Tankan Summary (December 2018) 179th Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan

Transcription

1 Tankan Summary (December 18) 179th Short-Term Economic Survey of in Japan 1. Business Conditions December 14, 18 Number of Sample Ref.: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises Research and Statistics Department Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total Response rate (yen per US dollar) Bank of Japan All 4,59 5,81 9, % FY 17 FY 18 1, , % 1H 2H 1H 2H 1,52 1,78 2, % June 18 Survey ,998 3,178 5, % Sept. 18 Survey Financial institutions % Dec. 18 Survey Responding Period: November 13 to December 13 (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Manufacturing Textiles Lumber & Wood products Pulp & Paper Chemicals Petroleum & Coal products Ceramics, Stone & Clay Iron & Steel Nonferrous metals Food & Beverages Processed metals General-purpose machinery Production machinery Business oriented machinery Electrical machinery Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc Motor vehicles Basic materials Processing Nonmanufacturing Construction Real estate Goods rental & Leasing Wholesaling Retailing Transport & Postal activities Communications Information services Electric & Gas utilities Services for businesses Services for individuals Accommodations, Eating & Drinking services All industries All Notes: 1. Response rate = The number of enterprises that responded to the question on Business Conditions / The number of sample enterprises * 1 Manufacturing Actual result: Judgement at the time of the survey, : Judgement at the time of three months hence Nonmanufacturing Changes in actual result = "Actual result of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the previous survey" All industries Changes in forecast = " of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the current survey" 3. "Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc." indicates Transportation machinery excluding Motor vehicles. Not to be released before 8:5 a.m. on Friday, December 14, 18 1

2 1. Business Conditions (Continued) <Ref.> Percentage share of the number of respondents choosing each alternative (%, % points) Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Actual result Mediumsized Mediumsized Manufacturing Favorable Not so favorable Unfavorable Nonmanufacturing Favorable Not so favorable Unfavorable (Note) Business Conditions DI = Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable" 2. Supply and Demand Conditions, Inventories, and Prices (% points) (% points) Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Actual Actual Actual Actual result result Changes Changes result result Changes Changes Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products Manufacturing Domestic Supply & Demand Conditions for Products Manufacturing and Services: Basic materials and Services: Basic materials Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Processing Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Processing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products: Manufacturing Overseas Supply & Demand Conditions for Products: Manufacturing Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Basic materials Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply" Basic materials Processing Processing Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise: Manufacturing Inventory Level of Finished Goods & Merchandise: Manufacturing 1 1 Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing 7 7 minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing Wholesalers' Inventory Level: Manufacturing Wholesalers' Inventory Level: Manufacturing Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials Diffusion index of "Excessive or somewhat excessive" Basic materials minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing minus "Insufficient or somewhat insufficient" Processing Manufacturing Manufacturing Change in Output Prices: Basic materials Change in Output Prices: Basic materials Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing Change in Input Prices: Basic materials Change in Input Prices: Basic materials Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing 22-2 Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall" Processing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing

3 3. Sales and Current Profits Sales FY17 FY18 1H FY17 2H FY17 1H FY18 2H FY18 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing Domestic Sales Exports Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All industries (Note) Revision rates are calculated as the percentage change of the figures between the current and the previous survey. Current Profits FY17 FY18 1H FY17 2H FY17 1H FY18 2H FY18 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing Basic materials Processing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All industries

4 3. Sales and Current Profits (Continued) Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (%, % points) (%, % points) FY17 FY18 1H FY17 2H FY17 1H FY18 2H FY18 Changes () Changes Changes Changes () Changes Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All industries Net Income FY17 FY18 1H FY17 2H FY17 1H FY18 2H FY18 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing Basic materials Processing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Manufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All industries

5 4. Fixed Investment, etc. Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses* R&D Investment FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries * Excludes software and R&D investment. Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Software Investment Purchasing Expenses FY17 FY18 FY17 FY18 Revision rate () Revision rate Revision rate () Revision rate Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Production Capacity (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points) Land Purchasing Expenses Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey FY17 FY18 Actual Actual Revision rate () Revision rate result result Changes Changes Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries Manufacturing Manufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All Nonmanufacturing All industries All industries

6 5. Fixed Investment of Financial institutions 6. Employment Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses of Financial institutions* Employment Conditions (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points) FY17 FY18 Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Revision rate () Revision rate Actual result Actual result Financial institutions Changes Changes Banks Financial institutions for cooperative organizations Manufacturing Financial products transaction dealers Nonmanufacturing Insurance companies All industries Non-deposit money corporations Manufacturing (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions Nonmanufacturing Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions All industries * Excludes software and R&D investment. Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Software Investment of Financial institutions All industries Financial institutions Manufacturing Banks All Nonmanufacturing Financial institutions for cooperative organizations All industries Financial products transaction dealers Insurance companies Non-deposit money corporations Number of New Graduates Hired (All industries) (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions (Surveyed only in June and December) Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions FY17 FY18 FY19 Revision rate () Revision rate () Revision rate Land Purchasing Expenses of Financial institutions Financial institutions Banks All Financial institutions for cooperative organizations All & Financial institutions Financial products transaction dealers Manufacturing Insurance companies Nonmanufacturing Non-deposit money corporations Financial institutions (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions Software, R&D, and Fixed Investment excluding Land Purchasing Expenses of Financial institutions Financial institutions Banks Financial institutions for cooperative organizations Financial products transaction dealers Insurance companies Non-deposit money corporations (Memo) All industries including Financial institutions Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions

7 7. Corporate Finance 8. Business Conditions of Financial institutions Financial Position (All industries) Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight," % points) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes Banks Financial institutions for cooperative organizations Financial products transaction dealers All Insurance companies Manufacturing Non-deposit money corporations Nonmanufacturing Financial institutions Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) Production Capacity (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe," % points) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points) Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes Banks Financial institutions for cooperative organizations Financial products transaction dealers All Insurance companies Manufacturing Non-deposit money corporations Nonmanufacturing Financial institutions Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) Employment Conditions (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall," % points) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points) Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Actual result Actual result Actual result Changes Changes Changes Changes Banks Financial institutions for cooperative organizations Financial products transaction dealers All Insurance companies Manufacturing Non-deposit money corporations Nonmanufacturing Financial institutions Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) <Based on CP-Issuing > (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe," % points) Sept. 18 Survey Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Actual result Changes

8 (Reference Charts) Notes: 1. Unless otherwise noted, shaded areas indicate periods of recession (according to the Cabinet Office). 2. There is a discontinuity between the figures up to the December 3 survey and those from the March 4 survey (as for the December 3 survey, the results of preliminary survey based on "Capital" are also shown). 3. The "Principal " survey was discontinued after the December 3 survey. [Business Conditions] Peaks and Bottoms of Business Conditions (from May 1974) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) "Favorable" "Unfavorable" "Favorable" "Unfavorable" Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing 7 6 (Data prior to Feb are those of Principal ) Manufacturing (75/5) (75/2,5) (75/5) (76/8, 11) (77/11) (76/8) (78/2) (76/8) (77/11, 78/2) (79/8) (83/2) (79/8) (83/2) (79/8) (83/2) (84/11, 85/2) (86/11) (85/2) (87/2) (84/8, 11) (86/8, 11) (89/5) (93/11, 94/2) (89/8) (94/2) (89/5,8) (94/2) (97/6) (98/12) (97/3, 6) (98/12) (97/6) (98/12) (/9, 12) (1/12, 2/3) (/12) (1/12) (/12) (2/3) (4/9) (9/3) (6/12) (9/3) (6/12) (9/3,6) (1/9) (12/12) (1/9) (13/3) (11/12) (13/3) Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Peaks and Bottoms of Business Conditions (from May 1983 ) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) Nonmanufacturing (83/5) (83/8) (83/8, 11) (85/5) (86/2, 8, 11, 87/2) (85/5) (87/2) (84/11) (86/8) (9/8) (94/2) (9/2) (94/2) (89/5, 9/8) (93/11) (96/11) (98/12) (96/5) (98/9) (96/5, 11) (98/9) (/9) (1/12, 2/3) (/12) (2/3) (/12) (2/3) (6/12, 7/3, 6) (9/3) (7/6) (9/3) (6/6, 12, 7/3) (9/6) (12/6, 9) (12/12) (12/6) (12/12) (12/6, 9) (12/12) Dec. 18 Survey Actual result

9 [Supply and Demand Conditions and Prices ( Manufacturing )] "Excess demand" "Excess supply" Peaks and Bottoms of Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions for Products and Services for Products and Services (from May 1974) (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply," % points ) Manufacturing Peak Bottom (75/2) (76/8) (77/11) (8/5) (83/2) (84/8, 11) (87/2) 2-5 (9/8) (93/11, 94/2) (97/6) (98/12) (/9) (1/12) (6/9, 12) (9/3) (11/9) (12/12) Dec. 18 Survey Actual result -1-2 "Rise" "Fall" 1 Output prices 8 Input prices Prices Peaks and Bottoms of Prices (from May 1974 ) (Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall," % points) Manufacturing Output Prices Input Prices Peak Bottom Peak Bottom (75/2, 8) (75/8) (76/8) (78/11) (76/8) (78/8) (8/5) (83/2) (8/5) (82/2) (84/2) (86/8, 11) (82/11) (86/8, 11) (9/11) (93/11, 94/5) (9/11) (93/11) (97/6) (98/12) (97/3) (98/12, 99/3) (/9) (2/3) (/12) (1/12) (8/9) (9/3) (8/6) (9/3) (11/6) (12/12) (11/6) (12/12) Dec. 18 Survey Output Prices Input Prices Actual result

10 [Ratio of Current Profit to Sales] 9. (%) Manufacturing Peaks and Bottoms of Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (from 1974) (%) Manufacturing (FY75) (FY75) (FY75) (FY79) (FY81) (FY79) (FY82) (FY79) (FY82) (FY84) (FY86) (FY84) (FY85) (FY84) (FY86) (FY89) (FY93) (FY89) (FY93) (FY89) (FY93) (FY96) (FY98) (FY96) (FY97) (FY96) (FY98) (FY) (FY1) (FY) (FY1) (FY) (FY1) (FY6) (FY8) (FY6) (FY8) (FY6) (FY8) FY (%) Nonmanufacturing (Data prior to FY1981 are those of Principal excluding Electric & Gas utilities) () Dec. 18 Survey FY FY18 () Peaks and Bottoms of Ratio of Current Profit to Sales (from 1982) (%) Nonmanufacturing (FY82) (FY82) (FY82) (FY83) (FY84) (FY83) (FY84) (FY88) (FY94) (FY88) (FY93) (FY89) (FY93) (FY95,96) (FY97) (FY96) (FY97,98) (FY96) (FY98) (FY) (FY1) (FY) (FY1) (FY6) (FY8) (FY5,6) (FY8) (FY6) (FY8). FY () 1 Dec. 18 Survey FY FY18 ()

11 [Developments of Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses] (1) 3. Excludes software and R&D investment. Notes: 1. The graphs indicate the revision pattern of fixed investment. The horizontal axis represents the point of time when the survey is conducted for each fiscal year. Namely, the first survey for each year (March survey) is on the left, and the last survey (June survey of the following year; actual result) is on the right. The vertical axis represents the year-to-year percent change. 2. There is a discontinuity in the data in December 17 due to the regular revision of the sample enterprises. Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries Average of historical data (FY to FY17) -5 Average of historical data (FY to FY17) -5 Average of historical data (FY to FY17) -1 FY15-1 FY15-1 FY15 FY16 FY16 FY16-15 FY17-15 FY17-15 FY17 - FY18 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result - FY18 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result - FY18 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result 11

12 (2) Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries 3 Average of historical data (FY to FY17) 25 FY15 3 Average of historical data (FY to FY17) 25 FY15 3 Average of historical data (FY to FY17) 25 FY15 15 FY16 FY17 FY18 15 FY16 FY17 FY18 15 FY16 FY17 FY March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result -4 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result -4 March June Sept. Dec. (March) (June) Actual result 12

13 [Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] Peaks and Bottoms of Production Capacity (from May 1977) "Excessive" "Insufficient" [Employment Conditions (All industries)] "Excessive" "Insufficient" (Data prior to Feb are those of Principal ) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points) Manufacturing (78/2) (8/5) (78/2) (8/5) (78/2) (8/5) (83/2) (85/2,5) (83/2) (84/8,85/2) (83/2) (84/5) (86/11) (9/11) (86/11,87/2) (91/2) (87/2) (9/11,91/2) (94/2) (97/9) (94/2) (97/9) (94/2) (97/3) (99/6) (/9) (99/3) (/12) (99/6) (/12) (2/3) (7/6) (1/12,2/3) (7/12) (1/12,2/3) (6/12,7/3) (9/3) (11/9,12) (9/3,6) (11/9) (9/6) (11/12) (12/12) (12/12,13/3) (12/12,13/3) Dec. 18 Survey Actual result Peaks and Bottoms of Employment Conditions (from May 1986) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points) All industries (87/2,5) (91/2) (87/5) (91/2) (87/5) (9/11,91/2) (94/2) (97/9) (94/2,5,8) (97/3) (94/5,95/8) (97/3) (99/3,6) (1/3) (98/12) (/12) (99/3,6) (/12) (1/12) (7/3,12) (1/12) (7/3) (1/12,2/3) (6/12,7/3) (9/3,6) (12/3,6) (9/6) (12/3) (9/6) (12/3) (12/12) (12/6,9) (12/6) Dec. 18 Survey Actual result

14 [Corporate Finance (All industries)] Financial Position "Easy" "Tight" (Data prior to Feb are those of Principal ) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) Peaks and Bottoms of Financial Position (from May 1983 ) (Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight," % points) All industries (88/5) (98/12) (17/3,6,9,12, 18/6,9) Dec. 18 Survey Actual result (98/12) (89/5,18/6) (98/9,12) "Accommodative" "Severe" Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (Data prior to Feb are those of Principal ) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) (Nonmanufacturing not included before May 1983) Peaks and Bottoms of Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (from May 1983) (Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe," % points) All industries (84/11,85/2) (91/2) (87/5) (98/12) (88/8,89/2) (98/12) Dec. 18 Survey Actual result