Asia/Pacific Printer Forecast 2002 Scenarios: 3Q02

Transcription

1 Forecast Analysis Asia/Pacific Printer Forecast 2002 Scenarios: 3Q02 Abstract: Printer shipments in Asia/Pacific grew 10.6 percent in the first half of The outlook for the second half of the year is marginally better. By Lai-Ling Lam Strategic Forecast Statements Asia/Pacific printer shipments will grow to million in 2002, a 14.6 percent increase from Asia/Pacific printer spending will reach US$3.07 million in 2002, a marginal 1.4 percent increase over Stronger-than-expected demand in the first half of 2002 is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with the growing interest in digital imaging products and the growing PC market. At the same time, cautious spending in the uncertain global economy will inhibit growth. Publication Date:October 9, 2002

2 2 Asia/Pacific Printer Forecast 2002 Scenarios: 3Q02 Market Overview The Asia/Pacific printer market rebounded strongly in the first half of 2002 after a dismal performance in The first quarter saw printer shipments grow 4.9 percent. Shipments gained momentum and increased 16.4 percent to reach 3.6 million units in the second quarter of This impressive growth was driven by recovering regional economies and burgeoning demand from the small office/home office (SOHO) segment and the strong PC market. However, price erosion caused first-half end-user spending to fall to US$1.5 billion, a 3.6 percent decline from the same period in What is Fueling Growth in Asia/Pacific? Demand from the private sector was stronger than expected in the first half and is expected to continue into the second half. Printer PC bundling will continue to be the main marketing strategy to move low-end inkjets in the second half of PC bundling is one of the quickest methods of penetrating the consumer marketplace and has been commonplace in all Asia/Pacific countries. In China, Legend managed to lead the inkjet market, primarily because a majority of its printers are bundled with its own PCs. HP, Lexmark and Canon have gained considerable sales progress in China's inkjet market through similar strategies. The relationship was so strong that inkjet shipments in 2001 were badly affected, somewhat as a result of sluggish home PC sales. However, PC bundling has its shortcomings. It runs the risk of unscrupulous resellers unbundling the products and dumping printers at low prices. This could trigger another price war, which would be devastating for the industry. The growing popularity of digital cameras has led consumers to print more photos at home. Taking advantage of this new market opportunity and growing demand, vendors are offering a variety of products, such as photo printers and direct printers. Epson is the undisputed leader in this area; in Hong Kong, almost 45 percent of Epson printers sold are from the Photo series. In Australia, New Zealand and Singapore, the proportion of photo printers has shown encouraging growth. HP jumped on the bandwagon by revamping its PhotoSmart Series and launched it amid a fanfare of publicity. This underlines the growing importance of the photo market in Asia/Pacific. At the same time, the availability of affordable flatbed all-in-one (AIO) products has seen growing demand from SOHOs in mature countries such as Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore. However, sales are as yet too small to make a significant impact on single-function printers. The monochrome page printer market has enjoyed double-digit growth quarter after quarter since 1999, despite regional economic problems.

3 While other regions such as United States, Western Europe and Japan saw lethargic demand for this segment; the computerization of small businesses and the need for better price/performance printers in the office has spurred the demand for the monochrome laser in the Asia/Pacific region. In 2002, Gartner Dataquest forecasts laser printers to continue their double-digit growth and sees no letdown in the second half of Forecast Scenarios Most Likely Scenario In this scenario, the regional economy is expected to continue on a growth path. However, concerns about the uncertainty of the U.S. economy will cause both business to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward IT purchasing. The bulk of the growth will come from immature markets such as China, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. Countries that suffered badly in the second half of 2001, such as Australia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, are expected to spring back to double-digit growth in the second half of 2002, primarily attributable to a smaller base for the second half of The page segment should continue its steady growth in the second half. The increased price-performance of page printers has fueled demand from small offices. Many of these buyers are converts from inkjet. Local government initiatives to boost IT use in business and home would continue to boost the printer market. Based on these assumptions, the Asia/Pacific printer market will most likely to grow 14.2 percent in unit shipments and 1.4 percent in end-user spending. Best-Case Scenario A strong, quick turnaround in the U.S. economy and stock market will help boost Asia/Pacific economies. Consumer and business confidence will be strengthened, thus creating higher printer demand. In the best-case scenario, Gartner Dataquest will also take the following factors into considerations: After much delay, the Golden Tax Project in China will finally take off in the second quarter of About 100,000 units of dot matrix are planned to be installed for bill printing purposes by the end of the year. Faster uptake in the replacement market, as enterprises opt for the faster lasers to replace their aging printer fleet Stronger-than-expected growth in the home PC market, propelling inkjet shipments to new heights. Under such circumstances, we project the printer market will grow by 17.9 percent in unit shipments and 4.9 percent in end-user spending.

4 4 Asia/Pacific Printer Forecast 2002 Scenarios: 3Q02 Worst-Case Scenario Intheworst-casescenario,thefollowingissueswillaffecttheAsia/Pacific printer market: U.S. economy takes a turn for the worse, suppressing economic growth in Asia/Pacific countries. Consumer and business spending fall back to 2000/2001 level. The growing awareness and recognition of the benefits of the AIO segment have a worse-than-expected-impact on the single function printer market. Planned government purchases are put on hold. In the worst-case scenario, the printer market will still grow at 11.2 percent to 13.8 million units. Table 1 and Figure 1 show Asia/Pacific printer forecast by unit and revenue for the first three quarters of The first-half data are actual, while the second-half data are forecasts. Gartner Dataquest Perspective The Asia/Pacific printer market has become an important region in the worldwide market, accounting for about 22 percent of worldwide printer shipments in the second quarter of It is estimated with growth at this level, and given the large population base, Asia/Pacific could compete for second position with Western Europe in the next couple of years. The printer market has entered a stage of maturity, because there is little differentiation in product offerings among the vendors. Inkjet prices have dropped so low that is economically feasible to replace a printer when its ink runs dry, rather than to replace the ink cartridge. Price is still considered a key purchasing factor in cost-conscious economies, but reliability, availability, innovation, service and support will determine the market leaders. Gartner Dataquest Recommendations Gartner Dataquest recommends the following for printer vendors: Price is not the be-all, end-all factor End users are demanding valueadded propositions such as good and reliable support. Continue to work with PC vendors to tap first time buyers. Printer vendors that sell to the consumer channel, but have no flatbed AIO market, should consider bringing such products to market. For the replacement market, offer buyback programs to generate repeated sales. Good post-sale services, flexibility in warranty agreements and financial arrangements will retain loyal customers. Vendors should provide document-management solutions and professional services.

5 5 Target and develop vertical markets such as insurance, banking and finance, and government and education for color page growth. Key Issue Table Asia/Pacific Printer Forecast What is the size of the output device market? Most Likely Forecast 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 Units 3,378,489 3,637,753 3,515,589 3,658,044 Dot Matrix 413, , , ,369 Inkjet 2,405,182 2,644,564 2,548,690 2,594,206 Page 556, , , ,273 Others 2,620 2,236 2,843 3,196 Quarterly Change (%) End-User Spending (US$M) Quarterly Change (%) Best-Case Forecast Units 3,378,489 3,637,753 3,679,010 3,953,578 Dot Matrix 413, , , ,369 Inkjet 2,405,182 2,644,564 2,650,638 2,797,673 Page 556, , , ,340 Others 2,620 2,236 2,843 3,196 Quarterly Change (%) End-User Spending (US$M) Quarterly Change (%) Worst-Case Forecast Units 3,378,489 3,637,753 3,367,229 3,434,534 Dot Matrix 413, , , ,095 Inkjet 2,405,182 2,644,564 2,395,769 2,454,165 Page 556, , , ,277 Others 2,620 2,236 2,443 2,996 Quarterly Change (%) End User Spending($M) Quarterly Change (%) Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2002)

6 6 Asia/Pacific Printer Forecast 2002 Scenarios: 3Q02 Figure 1 Most Likely Printer Forecast, 2002 Units 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Millions of U.S. Dollars Shipments End-User Spending 1,000, , Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2002) This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: HARD-WW-DP-0356 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice