The European Marketplace: Development & Outlook

Transcription

1 The European Marketplace: Development & Outlook RECS Market Meeting: Amsterdam, 14th March 2018 William Dixon, Portfolio Manager / Originator

2 Agenda 1 Introduction to Agder Energi 2 Market Demand 3 Market Supply 4 Price Development 5 Conclusions 6 Publishing Statistics

3 Introduction to Agder Energi Activities: Power production 8 TWh per year 49 Hydro power plants MW installed capacity Investments in: new capacity in Norway companies in Germany and Sweden Products & Services: Portfolio management physical power at Nordpool and EPEX balancing markets and intra-day In-house development of IT solutions for power markets Green certificates EECS GOs TÜV SÜD Bra Miljöval naturemade star UK FiT eligible volumes EPD I-REC & US RECS Analysis Locations: Kristiansand - HQ Arendal Berlin Stockholm Zurich

4 Agenda 1 Introduction to Agder Energi 2 Market Demand 3 Market Supply 4 Price Development 5 Conclusions 6 Publishing Statistics

5 Volume (TWh) Market Demand Transaction Cancellations, by Country: All Technologies 487 TWh Year Source: AIB

6 Volume (TWh) Market Demand Renewable Transaction Cancellations, by Technology: All Countries 470 TWh Year Source: AIB

7 Market Demand Germany Austria Italy The Netherlands Switzerland Sweden

8 Market Demand Europe Middle East Africa Americas Asia Pacific Sources: Bloomberg NEF, The Climate Group February 2018

9 Market Demand Europe Middle East Africa Americas Asia Pacific Sources: Bloomberg NEF, The Climate Group February 2018

10 Market Demand Europe Middle East Africa Americas Asia Pacific Sources: Bloomberg NEF, The Climate Group February 2018

11 Market Demand Source: Guardian

12 Market Demand Sources: Guardian, BBC

13 Market Demand Sources: BBC, Guardian

14 Market Demand Sources: BBC, Guardian, EKOenergy

15 Market Demand Sources: BBC, Guardian, EKOenergy, Transport&Environment.org

16 Market Demand Sources: BBC, Guardian, EKOenergy, Transport&Environment.org

17 Agenda 1 Introduction to Agder Energi 2 Market Demand 3 Market Supply 4 Price Development 5 Conclusions 6 Publishing Statistics

18 Volume (TWh) Market Supply GO Production Issuance, by Country: All Technologies 434 TWh Year Source: AIB

19 Volume (TWh) Market Supply GO Production Issuance: Renewable Technologies, all Countries 410 TWh Year Source: AIB

20 Market Supply Sources: AIB, entso-e

21 Market Supply Sources: AIB, entso-e

22 Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Market Supply Source: entso-e

23 Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Market Supply Source: entso-e

24 Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Volume (GWh) Market Supply Source: entso-e

25 Volume (TWh) Market Supply 508 TWh GO Production Issuance: Renewable Technologies 410 TWh -65 TWh -11 TWh -18 TWh -3 TWh -1 TWh -60 GWh Source: AIB

26 Agenda 1 Introduction to Agder Energi 2 Market Demand 3 Market Supply 4 Price Development 5 Conclusions 6 Publishing Statistics

27 Price ( ) Price Development Average Bid/Ask Prices for Hydro GOs (ICAP) Year / Week Source: ICAP

28 Price ( ) Price Development Average Bid/Ask Prices for Hydro GOs (ICAP) Week 4-18: 0,485 Year / Week Source: AES; ICAP

29 Price Development Other Wind Hydro Solar Source: GSE (22/01/18)

30 Price Development Source: ORIGO Jan 2018

31 Agenda 1 Introduction to Agder Energi 2 Market Demand 3 Market Supply 4 Price Development 5 Conclusions 6 Publishing Statistics

32 Conclusions 1. An increased number of market drivers 2. Currently forecast: 53 TWh reduction in EECS area renewable production in Changes in supplier strategies 4. Development of regional markets and preferences Local production for local consumption Year of consumption = Year of production 5. Corporate PPAs could facilitate the return of LEC prices for specific periods and could push voluntary annual purchases to Q1/Q4 generation

33 Agenda 1 Introduction to Agder Energi 2 Market Demand 3 Market Supply 4 Price Development 5 Conclusions 6 Publishing Statistics

34 Publishing Statistics

35 Contact William Dixon Portfolio Manager / Originator Mobile: Thomas Eccard Head of Green Markets Mobile: william.dixon@ae.no thomas.eccard@ae.no HEADQUARTERS Kjøita 18N-4606 Kristiansand NORWAY Phone: green@ae.no ZURICH OFFICE Mühlegasse 33 CH-8001 Zurich SWITZERLAND Phone: green@ae.no BERLIN OFFICE Kurfürstendamm 72 D Berlin GERMANY Phone: