HAF AVIONICS Upgrades A Systems Engineering and Project Management Perspective LT.COL. ILIAS KONSOULAS, MSC, CENG, PMP, MIET

Transcription

1 A Systems Engineering and Project Management Perspective LT.COL. ILIAS KONSOULAS, MSC, CENG, PMP, MIET

2 A Systems Engineering and Project Management Perspective When you already know the answer for your Operational Problem, how do you find the correct questions to address it? Answer: How Things Should Be to Gain Tactical Advantage (known). Questions: What and How Should Be Done to reach that Advantageous Point (unknown).

3 A Systems Engineering and Project Management Perspective Topics Covered The Competitors Critical Success Factors Risk Identification (Threats and Opportunities) Project Scope Management Acquisition Phase Activities Collateral Benefits and Damages Logistics Support of the Final Product Lessons Learned

4 The Competitors Raytheon in partnership with BAE Systems proposed the Raytheon Air Combat Radar RACR aka AN/APG-84 AESA Radar. RACR is a scaled-down version of AN/APG-79 already operational on F/A- 18E/F Super Hornet and Boeing EA-18G Growler. The AN/APG-79 employs about 1100 GaAs Transmit/Receive Modules (TRM s) [3]. More Info about RACR can be found here.

5 The Competitors Northrop Grumman in partnership with Lockheed Martin Aeronautics proposed the Scalable Agile Beam Radar SABR aka AN/APG-83 AESA Radar. SABR is a scaled-down version of AN/APG- 81 AESA Radar installed on F-35 JSF (1200 T/R Modules [3]). The AN/APG-81 is also a scaled-down version of AN/APG-77 used on F-22 s. The latter one employs 1500 T/R Modules [3] Selected for USAF, Taiwan and S. Korea F-16 AVIONICS Upgrades. More Info about SABR can be found here.

6 Critical Success Factors Non-Technical Availability of relevant staff within the organization. (System Engineers and Project managers). Availability of Funds. Organizational Leadership Commitment. Capability and Readiness of National Defense Industry (to execute the Upgrade). Strict Implementation of the Program Master Schedule. If a new/upgraded system has a service life of 30 years and the whole fleet upgrade lasts 6 years, by the end of the program, the equipment of the last upgraded article will have spent 20% of its operational life waiting on the shelf!

7 Critical Success Factors Technical/Operational Is it a developmental or an already fielded system? Is the seller an established company in the defense industry? Is the seller the platform OEM? Did this company execute similar contracts recently? Has the new system been integrated and flight tested on this specific platform? Is Project Scope Management well defined?

8 Risk Identification Threats What is the commitment of higher state leadership/government to the program? What is the new upgraded radar s devaluation rate due to obsolescence? i.e. what is going to be its Net Dollar Value in 10 years after the completion of the program? What about its operational value in 10 years? What is the Maturity of the new avionics subsystem? If Experimental/Under Development then expect infant mortality issues. If Already fielded then it will be obsolete by the end of the upgrade program. What is the Contractor s Experience on similar programs. (South Korea, Taiwan). What is the Contractor s Solution on the existing Ground Support Equipment (GSE)? Upgrade or Condemn the existing Automatic Test Equipment (ATE)? What are the requirements on the support & maintenance manpower and their training?

9 Risk Identification Threats Are there any hidden upgrades anywhere in the operations/technical support/logistics system that are not identified early in the process? (e.g. GSE upgrades, new facility requirements, environmental concerns etc.). Has the contractor an established Obsolescence Management procedure? Is it reliable? How does the post-acquisition plan addresses the long-term sustainment of the system? E.g. What is the projected Follow-On Support cost for the first 10 years (cost of ownership). What type of contract is the contractor after? (FFP, CPFF, other?). This is a risk because the contractor may claim more funds after the contract is awarded.

10 Risk Identification Opportunities Configuration Management/Awareness Target I: Maximum Commonality. In HAF: To Homogenize 4 different AVIONICS suites to a single advanced one. Target II: Maximum Interoperability with other national/allied systems. Is the new configuration compatible with the existing national/nato air defense environment? A System-Of-Systems approach is required to maximize interoperability. Supply System Modernization Supply Chain Control Improvement.

11 Risk Identification Opportunities Follow On Support (FOS) Concerns. Experience suggests that it s best to negotiate the FOS contract in the context of the acquisition negotiations in order to minimize future sustainment cost. That is the time when your negotiation power is maximum. Companies are willing to sacrifice some profit to gain an enormous contract! This method also reduces significantly the overall bureaucratic procedure delays because everything is negotiated, decided, approved and signed only once. Perform Other Relevant Mid-Life Upgrades (MLUs) to Maximize the Future Availability of the Platform and Capitalize on the already unavoidable downtime. Execute Concurrently Airframe Structural Upgrades Execute Concurrently Engine Structural Upgrades.

12 Project Scope Management According to PMBOK Guide [1] Plan Scope Management Collect Requirements Define Scope Project Scope Statement (output) Product Scope Description Project Exclusions Acceptance Criteria Project Constraints Project Deliverables Project Assumptions Create WBS Validate Scope Control Scope Planning Monitor & Control

13 Project Scope Management Defining project scope is critical to the success of any project because it spells out exactly what the final product of the project looks like. Conversely, poor scope definition might lead to cost increase, rework, schedule delays and low morale.

14 Acquisition Phase Activities System Life Cycle Pre-acquisition Phase Acquisition Phase Utilization Phase Retirement Phase Conceptual Design Preliminary Design Detailed Design & Development Construction and/or Production Operational Use and System Support Diagram Reproduced from [2], page 16.

15 Acquisition Phase Activities Conceptual Design Preliminary Design Detailed Design & Development Construction and/or Production Business Needs and Requirements (BNR) Functional Baseline System Requirement Specification (SyRS) Allocated Baseline Development Specifications Product Baseline Product Specifications System Acceptance System Design Review Stakeholder (SDR) Needs and Requirements (SNR) Preliminary Design Review (PDR) Critical Design Review (CDR) Formal Qualification Review (FQR) Diagram Reproduced from [2], page 17.

16 Collateral Benefits Other long-needed upgrades may fit in the window of opportunity. (e.g. Structural, Support Equipment, Facilities, Infrastructure). Replaced Units/Test Equipment may be sold to allies who still use the old configuration thus reducing the overall upgrade cost. An opportunity for professional mentality upgrade for your personnel (this holds for everyone involved: Pilots, Engineers and Technicians).

17 Collateral Damages Necessary withdrawal of old configuration support and maintenance infrastructure is a source of extra cost in addition to that of the new AVIONICS systems. Old training and experience becomes irrelevant to a variable degree. Therefore, people need to be retrained and gain new more relevant experience. New more stringent environmental requirements for may lead to strict requirements for totally new facilities.

18 Logistics Support of Final Product The new system will present current and maybe previously unforeseen challenges for an existing supply chain. What is the new maintenance concept? 2 or 3-Level Maintenance? How far your operational bases are from production lines (length of supply chain)? What is the efficiency of your existing supply system? How is it going to accommodate the new systems requirements? What are the provisional stock levels for a guaranteed system availability? Integrated Logistics Support (ILS) was integrated in the design for a new AVIONICS suite that would operate on a platform in CONUS or in Europe?

19 Lessons Learned Money is not the only critical factor for program success (but lack of it, is a big risk). What an organization needs is Relevant Manpower and Experience (Project Managers, Systems Engineers and Subject Matter Experts). During their presentations, company delegates will not disclose any threats or risks. Timeframe of Execution is Essential (Start-to-Finish) for success. Contractor representatives suffer from the job candidate interview syndrome. They try their best to persuade you that: They can do everything, honestly, reliably and efficiently. At Minimum cost, On Schedule with Perfect Quality and No Risk. If they haven t done it before the Uncertainty of such a Program is Huge. If they have done it before, the Uncertainty of such a Program is Great but Acceptable.

20 Lessons Learned Unveiling the Product Gradually Radar manufacturers will not reveal all the operational details/capabilities of their system from the beginning for competition reasons. They will wait for customer s commitment. Once the customer is close to a decision, they will reveal some indicating operational parameters but again not the full story. Finally, the customer will have to take an educated decision based on figures of different performance metrics. The best way to choose among candidate radar systems is to perform independent, carefully designed operational capability flight tests. Some good references for designing such AESA radar flight tests are: i) J. M. Clifton, Introduction to AVIONICS Flight Test, AGARD-AG-300 Vol. 15, ii) R. E. McShea, Test and Evaluation of Aircraft Avionics and Weapon Systems, 2 nd Ed. SciTech Publishing, Edison NJ, 2014.

21 A Systems Engineering and Project Management Perspective Topics Covered The Competitors Critical Success Factors Risk Identification (Threats and Opportunities) Project Scope Management Acquisition Phase Activities Collateral Benefits and Damages Logistics Support of the Final Product Lessons Learned

22 References [1] A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, (PMBOK Guide), 5 th Ed., The Project Management Institute Inc., [2] Faulconbridge I., Ryan, M.J., Systems Engineering Practice, Argos Press, Canberra, Australia, [3] Defense Science Board Advisory Committee, Future DoD Airborne High- Frequency Radar Needs/Resources, (2001).

23 A Systems Engineering and Project Management Perspective Questions?