OTC FLNG Projects Economics Improvement Based on Reliability Assessment

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1 OTC FLNG Projects Economics Improvement Based on Reliability Assessment Presenter and Co-Author: Gustavo Rocha, Bureau Veritas Authors: O. Benyessaad, K. Forte and V. Le Diagon, Bureau Veritas

2 Slide 2 Agenda Introduction to FLNG Challenges RAM Definitions & Objectives FLNG RAM Case Study Conclusions

3 Slide 3 Liquefied Natural Gas NG is voluminous at low pressure LNG is approximately 600 times denser than NG Liquefy the NG is the best solution to transport large quantities of gas 1m 3 of NG 1.6L of LNG

4 The Conventional LNG Industry Slide 4

5 Slide 5 Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) unit concepts For the last 5 years, about 30 projects of FLNG units have been seriously taken into consideration (Shell Prelude, Coral FLNG, Exmar Caribbean FLNG, Petronas FLNG, etc.) Minimise potential impact on human due to offshore location Reduce environmental footprint compared to other fossil energies Cost effective way of monetizing remote gas reserves Minimise visual impact on & from the coastline (NIMBY) Avoid the need of roads, infrastructures etc Reduce permitting issues

6 Offshore Floating Units Map (Sep. 2015) Slide 6

7 Slide 7 Some of the Key Challenges for Consideration There are many issues that need to be carefully examined when considering an Offshore LNG facility Safety Issues High CAPEX / OPEX Performance & Reliability Procurement / LLI Inspection, Maintenance, Repair Environmental impact Location / Access Qualified personnel Political & Social Issues Permitting issues LNG Transfer Mooring System

8 Slide 8 RAM Terms and Definitions Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) Modelling The high cost of equipment failure, resulting in reduced production, illustrates the desire for a highly available system

9 Slide 9 Reliability RAM Terms and Definitions Ability of an item to perform a required function under given conditions for a given time interval. Availability Availability is the ability of an item to be in a state to perform a required function under given conditions at a given instant of time or over a given time interval, assuming that the required external resources are provided. Maintainability Ability of an item under given conditions of use, to be retained in, or restored to, a state in which it can perform a required function, when maintenance is performed under given conditions and using stated procedures and resources.

10 Slide 10 Reliability: Identification of Equipment & Systems failure modes RAM Objectives Identify and rank the critical systems and components contributing to production losses (power generators, gas turbines, exchangers ) Identify reliability issues in the designs to recommend changes Availability: Evaluate the production availability of an installation (from subsea well to shore) Evaluate production profile impact on the production availability Maintainability & Operability: Provide guidance for future OPEX allocations in the form of the frequency and duration of unplanned maintenance requirements Assess the number of maintenance utility intervention (different types of vessel) Quantify the impact of operations and maintenance philosophies 10% reduction Up to 10% reduction in production downtime over installation lifecycle 25% reduction Up to 25% reduction in planned maintenance impact on prodution availability 10% reduction Up to 10% reduction in operating expenditure (OPEX)

11 Slide 11 The subsea system The FLNG system Case Study: FLNG Project Subsea facilities systems Subsea control and safety systems Production turret swivel assembly Raw gas treatment systems Gas dehydration systems Liquefaction of dry gas 3 MTPA of LNG The FLNG installation has been designed to produce 3 million of ton per annum of LNG 25 Years System life Installation has been designed to remain on site and produce for 25 years The transfer system Utility systems LNG storage side by side offloading 90% Availability Production availability target of the FSC has been set at 90% by the project

12 Slide 12 RAM Analysis Process Project Familiarization Development of Reliability Data Set Assumption Model Construction and Simulation Results Generating

13 Slide 13 RAM Analysis Process Project Familiarization Development of Reliability Data Set Assumption Model Construction and Simulation Results Generating

14 Slide 14 RAM Analysis Process Project Familiarization Development of Reliability Data Set Assumption Model Construction and Simulation Results Generating

15 Slide 15 RAM Analysis Process Project Familiarization Development of Reliability Data Set Assumption Model Construction and Simulation Results Generating

16 Slide 16 RAM Analysis Process Project Familiarization Development of Reliability Data Set Assumption Model Construction and Simulation Results Generating

17 Slide 17 RAM Analysis Process Project Familiarization Development of Reliability Data Set Assumption Model Construction and Simulation Results Generating

18 Slide 18 Main Assumptions TARGETS Production throughput target is 3 MTPA of LNG Production availability target is 90% for the full supply chain RELIABILITY DATA Failure rate are issued from OREDA (Exponential Distribution) Failure mode has been adapted (Clean VS Normal Service, Type of mobilization required in case of failure ) Mean Time To Repair are issued from OREDA Active Repair Time (Exponential Distribution) CONTROL & SAFETY SYSTEMS MAINTENANCE & OPERATION Trips of transmitters linked to PCS, ESD, BDS and Alarms are not considered in the RAM model Trips of Pressure Safety Valves were not considered in the RAM model Trips of the facility Inlec systems are not included Trips of shutdown valves and of some control valves are included Preparation & Mobilisation times have been considered (BLNG input data) Sparing lead times have not been considered at this stage (Concept Stage) Planned Maintenances have been considered (Gas Turbine, Topside, FLNG Tank, Power Gen ) Restart Times in case of complete shutdown have been considered Weather Constraints such as cyclones have been considered impacting the operations

19 Slide 19 Main Assumptions TARGETS Production throughput target is 3 MTPA of LNG Production availability target is 90% for the full supply chain RELIABILITY DATA Failure rate from OREDA Failure mode has been adapted (Clean VS Normal Service, Type of mobilization required in case of failure ) Mean Time To Repair are issued from OREDA Active Repair Time CONTROL & SAFETY SYSTEMS MAINTENANCE & OPERATION Trips of transmitters linked to PCS, ESD, BDS and Alarms are not considered in the RAM model Trips of Pressure Safety Valves were not considered in the RAM model Trips of the facility Inlec systems are not included Trips of shutdown valves and of some control valves are included Preparation & Mobilisation times have been considered (BLNG input data) Sparing lead times have not been considered at this stage (Concept Stage) Planned Maintenances have been considered (Gas Turbine, Topside, FLNG Tank, Power Gen ) Restart Times in case of complete shutdown have been considered Weather Constraints such as cyclones have been considered impacting the operations Clean Service Failure Rates

20 Slide 20 Main Assumptions TARGETS Production throughput target is 3 MTPA of LNG Production availability target is 90% for the full supply chain RELIABILITY DATA Failure rate from OREDA Failure mode has been adapted (Clean VS Normal Service, Type of mobilization required in case of failure ) Mean Time To Repair are issued from OREDA Active Repair Time CONTROL & SAFETY SYSTEMS MAINTENANCE & OPERATION Trips of transmitters linked to PCS, ESD, BDS and Alarms are not considered in the RAM model Trips of Pressure Safety Valves were not considered in the RAM model Trips of shutdown valves and of some control valves are included Preparation & Mobilisation times have been considered (BLNG input data) Sparing lead times have not been considered at this stage (Concept Stage) Planned Maintenances have been considered (Gas Turbine, Topside, FLNG Tank, Power Gen ) Restart Times in case of complete shutdown have been considered Weather Constraints such as cyclones have been considered impacting the operations

21 Slide 21 Main Assumptions TARGETS Production throughput target is 3 MTPA of LNG Production availability target is 90% for the full supply chain RELIABILITY DATA Failure rate from OREDA Failure mode has been adapted (Clean VS Normal Service, Type of mobilization required in case of failure ) Mean Time To Repair are issued from OREDA Active Repair Time CONTROL & SAFETY SYSTEMS MAINTENANCE & OPERATION Trips of transmitters linked to PCS, ESD, BDS and Alarms are not considered in the RAM model Trips of Pressure Safety Valves were not considered in the RAM model Trips of shutdown valves and of some control valves are included Preparation & Mobilization times have been considered (FLNG input data) Sparing lead times have not been considered at this stage (Concept Stage) Planned Maintenances have been considered (Gas Turbine, Topside, FLNG Tank, Power Gen ) Restart Times in case of complete shutdown have been considered Weather Constraints such as cyclones have been considered impacting the operations

22 Slide 22 Main Assumptions SUBSEA Production profile per well including plateau & depletion phase Start up of the wells per phase Specific mobilization of the Support Vessels & MODU when required SHIPPING Berthing, Approach, Mooring, Unmooring and Departure Operations Maximum LNG Transfer rate of 10,000 m 3 /h (From FLNG to LNGC) Meteocean conditions LNGC Schedule and distribution depending on the size SENSITIVITY CASES Modification of the redundancy of some Process Gas Turbines Modification of the redundancy of some Generator Gas Turbines Simultaneous maintenance tasks performed on Liquefaction GTs Degraded mode implemented

23 Slide 23 Optimise Bureau Veritas RAM Software Optimise V3 software suite is used for reliability-based analysis of production and processing systems, combining Monte Carlo based RAM modelling with production profile, storage and shipping simulation to allow simulation of entire product supply chain Optimise V3 released in 2015 RAM simulation LNG business oriented Developed by Bureau Veritas from 1999 All energy sectors (mining, refining ) Onshore / Offshore Plant Optimization Gas/oil/condensate Contract Analysis Maintenance Strategy Development Preliminary Sparing Analysis Software compliant with ISO (Petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries - Production assurance and reliability management) Heavy lift Vessel Global 1200 (Courtesy Technip)

24 Slide 24 Main Results over the FLNG Supply Chain MAIN RESULTS Average Production Availability over 25 years: 90.18% Main Contributing Systems / Tasks FLNG Liquefaction (30%) Planned Maintenance (PM) of the Topsides (18%) Subsea Equipment (18%) FLNG topside restart due to unplanned shutdowns (6%)

25 Slide 25 Main Results over the FLNG Supply Chain MAIN RESULTS Main Solutions proposed to the design teams Gas Turbines & Compressor higher level of redundancy Change in type of equipment (electric motors instead of gas turbine) PM strategy modified to minimize downtime (partial shutdown VS simultaneous shutdown of equipment) Investigation of other intervention solutions than MODU for some failure modes (wireline solutions) Redundancy of equipment bringing the highest number of restart

26 Slide 26 Main Results over the FLNG Supply Chain Maintenance Utility Mobilization Frequency Multi Support Vessel Wellservicer (Courtesy Technip) Heavy lift Vessel Global 1200 (Courtesy Technip) MODU (Courtesy Seadrill)

27 Slide 27 The subsea system Benefits over the life of the field Subsea facilities systems Subsea control and safety systems 3 MTPA of LNG The FLNG installation has been designed to produce 3 million of ton per annum of LNG The FLNG system The transfer system Production turret swivel assembly Raw gas treatment systems Gas dehydration systems Liquefaction of dry gas Utility systems LNG storage side by side offloading 25 Years System life Installation has been designed to remain on site and produce for 25 years 90% Availability Production availability target of the FSC has been set at 90% by the project

28 Slide 28 Gain value from a well consolidated RAM model Conclusion Importance of expert opinion when it comes to new type of installation George E. P. Box Importance of workshop with operators and designers Adapt the level of the study to the level of the project Do not hesitate to propose a wide range of sensitivity cases Do not limit the RAM analysis to some parts of the installation RAM is a living process from design to decommissioning Gain knowledge on your own asset Process Engineer is rarely a RAM engineer Challenge the RAM experts «Essentially, all models are wrong but some of them are useful»

29 Slide 29 Final Message

30 Thank You It is now question time!