Welcome to the 2012 update

Transcription

1 Welcome to the 2012 update 1

2 About the programme 2

3 Why trends? Don t explain the past, predict the future Stan Sthanunathan VP Marketing Strategy & Insights, The Coca Cola Company In his AdMap article in 2011, he argues that research should revolve around anticipating new opportunities, using innovative approaches and turning insights into action now Visions and strategies linked to a clear sense of the future make us better able to shape the future we prefer Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Fellow, World Futures Studies Federation A means to create a forwardlooking, outward-looking and consumer-centric mindset amongst decision makers in an organisation. Ensure business, category and brand strategies remain proactive to the changing consumer landscape. A source of inspiration to help unlock new ideas for profitable growth. 3

4 About the Consumer Lifestyle Trends Programme The Consumer Lifestyles Trends Programme is a foundation of knowledge that allows the Irish Food and Drinks Industry to better predict and prepare for consumers future needs and wants. Trends help companies to be more outward-looking, futurefocused and consumer driven. Using Trends helps companies to anticipate change in consumers lives and not just be responsive. Trends help organisations to make sense of, and plan for, change and also act as a catalyst for new thoughts and ideas. 4

5 Objectives of the Consumer Lifestyle Trends Programme A framework for making sense of change in these volatile and fast-changing times. An approach that brings consumers to the heart of the business decision making. A driver of more futurefocused marketing. A systematic approach to identifying new opportunities and threats. A source of inspiration and a spur for innovation. 5

6 This year s programme provides both a consumer and shopper perspective on the trends Consumer Shopper Created for strategy and NPD / Brand Positioning Created for channel strategy and for retail execution ideas Tracks change in broader shifts in consumer attitudes, values, and behaviours Explores specific shopper trends, i.e. what is happening in store and online Considers how these will shape needs within the food and drink industry within Ireland and key international markets 6

7 Identifying and defining the trends 7

8 There is a lot of change going on in the world and at times it can feel overwhelming Related sectors Food & Drink Trends that are current or close to the category Trends that are long term or distant from the category 8

9 A trends framework provides clarity and strategic focus on the change that will impact your business Related sectors Food & Drink Trends that are current or close to the category Trends that are long term or distant from the category 9

10 How we identify and understand trends An understanding of the macro forces shaping the lives of consumers such as social, technological, economic, environmental and political factors Top Down Can we identify substantial Drivers behind this trend that suggest it will continue? Empirical evidence from a range of sources, including Global MONITOR, a quantitative study covering 21 markets and surveying 28,000 respondents Qualitative depth interviews in Ireland and GB TREND Validated through research Global Streetscaping network: independent, discerning, culturally connected individuals who are spread throughout 40 countries and 60 cities covering every continent of the world Can we see evidence of this trend at work in brand or human behaviour or attitudes? Bottom Up 10

11 Detailing a trend Driver Sub-trend Driver Sustained change in consumer attitudes, needs, wants and behaviours Sub-trend Driver Sub-trend The forces and energies shaping the trend Ways in which the trends are playing out in today s world 11

12 Many sub-trends remain relevant, but have evolved We have told the story of how each sub-trend has evolved through an evolution arrow HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING? TOWARD What are the defining characteristics of the sub-trend today and what is emerging at the edges? FROM What were the defining characteristics of this subtrend in 2009? 12

13 The updated Consumer Lifestyle Trends I want to manage my busy life and make sure that I am at my best for whatever the day presents I want a balanced approach to health and wellness, to have greater control through the choices I can make I want to get more enjoyment from the simple things in life; to have experiences that add more fun and meaning I like to pursue better value, to help maintain my lifestyle and to get the most from the money I have I am mindful that I need to live more responsibly; I want to make better choices that make a difference without having to compromise I am looking for products and brands that are real, authentic and honest, because I know I can trust what's in them and where they come from 13

14 Applying the trends 14

15 Unleashing the power of trends Good strategy comes from a broad and deep understanding of the marketplace. Adding a future perspective to existing knowledge enables marketers to successfully manage the need to build value today, whilst planning for the needs and opportunities of tomorrow. Trends can provide this window into the future, however, the power of trends is rarely unleashed by considering them in isolation. 15

16 Linking the trends with key processes Whilst many companies have established processes in place, these processes rarely consider the way in which trends can enhance or redefine them. The key processes Consumer Lifestyle Trends can be integrated into are: Short-term planning Formulating and exploring longer-term strategy Category / brand portfolio planning Optimising brand positioning and proposition development Ideation within an innovation process. Please contact Bord Bia if you would like some guidance or help on how you can effectively use the trends in these processes. 16

17 Appendix 17

18 About Global Monitor 2011 The Global MONITOR survey covers 28,000 respondents across 21 countries Online and face-to-face surveying is combined in a mixed-methodology n = 27,092 approach 18

19 About Global Monitor 2011 Country Sample Size Survey Method UK n=2015 All Web France n=982 All Web Germany n=1082 All Web Italy n=1011 All Web Spain n=1000 All Web US n=2000 All Web Ireland n=998 All Web Japan n=1000 All Web Australia n=989 All Web Canada n=986 All Web South Korea n=987 All Web Poland n= face to face and 746 web Turkey n= face to face and 802 web Brazil n= face to face and 1,582 web Russia n= face to face and 1,588 web Mexico n= face to face and 799 web Colombia n= face to face and 704 web Argentina n= face to face and 717 web Saudi Arabia n= face to face and 778 web China n=1288 1,983 face to face and 505 web India n=2504 2,012 face to face and 492 web 19

20 Global Monitor Unweighted sample sizes For trended data presented in the Consumer Lifestyle Trends Programme Country Ireland n = 1004 n = 998 n = 998 UK n = 1990 n = 1994 n = 2015 France n = 1026 n = 989 n = 982 Germany n = 990 n = 1001 n = 1082 Italy n = 991 n = 971 n = 1011 Spain n = 986 n = 966 n = 1000 US n = 1967 n = 1972 n = 2000 Brazil n = 2024 n = 1998 n = 1982 Russia n = 1999 n = 2063 n = 1998 India n = 2529 n = 2544 n = 2504 China n = 2500 n = 2499 n =

21 How to interpret Global MONITOR data All Futures Company projects are conducted in compliance with ISO The 2011 Global MONITOR survey collected data from over 28,000 consumers, aged 16 and above, in 21 countries across the world. Average survey length was 45 minutes. The 2011 data were collected between March 30 th and May 26 th The survey used a mixed methodology, including face-to-face interviews to achieve a more representative sample in emerging markets (although the sample in these markets should still be considered urban representative rather than nationally representative). All countries were weighted by age within gender targets from census counts. Region was used for all countries except China and India, and was determined by fielding partners. Household income was used to weight all countries except the UK, which used social class. Targets for income were set on the basis of advice from panel providers and secondary sources. Where possible, standardized data have been used to improve cross-country comparability, taking account of how people in different countries use questionnaire scales differently (e.g., some countries tend to give more positive answers than others). Please see the last two slides for details. Further detail on sampling and methodology is available on request. Year on year tracking averages include all those countries which were present in every year the question was asked: 15 country tracking average (questions asked since 2008): Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Spain, Turkey, U.K., U.S.A. 17 country tracking average (questions asked since 2009): Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, U.K., U.S.A. 20 country tracking average (questions asked since 2010): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, U.K., U.S.A. 21

22 Notes on Global MONITOR data standardization Standardization process for 5-point agreement and importance scales To control for scale usage biases across and within countries, data are shown using row-standardized data for all 5-point scales in the survey. Global MONITOR primarily uses 5-point scales for attitudinal questions, providing a robust array of topics from which to build the row-standardization analysis. The row-standardization process originally established with Global MONITOR in 2008 was as follows: A series of factor analyses were executed across all 5-point attitude scales used in the survey so that no single topic area of the survey overly influenced the response bias correction. The highest-loading items from each factor were removed before running another factor analysis on the remaining items. These highest-loading factor items from this series of analyses comprised a correction set of items for which a mean and standard deviation were calculated for each survey respondent. The respondent s mean score for the correction items was subtracted from their score on each of the 5-point scale items. These differences were then divided by the respondent s standard deviation across the correction items, producing a scale usage bias corrected score for each item. Cut points were created for each point of the 5-point scales by matching the total percentage of responses at each point in the scale across all of the correction items. In 2009 a model was developed to predict the response bias mean and standard deviation scores by using variables common to both the 2008 and 2009 surveys. Developed using the 2008 data, the model was then applied to calculate the response bias mean and standard deviation scores. Extensive testing has revealed the model to be resilient in the face of changes in both questionnaire content and countries surveyed. 22

23 Notes on Global MONITOR data standardization (2) Standardization process for 8-point values scales Means and standard deviations were calculated for each survey respondent across the 46 value 8-point scale items in the 2011 Global MONITOR survey. The respondent s mean score for the correction items was subtracted from their score on each of the 8-point scale items. These differences were then divided by the respondent s standard deviation across the correction items, producing a scale usage bias corrected score for each item. Note: 5-point and 8-point attitudinal scales comprise the vast majority of attitudinal scales in the Global MONITOR survey, and only these two scale types were standardized. The standardization process utilized for Global MONITOR requires a broad range of survey content to ensure that the strong feelings of an individual on a single subject area don t have a notable impact on the standardization. Standardization changes for 2011 Please note that we made one key change in the presentation of the data this year. In previous years we showed respondent-level standardized data on applicable attitudinal scale questions for cross-country comparisons only. We are now showing standardized data on applicable tables for within-country and cross-country comparisons. You ll find a notation on each table that is standardized, along with a description of the standardization process at the end of each file. We hope you will find this change makes working with our data tables easier, as data points will now match across all files regardless of whether they are intended for cross-country comparisons or within-country analyses. 23

24 About Global Streetscapes A global urban network of culturally connected individuals who gather trends intelligence from around the globe to provide strategic and creative direction for companies, brands and agencies. The Global Streetscapes network continuously captures visual representations of the latest innovations in products, advertising and consumer behavior. Global Streetscapes is a qualitative observational approach designed to complement the vast amounts of quantitative data and insights gathered through Global MONITOR, providing visual examples of key trends in the global marketplace. With an extensive network of Streetscapers in 40 countries and 60 cities across the world, Global Streetscapes is designed to keep in touch with the changing needs and behaviors of consumers. 24

25 Global Streetscapes: 40 countries and 60 cities worldwide SF LA San Diego Global Streetscapes A global network of trend spotters providing a constantly updated feed of fresh cultural, consumer and marketing insights Vancouver Seattle Portland Toronto Chicago Detroit Denver Mexico City Guatemala City Austin Bogota Miami Santiago Montreal New York City Philadephia Caracas Merida Rio de Janerio Sao Paulo Buenos Aries Stockholm Dublin Amsterdam London Berli Warsaw Paris n Milan Barcelona Rome Athens Istanbul Lagos Cape Town Helsinki Cairo Jeddah Moscow Doha Johannesburg Dubai Delhi Mumbai Bangalore Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Beijing Seoul Tokyo Wuxi Osaka Shanghai Hong Kong Jakarta Melbourne Sydney Auckland 25