COMMITTEE ON COMMODITY PROBLEMS

Transcription

1 October 2017 CCP:HF/JU 17/CRS 5 E COMMITTEE ON COMMODITY PROBLEMS JOINT MEETING OF THE THIRTY-NINTH SESSION OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL GROUP ON HARD FIBRES AND THE FORTY-FIRST SESSION OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL GROUP ON JUTE, KENAF AND ALLIED FIBRES Tanga, United Republic of Tanzania, November 2017 REVIEW OF THE STATISTICAL ISSUES AFFECTING THE SECRETARIAT I. Importance of JACKS and related data 1. The Groups on Hard Fiber and on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibres (IGG/HFJU), subsidiary bodies of the Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP), play an important role in contributing to the development of jute, abaca, coir, kenaf and sisal (JACKS) producers in emerging economies and developing countries. Amongst other issues, the JACKS sectors address food insecurity and poverty reduction challenges by improving the income of food and non-food agricultural production systems, the core work domain of the FAO. 2. The IGG/HFJU play a critical role in providing regular updates on the industries through their technical and statistical reports and prospects and outlook studies which are based on data directly collected from countries. Beyond these reports, IGG/HFJU provide a unique space for policy dialogue and consensus building between producing and consuming countries on emerging issues affecting the natural fibres industry. Policy advocated by the forum and its analysis are evidence-based and therefore grounded on a solid data collection approach supported by two-way communication between the Secretariat and the member countries.

2 2 CCP:HF/JU 17/CRS 5 II. TYPES AND IMPORTANCE OF THE DATA COLLECTED 3. The Secretariat collects, tabulates and analyses information relating to the production, marketing, trade and consumption of jute, kenaf and allied fibres. These data are collected through aligned questionnaires and feed in a database, which supports the works of the IGGs. Based on the data collected from member countries, the Secretariat provides an analysis of recent developments in the JACKS markets and prospects in the medium term. 4. Information collected through the questionnaires constitutes the main source of data for the Secretariat s work supporting the IGGs in monitoring and analysis of the commodity markets. The information collected is unique as it is specific to the industries, and the Secretariat s database remains a rare stock of standardized information on sources and utilizations of hard fibres based on primary data provided by member states. Instruments that provide data hardly found in other macroeconomic and specialized business-led sources need to be reinforced and the partnership behind them strengthened towards well targeted and evidence-based policies. 5. The questionnaires cover pertinent and rare data on raw fibres, as well as on the manufactures, a niche for the IGG/HFJU. Data collected by the Secretariat finally feed into the FAO multi-country partial equilibrium model of raw fibre and fibre good markets which is used as a basis for projections on the industries. III. Data collection tools: the questionnaires 6. Data used in the assessment of the current market situation and for generating projections are compiled from the response to a set of annual questionnaires on JACKS. 7. The Secretariat traditionally uses two main groups of questionnaires: i) the questionnaires on jute, kenaf and allied fibres which are sent to producers and traders of these industries; and ii) the questionnaires on hard fibres which cover sisal and henequen; abaca; and coir fibres, coir yarn and coir products. The questionnaires on hard fibres cover data on raw fibres and manufactures; production, trade, stocks and market prices; and on raw fibres and manufactures. 8. The annual questionnaires are sent to Member States through the pertinent Ministries and focal points whose responses generally sent by allow the extraction of relevant statistics for the Secretariat s database. IV. Assessing the performance of data collection system 9. Despite pledges from each Group (IGG) meeting, the responses to the questionnaires remain poor. Major gaps in data provided to the Secretariat are a concern, particularly for jute and coir, as well as sisal prices. For the first time in its history, the Secretariat was not able to prepare the market situation report for the hard fibres, jute, kenaf and allied fibres prior to the Joint Meeting of the IGG/HFJU in 2015 because of data constraints. It is extremely difficult to conduct quality market analysis in the absence of complete and accurate data. This situation is compounded when trying to generate projections for the future. 10. The response rate to the jute and hard fibres questionnaires has significantly increased over the last decade. For jute, it rose from an average of 35 percent between 2007 and 2010, to 60 percent from 2011 to Responses provided on hard fibres have also increased from an average of 46 percent from to over 60 percent from 2011 to The Secretariat has consistently registered systematic responses for jute and hard fibres questionnaires and commends major countries/players for the continuous efforts aimed at highlighting their role in the fibre industry (production and manufacturing) as well as in global trade.

3 CCP:HF/JU 17/CRS Such progress made in terms of responses channelled to the Secretariat has allowed the publication of the Market Situation Report for 2016/17; however, specific data quality issues and the low level of responses on selected segments1 and types of questionnaires need to be addressed in order to strengthen further the data collection process. 12. While the data collection partnership should be based on a continuous dialogue on the tools used and the results made, feedback received in terms of assessing the quality of the questionnaires and issues hampering countries response is rather weak. V. Way forward and discussion questions 13. The specific nature of the questionnaires and the niche in terms of data collected call for strengthening the partnership between the Secretariat and member countries for accurate, complete and timely data provision. 14. Updating information is an ongoing process; it is therefore important to enhance the dialogue and feedback culture towards regular revision and validation of the information provided. Such practices will ease the process of addressing any other issues affecting the quality and performance of the data collection system. 15. The permanent dialogue should allow any revisions of the structure of the jute and hard fibres questionnaires and other specific segments registering low response rates to enhance the level and quality of information received. The feedback should enlighten the Secretariat on any additional information, notes, sections or acronyms and glossaries to the questionnaire and market analysis reports so that the information conveyed is more transparent and easily readable/understandable in order to capture a larger public. 16. The Secretariat aims at enhancing cooperation with member countries on data collection and receiving orientation from the Groups. Therefore, a set of questions should guide the discussions in the plenary. Participants will make recommendations which will fill in the report of the Session towards renewing the commitment on data provision. Some of the questions are: How to enhance the practice of feedback from members on the data collection process for natural fibres? Which strategies should be put in place in order to strengthen the completeness, timeliness and quality of responses to the questionnaires? Is there any additional information available that would be useful to collect and that could be added to the questionnaires? Which actions should be taken towards more interactions on the data collection, analysis and publication within the IGG? 1 A table summarizing the response rates for every segment of the questionnaires is attached in Appendix.

4 4 CCP:HF/JU 17/CRS 5 Appendix1. Status of responses received on the Secretariat questionnaires IGG supported Focus Section Response rate (%) Comments /need for clarification Group on Jute, Kenaf Statistical Questionnaire on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibers (long Section A (Stocks) 0 This signals that the proposed survey design is not that efficient and Allied Fibers I (long version) survey/main producers / traders 2 and producers)3 Section B (Production) and Section C 100 Proposed survey design is Group on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibers II (Short version) Group on Hard Fibers Statistical questionnaire on jute goods /manufactured jute products - Jute products (for current and past season) Statistical Questionnaire on Jute, Kenaf and Allied Fibers (short questionnaire/minor producers)4 Statistical Questionnaire on Sisal and Henequen: raw fiber and manufactures / Productions, Exports (volume and value), imports Statistical Questionnaire on Sisal and Henequen: raw fiber and manufactures/ Utilization of competing synthetic materials (Exports) Section D (Fiber requirements/ Consumption) efficient 35 Text maybe inadequate and not calibrated to the respondent (main producers) Stocks, Production, Imports, Exports 83 This informs that the proposed survey design is efficient but signal the potential for improvement /may need minor re-design Section A. (jute raw fiber) 100 Survey design is efficient Section B. (jute manufactured goods) 100 Sisal and Henequen: Brazil, Tanzania, Kenya, China, Madagascar Abaca: Philippines, Ecuador Coir: India, Sri Lanka, Viet Nam, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines Sisal and Henequen: Brazil, Tanzania, Kenya, China, Madagascar This signals that the proposed survey design is not that efficient. The questions are not fitted to this stakeholder or should be further clarified 2 Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Czech Rep., Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Myanmar, Nepal, Netherlands, Pakistan, Poland, Romania, Thailand, and Viet Nam. 3 Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Mozambique, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sweden, Syria, Tanzania, Turkey, and Zimbabwe. 4 Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Kenya, Mozambique, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sweden, Syria, Tanzania, Turkey, and Zimbabwe.

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