UPDATE ON OECD ACTIVITIES

Transcription

1 UPDATE ON OECD ACTIVITIES Fabienne Fortanier Eurostat BOP WG April

2 Outline Conclusions of OECD WPTGS meeting 2018 WPTGS (21-23 March 2018) WPTGS-WGIIS (20 March 2018) > focus on measuring MNEs Bilateral asymmetry meetings (19-20 March) Digital Trade / Digital Economy 2

3 WPTGS main agenda items WPTGS-WGIIS: measuring multinationals Proof of concept of new OECD database on individual MNEs (ADIMA) WPGTS: Methodology (notably global production arrangements) Global Value Chains / TiVA / bilateral asymmetries Modes of Supply Linking trade and business statistics Use of invoice values for BOP trade in goods Support a joint survey of opinions among BOP and NA regarding the use of invoice values in trade in goods transactions, coordinated among OECD, Eurostat, IMF and ISWGNA Inclusive globalisation Digital trade / economy New ways of organising statistical systems for globalisation/digitalisation (LCUs, big data centres etc) 3

4 New OECD MNE database (ADIMA) Objectives Provide statistics on the scale and scope of international activities of MNEs, taking a whole of the MNE view Structure A register of MNE parent-affiliate structures A set of indicators (at MNE level and country*industry level) A timely monitoring tool of MNEs restructuring Method Combination of traditional data sources with newly emerging sources and innovative Big Data analytics Careful validations and alignment with official statistical concepts Hence: results are timely, scalable, and can be publicly disseminated Coverage Current: 37 US MNEs (pilot) End 2018: 100 largest MNEs globally End 2020: 500 largest MNEs globally Use Build on/contribute to Eurostat EGR and EWS, GLEIF, et al. Aid profiling work of NSOs and reduce asymmetries created by MNEs Contribute to WTO initiative on Trade in Services by Mode of Supply; Support narrative on trade-investment nexus 4

5 Example 1: estimating MNEs international sales by country MNE annual reports provide limited geographical segment data: MNE websites, as marketing channels, will contain more, but unstructured information on most important markets Web-scrape: full text, metadata, sub-domains, and outbound links Disaggregate MNE regional sales to individual countries Apply text analytics (NLP) to develop frequency counts of country mentions Use the geographical location of sub-domains (e.g..fr,.de,.nl) and the relative importance of these websites (page ranks) Use geographical structure of outbound links 5

6 Estimated share of country/ region in MNE sales Country share in estimated sales 37 MNEs Results of pilot test (37 US-based MNEs) Comparison: geographic sales as reported by MNEs, and values derived from web estimation methods Comparison: geographical distribution in US outward FATS sales, and the sum of estimated sales of 37 US MNEs 100% 12% GB CA JP DE 0% 0% Reported share of country/region 100% in MNE sales y = x R² = % 0% 12% y = 0.814x R² = IE SG Country share in US outward FATS 6

7 Conclusions & next steps Wide support among WPTGS members for international approaches to measuring MNEs to assist national development of statistics Several countries volunteered to help check the results (e.g. via correlations, cross-tabulations) Next steps: Continue exploration of new data sources to develop geographical breakdowns of additional indicators (assets and employment as first priorities) Contact MNEs, for example via the OECD BIAC, to inform them of this database and its construction and solicit feedback Development of the Monitoring tool Continue the strong collaboration with Eurostat (EGR/EWG) Further work and research on intellectual property products (IPPs) of MNEs, including implications of the location of ownership of these IPPs. 7

8 Global Value Chains & TiVA Development of TiVA 2018 under way (with data up to 2015, in SNA 2008) Continued work to generate statistical building blocks and improve quality of TiVA: data collection on Supply-Use tables (SUTs); development of extended SUTs; development of Balanced Merchandise Trade and Balanced Services Trade Statistics (with WTO) Coordination of Regional-Global TiVA initiatives to ensure a globally recognised, jointly developed, single measure of TiVA (and international benchmark global SUT and IO table) 8

9 Bilateral trade asymmetries Successful bilateral meetings among 17 countries Strong progress among North American countries as well as US-UK relationships Agreed to share experiences on communication of revisions/changes Create an accessible inventory of national practices from which recommendations on effective communication can be derived for countries ; Develop a reference document, ideally endorsed by all relevant international organisations, that explains reasons for asymmetries in simple terms; including in particular the potential impact of the different preferred country attribution in the statistical standards Asymmetries are NOT data reliability issues OECD to survey results of the meetings and incorporate in balanced trade datasets where possible OECD, Eurostat, NA TiVA continue to work together to integrate and harmonise the datasets 9

10 DIGITAL TRADE / DIGITAL ECONOMY 10

11 Measuring Digital Trade: state of play Development of a Measurement Framework and Typology Strongly supported by countries and IOs in wide consultations (WPTGS, IMF BOPCOM, TFITS, Eurostat meetings) Create inventory of current measurement practices of > 70 countries Via WPTGS stocktaking questionnaires, replicated by IMF for non-oecd countries, to identify biases and gaps in current trade statistics, and methods developed to overcome these Organised TFITS Expert Meeting on Measuring Digital Trade (Oct 2017) Including 18 developed and developing economies and international agencies Agreed on, and informed UNSC about, the start of the development of a TFITS Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade to be released early 2019 Ensured alignment of future WCO data collection and exchange frameworks with statistical requirements for Digital Trade Set up pilot project with UPU, WTO and UNCTAD to exploit UPU data on crossborder postal packages Continued alignment with National Accounts initiatives on Measuring the Digital Economy 11

12 This presentation Recap of the conceptual measurement framework With additional refinements as developed since last year Overview of measurement possibilities and challenges combining the results of: the first stocktaking questionnaire (WPTGS non-oecd countries (IMF)) the second stocktaking questionnaire (WPTGS non-oecd countries (IMF)) the TFITS 2017 Expert Group Meeting The WPTGS 2018 conclusions parallel work in National Accounts where relevant Planned outline of the Table of Contents for the Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade Link to work in the area of National Accounts on measuring the Digital Economy 12

13 Reference documents OECD paper for WPTGS 2017 (conceptual framework) STD/CSSP/WPTGS(2017)3 OECD-IMF paper for IMF BOPCOM 2017 (Inventory of measurement practices (BOPCOM 17-07) TFITS report to the UN Statistical Commission 2018 (Handbook) (E/CN.3/2018/28) 13

14 CONCEPTUAL MEASUREMENT FRAMEWORK 14

15 Conceptual measurement framework for Digital Trade Guiding principle: align (as much as possible) with existing frameworks (BPM6, SNA2008, MSITS 2010, IMTS), existing data sources (e.g. surveys on ecommerce, ICT-use, trade), and ongoing work on the Digital Economy Working definition for Digital Trade: All cross-border trade transactions that are either digitally ordered, platform enabled, or digitally delivered. [NB: focused on nature of transaction] 15

16 Nature of transaction: digitally ordered Definition: the cross-border sale or purchase of a good or service, conducted over computer networks by methods specifically designed for the purpose of receiving or placing orders (NB: follows OECD 2011 ecommerce definition) Clarifications (existing): To be included are orders made over the web, extranet or electronic data interchange To be excluded are orders made by telephone calls, facsimile or manually typed e- mail The goods or services are ordered by those methods, but the payment and the ultimate delivery of the goods or services do not have to be conducted online An e-commerce transaction can be between enterprises, households, individuals, governments, and other public or private organisations 16

17 Clarifications from WPTGS 2018 Stocktaking Agreements on further clarifications: Cross-border ecommerce transactions should include in-app purchases and purchases made via online bidding platforms Cross-border ecommerce transactions should NOT include offline transactions that are formalised using digital signatures When a sample is ordered online but the subsequent (larger) trade deal involves offline interactions and ordering procedures, ONLY the sample is considered to be a cross-border ecommerce transaction (NB samples are excluded from trade transactions) When a trade transaction is concluded via offline ordering processes, but subsequent follow-up orders are made via digital ordering systems (including EDI), ONLY the follow-up orders are considered to be a cross-border ecommerce transaction For further research: What about purchases via WeChat or similar online chat functions NB: these are clarifications intended to provide guidance on the interpretation of the definition (following earlier discussions), not suggestions for separate identification of the flows. 17

18 Nature of the transaction: platform-enabled (working!) definition: cross-border trade transactions that take place via technology enabled web-based buying and selling platforms Typology of platforms: based on e.g. WCO, OECD CTP. Enterprises may combine different types. The recording of trade statistics varies by the type. E-vendor Digital Intermediary Platform (DIP) PM: webshop PM: digitally delivered services Number of sellers 1 (e-vendor) Multiple 1 (the webshop owner) 1 Economic ownership of the products sold Yes No Yes Yes Product offer May include own branded/produced products No own products Predominantly own products May include own branded/produced products Metaphor Online supermarket Online market-place Online specialty shop new delivery channel Examples Amazon ecommerce, JD.com, Zalando, Amazon market place, Alibaba, Uber, Airbnb, Company webshops (e.g. Philips, Samsung, Dell) Netflix, Tencent, Spotify 18

19 Recording trade statistics involving platforms Given their similarities, the conceptual treatment of e-vendors should be no different from off-line wholesalers or retailers although the separate identification of their associated trade flows will be useful for policy purposes. For DIPs, ideally, and in line with the proposed satellite account for digital trade under development, the intermediation fee should be separately identified (as a trade-related service) from the goods and services that are provided Either if they are explicitly charged (e.g. as a percentage of each transaction, to be paid by buyer, supplier, or both), or if they can be implicitly calculated e.g. when the DIP retains a certain percentage of the transaction (from the seller). Considering as well that the DIP may be resident in another country from the buyer, seller, or both: Seller DIP Buyer Possible treatment Ctry A Ctry A Ctry B import by country B of product and intermediation services from country A Ctry A Ctry B Ctry B import by country B of product from country A + export of intermediation services from B to A Ctry A Ctry B Ctry A import by country A of intermediation services from country B Ctry A Ctry C Ctry B import by country B of product from country A & intermediation services from country C & imports of intermediation services by A from C 19

20 WPTGS: agree with recording of transactions related to DIPs on a net basis Situation (example) Data Digital Intermediary Platform Data border Monetary transaction Matchmaking service Seller Product/ service Buyer Gross recording (NOT proposed) Digital Intermediary Platform Net recording Digital Intermediary Platform border Export of product/ service Import of Product/ service + intermediation fee border Intermediation fee (trade-related service) Seller Buyer Seller Product/ service Buyer 20

21 Nature of the transaction: digitally delivered Digitally delivered trade: All cross-border trade transactions that are delivered remotely over ICT networks (i.e. following the definition of ICT-enabled services (by TGServ Task Group) Mostly applicable to services [but: 3d printing?] While a subset EBOPS 2010 items were identified as potentially ICT enabled, more work is necessary to identify in practice what part of services is actually delivered through digital means Strong connection with work on Mode 1 (services by Modes of Supply) First experiences of countries show that this is feasible 21

22 Product ( what ) Traditional distinction in trade: Goods vs services Complementary groupings of existing HS, CPC or EBOPS codes have been / are being developed to identify which goods/services are digital and which ones not (e.g. digital goods, digital enablers, ICT services ) Important to distinguish between the nature of transaction (which may or may not be digital) and the nature of the product (again, may or may not be digital ) BUT: consensus is emerging that digitally delivered services are always digital products BUT: importance of data/information flows that may not result in monetary transaction, but may support one e.g. Facebook: advertising revenue is captured in trade statistics, the data flows are currently not e.g. Use of public goods (open-source/free software)> currently no imputations are made 22

23 Actors involved ( who ) Traditionally, international trade primarily involves enterprises (Business-to-Business, B2B) Digital trade: new actors and interactions Cross-border Business-to-Consumers (B2C) Cross-border Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) (the sharing economy) Cross-border Business-to-Government (B2G) (e-procurement) >> framework follows National Accounts breakdown by (domestic) institutional sectors Build upon existing frameworks Potentially introduce further breakdowns such as financial/nonfinancial corporations, or breakdowns by firm size 23

24 Examples of digital trade by category 24

25 MEASUREMENT: GAPS AND WAYS FORWARD 25

26 Measurement: gaps and ways forward Ideally: Any potential under-coverage issues (e.g related to de minimis, fully digital services) should be identified and addressed And in a perfect world Digital trade could be separately identified within existing merchandise/services statistics With breakdowns by product and partner With breakdown by the three components (ordered/facilitated/delivered) With a separate identification of the DIP margins With an identification of the institutional sector of the counterparts We re unlikely to get to Utopia but important progress is being made: Pilot-testing of useful approaches and emerging methodologies New data sources (e.g. customs, big data) 26

27 Merchandise trade: coverage Digital trade leads to increase in small value transactions OECD-IMF 2017 stocktaking questionnaire: 1-3% of international trade below de minimis > half of OECD countries make adjustments in BOP, but methods can improve Potential new data sources: Customs: WCO Working Group on Ecommerce: identify and monitor e- commerce transactions in customs records (see later presentations) WPTGS 2018 Stocktaking: 12 countries indicated that electronic customs declarations were investigated/used for statistical goals Postal Data: WPTGS 2018 Stocktaking: 7 countries interested in pilot study with OECD, UPU, UNCTAD and WTO, to compare UPU data on postal packages and small value transactions as a potential data source for cross-border merchandise ecommerce transactions. Many others expressed an interest in the results 27

28 Merchandise/services trade: digital ordering Existing data-sources contain little to no information on crossborder dimension of digital ordering Enterprise surveys on e-commerce, collecting information on e.g. % of sales or purchases via e-commerce Some questions have been added to Eurostat survey to ask about % of ecommerce sales to foreign markets (but typically still reported in % of enterprises engaged in instead of % of sales) Household surveys on ICT use, collecting data on e.g. % of households purchasing online, types of products purchased Ongoing work: WPTGS Stocktaking 2018: several countries have undertaken studies on cross-border ecommerce or formalised task groups, many plan to do so going forward 28

29 Merchandise/services trade: digital ordering Possible avenues identified for further statistical development: Adding additional questions to (TIS and/or ecommerce) surveys (but: limits due to respondents burden) Data linking (e.g. TEC/STEC for certain NACE/ISIC industries; or linking trade statistics and ICT-use surveys possibly in combination with BEC to separate B2B/B2C transactions) Use of credit card data In EU: MOSS data for online services transactions (digitally ordered AND delivered) 29

30 Digital Intermediary Platforms in trade Share of trade facilitated via DIPs (WPTGS 2018 Stocktaking) 5 countries can identify the # of enterprises and/or value of trade using DIPs (but no breakdown between resident and non-resident channels) Travel: 11 countries have tourism expenditure surveys with questions on digital ordering; an additional 5 on whether DIPs were used Challenges remain: Separating the intermediation services fees from the value of service provided Estimations may be developed using known fee-structures of large DIPs Part may already be covered in trade related services, but further investigation would be needed Identifying transactions involving non-resident DIPs Separate identification of DIPs in business register (no formal industry classification) 30

31 Digital delivery WPTGS 2018 Stocktaking: 9 countries made progress in measuring digitally downloadable products since last year, using European MOSS data, credit card data and online payment methods (e.g. PayPal) 3 countries have, or will have, information on digitally downloadable products a breakdown between cross-border and domestic transactions may however place too much burden on respondents 6 countries reported starting work on measuring trade by Mode of Supply (Mode 1 digitally delivery) Services delivered to consumers (both B2C and C2C) Optimal source is likely household surveys in combination with credit card data Complementary sources: Gaming Authorities, Apple and Google data, tourism surveys, LFS and tax records. 31

32 NEXT STEPS 32

33 Towards an inter-agency Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade Draft Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction including relationship with work on measuring the digital economy and links to related work (e.g. on ecommerce readiness) Chapter 2. Policy questions on digital trade Chapter 3. Conceptual framework for digital trade Chapter 4. Compiling digitally ordered goods and services Chapter 5. Compiling transactions facilitated by digital platforms Chapter 6. Compiling digitally delivered transactions Chapter 7. Compiling digital products: goods and services Chapter 8. Conclusions and next steps 33

34 Handbook Process Handbook drafted as Inter-Agency publication, by the TFITS Process coordinated by OECD and WTO (as TFITS co-chairs) Incorporate contributions from TFITS members and national compilers Ensure alignment with parallel work in National Accounts Aim to have a first full draft by September 2018 for consultation with developed and developing countries Among others, through the existing bodies of Task Force members (including WPTGS and IMF BOPCOM, amongst others) The results are presented in a report for the UN SC in

35 WPTGS discussions on Handbook WPTGS highlighted the need for further research on warehouses managed by non-resident digital intermediaries (set up to serve domestic and foreign markets), and how these transactions related in particular to merchanting. Strong call to consider whether classification systems (in particular industry classifications) were well equipped to deal with the challenges of digital trade. The Bureau also indicated that the WPTGS stocktaking survey should be updated regularly to monitor progress. A public webpage on the OECD website with all relevant international documents, as well as links to published results in countries, will also be helpful to ensure all members have easy access to all relevant information. 35

36 G20 process - next steps OECD, on behalf of the TFITS, will prepare a draft note for the 2018 G20 TIWG meeting in Argentina Update about the work to-date, including the draft definition and typology of digital trade; an overview of gaps in measuring and mapping digital trade; emerging and ongoing work to address these gaps, and next steps where further work and investments will be needed. And encouraging G20 politicians to engage with NSOs and CBs towards identifying priorities and next steps in closing the measurement gaps Any relevant feedback from the G20 meeting, including e.g. on policy priorities, will be incorporated in the Interagency Handbook on Digital trade 36

37 Digital economy Main questions: the digital transformation is largely hidden in the core economic accounts and challenges our conceptual frameworks and measurement approaches Volume and price measurement? Statistical recording of knowledge embodied in data? Consumer surplus and free services Measurement of informal activities Raising questions about the participative production of consumers More generally: are we capturing all activities? 37

38 OECD Advisory Group on Measuring GDP in a Digitalised Economy Consists of 40 members: NSOs, Eurostat, IMF, UN, and members of OECD WPMADE Main objective: develop a satellite account on the digital economy Survey of Digital Economy Typology Initial framework based on digital trade framework Questions on country practices with regards to digital intermediaries Identifying data gaps How to highlight the digital economy 38

39 Framework: digital economy 39

40 Thank you! Contact: 40