SPV Market Research Global Photovoltaic 2016 Shipments & Industry Balance April 2017

Transcription

1 1 SPV Market Research Global Photovoltaic 2016 Shipments & Industry Balance April 2017 Paula Mints

2 2 SPV Market Research Quality solar market research products release no analysis before the data are gathered, bias is eliminated, and objectivity is achieved Clients as partners working towards mutual success There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle. Albert Einstein

3 3 Research is a slow rigorous process that does not lend itself to sweeping conclusions. John Oliver, comedian, political commentator, television host and actor Anyone who thinks that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist. Economist Kenneth Boulding The market researcher s conundrum: Your analysis does not conform to my preconceived notions, so my gut instinct is telling me that you are wrong. Dilbert s Pointy Haired Boss Poet Antonio Machado: Sólo el necio confunde valor y precio (Only fools confuse value and price)

4 Industry Metrics

5 The Future, which does not exist 5 Though future growth is most interesting to industry observers and participants future behavior can only be assumed and should not be assumed purely on the belief that continued growth is a given.

6 2016 Supply/Demand China s government has indicated a slowdown in solar deployment for 2017 because of inadequate infrastructure. It is unlikely that the government will be able to control building. 6

7 2016 Module Assembly Capacity, Cell Capacity, Cell from in- house production shipments and Announced Shipments The size of the global PV industry is limited by the available commercial capacity to produce Crystalline and thin film semiconductor technology Currently the industry has GWp more module assembly capacity than cell capacity Due to outsourcing & double/triple counting announcements were GWp higher than actual Shipments to the first buyer in

8 Manufacturers shipping at least 3% of total in

9 9 Shipments by Region and Technology

10 Examples of Regional Market Supply and Demand 10

11 Shipments by Technology 11

12 12 Cell and Module Revenues

13 Cell/Module Revenues from In- House Production and Shipments 13

14 14 Crystalline and Thin Film Capacity

15 Regional Capacity Shares, 2015 and

16 Regional Module Assembly Capacity 16

17 17 Average Module Prices

18 Price and Cost Myths 18 Myth: That China is just better and more efficient at manufacturing Myth: That China s manufacturers do not receive that many subsidies Myth: That a 15% margin is healthy Myth: That the US stock market funded China s PV manufacturing Myth: That manufacturers are not compensating for low margins by sourcing less expensive and potentially lower quality starting material and components

19 Average Module Costs, Prices and Shipments, In 2016 the global module ASP was $0.53/Wp, with a low of $0.25/Wp and a high of $2.50/Wp

20 20 Paula Mints, Founder, Chief Market Research Analyst ,

21 21 Economist Kenneth Boulding said: Anyone who thinks that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.