HARNESSING A ROBUST APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING IN THE FAST FOOD MARKET.

Transcription

1 HARNESSING A ROBUST APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING IN THE FAST FOOD MARKET.

2 BACKGROUND CONTEXT

3 UK AND IRELAND BUSINESS

4 HISTORY AND GROWTH First store opened ,000+ stores operated by more than 70 franchisees 239 new store openings in last 3 years

5 STORE OPERATING MODEL Exclusive delivery area for each store 9 minute drive time Delivery 70% of all orders Carryout/collection 25% of sales Example of non overlapping store catchments in Swindon

6 NETWORK STRATEGY Virgin territories Gap analysis Split stores Increased density Better coverage, customer reach Improved service levels Greater carryout opportunity

7 SALES FORECASTING MODEL Understanding the drivers of store performance Mosaic/catchment propensity Existing store sales by geographical area Cannibalised sales Incremental sales growth This is where Geolytix enter the frame

8 GEOLYTIX LEEDS (2017) LONDON (2013) TOKYO (2017) SHANGHAI (2018) 8

9 MODELLING 9

10 GRAVITY MODELLING Model flows of demand from the customer to the supplier; the key underlying principle is consumers tend to behave rationally and select destinations that are more convenient and more attractive 10

11 BASE GEOGRAPHY Base Geography Can be a existing geographical area, or created, such as a hex grid. Demand Assign a demand figure to the base geographies, through a combination of market size and population. Supply Add in the supply, which are usually your own stores along with competition. Attractiveness A weight assigned to each supply point, based on store and market factors. Key factors include store size & distance travelled from each supply point.

12 Base Geography DEMAND Can be a existing geographical area, or created, such as a hex grid. Demand Assign a demand figure to the base geographies, through a combination of market size and population. Supply Add in the supply, which are usually your own stores along with competition. Attractiveness A weight assigned to each supply point, based on store and market factors. Key factors include store size & distance travelled from each supply

13 SUPPLY Base Geography Can be a existing geographical area, or created, such as a hex grid. Demand Assign a demand figure to the base geographies, through a combination of market size and population. Supply Add in the supply, which are usually your own stores along with competition. Attractiveness A weight assigned to each supply point, based on store and market factors. Key factors include store size & distance travelled from each

14 ATTRACTIVENESS Base Geography Can be a existing geographical area, or created, such as a hex grid. Demand Assign a demand figure to the base geographies, through a combination of market size and population. Supply Add in the supply, which are usually your own stores along with competition. Attractiveness A weight assigned to each supply point, based on store and market factors. Key factors include store size & distance travelled from each supply point. supply point.

15 ATTRACTIVENESS Understanding Attractiveness: There are a number of different variables that feed into understanding a stores attractiveness. Here are some examples Opening Hours Workers Competition Transport Demographics Car Parking

16 LOCATION PLANNING & NETWORK STRATEGY

17 NETWORK PLAN The model is used to derive a network plan all possible locations are run through the model to provide a ranked opportunity target list Leeds Brighton Oxford Bluewater Cheltenham Edinburgh 1. Blank page network plan 2. Reflective of existing estate Geolytix bespoke model 1 2

18 LOCATION PLANNING Site visits to assess the micro-factors that affect site performance - These are actors which are not necessarily revealed in the data Visibility Strength of competition Size and shape of unit Ease of car parking Footfall Staff Accessibility Number of tills

19 SITE VISIT CAPTURE Corner unit with good visibility Direct competitor in immediate area 65% Location type: Retail parade Demographics Parking Competition Adjacencies Abundance of takeaway outlets Corner unit with better visibility than Papa John s Free parking for an hour Situated beneath large residential development Adjacent to Aldi multipurpose shopping trips Close to University of Hertfordshire - students Travelodge opposite trade from hotel guests Papa John s is located three units away A number of cheaper, independent fast- food takeaways & restaurants located within the parade KFC and Subway (40 seat cover) also present within the complex Leisure park on the other side of the road McDonalds, Burger Kind, Chiquito, Prezzo etc present Shopping complex a destination location

20 WHY ARE SITE VISITS IMPORTANT? Shop B Lacks visibility Lower footfall Shop A Prominent unit Very high footfall 65% 70 metres apart Two identical sites from a data perspective so both have similar modelled sales In reality, Shop A has double the sales of Shop B

21 MODEL INTEGRATION INTO ARCGIS PRO Customised User Interface GEOLYTIX ribbon with tools to enhance the functionality of ArcGIS Pro out of the box Bespoke tools e.g. Isochrone tool to simplify and improve the efficiency of creating drivetime isochrones on the fly 65% Model integration Sales Forecasting model operated by buttonclicking in ArcGIS Pro so that the process is straightforward and seamless Streamlining of business procedures Efficiency of store forecasting process significantly improved to allow more time for value-add location planning analysis

22 MODEL INTEGRATION INTO ARCGIS PRO Customised User Interface GEOLYTIX ribbon with tools to enhance the functionality of ArcGIS Pro out of the box Bespoke tools e.g. Isochrone tool to simplify and improve the efficiency of creating drivetime isochrones on the fly 65% Model integration Sales Forecasting model operated by buttonclicking in ArcGIS Pro so that the process is straightforward and seamless Streamlining of business procedures Efficiency of store forecasting process significantly improved to allow more time for value-add location planning analysis

23 MODEL INTEGRATION INTO ARCGIS PRO Customised User Interface GEOLYTIX ribbon with tools to enhance the functionality of ArcGIS Pro out of the box Bespoke tools e.g. Isochrone tool to simplify and improve the efficiency of creating drivetime isochrones on the fly 65% Model integration Sales forecasting model operated by buttonclicking in ArcGIS Pro so that the process is straightforward and seamless Streamlining of business procedures Efficiency of store forecasting process significantly improved to allow more time for value-add location planning analysis

24 MODEL INTEGRATION INTO ARCGIS PRO Customised User Interface GEOLYTIX ribbon with tools to enhance the functionality of ArcGIS Pro out of the box Bespoke tools e.g. Isochrone tool to simplify and improve the efficiency of creating drivetime isochrones on the fly 65% BOARD PAPER Model integration Sales forecasting model operated by buttonclicking in ArcGIS Pro so that the process is straightforward and seamless Target Area & Address Franchised Address Count Site Category Sales Delivered Carryout Carryout % Regression Model Forecast Analogue Model Forecast SITE INFORMATION & CATCHMENT CHARACTERISTICS SALES FORECAST DETAILS Region Location Type Parking & Charge Key Competitor Store Interactive Addresses AWUS Delivered Sales AWUS Carryout Sales % Carrout Streamlining of business procedures Efficiency of store forecasting process significantly improved to allow more time for value-add location planning analysis

25 NETWORK STRATEGY If the Art and the Science align then the decision is very likely to be the right one 65%