Help guide ABB Ability Renewable Insights

Transcription

1 ISSUED JULY 2018 Help guide ABB Ability Renewable Insights This guide contains essential information needed to operate Renewable Insights. Find tab-by-tab explanations of each dashboard including descriptions and views of its functions and capabilities. Click on page numbers to navigate Contents Page Tool access 2 User profile 2 Spatial Awareness tab 2-6 Legend 2 Zoom/pan 3 Imagery 3 Reference layers 3 Transmission lines 4 Substations 4 Units 4 Historic Prices tab 5-9 Filters 6 Grids and line/bar charts 7 Flash cards and radial charts 8-9 Forecast Prices tab Filters 11 Grids and line/bar charts 12 Flash cards and radial charts 13 Gross Revenue Projections tab Filters 15 Grids and line charts 16 Flash cards and radial charts 17 Competition and Permits tab Permits for [State] 19 County interconnections 19 Interconnection queue: [Independent System Operator] 20 Power Transactions tab Filters 22 Buyers within 50 miles 23 Total transaction charge by buyer and seller 23 Power transactions 23 Support 24

2 2 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Tool access Please see the ABB Ability Renewable Insights installation guide Titles The top right corner of the tool will always show the Source Node name, which represents the node associated with the project site, and the Sink Node name, which represents the delivery point or hub where the energy may be delivered. This helps users to keep all projects organized while conducting analysis. User Profile The User Profile allows users to log out or choose different sites. Spatial Awareness tab The spatial awareness tab displays geographic information within a 10 mile / ~16 km radius from the selected source node. This information includes infrastructure, ownership, territories, restricted lands and more. This tab supports the interconnection engineering process for interconnection analysis and evaluation of infrastructure with competing projects. Legend The legend identifies any themes applied to any active layers within the map. Users may scroll to review all layers and items that are currently activated. The legend can be turned on and off by selecting the edit button in the top right corner of the map and then by clicking on the switch under the Map sub-tab.

3 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 3 Pin details window to top right corner of map Close window Item type Details Scroll through stacked items Zoom to location Select from list of stacked items Metadata ABB has included metadata for all items within the map. Click on the item to open the metadata window. This window holds attributes, ownership and other relevant details regarding the item. Zoom / Pan Users can pan through the map by clicking and dragging. Users can zoom in by double clicking on the map, scrolling up or down on the mouse wheel, or by clicking on the zoom in/out buttons at the top left corner of the map. Imagery Background map imagery can be changed by selecting the edit button and clicking on the Imagery option under the Map sub tab. Imagery views include: Streets, Satellite, Hybrid, Topographic, Terrain, Gray, Dark Gray, Navigation. Reference layers Reference Layers are designed to help supplement analysis. These layers can be turned on and off by using the switches, and opacity can be changed by using the sliding scale. Source and Sink: These are the price node locations for the Source (the location of the project) and the Sink (the hub or delivery location selected) Industrial Facilities: ABB collects a variety of industrial facilities from the Environmental Protection Agency. These may be potential off-takers for energy. NOTE: ABB collects many of these facilities, but more may exist. Ownership types IOU Investor Owned Utility FederalU Federal Utility IO Investor Owned Federal Federally Owned MuniU Muni G&TCoopU DistCoopU Municipal Utility Municipally Owned Generating and Transmitting Cooperative Utility Distributing Cooperative Utility StateU State Private Other Unknown State Utility State Owned Privately Owned Other Ownership Unknown Ownership Coop Cooperative PSubdivU Political Subdivision Utility Utility Service Territories: ABB analysts research and map electric service territories for all utilities in the United States. Class 1 Lands: These borders highlight federal class 1 lands such as national parks, national wilderness areas and national monuments, which are granted special air quality protections under the 162(a) section of the Clean Air Act. State Lands: These are owned by state governments. Federal Lands: These are areas owned by the federal government.

4 4 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Transmission lines Transmission lines can be turned on or off with the switch. Their opacity can be changed with the sliding bar. The map can also filter transmission lines based on their voltage class. Users can add lines by clicking in the dialogue box and selecting the voltage class. Lines can be removed by clicking on the x within the voltage class items already selected. Substations These can be turned on or off with the switch. Their opacity can be changed with the sliding bar. The substations can also be filtered based on their maximum voltage, or the voltage of the largest transmission line that connects to the substation. The slider will automatically eliminate voltages above or below when the ends are moved. Units These can be turned on or off with the switch. Their opacity can be changed with the sliding bar. The units can be filtered on a variety of parameters Nameplate Capacity: This slider will add or remove units based on their nameplate capacity in Megawatts. Fuel: The fuel grouping allows users to view only the units that they want. You can add units from the list by clicking in the dialogue box, or remove them by clicking the x next to any selected fuels. Fuel Sub-Category finds the best level of fuel aggregation. This won t go as granular as Bituminous Coal or as high-level as Fossil. Operating Status: This is the status of the unit. This filter allows users to narrow their view to only the plants that they want to see, but allows users to view all plants that are operating, planned, canceled or retired in this area.

5 Historic Prices tab HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 5 The Historic Prices tab aims to support business development and financial assessment for the site. This tab populates with 5 years of hourly LMP history for the Source and Sink nodes that were selected. The Source node populates with 5 years of prices and components. The tab also populates with 5 years of history for the Source LMP versus the Sink LMP to measure hub basis risk. All information can be filtered for different time views, can be aggregated for different statistical measures, and can be aggregated for different time granularities. The bottom row of visuals is designed to quickly aggregate hourly values for specific types of analysis like negative hour congestion, which may represent curtailments, or basis hours with a positive spread only. All data can be downloaded to.csv format. Filters Grids and line/bar charts Flash cards and radial charts

6 6 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Filters Filtering allows for quick and easy manipulation for large amounts of LMP data. All filters have a select all / deselect all option. Date range: The date range filter allows for easy date begin and end selection with a sliding bar. This filter also allows for manual date entry. Hour of day: This filter is for quick filtering on specific and custom times of the day. It works very well for following expected generation patterns. Month of year: This filters down the months of pricing. It works well for tracking pricing during shoulder months or more extreme times of the year. Peak type: This allows users to quickly look at different peaks as defined by the Independent System Operator. Keeping both on will show all hours. Year: This filter allows users to remove extreme years. Market: While many projects are most concerned with real time pricing, there are options to analyze both markets. View: View filters allow users to aggregate the information to different time intervals and statistical measures. Granularity: Aggregate price information to Annual, Monthly, Daily, Hourly, or Month of Year or Hour of Day for detailed understanding of pricing patterns. Aggregation: When prices are aggregated to different time intervals, users are still able to track minimums, maximums, sums, averages, standard deviations, and counts.

7 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 7 Grids and Line/Bar Charts The details of the LMP data help users identify and understand pricing for their price nodes as a Source and Sink. This data is available in grid format with a corresponding chart to visualize the prices. All images can be expanded to a larger window by clicking on the arrow in the top right corner of the visual. Site LMP Components Grid: This grid displays LMP prices with components for the Source node, or the location of the renewable project. Conditional formatting can be turned on or off by clicking on the formatting button in the top right corner of the gird. These grids will update based on the filtering applied in the top row of the tab. -- Energy Price: This is the market-wide cost for energy generation. This is the price determined by the marginal unit of generation rolled to an hourly or greater level. -- Loss Price: The loss price is reported by most, but not all, ISOs. This represents the cost associated with energy transfer and the loss of energy that may occur. -- Congestion Price: This pricing represents the cost on the grid for an imbalance of energy between differing points. Positive congestion may indicate a market signal for more energy needed at this point. Negative congestion may indicate a market signal for less energy at this site. This is especially important for generating at a specific site because negative congestion could be an indicator of potential curtailments. NOTE: congestion pricing can also be used in other ways, which may not always indicate true curtailment. -- LMP Price: Energy + Loss + Congestion = Locational Marginal Price. This is the ultimate price reported for each location. This value is the best indicator for what a project may see in payments from the energy market. It is also the best justification for financial analysis at a site without a market simulation. Site LMP Components Chart: This chart visualizes all LMP components for the specific filtered time frame and based on the granularity and aggregations applied. Energy, Loss and Congestion are displayed at stacked bar charts with the total LMP price charted as a line. Like the grid, this visual can be expanded for a larger view. NOTE: Hourly and Daily analysis loads too much data to make a useful chart. When selecting this level of granularity, you will see a notice pop up in the top right part of the visual that indicates this fact. To keep the visual useful the tool shows the most recent 180 records.

8 8 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Site to Hub Basis Spread Grid: This grid operates similarly to the Site LMP Components Grid, but shows different data. This grid displays the Source [LMP] Price, the Sink [LMP] Price, and the Spread between the two prices. This is represented as Sink Source = Spread. We display the LMP data this way because many PPA off-takers will request to contract the energy through a liquid hub. To hedge against this a project must assess the difference between the price of energy where they generate and where the ultimate Sink site may be. Site to Hub Basis Spread Chart: This chart displays information much like the LMP Components Chart, but with spread information. Source LMP and Sink LMP are displayed on the primary Y axis as line charts with the spread displayed as a bar chart on the secondary Y axis. Data Download: All data from the selected tab can be downloaded in full, hourly structure by clicking on the download button at the top right of the screen. -- Data will download in.csv format. Grids and Line/Bar Charts The final set of visuals are designed for specific and custom analysis of hourly values. These are designed to support analysis of only congestion as well as more details on the spread. We ve created these visuals because these are some of the most common topics that renewable companies discuss when analyzing historical pricing as it pertains to project risks. These visuals will update based on all filters EXCEPT for the Granularity filter. Instead, they are always referencing hourly data. [Aggregation] of Hourly Congestion Prices: These flashcards measure the congestion prices at the Source node for either All Hours of the time period and only those with negative Hours. This allows users to track the expectation of potential curtailment signals, which is often measured by the count of hours with negative congestion and the sum of the negative congestion during the time period.

9 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 9 [Aggregation] of Congestion Price by Hour: This radial chart shows 24 hours of the day and tracks the congestion price by each hour. This allows users to see the expected congestion daily in a different way while they compare this to their generation profile at the site. NOTE: the radial axis can show negative or positive values. [Aggregation] of Hourly Path Spread: These flash cards measure the spread between the Source and the Sink for all hourly records in the time period. It shows the spread for all hours available as well as only the hours with positive spread. This helps users to identify the magnitude of spreads when they are positive or negative while tracking this against the overall spread. [Aggregation] of Spread by Hour: This radial chart shows the spread by every hour of the day to allow users to measure when the most favorable or least favorable spreads may occur. Similar to the congestion radial chart, these can be positive or negative.

10 10 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Forecast Prices tab The Forecast Prices tab leverages the industry-leading fundamental forecast from ABB s Advisors. This forecast is unbiased, forecasts market clearing prices for the zone where the Source node resides, and will estimate prices out for 25 years. This is updated every six months (usually in spring and fall). This tab shows the forecast down to a monthly granularity. More detailed forecasts for all North American zones, and a comprehensive report can all be purchased from ABB separately. The forecast includes a base scenario along with other market scenarios to account for uncertainty in the markets. These additional scenarios often account for higher than expected or lower than expected fuel prices or other market influences such as emissions taxes, stronger generation penetrations, or other regulatory influences. This data cannot be downloaded in its most detailed granularity, but can be purchased as part of the North American Power Reference Case. Filters Grids and line/bar charts Flash cards and radial charts

11 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 11 Filters Filtering has been designed to allow for quick and easy manipulation for large amounts of forecast data. All filters have a select all / deselect all option. Date Range: The date range filter allows for easy date begin and end selection with a sliding bar. This filter also allows for manual date entry. Month of Year: This allows users to filter down the months of pricing. It works well for tracking pricing during shoulder months or more extreme times of the year. Year: This filter allows users to remove extreme years if they desire. Peak Type: This allows users to quickly look at different peaks as defined by the Independent System Operator. Since the data is aggregated in the back end there isn t a simple All Hours average from pure hourly records. To account for this, we calculate the weighted average of the hourly records and added an additional radial option for all hours called Average. View: View filters allow users to aggregate the information to different time intervals and statistical measures. -- Granularity: Aggregate price information to Annual and Monthly, or Month of Year for detailed understanding of pricing patterns. -- Aggregation: When prices are aggregated to different time intervals, users are still able to track minimums, maximums, sums, averages, standard deviations, and counts.

12 12 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Grids and Line/Bar Charts The details of the forecast data are designed to help users identify and understand where pricing is expected to go for the zone surrounding their price nodes far into the future. This data is available in grid format with a corresponding chart to visualize the prices. All images can be expanded to a larger window by clicking on the arrow in the top right corner of the visual. [Granularity] [Aggregation] Forecast Prices: This grid displays forecast prices for the time period being analyzed and includes the prices pivoted for all scenarios of the forecast. We included the number of hours in each time period (month / peak type) to account for summing the values. This allows users to easily calculate the total sum of hourly values for their analysis. Conditional formatting can be turned on or off by clicking on the formatting button in the top right corner of the gird. These grids will update based on the filtering applied in the top row of the tab. -- Scenarios: The different scenarios account for market uncertainty and can change from release to release. These are designed to account for the largest market influences at the time of the forecast. The Base scenario will always resemble the current market conditions. Emission tax scenarios will account for a potential tax on different emissions and its impact on the production costs for certain units and subsequent market prices. Fuel cost scenarios will account for variable fuel costs and their impact on the production costs for certain units and subsequent market prices. By purchasing the North American Power Reference Case, users can receive the full forecast for all zones in North America along with a comprehensive report that details all assumptions made for these forecasts. ABB Ability Renewable Insights users can take our word for it. This forecast is detailed, and our Advisors have accounted for almost everything that would impact the grid (individual unit generation, costs, transmission builds, new builds, retirements, varying markets, etc.) [Granularity] [Aggregation] Zonal Forecast Prices Chart: This chart visualizes all forecast market clearing prices for each scenario. These are all represented as line charts that offer a high-level understanding of the expectations and changes in each forecast.

13 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 13 Flash cards and radial charts The final set of visuals are designed to quickly aggregate scenario values for the big-picture analysis. [Aggregation] of Scenario: These flashcards aggregate the values based on the applied filtering. They are designed to show users the overall impact and difference in clearing price based on each forecast scenario. [Aggregation] of Scenario by Month: This radial chart helps users understand the difference in prices by month of year. Here users can determine which months expect the highest and lowest prices far into the future.

14 14 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Gross Revenue Projections tab The Gross Revenue Projections tab is designed to support project assessment with basic, but detailed, revenue analysis. The tool calculates aggregated Locational Marginal Price (LMP) data for historic years. It compares this information to forecast prices to determine how this location s pricing differs from the zonal price forecast. Then the differential is applied to forecast prices and calculated based on the expected size of the project and modeled NREL generation profiles that ABB has identified for each area. This allows users to get estimates for project financials depending on type of generator placed at this site by time of year and peak type. Because of the variation in project costs, this is only a gross projection instead of a net projection. All data can be downloaded in.csv format. Filters Grids and line/bar charts Flash cards and radial charts

15 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 15 Filters: Filtering has been designed to allow for quick and easy manipulation for large amounts of forecast data. All filters have a select all / deselect all option. Date Range: The date range filter allows for easy date begin and end selection with a sliding bar. This filter also allows for manual date entry. Month of Year: This allows users to filter down the months of pricing. It works well for tracking pricing during shoulder months or more extreme times of the year. Year: This filter allows users to remove extreme years if they desire. Peak Type: This allows users to quickly look at different peaks as defined by the Independent System Operator. Since the data is aggregated in the back end there isn t a simple All Hours average from pure hourly records. To account for this, we calculate the weighted average of the hourly records and added an additional radial option for all hours called Average. View: View filters allow users to aggregate the information to different time intervals and statistical measures. -- Granularity: Aggregate price information to Annual and Monthly, or Month of Year for detailed understanding of pricing patterns. -- Aggregation: When prices are aggregated to different time intervals, users are still able to track minimums, maximums, sums, averages, standard deviations, and counts.

16 16 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Grids and Line/Bar Charts The details of the forecast data are designed to help users identify and understand where pricing is expected to go for the zone surrounding their price nodes far into the future. This data is available in grid format with a corresponding chart to visualize the prices. All images can be expanded to a larger window by clicking on the arrow in the top right corner of the visual. [Granularity] [Aggregation] of Revenue Projections Grid: This grid displays the revenue projections for each technology by any time interval selected. The pricing calculations are the same, but the generation profiles will differ based on technology as it is modeled by NREL. This information can have conditional formatting applied. [Granularity] [Aggregation] of Revenue Projections Chart: This chart presents the corresponding grid values as a line chart for better data analysis. This information pivots values by technology type.

17 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 17 Flash cards and radial charts The final set of visuals are designed to quickly aggregate scenario values for the big-picture analysis. [Aggregation] of Technology: These flash cards show the full aggregation of the data for the Aggregation and Granularity selected. There is one per technology. [Aggregation] of Revenue by Fuel and Month: This radial chart presents the revenue values by technology for each month of the year in the filtered timeline.

18 18 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Competition and Permits tab The Competition and Permits tab allows users to assess the interconnection queue reported by the Independent System Operator for counties within a 10-mile radius of their interconnection area. ABB analysts map this information to specific substations and generator names to enhance the analysis for end users. This tab also displays potential permits that may be needed for the project based on the state where it will be built. Our team researches permits needed by individual power plants while also researching general permits that may be needed. While this won t tell you exactly what permits you need for your project, it will help you understand what permits other power plants needed, what permits you still may need, and who to contact to get the process moving. All data can be downloaded to.csv format. Permits grid Interconnection queue map Interconnection queue grid

19 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 19 Permits for [State]: This grid is designed to help users see any permits that have been needed by existing plants in the area. It also shows other potential permits and authorities that our team have found in our research. All items can be filtered by typing into the ranges above each column. Authority: This is the name of the entity that issues or approves the permit. Permit Type: We attempt to aggregate necessary permits into different categories for better understanding. Fuel: The main fuel for the project is included to allow users to see all permits that have been needed in this state, but with the ability to filter out those that they may not see as necessary. It also allows users to identify the major permits that our team has found associated with similar projects. County: In some cases our research analysts can even find the specific county where the permit was needed. This field could be blank, but if our team has found any pertinent information it is included. County Interconnections: This interactive map allows users to see counties within a 10-mile radius of their interconnection site. These counties are themed based on the number of Megawatts currently in the Interconnection Queue. By clicking on the county users can see the name of the county and a pie chart breakdown of what fuel types are making up the capacity in the Interconnection queue. Click on the pie chart to display fuel type details.

20 20 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Interconnection Queue [Independent System Operator]: We have included all relevant details from the ISO Interconnection Queue where this project is scheduled to interconnect. These details often cover application statuses, project details, project and point names, as well as dates and position details. This information differs by Independent System Operator. Where applicable, ABB ties the project name or interconnection point back to relevant power plants or substations. This allows end users to review the Spatial Awareness tab in more detail if they choose. We have included this information as a separate tab with a separate supporting map because there is not always a clear substation and there may not even be a connection point at all in certain cases.

21 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 21 Power Transactions tab The Power Transactions tab allows users to see the major purchasers of wholesale power within a 50-mile radius of this desired location. This data is reported to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by selling companies who report on the assets that they operate. The goal of this tab is to allow users to review purchases made by major load serving entities. This can be the best representation for the price of power. Users can analyze who is buying the power, who is selling, how the transaction is structured, the point and zone of delivery, how much power was purchased and for what cost. We chose to include this analysis for the last four quarters of reports, because it adds transparency into all types of transactions beyond what can be reviewed just in and Independent System Operator. It also allows users to better understand how their potential power purchase agreement may compare to other transactions in this area. NOTE: there are commonly also separate corporate or industrial purchasers who feed energy to a specific site. Our goal is to give users data on the largest purchasers for clarity into most transactions in the area. All data can be downloaded to.csv format. More detail can be found for all data points in this tab in the FERC EQR Data Dictionary. Filters Transactions map Transactions tree chart Transactions grid

22 22 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS Filters Filtering has been designed to allow for quick and easy manipulation for large amounts of transaction data. All filters are designed as drop-downs to allow for large numbers of filter options. Each filter supports Choose all or Choose none to expedite the selection process. All filters will update the Map, the Tree Chart and the Grid. Buyers: The Buyers filter allows users to select only specific purchasing entities from the list. We have selected all major purchasers, who are commonly load serving entities. These represent some form of utility (investor owned, federal, municipality, political subdivision, cooperative, etc). Sellers: The Sellers filter allows users to select only specific selling companies from the list. These are not individual power plants unless the reporting company only operates the one plant, or has created a specific company to represent the plant. In other words, each seller could represent multiple generation facilities. They do have to report fuel type, which helps to decipher more detail. Delivery Balancing Authority: This is the Balancing Authority area (formally called NERC Control Area) where the product is delivered and transmission service ends. Delivery Specific Locations: This represents the specific location where the product is delivered. Respondents are given some liberty in how they respond to this, so the PODSL can be a specific substation, a price node (LMP), or can be a hub or zone. We attempt to map these names to more consistent points, but it is difficult to completely confirm these. Year-Quarters: These are the different quarters for reported data. Product Names: Products are the different forms of service that can be sold. The most common product is Energy, but a complete list of products and descriptions can be found in the FERC EQR Data Dictionary in Appendix A. Rate Unit Codes: These are the measures for the product sold. Many markets have standardized $/MWh (dollars per Megawatt hour), but contracts and transactions can be structured in various ways. The complete list of Rate Units and descriptions can be found in the FERC EQR Data Dictionary in Appendix F. Increments: These explain the length of time associated with the transaction term. The complete list of increments and descriptions can be found in the FERC EQR Data Dictionary under Field #61.

23 HELP GUIDE RENEWABLE INSIGHTS 23 Buyers within 50 miles This interactive map allows users to see which utilities spend the most on power products within 50 miles of this area. Their service territory is highlighted and colored based on total transaction charge in the last four quarters. Users can click on the map to see the name of the company and their total transaction charge. Total Transaction Charge by Buyer and Seller This tree chart aggregates the transaction data. The colors represent the largest purchasers. These groupings also have borders to represent the largest sellers to this buyer. Holding the mouse over the square will bring up item help for the buyer name, the seller name, and the total transaction charge for that pair. Power Transactions This grid highlights the details of the power transactions for the last four quarters. This includes the buyer of power, year and quarter of the data, seller, class name, product name, increment for the transaction, locational details for balancing authority area and specific location, price, rate unit, quantity purchased and total transaction charge. Details for these items can all be viewed with descriptions in the FERC EQR Data Dictionary. Conditional formatting can be applied to the transaction charge column.

24 ABB Ability TM Renewable Insights us.marketplace.ability.abb Service If you have issues logging in to the tool or accessing your information please contact our customer support: 9AKK107046A4746 Copyright 2018 ABB. All rights reserved. Specifications subject to change without notice.