Convergence Bidding Monitoring Process Walkthrough. January 13, 2011

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1 Convergence Bidding Monitoring Process Walkthrough January 13, 2011

2 Agenda Overview Convergence Bidding Monitoring Scenarios Market Impact Reporting and Analysis Operational Monitoring Settlements Proactive Monitoring Behavioral Monitoring Q & A Slide 2

3 Overview: High Level Business Process Diagram Slide 3

4 Overview (2): Convergence Bidding Monitoring Several categories of monitoring will be utilized for convergence bidding Support ISO s corporate goals which include: Delivering market functionality Executing a proactive customer service model Reducing operator intervention Reducing price corrections Note: s and associated triggers that will be discussed are subject to change in the future Slide 4

5 Overview (3): Walkthrough Objective Demonstrate monitoring business scenarios using business use case activity diagrams Highlight objectives of each scenario Highlight metrics and associated triggers where applicable Distinguish between basic, alternative and exception flows of each scenario Depict instances where suspension may be applied Slide 5

6 Market Impact Reporting and Analysis (MIRA) Slide 6

7 Market Impact Reporting and Analysis (2) Objective: Assess market performance/behavior after convergence bidding is implemented and take appropriate actions as required ID Trigger MIRA 1 Amount of RUC awarded capacity procured (RA & non-ra RUC) as a percentage of forecast load. High RUC volumes indicating excessive virtual supply in IFM MIRA 2 RUC pricing trend Negative prices in RUC indicating excessive physical supply in IFM MIRA 3 Number of binding transmission constraints Informational MIRA 4 MIRA 5 Ratio of physical/virtual supplies and physical/virtual demands in IFM Ratio of physically generated flow to virtually generated flow on binding constraints Informational Informational Slide 7

8 Market Impact Monitoring (3) Objective: Assess market performance/behavior after convergence bidding is implemented and take appropriate actions as required ID Trigger MIRA 6 Price variability/convergence between DA & RT Higher average (weekly/monthly/quarterly) price variability than pre CB MIRA 7 Number of binding nodal constraints in the final IFM solution Informational MIRA 8 IFM market results publication time Informational MIRA 9 Ratio of submitted virtual bids to cleared virtual bids and fees generated by submitted bids Informational Slide 8

9 Operational Monitoring (OM) Slide 9

10 Operational Monitoring (2) Objective: Monitor impact of convergence bidding on day ahead market operations ID Trigger OM 1 Extended credit check outage Software/System outage OM 2 Failure to run DAM Critical errors generated during DAM processes OM 3 Unreliable DAM solution Discretionary OM 4 Excessive physical supply Negative prices in RUC Slide 10

11 Settlements Proactive Monitoring (SPM) Slide 11

12 Settlements Proactive Monitoring (2) Objective: Proactively communicate certain convergence bidding settlements indicators to market participants ID Trigger SPM 1 Unusual profits/losses No specific minimum SPM 2 Unusual CRR settlement rule charges No specific minimum SPM 3 Severe price reversals between DA, HASP & RT No specific minimum SPM 4 Unusually large make whole payments Greater than twice pre convergence bidding level Slide 12

13 Behavioral Monitoring (BM) Slide 13

14 Behavioral Monitoring (2) Objective: Monitor market participant behavior during convergence bidding ID BM 1 BM 2 BM 3 BM 4 LMPM circumvention by participant Persistent losses on virtual bids in the context of manipulation in other products /markets Impact of convergence bidding on RUC commitment and availability procurement (participant) Increase in CRR revenues due to participant s virtual bidding activity Slide 14

15 Q & A Slide 15