Launch Ceremony 2 nd Edition of the Provincial Briefs Report. Kabul, June 10 th Ministry of Economy Conference Hall

Transcription

1 Launch Ceremony 2 nd Edition of the Provincial Briefs Report Kabul, June 10 th Ministry of Economy Conference Hall

2 2 Motivation i. Availability of statistics is key to monitoring impact of development interventions ii. Disaggregated statistics at the subnational level very important in Afghanistan iii. Provincial briefs provide a tool to assess progress and better target interventions at the provincial level.

3 3 Potential Audience Policy makers Local administrators and civil society Development partners and international community Students and researchers

4 4 2 nd Edition of the Provincial Briefs (NRVA ) Opportunities Use data from both survey rounds to look at levels and trends Challenges Ensure definition of indicators consistent over time (comment trend analysis can only be done if indicators are constructed in the same way in both survey years) Online data tool - Allows flexibility in data analysis by users. Each indicator presented at the national level and disaggregated by: - Urban /Rural (bar chart) - Region (bar chart) - Province (map and bar chart)

5 5 Indicators Total of 37 indicators, organized in 9 thematic areas 1. Area and Population 2007/ /12 Area Population Rural population 2. Poverty and Inequality 2007/ /12 Poverty rate (revised) Depth of poverty (revised) Average consumption of the poor as % of PL Per capita monthly total consumption (revised) (revised) Inequality (revised) 3. Food security 2007/ /12 Calorie deficiency (revised) Depth of calorie deficiency (revised) Inadequate dietary diversity (revised) Protein deficiency (revised) 4. Labor market 2007/ /12 Participation rate Employment-population ratio Unemployment rate Underemployment rate Literate labor force Can be constructed but not comparable Revision of data to exclude provinces of Helmand and Khost. These two provinces due to problems with consumption measurement in NRVA have been dropped from the analysis of indicators in the Poverty and Inequality and Food Security sections.

6 6 Selection of indicators 5. Sectors of employment 2007/ /12 Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Services Public administration/government Can be constructed but not comparable 6. Education 2007/ /12 Literacy rate age 14+ Average years of schooling age 18+ Net attendance rate, primary school Net attendance rate, secondary school 7. Gender 2007/ /12 Female Literacy rate age 14+ Girls to boys net attendance ratio, primary Girls to boys net attendance ratio, secondary Female participation rate 8. Health 2007/08 Access to skilled antenatal care Births attended by skilled attendants Full immunization rate among children Children with no vaccination Cannot be constructed

7 7 Selection of indicators 9. Access to services and infrastructure 2007/ /12 Safe drinking water Sanitary toilet Electricity Structure of the report 1. NATIONAL PROFILE NEW 2. PROVINCIAL PROFILE 3. TECHNICAL APPENDIX NEW 4. GLOSSARY

8 8 ONLINE DATA TOOL - Online data tool allows users to : 1. Visualize data on all indicators reported in the Briefs using maps and bar charts 2. Download data for customized analysis

9 9 Data Visualization STEP 1: Select indicator from the drop down menu: For example: Poverty Rate

10 Definition of the indicator from Glossary section of Briefs Map of the indicator by Province for each survey year (orange: 2011 and blue: 2007). Darker color corresponds to higher levels of the indicator, in this case higher poverty. Legend indicates the minimum and maximum value of the indicator.

11 Value of the indicator at the National level for the two survey years Value of the indicator in Rural and Urban areas for the two survey years Value of the indicator at the Regional level for the two survey years Value of the indicator at the Provincial level for the two survey years

12 12 Data download Online data tool provides the possibility to download data for user-customized analysis. Data can be accessed and downloaded by: 1. Clicking on the data tab 2. Clicking on map or bar charts

13 13 Poverty and Inequality: some examples Farah Kandahar Faryab Nimroz Balkh Kabul Paktya Kapisa Logar Nooristan Baghlan Paktika Panjsher Herat Nangarhar Parwan Badghis Daykundi Wardak Kunduz Bamyan Kunarha Ghazni Urozgan Samangan Jawzjan Ghor Sar-I-Pul Badakhshan Zabul Laghman Takhar Poverty Rate (%) EXAMPLE 1: poverty increase Ghazni Ghazni National 2007/ / /12 Poverty and Inequality (a) Poverty rate (%) Depth of poverty (%) Average consumption of the poor as % of PL Per capita monthly consumption (Afs, 2011) 2,261 2,262 2,410 Gini index (%) Poverty headcount more than doubled and depth of poverty increased more than 4 times both indicators are above the national average. Worsening of consumption is particularly strong for the poor. In fact: - No change in average consumption between the two survey - Poor in are consuming less as a share to the poverty line than they were in The fact that only one part of the population has been experiencing a decline in welfare is reflected by an increase of inequality (Gini coefficient)

14 14 Poverty and Inequality: Example 2 Farah Kandahar Faryab Nimroz Balkh Kabul Paktya Kapisa Logar Nooristan Baghlan Paktika Panjsher Herat Nangarhar Parwan Badghis Daykundi Wardak Kunduz Bamyan Kunarha Ghazni Urozgan Samangan Jawzjan Ghor Sar-I-Pul Badakhsh Zabul Laghman Takhar Poverty Rate (%) EXAMPLE 2: Poverty declines Balkh Balkh National 2007/ / /12 Poverty and Inequality (a) Poverty rate (%) Depth of poverty (%) Average consumption of the poor as % of PL Per capita monthly consumption (Afs, 2011) 1,795 2,796 2,410 Gini index (%) Poverty headcount declined by 38 percentage points (64%) and it is now below the national average. Similar progress captured by the decline in poverty depth meaning that there are fewer poor in the province and that those who remain poor are less far from escaping poverty. Welfare progress is also confirmed by the increase in per capita consumption, which is 56% higher than in Improvement in welfare have not been equal for all inhabitants which is indicated by the increase in inequality.

15 15 Food Security (change example and use Takhar instead) Wardak Farah Kapisa Nangarhar Kunarha Baghlan Nimroz Panjsher Ghor Herat Paktika Daykundi Kabul Jawzjan Balkh Kandahar Parwan Paktya Faryab Samangan Bamyan Kunduz Logar Takhar Sar-I-Pul Ghazni Nooristan Urozgan Laghman Badghis Badakhsh Zabul Calorie Deficiency (%) Zabul Zabul National 2007/ / /12 Food Security Calorie deficiency (%) Severe calorie deficiency (%) Protein deficiency (%) Inadequate dietary diversity (% ) Strong decline over time of the calorie intake: 82 percent of the population consuming less than 2100 Kcal per day (calorie deficiency); 23.6 percent less than 1500 Kcal (severe calorie deficiency). Strong deterioration in quality of the diet: 48 percent consuming less than 50 grams of protein per day and 20 percent with inadequate diet diversity

16 16 Food Security Example of possible customized analysis FACT: Due to a lack of rain, losses of ground water and an approximately two million MT cereal production deficit, the Afghan government declared that the northern half of the country was drought affected on 23 July CALORIE DEFICIENCY (%) IN DROUGHT AFFECTED PROVINCES 14 out of Afghanistan 34 provinces were affected by the drought, namely: Takhar, Sar-e-Pul, Samangan, Kunduz, Jawzian, Herat, Ghor, Faryab, Daykundi, Bamyan, Balk, Baglan, Badghis and Badakshan Data show deterioration of food security in all drought affected provinces with two exceptions: Balkh, Herat User can then continue the analysis to answer other question such as (among others) - What is the relation poverty/food security trends; - Sectoral structure of the economy and differential impact of drought

17 17 Labor market Analysis of labor market trends limited by data comparability issues Provincial Briefs report labor market indicators based on NRVA only. Indicators include: Labor Market indicators Sectors of Employment Participation rate (%) Agriculture (%) Employment population rate (%) Manufacturing (%) Unemployment rate (%) Construction (%) Underemployment rate (%) Services (%) Literate labor force (%) Public administration/government (%) Examples of questions that can be answered with only one round of data - How well does each Province do compared with the National average on indicators such as - What is the sectoral distribution of employment in a Province and how does it compare with the rest of the country?...

18 18 Labor Market: Example (Balkh) Province achieved good progress in poverty reduction and, despite being affected by drought, food security improved. How can analysis of LM in complement the picture? Balkh National 2011/ /12 Labor Market (b) Participation rate (%) Employment population rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) Underemployment rate (%) Literate labor force (%) Well performing labor market, literate labor force and diversified economy: Relatively low reliance on agriculture sector Sectors of Employment (b) Among provinces with highest development of manufacturing sector Balkh National 2011/ /12 Agriculture (%) Manufacturing (%) Construction (%) Services (%) Public administration/government (%)

19 19 Education Outcomes Gender gap in education Panjsher Kapisa Daykundi Kabul Laghman Badakhshan Samangan Faryab Bamyan Balkh Jawzjan Baghlan Sar-I-Pul Logar Parwan Ghor Takhar Herat Ghazni Nangarhar Badghis Farah Khost Paktika Paktya Kunarha Wardak Nimroz Kunduz Nooristan Kandahar Helmand Zabul Urozgan Net attendance rate, primary school (%) Girls to Boys Net Attendance Ratio, Primary (%) Herat Nimroz Panjsher Badakhs Daykundi Balkh Bamyan Nooristan Laghman Kabul Sar-I-Pul 2007 Kapisa Baghlan Takhar Badghis Faryab Jawzjan Ghor Samangan Parwan Kandahar Nangarhar Khost Logar Farah Kunarha Kunduz Ghazni Helmand Paktya Wardak Zabul Paktika Urozgan A lot of efforts to improve children education, particularly that of girls: Still: A lot of variation between provinces: - Primary school attendance in Panjsher 20 times higher than Uruzgan; - Panjsher: no difference in enrollment of boys or girls; Uruzgan: only 10 girls in school every 100 boys

20 20 Education and gender gap in education on a map Net attendance rate, primary school (%) Girls to Boys Net Attendance Ratio, Primary (%)

21 Access to services - Safe Drinking Water 21 Kabul Balkh Paktya Panjsher Takhar Paktika Farah Laghman Herat Kandahar Badghis Nangarh Logar Ghazni Parwan Badakhs Khost Kapisa Faryab Kunarha Helmand Baghlan Kunduz Jawzjan Sar-I-Pul Bamyan Samangan Ghor Daykundi Nooristan Wardak Nimroz Zabul Urozgan Significant progress at the national level, mostly driven by improvement in rural areas; Still strong differences between provinces in levels and trends; - Panjsher & Paktya highest improvement over time anything to lean? What made a difference?... - Strong deterioration in access to water in Zabul, Kunarha, Jawzian, Urozgan what happened?

22 Access services: Electricity 22 Logar Bamyan Daykundi Paktika Ghor Kabul Parwan Sar-e-Pul Kandahar Faryab Kapisa Panjsher Balkh Paktya Ghazni Farah Wardak Herat Laghman Baghlan Jawzjan Samangan Takhar adakhshan Kunduz Nimroz Khost Nangarhar Badghis Helmand Nooristan Kunarha Zabul Urozgan Significant progress especially in rural areas mostly driven by the expansion in the use of solar energy sources. Improvement in almost all provinces, but different scale of progress, for example: - Paktika, had third to worst access to electricity in 2007 (only 6%), now among top 4 provinces (92%) - Ghazni, Kabul no much progress since 2007