Predictive Markets work?

Transcription

1 How Predictive Markets work? Test 15 ideas with a convenience sample of 500 answering for how they believe the market would react Share the game with them, imagine you owned shares in all these ideas..., which one would you sell + diagnostics & why and which one would you double your shares in and why? Aggregated buy/sell scores accurately sorts wheat from chaff, purchase projection indicates the grade of wheat & the rich quali-quant diagnostics provide creative direction Works across cultures with universal net preference scores BrainJuicer s Predictive Markets is an innovative research technique, which enables us to test multiple ideas really quickly, accurately and insightfully. Lauren Lackey Director of Global Technology Wrigley

2 Let the Market select Monadic Test of 10 ideas Less differentiation Over-rewards the mediocre Scores vary by culture More expensive samples Costly to test many ideas 5-6 week turn process Predictive Markets Sorts wheat from the chaff Can also grade the wheat More comparable cross-culture Cheaper convenience sample VFM way to test many ideas 2 week process

3 % Doubling and Selling Shares in Each Idea Male Einstein represents ideas generated by the Creative Sixers Bars represent a breakdown of the % buying and % selling each idea Net preference score sorts wheat from chaff to reveal which concepts have real potential % doubling % selling 15 % of respondents ?????? Net Preference: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R Sample: 500 Click for Contents

4 CommScan Using Faces to tell the engagement story FaceTrace

5 FaceTrace Which of these faces best expresses how you feel about this advert? To what degree did this advert make you feel [selected emotion]? And what was it about this ad that made you feel this way? [Use MindReader to capture reasons for each emotion]

6 Measuring Emotional Engagement Emotions drive everything we do. The more neutral, the less it can provoke any action How the emotion is evoked matters hugely: reflective or autonomic [MindReaders] The more emotion the better but generally splits by purpose: commercial or social Emotional Engagement 100% 90% 80% 70% Contemp t Disgust Anger 60% 50% 40% 30% Fear Sadness Neutral 20% 10% 0% Intensity Score measured on a scale from 0 to Guinness Country Life Domestos Archers Charity Ad 1 Charity Ad 2 Action Aid NSPCC % Feeling Each Emotion - Having seen the ad, please select the emotion below which most closely matches how you feel about it Happy Surprise

7 And the MindReader asks the reasons for the emotion Reason for face - Disgust 'Domestos' Reason for face - Fear 'Domestos' Reason for face - Happy 'Domestos' Reason for face - Surprise 'Domestos' % 15 (181 x All) The disgusting sludgy germ, unpleasant % 33 (18 x All) Is the toilet bleach and disinfectant I am using enough to kill these germs? % 12 (124 x All) It made me laugh and want to keep watching to see what it was for % 22 (27 x All) I was surprised to see something creepy. I like the ads though was like a film 14 The ad is repulsive and makes you not even want to watch to see who it is for 33 horrible ad...almost frightening and wouldn't want my kids to see it 11 it portrays domestos as a strong bleach which will kill all germs makes me happy 15 the shape of the 'germ'! 10 looked disgusting, dirty, smelly. slimy 22 dark and gruesome character 10 It was funny and a bit menacing - good animation 15 it made me cringe 8 The ad is repulsive and makes you not want to watch to see who it is for! 7 just fun 15 so kind of horrid, for an ad, but amusing too 6 icky, utterly revolting, but very very clever 7 It made me laugh 11 it was quite entertaining for a bleach ad 5 The ominous voice and the disgusting yucky bug 7 it was very funny and a bit disgusting! 7 the 'millions of germs will die' statement 4 Germs are disgusting anyway, but these along with the voice grossed me out! 6 it was different and i like animations compared to supposedly real people 7 I was surprised to see something creepy and nasty looking. I like the ads though 4 looked slimy and evil and made me want to clean my loo 6 the kind of ad you would call people into the room to see very funny! 3 didn't know what it was meant to represent initially & generally disgusting 4 It was funny! Also a bit suggestive!

8 CommScan Test 4 communication ideas with a targeted sample of 150; 1 competitor + 3 alternatives, or 3 elements, TV/print/web FaceTrace, KPI s, Main Message, Cognitive Dissonance, how does it make you feel..., to what degree..., and why? Ad ratings, key message & more or less interested? Emotional engagement +KPIs accurately measures emotions and predicts potential for achieving the desired action. Works across cultures with universal FaceTrace scores Costs * 12,000 and takes 2 weeks *Sliding scale with each additional country down to 7,500 per study BrainJuicer s CommScan provided an excellent measure of emotional engagement with rich diagnostics on all the options and produced an insightful, action- focused debrief with clear direction for next steps. Sheela Smale CMI Director Unilever Foods

9 Understanding Brands Isobel Briggs-Myers Katherine Cook-Briggs A psychometric understanding of how consumers see the brand s personality Brand Personality Type Indicator

10 Myers Briggs MBTi 57 Myers Briggs Type Indicator = World s Foremost Personality Profiling tool Based on Jungian typologies and developed by Katherine Cook-Briggs & her daughter Isobel Briggs-Myers, MBTi is the world s foremost personality profiling tool. Regarded as extremely reliable, with 75% reporting the same results & up to 95% of those with clear types. What it can tell you UNDERSTANDING WHAT S IMPORTANT & DRIVES THE BRAND Self-knowledge of the brand & how to realize its full potential Carl Jung RECOGNIZING THE BRAND S STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES Each personality has strengths & weaknesses to acknowledge, accept & use wisely. What can you use it for BRAND PERSONALITY & DNA Robust, deep, insightful knowledge of how consumers see the channel s personality Katherine Cook-Briggs COMMUNICATIONS AUDIT Assessment of how well the brand s communications fit with the brand personality BRAND PARTNERSHIPS Profiling of possible partner brands to predict how good a fit it would be & to help attract advertisers Isobel Briggs-Myers

11 Myers Briggs Personality Types 58 SJ GUARDIANS = Security seeking types; ESTJ Supervisors ISTJ Inspectors ESFJ Providers ISFJ Protectors SP ARTISANS = Sensation seeking types; ESTP Promoter ISTP Crafter ESFP Performer ISFP Composer NT RATIONALS =Knowledge seeking types; ENTJ Field marshal INTJ Mastermind ENTP Inventor INTP Architect NF IDEALISTS = Identity seeking types; ENFJ Teacher INFJ Counsellor ENFP Champion INFP Healer

12 Myers Briggs Personality Types: Mobile Network Operators 59 ENTP Inventor / Visionary ENFP Champion / Inspirer ENFP Champion / Inspirer ENFP Champion/Inspirer ENFP Champion / Inspirer ENFP Champion / Inspirer ESTJ Supervisor/Guardian

13 Vodafone ENTP Inventor / Visionary 60 Strengths: Adaptive Analytical Challenging Clever Enterprising Independent Original Outspoken Questioning Resourceful Strategic Theoretical Steve Jobs Weaknesses: Sets unrealistic priorities & timescales Avoids here & now facts, data Unappreciative of others Neglects routine Resists procedures/processes Over critical of inefficiency & incompetence Obsessiveness Manipulative James Dyson

14 Connecting with Consumers Providing live, 24/7 access to consumers lives JuicyCommunities FamilyCam

15 FamilyCam Real life, real homes Not people performing for the cameras Viewable 24/7 from your desktop New product testing interventions 12,000 per project All film viewable, taggable & usable by all teams + agencies

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17 Other research tools/ suppliers

18 Specialists in Game-like Elicitation Methods 65 September 2007

19 Feature prioritisation: Divide-the the-dollar The respondent allocates $$ to various features (here the example is imagining an ideal mobile phone) A great tool for conjoint research 66 September 2007

20 Divide-the the-dollar results: WeightMap 67 September 2007

21 Open-ended ended research: FreeListing 68 September 2007

22 Open-ended ended research results: ListMap (note the use of a tag cloud display) 69 September 2007

23 70 March 2006

24 71 March 2006