Critical negotiation in game production. Floris Bex Utrecht University

Transcription

1 Critical negotiation in game production Floris Bex Utrecht University

2 Today s workshop Negotiation parties have different interests reaching agreements

3 Today s workshop Introduction to simple negotiation Alternating offers Utility spaces Types of moves Critical negotiation Arguments for and against positions Making interests explicit Adjudication/mediation

4 Self-Interested negotiations We represent individual or organizational interests We act to further our own interests, possibly at expense of others Potential for conflict

5 A few central concepts Utility Maximum and minimum utility Measuring outcomes Various optimal outcomes Strategies Number of rounds Opponent models Types of moves

6 Outcomes of a negotiation Measurable Money, goods, land, time Harder to measure Hapiness, satisfaction

7 Utility How much you value certain outcomes u($1000) = 3, u($100) = 2, u($10) = 1 u($3800) = 3, u($3500) = 2, u(car)=2, u(no car)=0 Utilities lead to preferences over outcomes of a negotiation $1000 > $100 > $ 10 Salary $3500, car > Salary $3800, no car 7

8 Utility Boundaries and constraints on utility The maximum you can get Due certain agreements, the maximum salary for this job is 228,599 per year The lowest you will/can go I will never opt for a salary below $2000 Interplay between utilities We never give a car to someone who earns less than $4000 per month Assumption: no deal is worse than any other deal When no production costs -> inheritance, magically 8 appearing cake

9 Measuring outcomes Optimal outcomes of a game Depends on the viewpoint Dependent on the parties utilities But how do we measure? 9

10 Social welfare Social welfare measures the sum of all individual utilities Optimal social welfare may not be achievable when individuals are self-interested Individuals follow their own (different) utility function Social welfare only makes sense when all individuals have same owner For 100 players, outcome (101, 0, 0,,0) has higher SW than outcome (1, 1, 1,,1)

11 Pareto efficiency or optimality An outcome is Pareto optimal if a better outcome for one agent always results in a worse outcome for some other agent Pareto improvement: change that is an improvement for someone without hurting anyone

12 Pareto efficiency or optimality Pareto optimal: better outcome for one person always results in a worse outcome for some other person Not always useful for selecting outcomes: when dividing a cake between 2 persons, giving 1 person the whole cake is pareto optimal! Pareto improvement: change that is an improvement for someone without hurting anyone I do not want more than ¼ cake anyway, so I m happy for you to have ¾ instead of ½.

13 Utility of person 2 The negotiation set The negotiation set consists of the deals that are Pareto optimal and individual rational. A deal is individual rational if neither agent is worse off than in the original allocation Negotiation set Individual rational Conflict deal Utility of person 1

14 Types of moves Jonker, Hindriks, Wiggins Broekens 2012 (AI magazine)

15 Monotonic Concession Strategy Both players concede a little bit each time The dangers of getting it wrong: If you concede too often (or too much), then you risk not getting the best possible deal for yourself. If you do not concede often enough, then you risk conflict (which has utility 0).

16 Tit-for-tat strategy Match an opponent s move by a similar move Be nice: Start by cooperating, and reciprocate cooperation Retaliate appropriately: Always punish defection immediately, but use measured force don t overdo it Don t hold grudges: Always reciprocate cooperation immediately

17 Simple negotiation Problem with simple negotiation is that it makes assumptions we know exactly what our own and the opponent s utility function is there are no dependencies between elements Never mind the large amount of other complexities Emotions Multi-party negotiations & auctions

18 A simple assignment Situation: a developer and a publisher are negotiating about the next game The elements are budget, creative control, deadline, and royalties Both have no other options There is limited time to negotiate

19 A simple assignment With your team, assign 24 utility points to the following 12 elements Budget 10 million, 1 million, 100k Creative control full, half, none Deadline tight, normal, when it s done Royalties 50%, 10%, none

20 A simple assignment Pair up developer publisher Keep your utilities secret! Each team makes 5 offers in turn Each team starts first in turn Set your minimum utility Offer is made on piece of paper, no discussions!

21 Critical negotiation Critical negotiation includes arguments, altenative options and interests Instead of just positions (utility values) on certain topics (outcomes) Critical negotiation forces parties to think about why they have a certain preference Critical negotiation lets parties explain their goals and interests

22 Critical negotiation Parties should be clear about all aspects of the negotiation For themselves For their negotiating partners Topics and interests Conflicts and compatibility Options and arguments Conflicts and compatibility

23 Topic of the negotiation What are we talking about? Tax increase or winning an election? Giving the majority what they want or protecting minorities? The next game or our relation for the future? Topics are about the elements we negotiate about budget, royalties, deadline, creative freedom

24 Interests Interests the underlying goals of the participants e.g. royalty is important because we want to earn money Someone s position on a topic does not necessarily express their interest We want a large budget! Why do you want that? Because I want to spend a lot of money on marketing Because I want to pay my employees a high salary

25 Options Is there another way to satisfy the interests? I want high salaries for my employees What about a high royalty fee? Publisher: We build for PS4 Developer: I want to release on PC What if we find a way to do both?

26 Arguments Arguments are fundamentally about the reasons for (pro) and against (con) claims Critical negotiation is about giving reasons for your claims, and countering the other s reasons Why do you have that position, and how do your interests support these? What evidence do you have that your option will work? You have no evidence that higher royalties will cause employees to work harder

27 Defining your positions Clearly define your interests: what are your goals? Which negotiation topics (budget, creative freedom, royalties, deadline) are related to these interests? Can you think of other possible topics? What are the options for reaching those interests? What are the pros and cons of each of these options from your own perspective? Combinations of options? Pros and cons for the other party?

28 Defining your positions interest We want creative freedom interest We want to pay our employees a high salary

29 Defining your positions interest We want creative freedom option High budget (budget 10M) interest We want to pay our employees a high salary

30 Defining your positions interest We want creative freedom option High budget (budget 10M) option High royalties (50%) interest We want to pay our employees a high salary

31 Defining your positions interest We want creative freedom pro Salaries guaranteed option High budget (budget 10M) option High royalties (50%) interest We want to pay our employees a high salary con No guaranteed salary

32 Defining your positions interest We want creative freedom pro Salaries guaranteed option High budget (budget 10M) option High royalties (50%) interest We want to pay our employees a high salary Less risk for publisher No guaranteed salary

33 Defining your positions pro Salaries guaranteed option interest We want creative freedom option High budget (budget 10M) option interest We want to pay our employees a high salary High creative freedom High royalties (50%) Less risk for publisher No guaranteed salary

34 Possible roles Let s try to find a sensible solution for both of us! I do not care about the current topics, I want to negotiate about something else! We will not be moved! Never! I m not telling you my reasons!

35 Negotiation moves Stating a position Stating an interest Proposing alternative options Stating an argument pro or con Questioning a position, interest, option Why do you want that? Questioning argument Why is that a good thing? Do you have evidence for that?

36 A critical negotiation Situation: a developer and a publisher are negotiating about the next game The starting elements are budget, creative control, deadline, and royalties Ask lecturer if other elements can be added Both have no other options There is limited time to negotiate Negotiate based on your interests and options using any of the available moves