Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets

Transcription

1 NCRRP Report 4 Pre-Publication Draft Subject to Revision Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets RSG, Inc. White River Junction, VT in association with Matthew Coogan White River Junction, VT AECOM New York, NY Icek Ajzen Amherst, MA Chandra Bhat Austin, TX Brian Lee Burlington, VT Megan Ryerson Philadelphia, PA Joseph Schwieterman Chicago, IL Submitted November 2015 DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this document are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the program sponsors; the Transportation Research Board; or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the authors. This material has not been edited by the Transportation Research Board. SPECIAL NOTE: This document IS NOT an official publication of the Transportation Research Board or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. A final, edited version of this document will be released at a later date.

2 2016 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research for this document was conducted through one or more programs administered by the Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) of the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine: Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) research is sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program (HMCRP) research is sponsored by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) research is sponsored by the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology. National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) research is sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). National Cooperative Rail Research Program (NCRRP) research is sponsored by the Federal Railroad Administration. Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) research is sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) in cooperation with the Transit Development Corporation. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply endorsement by TRB and any of its program sponsors of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER To facilitate more timely dissemination of research findings, this pre-publication document is taken directly from the submission of the research agency. The material has not been edited by TRB. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this document are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board, the Academies, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Rail Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. This pre-publication document IS NOT an official publication of the Cooperative Research Programs; the Transportation Research Board; or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Recommended citation: RSG, Inc., M. Coogan, AECOM, I. Ajzen, C. Bhat, B. Lee, M. Ryerson, and J. Schwieterman Intercity Passenger Rail in the Context of Dynamic Travel Markets. Pre-publication draft of NCRRP Report 4. Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.

3 Table of Contents Chapter One... 1 Introduction and Major Conclusions... 1 The Purpose of This Research...1 Project Objectives... 1 Setting and Context... 1 Need to Understand the Nature of Intercity Demand... 2 The Influence of Theory from Social Psychology 3 A Framework for Long- and Short-Term Preferences in the Choice of Rail... 3 What Are the Long-Term Values in the Analytical Framework?... 4 Why Would Anyone Create a Unified Model?... 5 Can the Future Market Context for Rail be Predicted? 5 What the Scenarios Revealed... 6 Differences between Millennials and Older Groups in the Four Values... 6 How Important Were Each of the Factors in the Explanation of Present Rail Choice?... 6 How Did the Four Future Scenarios Address These Issues?... 7 Do the Scenarios Suggest a Wide Range of Possible Future Market Contexts?... 8 Key Factors Identified in this Report 9 Why are These Alternative Future Scenarios Important? Additional Factors to Explore The Influence of One's Peers on the Selection of Intercity Mode 10 Hedonic Considerations in the Choice of Mode 11 Rail in a Competitive Dynamic Market What about the Competing Modes? What Is Happening to Travel Behavior as a Whole? The Chapter Structure of This Final Report Chapter Two: Previous Research, The Work Program, and The Collection of New Data The Strategy Behind the Work Program Highlights from the Project Bibliography Bibliography Theme 1: Trends and Differences by Generation Bibliography Theme 2: Long-Distance Transportation Issues Bibliography Theme 3: Attitude Theories Applied to Transportation Bibliography Theme 4: Hybrid Models to Integrate Attitudes Bibliography Theme 5: Environmental Motivations and Strategies Bibliography Theme 6: Information Technologies and the Productivity of Time Bibliography Theme 7: Application of Market Segmentation Techniques Data Collection Methodologies Data Collected to Support the Project s Goals Survey Sampling Frame and Eligibility Requirements Sampling Sources and Procedure 23 Data Cleaning and Sample Size 24 Additional Data Collection Additional Surveys Used in the Project Design of the Survey Instrument Data Needs for Activities in the Development of the Stated Preference Exercise 25

4 The Survey Instrument 26 Survey Respondent Sample Overview Demographics Characteristics of Recent Trip Attitudinal Variables Chapter Three Survey Results by Demographics, Region and Market Segment Relationship Between Key Demographic Categories and Survey Responses Results by Coastal Region Background Sample Characteristics by Coast Trip Characteristics and Attitudinal Differences by Coast 42 Latent Class Cluster Segmentation Methodological Overview and Benefits of Latent Class Analysis Results Predictive Variables 45 Overview of Results 47 Description of Clusters, Ranked from Most Receptive to Least Receptive to Rail Young Urbanites (11%) 47 Open to Rail (30%) 48 Curious but Cautious (15%) 48 Cars for Convenience (29%) 48 Rail Rejecters (15%) 49 Difference in Segment Composition, by Coast 49 Summary of the Market Segmentation Chapter Four Understanding Values, Preferences and Attitudes in the Choice of Rail Introduction and Structure Technical Appendix for Attitudinal Models 53 Part One: The NCRRP Attitudinal Model for Rail Four Factors Representing Long-Term Values 54 Values and Location 55 Short-Term Attitudes Factors and the Outcome Factor 55 Running the Attitudinal Model for Rail Interpreting the Results of the Attitudinal Model for Rail Exploring the Interactions Between/Among Factors Effect of Demographics 57 Effect of Longer-Term Values 58 Effect of Shorter-Term Attitudes 58 Conclusion: The Attitudinal Model for Choice of Rail Part Two: The Theory of Planned Behavior Model for Rail What is the Theory of Planned Behavior? Factors in the Rail TPB Model Model Fit 63 Results of the Theory of Planned Behavior Model... 63

5 Interpretation of Results, Total Sample Understanding Normative Influences in Mode Choice 64 Understanding Hedonic Influence in Mode Choice 64 Comparing Millennials with Older Respondents Conclusion: The TPB Chapter Five Merging Economic Modeling Theory with Analysis of Attitudes and Preferences 67 Part One: A Mode Choice Model with no Attitudes or Preferences Results: Times and Costs Part Two: The Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Modeling Background: Activities in the Development of the ICLV Furthering the State of the Practice in ICLV Modeling 71 Model Specification Key Explanatory Variables Latent Attitudes 73 Modal Constants 74 Model Results Model Fit Statistics and Value of Travel Time Measures Mode Constants Latent Attitudes Attitude Toward Privacy 78 Attitude Toward Auto Orientation 78 Attitude Toward Urbanism 79 Attitude Toward Information Technology 79 Summary and Conclusions Chapter Six Model Application for Scenario Analysis Introduction Chapter Structure 81 What Does the Tool Look Like? 81 The Four Illustrative Scenarios Sample Expansion and Initial Model Calibration Changing the Demographic Distributions 84 Changing Mode Travel Times and Costs 87 Changing Attitudinal Variables 88 Chapter Seven The Role of Rail in a Rural Market Rail and Bus Choice in the Smaller Corridors The University of Vermont Rural Intercity Transportation Survey Setting For the Rural Study 91 Methods Rural Intercity Survey Instrument 92 Intercity Travel Mode Distributions Components of the Rural Attitudinal Model Rural Attitudinal Model Estimation 95 Results... 95

6 Exploring Privacy and Safety in the Rural Survey 96 Conclusion for the Rural Corridor Market Chapter Eight Competition to Rail from Intercity Bus Introduction Previous Research on Intercity Bus Service Bus Diversions from Rail? Understanding the Role of Price 101 NCRRP Attitudinal Model for Intercity Bus Travel Content of the Model 103 Explanatory Factors for Taking Bus 103 Interpreting Results From the Bus Attitudinal Model Convenience and Price Convenience 104 Perceived Cost 104 Privacy and Safety Stress of Driving and Auto Orientation Urbanism and Urban Location Role of Information Technology Interpretation of Results from the Bus Attitudinal Model Lessons from the ICLV Model Modal Constants 110 Sources Chapter Nine Competition Between Rail and Air Structure of the Chapter Introduction Air/ Rail Diversion Model Background and Methodology Air/Rail Diversion Model Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Results Interpretation of the Variable Interactions Elasticity Case Study Example: NYC Boston Conclusion Chapter Ten Bringing It All Together: Where Do We Go from Here? Incorporating Uncertainty into the Planning Process How Do the Factors Interact? Major Themes Revealed Are Millennials a Market We Can Take for Granted? 129 Role of Auto Orientation 130 Role of ICT 130

7 Future Markets for Intercity Rail 130 Understanding Market Factors and Segments What are the Factors that Influence Intercity Mode Choice and How Do They Interact? _ 131 What are the Key Market Segments? 131 Aspects of Rail Service to Improve or Sell to Targeting Market Segments 132 Areas to Target to Grow Market for Rail 133 Conclusions About New Directions for Modeling Implications from the Project for Further Research Relationship to Issues in Rail Policy Planning Research About Refining Future Scenario Applications 135 Research About the Tradeoffs in Rail System Design 136 Research About ICT and Rail Service 136 Relationship with Larger Question of Transportation Demand Dealing with the Automobile 137 Acknowledging the Bus 137 Going Beyond Planning Understanding Marketing and Advertising 138