HSMAI New York 2013 Outlook

Transcription

1 HSMAI New York 2013 Outlook Business Intelligence Tim Hart EVP 11/14/2012

2 TravelClick gathers a vast amount of market intelligence. Data Set Rate Agency Demand We gather over 10 billion rates per month from over hundreds of sources We gather rates from more than 356 sources: 196 hotel brand.com sites 160 online travel agencies GDS We have 100% of reservations made through the four major GDS We receive every booking from: Sabre Galileo Worldspan Amadeus We receive daily future demand data from major brands for a 365- day horizon We receive all reservations and group sales blocks from: Marriott Four Seasons Hilton Gaylord Hyatt Omni Intercontinental Kimpton Starwood Loews Wyndham* Mandarin La Quinta* Oriental Future Historical Frequency Daily 3x/Week 2x/Week 2

3 Demand participation continues to grow, from large and small brands to independent hotels. Founding Partners Brands Independent * * NAFS Only Note: Wyndham, LaQuinta, SAX, Destination, Allerton, and Dolce are in the certification process; with targeted completion in Q4 of

4 We make our data available on the industry s leading business intelligence platform Hotelligence Intuitive & easy-to-use Go-deep into details All data in one place In 2013, rate, agency, and demand data integrated on a single platform Interactive dashboards, activity-based reports and alerts Guided analytics and filtering allow users to view data from different angles Tailored to specific roles Answers questions for key roles within your properties 4

5 Market Outlook 5

6 Nationally, business on the books for the coming 12 months is up 1% over same time last year. 16,000,000 12,000,000 Top 25 North American Markets 24.0% 18.0% Room Nights 8,000,000 4,000, % 6.0% 0.0% Var % to LY -4,000, % -8,000,000 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var % -12.0% 6

7 New York s outlook is slightly better, with committed room nights for the coming year up 3.5%. Room Nights 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , ,000 New York Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var % 75.0% 65.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% -15.0% -25.0% Var % to LY 7

8 Nationally, transient occupancy and ADR is up, but group occupancy has fallen behind same time last year and group ADR growth has slowed. Room Nights ADR Group -0.9% +1.1% Transient Business Transient Leisure +5.3% +5.4% +6.7% +4.5% Negotiated, Retail Discount, Qualified, Wholesale Year over year variance % to same time last year for demand on the books for future 12 months in top 25 North American markets 8

9 The outlook by segment for New York is similar, but with group down in both occupancy and ADR. Group Top 25 Markets Room Nights ADR -0.9% +1.1% New York Room Nights ADR -0.4% -2.4% Transient Business Transient Leisure +5.3% +5.4% +6.7% +4.5% +6.7% +1.8% +8.5% +4.3% 9

10 The recent pace of new group business sold has been slow, resulting in the weaker group position heading into Year over Year Variance in Group Room Nights Next 12 Months On The Books Recent Pace Top 25 Markets -0.9% -10.3% New York -0.4% -25.0% On the Books Recent Pace Group room nights committed for next 12 months versus same time last year New group sales (room nights committed) in last 30 days versus same period last year 10

11 While recent new group sales for 2013 are down for all months, the outlook for late summer is the weakest. 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% -60.0% New York Group New Sales (past 30 days) and On the Books Year over Year Variance Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct OTB Var % New Sales Var % Avg OTB Var% Avg New Sales Var % 11

12 Nationally, group sales pace has been trending behind last year s pace for each quarter in our horizon. Q Q % 5.00% 0.00% % % % % % OTB Pace Aug Sept Oct Nov 0.00% -5.00% % % % OTB Pace Aug Sept Oct Nov Q Q % 0.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % % % OTB Pace Aug Sept Oct Nov -5.00% % % % % OTB Pace Aug Sept Oct Nov 12

13 New York transient advance booking pace is relatively strong, particularly in the leisure segment. 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Business Occ ADR -10.0% 20.0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Leisure 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 13

14 The transient booking window has been lengthening over the course of 2012, perhaps distorting year over year comparisons in demand growth. 22 Average Booking Lead Time New York, Transient Adv Bkg Days LY Adv Bkg Days 14

15 Public retail pricing heading into the summer of 2013 has declined, perhaps as the group outlook began to deteriorate. $400 $350 Average Public Rates New York OTA, WEB, GDS Channels $300 $250 $200 $150 1/6/2013 1/13/2013 1/20/2013 1/27/2013 2/3/2013 2/10/2013 2/17/2013 2/24/2013 3/3/2013 3/10/2013 3/17/2013 3/24/2013 3/31/2013 4/7/2013 4/14/2013 4/21/2013 4/28/2013 5/5/2013 5/12/2013 5/19/2013 5/26/2013 6/2/2013 6/9/2013 6/16/2013 6/23/2013 6/30/2013 8/1/2012 9/1/ /1/

16 Channel Distribution 16

17 Transient channel mix has continued its shift online, with Brand.com and OTA s increasing their share of transient bookings over the last year. GDS, 19% OTA, 16% DIR, 19% Channel Share of Transient Segment New York Q3, 2012 WEB, 26% CRS, 19% Channel TY Mix LY Mix Var % WEB (Brand.com) 26.3% 24.3% 8.4% CRS (Voice) 18.7% 18.9% -0.9% DIR (Property) 19.2% 22.2% -13.4% GDS 19.5% 19.7% -1.4% OTA 16.3% 14.9% 9.4% 17

18 Expedia and its family of sites continue to lead in OTA channel share. Priceline has significant share as well. ORB TRV OTA-OTH TVW PRL HOT HCM EXP Booking.com? 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% Room Nights Var% to Last Year Q3, New York Var % to LY Var% All 18

19 Discounts off retail rates vary significantly by OTA. Opaque sites naturally offer the deepest discounts. $ $ New York $ $ $ $50.00 $0.00 ADR Retail ADR 19

20 But OTA discounts are narrowing. OTA rate growth has exceeded retail rate growth, nationally and in New York as well. 10.0% ADR Variance % to Last Year Q3, % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% All Mkts OTA Retail New York 20

21 Summary Thoughts on 2013 Uncertainty (Fiscal Cliff, Overall Economy) Slow group demand pace = less group base heading into 2013 Lowered demand expectations showing up in advance pricing, hindering ADR growth 21

22 Tim Hart November 14, 2012 This Presentation is Online: 22