Envisioning sustainable and healthy food supply chain: participatory backcasting approach

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1 Envisioning sustainable and healthy food supply chain: participatory backcasting approach Futures for Food 15th International Futures Conference 6 7 June 2013 Turku, Finland Dr. Terhi Latvala MTT Agrifood Research Finland

2 Contents Aim of the study Backcasting method Participatory scenario building Main results Final comments and remarks about the methodology MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/2013 2

3 Aim of the study Identify research and development needs in the food chain in order to enable responsible food choices for consumers MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/2013 3

4 Scenario planning Exploring alternative futures Future Backcasting Starting from future scenario(s) Future Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Present Present

5 Backcasting process I. Pilot expert group discussion II. Scenario building: producer and consumer scenario towards 2030 III.Organisation of participatory SmartFoodChain Future Workshop IV.Analysis of the Workshop results MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/2013 5

6 Scenario building: Pilot expert group MTT s multidisciplinary expert team Agricultural engineering Agricultural economics Animal science Consumer economics Food business management Food science Horticultural science

7 Results from Pilot Expert Workshop Target of the pilot workshop Starting point: two polar future scenarios: desired and not desired Scenarious based on literature review What is right time horizon? Results of the pilot expert workshop Main determinants of the responsible choices identified 1. Consumer behaviour 2. Information based agricultural production chain 3. Logistics 4. Internet technology 5. Traceability and transparency of the food chain Previous foresight studies 3rd SCAR Foresight Exercise Vision 2050 Food2030 Foresight 2011 Mirhami Critical point: No polar future consumption scenarios: difficulties to think and discuss only from the viewpoint of a consumer! => instead development of producer and consumer scenarios to gain more live discussion in the next step MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/2013 7

8 Participatory SmartFoodChain Workshop Group Name Chosen Profile for Discussion Group Size (excluding Facilitator) Primary Production Producer 7 Technology Producer 6 Food Industry and Consumer 10 Information Management Consumers and Retail 1 Consumer 5 Consumers and Retail 2 Consumer 4 MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/2013 8

9 Organisation of SmartFoodChain FutureWorkshop 1. Welcome: goal of the workshop 2. Inspiration speech from IBM Innovation Director 3. Group work 1: Organisation of the group, selection of Consumer or Producer scenario towards Shared discussion: => Chairman of the group highlights the main points of the discussion regarding chosen scenario 5. Scenario modification 6. Group work 2: What are the means that modified scenario will happen? What are the main future research needs? 7. Shared discussion Chairman of the group highlihts the main points of the discussion regarding the research and development needs 8. Short summary of the workshop MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/2013 9

10 Consumer s future scenario for 2030 In 2030 consumer can without any difficulty to achieve information about the origin, production process and other desired information they need about the food product they are buying [ ] Consumer has his or her own profile, where all the previous purchase transactions are saved and in this profile consumer can emphasize the issues relevant for him or her, such as nearby producers or animal welfare or fair price for farmers. In the food store this profile is particularly useful when the self in the store interacts with the consumer profile and proposes those products fitting to the profile and also novelty products. Consumer can change the profiles with their friends, you can buy the profile or you can have it offered from the trustworthy source for example the products especially suitable for consumer health or regarding environmental aspect. Through the profile information about the possible food safety risks can be communicated to consumer. The consumer can easily give also feedback to the actors in the food chain.

11 Reflections to the consumer future scenario Consumer and Retail group 1 Scenario is possible, but only for some consumers Scenario partly present: ordering food from web, traceability to the farm Consumer own activity is important Who is moderating the consumer profile? Setting health criteria for individuals? Food safety risks can be eliminated => Health is more important than safety in the future Incentives for consumers to use their profile Consumer willingness to pay: part of the consumers are willing to pay Consumer and Retail group 2 Is time horizon 2030 right? Who controls the information collected by the consumer profile: what are the rights of consumers and producers to achieve that data? Food marketing channels are changing: food producer can reach consumers more easily eg. by using web applications When information is shared more, the need of consumer understanding is increasing. Consumer has to have right to know what she/he is buying. Food is linked to strong psychological things such as brutality of the production process. Consumer lack of everyday realism of food production process Food Information & MgtSystem The future scenario is representing only the one segment of consumers. This may called as abundance vision and reality may be more heterogeneous This is one vision that makes sense to achieve Multiple marketing channels are arising and the current strong power of the retail sector was questioned. Therefore, also consumer profiles are more demanding to create The affect of social media? Protecting identity? The origin of food and information about the productions process are the strenghs of the Finnish food chain. There has been a lot of similar ideas but has not realised. We have to strieve to that direction, even thought much has not happen during past few years. MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/

12 Main modifications to the scenario o Web-based food shopping is increasing o Food shopping is based on multiple distribution channels: current power of retail sector is decreasing o Pioneers of the consumers need detailed information o Some consumers trust to the origin labelling o Healthiness is one main dimension for consumers o Consumers has full control and they can choose what information is stored about them o Social media has great influence on consumer choices o Consumer education is needed: Consumers will have more realistic understanding about the food production MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/

13 Consumer Means 1. Need for consumer behavioral change: more active, more interested and willing to pay Incentives for consumers: green bonus supporting responsible buying behavior 2. Consumer empowerment: Consumer should press the government to act 3. Consumer education schemes: more realistic view of agricultural production, media criticality Research questions 1. How to ensure that information is valid for the consumers? 2. The effect of childhood background to the chosen diet: vegetarian/ omnivornous 3. The information needs of consumers: healthiness, safety, environment what are really dimensions that have affect on consumer behaviour? MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/

14 Primary production Means 1. Need for producer behavioral change: Seeing positive side of the change Readyness for change needed in the production process Research questions 1. How to built required information interfaces in the food chain? 2. Who is going to trade with all the information? MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/

15 Process industry and retail sector Means 1. Intelligent trash and scarcity of food: too much food is going to the trash bin 2. Consumer oriented food chain: more consumer perspective to the development of food chain Research questions 1. What is value-add for the retail sector? 2. How well the industry and retail sector listens consumer voice? 3. Animal welfare and economic consequences MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/

16 Government and other actors Means 1. More public funding for developing this kind of scenario 2. Information will be buildt by network of actors: not linear chain of actors and information flow from one actor to another Research questions 1. More research about the biological processes: research need about the enviromental effects MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/

17 Final comments and remarks about the backcasting method Good methodology for thinking alternative futures Excellent framework for dialogue among food industry, technology experts, farmers and consumers Some participants still want to think business as usual scenario or other alternative scenarious Food chain involves many actors: the difficulty to think only from consumers viewpoint Difficulty to define exact time horizon and milestones for actions

18 Thank you for you attention! Contact information Dr.Terhi Latvala MTT Agrifood Research Finland MTT Agrifood Research Finland 6/24/

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