Wilson backs his statement by detailing 10 key evolutions in 2014 he sees as tell-tale signs the Internet turned the Social Media corner.

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2 Introduction In a Business Insider article on December 21, 2014, Union Square Ventures Managing Partner Fred Wilson declared: the social media phase of the Internet is over. Wilson backs his statement by detailing 10 key evolutions in 2014 he sees as tell-tale signs the Internet turned the Social Media corner. In our recent and latest survey, we decided to look at each of the 10 evolutions highlighted by Wilson and gauge the extent to which our members and partners align with Wilson s assertions. Survey Results and Analysis Assertion 1: There isn t much innovation in big social platforms any more. Figure 1 1

3 The common feeling is that innovation in social networks is clearly not obvious from an end-user perspective. Only 12% stated they felt that innovation had simply stopped, but over a third of respondents felt innovation was more clearly focused on corporate interests (i.e. advertising, behavior tracking etc.) rather than on end-user needs. Finally, another ¼ of respondents collectively felt whatever innovation was still taking place was not meaningful or mainly focused on back-end elements. So clearly, IMA membership agrees with the assertion that innovation in social networks is no longer obvious, if at present at all. Assertion 2: Messaging is the new social media. Figure 2a Messaging has clearly become a force to reckon with, and is now collectively ahead of social networks from a global usage perspective. While 45% reported using messaging alone or far more than social networks, another 35% reported using both about equally. Only 20% reported using social networks more than messaging or exclusively. 2

4 Figure 2b To try and further qualified those answers, we asked members to specify whether their use of messaging or social networks was related to specific situations or circumstances. Social networks (aggregated under the Facebook category, and also including Instagram etc.) clearly dominate when multi-media (pictures, videos) are involved, as well as for group communications and to exchange among friends. Social networks are e vidently well suited to mass updates at the push of a button. Messaging is clearly favored over social networks for alerts, status updates, emergency communications, and perhaps more significantly, for communications with co-workers and family members, likely due to the personal, one-on-one nature of these exchanges. Interestingly, the Other category was selected by a significant number of respondents across the spectrum, so it will be interesting to peel back the onion in an upcoming survey to further analyze that spread, likely including etc. The assertion that messaging is the new social media may not yet be fully realized, but messaging clearly seems poised to outpace social networks in the not-too-distant future. 3

5 Assertion 3: The sharing economy was ousted as the rental economy. Out of all sharing economy service providers we listed, many (12 out of 14) were mostly unknown to our membership. Surprisingly, only two of them were known by more than 50% of responders: Ubr and Airbnb. However, even as leaders in the segment, Ubr was unknown to close to 40% of our members, while Airbnb was unknown to close to 50% of responders. Lyft was third with only 56% reporting not knowing the brand. All other services were unknown by more than 65% of responders, many with more than 80%. Strikingly, another 38% reported knowing but not having used either Uber or Airbnb, resulting in less than 25% of respondents having used Ubr at least once, and about 14% having used Airbnb at least once. It therefore appears that assertion 3 does not hold just yet. The rental economy is still trying to figure out how to go mainstream. Adoption and growth has been remarkable for many of these companies, but none of them has become ubiquitous just yet. Figure 3 4

6 Assertion 4: The rise of crowdfunding. While few responders had actually used crowdfunding for one of their own projects, close to 50% had contributed to a crowdfunded project. Figure 4a To the extent that almost half of responders indicated they had contributed, it seems reasonable to infer that crowdfunding is indeed on the rise, and becoming a much more common way to raise money. Assertion 4 stands. Figure 4b 5

7 Assertion 5: The mobile OS duopoly. Your responses clearly backed assertion 5 that the world of mobile operating systems is a duopoly dominated by ios on the one side and Android on the other. Worldwide, a report by International Data Corporation (IDC) revealed that ios and Android share over 96% of the market. Android is clearly ahead with slightly more than 81% market share, followed by ios with slightly less than 15%. In our survey, we allowed multiple choices to recognize that some individuals may be using more than one operating Figure 5 system. Taking this into account, Android was reported used by close to 63% of responders, and ios by 58%. A much narrower range than observed globally. However, the role played by other mobile operating systems was clearly less significant, validating assertion 5 and the mobile OS duopoly theory. 6

8 Assertion 6: Mobile and messaging have started to impact the enterprise. It is clear that mobile is now playing a major role in the enterprise, and has been for a number of years. So rather than focusing on mobile, we wanted to find out whether messaging was experiencing the same growth, and if so what messaging platform. Here again, the data surprised us. Out of 22 messaging and collaboration engines listed, 17 were unknown by more than 70% of responders, 10 of which by more than 80%... The list (not fully shown on Figure 6 above also included: Hipchat, Flowdock, Gitter.im, Cotap, Flock.co, IMO, Hall, Campfire, Wire, Telegram, Sqwiggle, Grove, Unison). Only Skype, Hangouts, Figure 6 Yammer and Lync were reported as used by more than 10% of responders, Skype being clearly in the lead with more than 62% using. Across the board, including the top 4 used solutions, a significant percentage of responders also reported knowing about but not using any of the services. While mobile is clearly ubiquitous, messaging doesn t quite seem to be a dominating force in the enterprise, and assertion 6 is only partially validated. 7

9 Assertion 7: Youtube became a monster. Only 7% of responders admitted never watching content on Youtube with a majority using daily or more. Clearly Youtube is a monster. Figure 7 Assertion 8: We finally got rid of files thanks to cloud-based storage services. We were not surprised to see Dropbox (85% using at work, home or both) or Google drive (70% using at work, home or both). But we were surprised to see icloud so close to Google drive, and OneDrive much lower in the ranks with only close to 30%. Most notably, icloud was used primarily at work, likely a reflection of the importance of graphic design in the Internet marketing vertical. 8 Figure 8

10 Clearly however, cloud-based storage is on the rise and challenging traditional enterprise solutions, especially in the small to mid-size segments. All of that said, we are still far from having eliminated files. We just put them somewhere else, and have improved the way we access them, share them and back them up. Assertion 9: The Net Neutrality debate raged on. Figure 9 Those in favor of Net Neutrality have an edge here with over 55% of the vote, against only 7% opposed to it. However, close to 40% do not have an opinion or admit not knowing enough about the issue. While the debate is still raging, many are not involved or informed enough to participate. 9

11 Assertion 10: The rise of cybercrime and cyberwarfare is a growing concern. Finally, a large majority of respondents expressed their concern with the rise of cyber-security (over 80% were somewhat, very or extremely concerned). Figure 10 10

12 Conclusion Fred Wilson s key evolutions for 2014 are therefore largely validated. At issue however is the question of whether or not these evolutions signify the end of the social media phase of the Internet. I prefer to think that the definition of social and media, as well as the solutions and tools used to engage socially are simply changing and adapting. Much happened in 2014, and many if not all trends detailed in Wilson s article are likely to continue and deepen, affecting individuals, groups and businesses alike. But some of the more fundamental changes are yet to take hold notably the impact that the rental economy will have in the longer term. Assertion Assertion 1: There isn t much innovation in big social platforms any more. Assertion 2: Messaging is the new social media. Assertion 3: The sharing economy was ousted as the rental economy. Assertion 4: The rise of crowdfunding. Assertion 5: The mobile OS duopoly Assertion 6: Mobile and messaging have started to impact the enterprise. Assertion 7: Youtube became a monster. Assertion 8: We finally got rid of files thanks to cloud-based storage services. Assertion 9: The Net Neutrality debate raged on. Assertion 10: The rise of cybercrime and cyberwarfare is a growing concern. Results Validated Partially Validated Not Validated Validated Validated Partially Validated Validated Partially Validated Partially Validated Validated 11