafarer data When is a seafarer not a seafarer Influence of Man/Berth Ratio (MBR) Ensuring the data makes sense Forecasting the supply side is easy compared to the demand side!

17 Using the report If you subscribe to the view, the industry always manages no ship has ever been stopped for lack of Manpower, then the Report is not for you. The global overview is interesting in respect of the general health of the industry, but it is the detail that offers opportunities for further study and analysis. The report can be the starting point for further study at national, MET or shipowner level. The background to the forecasts is well documented, however it is free to use the numbers and perform your own projections or form your own conclusions.

18 Conclusions 2015 Manpower Report is the most comprehensive to date. The Report has expanded to provide data at various sub-levels that make it much more relevant to a wider audience. The Report provides Insight into how our seafarers view the industry and offers additional information for planning and development. The Report does not present solutions on a tray but offers a sound starting point for anybody in our industry that needs to understand with a high level of confidence where they might be in the short to medium future. The Report has raised the bar compared to previous versions so no pressure on the team undertaking the next one

19 MANPOWER REPORT Information on how to obtain a copy can be found at