Monitoring, Analysis and Response Kit

Transcription

1 Monitoring, Analysis and Response Kit An LRP Learning Alliance Initiative Suzanne Andrews, Markets and Agriculture Specialist

2 MARKit Background Local and Regional Procurement Learning Alliance (LRP LA) formed to support the research agenda in the 2008 USDA LRP Pilot to coordinate between PVOs implementing pilots, and to research the timeliness, cost-effectiveness and market impact of LRP projects compared to transoceanic food aid. Market monitoring and analysis were identified as key challenges during implementation. CARE and CRS submitted a proposal to TOPS for the development of a market monitoring toolkit.

3 MARKit Objectives 1. Market analysis/monitoring is integrated into all types of food assistance programs to mitigate negative impacts on markets. 2. Price data is analyzed by project managers in real time, and used to make adjustments to programs. 3. Price data is managed and analyzed on a single interagency platform.

4 Why include traditional food aid? Due to inevitably imperfect targeting, food aid clearly displaces commercial sales of food in recipient economies. -Chris Barrett, 2002

5 MARKit Includes Key Question Monitoring, Analysis and Response Kit Understand Markets Collect Data Analyze Prices Analyze the Context Assess the Risk Adapt if necessary Why monitor markets? How do we collect standard, comparable price data? How have prices changed? What is causing the change in prices? What is the risk of continuing the intervention? How can negative price impacts be mitigated? Market and food security training for non-specialist food assistance program managers Commodity identification guidelines, standard metrics, enumeration processes Market and commodities to graphing guidelines, questions for analysis and how to interpret graphs Market reference guidance to inform qualitative market analysis and assess implications for food assistance programs Intervention risk analysis process to assess the risk of continuing the implementation as planned. Adaptation guidelines to respond to market impacts

6 Step 1: Understand Markets In the food assistance world, food prices play an important role four categories of food security: Availability: Food prices tend to rise as the supply of food falls in relation to demand, and they tend to fall when supply expands in relation to demand (e.g., a bumper harvest). Access: Most of the world s poor are net purchasers of staple foods, and food purchases make up a large proportion of their budgets. When food prices increase or production and/or income levels drop, household food security may be threatened. Producer Incentives: Food prices are the primary incentive for those who produce food crops for the market. As food prices fall, incentives to invest diminish, compromising food production and, by extension, long term food security. Market integration: Prices also serve as a measure of market integration. This is the measure of how prices in one market move in relation to other markets. In a well-integrated market system, where goods are exchanged freely between markets, prices will change in concert, with a price increase in one market quickly followed by a price increase in a nearby market. Observing Market Integration The level of market integration in a given market can be observed by graphing prices in the market of interest alongside national prices or nearby markets. If prices follow similar patterns, moving in uniform, the markets are integrated. If prices are slow to respond to changes in nearby markets or don t follow similar patterns, the markets are not well-integrated.

7 Step 2: Collect Data 1. Identify the markets and commodities to monitor 2. Identify secondary data sources Secondary Sources for Price Data FAO Global Information and Early Warning System GIEWS. Provides searchable retail and/or wholesale commodity prices for sentinel markets. Allows the user to generate graphs to compare commodity prices over time and across markets, and to download data to excel with references for all price information. GIEWS also publishes a country briefs and a Global food price monitor, providing analysis of food prices and the national food security situation. World Food Program Set up your primary enumeration system Commodity Reference Sheet Variety to monitor: Name in local languages: Local measure: Weight of local measure: Size: USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network FEWS NET. Esoko. Chicago Board of Trade. South African Grain Information Service SAGIS. Distinguishing characteristics:

8 Step 3: Analyze Prices Simple visual analysis of price data across time, markets and commodities to answer the following questions: 1. How do this year s prices compare to historical prices and seasonal trends? 2. How do this year s prices compare to a chosen reference year? 3. Where do these price movements fit into the intervention calendar? 4. How are the prices of commodities in the same market moving in relation to each other? 5. What is the relationship of prices of one commodity across markets, and compared to a control market? 6. How do food prices/changes in local markets compare to global food prices?

9 Step 4: Analyze the Context Identify the underlying causes for the price change, and implications for the intervention

10 Step 5: Assess the Risk Once the factors contributing to the price change are identified and analyzed: 1. Review the relationship between the intervention and the market system: what is the risk that continuing the intervention will exacerbate the price change? 2. Assess the risk of changing the program: food security objectives, impact on market actors, transparency, and Do No Harm.

11 Step 6: Adapt if necessary Minor adjustments lessons learned. does not warrant immediate change, programmatic flexibility is limited and/or the findings are identified after project implementation findings and recommendations should be shared with the broader food assistance community in the form of lessons learned and incorporated into new proposals/project design Minor adjustments pressing. Intervention is causing minor market distortion or conditions have changed in minor ways Requires adjustments to current intervention: shifts in quantity, frequency, commodity choice or other aspects of the implementation of intervention Drastic adjustment. Intervention is directly causing changes in market prices and/or conditions have drastically changed Changing the modality of the intervention, or drastic adjustments to the quantity distributed may be required. This kind of change is likely to require permission from the donor and renegotiation of contracts.

12 Step 6: Adapt if necessary Identify and analyze program adjustments. Adjustments for LRP Programs Cash Voucher LRP Modality If this happens: Consider the adaptation Basic requirements to implement Price spikes coincide with the intervention and, traders weren t adequately prepared for first distribution. Price spikes coincide with distribution, limited participation of traders. Price spikes coincide with distribution, bottleneck in the supply chain. Communicate with traders Advertise to additional traders Market support in cash/voucher distribution Time and access to traders Time and access to traders Additional funding, market expertise to design response. Price spikes linked to a shortage specific to one commodity, substitute available in the local market. Farmer organizations or smaller venders are struggling contract. g to fill Commodity Specifications in voucher programs Producer/trader support in LRP procurement Appropriate substitute, communication with venders, funding to reprint vouchers Additional funding, producer/market expertise

13 Examples of Programmatic Response World Vision, Acholi Voucher Project Flexible vouchers allow beneficiaries to buy substitute grains Land O Lakes Zambia Local Purchase Project Land O'Lakes distributes milling vouchers to safeguard the businesses of hammer millers. During implementation of the Land O Lakes local purchase project, monitoring revealed that the distribution of milled maize had unintentionally reduced business for hammer mills. In response, the project switched to unmilled maize grain and provided paper vouchers to beneficiaries to exchange for milling services. Land O Lakes partnered with MTN to use mobile money to reimburse millers and MTN facilitated the registration of all the milling entrepreneurs with the Patents and Companies Registration Authority to formalize their businesses. Between December 2010 and July 2011maize prices rose from $196/MT to a peak high of $466/MT. World Vision considered increasing the voucher value, however when voucher receipts were reviewed, the program managers saw that the beneficiaries themselves had already adjusted to the market changes, switching from maize to a less expensive cereal-sorghum. This demonstrates the importance of project level analysis, and the benefits of a flexible voucher system.

14 The Data Integration Initiative Aggregate Data Single platform approach Analyze Prices Why prioritize data integration? 1. Standardized data collection processes, measurements, improving data quality and comparability. 2. Simplified coordination and no duplication of efforts. Where multiple agencies are responding in one area, price information and enumeration responsibility can be shared. 3. Automated analytics on one platform, simplified analysis process to save time and redirect resources to qualitative analysis to inform decisions.

15 WFP VAM Price Tool

16 Development Process Background research, surveys and framework development Washington DC Workshop August 2013 Practitioner Workshop Niger October 2013 LRP Alliance MARKit Framework Workshop January 2013 Academic, PVO and Donor Review TOPS Knowledge Sharing Event Burkina Faso Fall 2013 Ghana development workshop and Esoko training February 2013 MARKit Training and Guidebook Developed MARKit Toolkit Published December 2013

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