The next wave of scholarly communication. Keith Webster 2 September 2009

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2 The next wave of scholarly communication Keith Webster 2 September 2009

3 Outline The STM industry Economic pressures Reactions and responses Information: Web 2.0 research Influence: open access and data sharing Impact: research evaluation

4 Scholarly communication in STM How big is the field? Thomson Reuters indexes 23,000 journal titles, with 10,000+ in Web of Science 700 million references over 100 years 40 million new references added each year

5 Journal titles In all languages, estimates vary between 45,000 and 90,000 The Directory of Open Access Journals lists almost 4,500 titles A university library will have access to around 50,000 titles The major publishers together produce around 6,000 titles - but dominate the market

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7 The STM publishing industry $21.8 billion in revenues in percent growth over 2006 Traditional STM companies account for 68 percent of market; geophysical data providers the remainder

8 The big deal - clients Access to vast quantities of content Access to deep archives Wider dissemination of publications Search and discovery tools - eg Google Scholar and Summon - taking people direct to article Clients expect sophisticated data mining tools

9 The big deal - librarians Access to vast numbers of titles Bunles bought on basis of package value - titles, downloads etc - than on assessment of individual title quality Harder to select or cancel individual titles Journal brands replaced by package brands

10 The big deal - publishers Economies of scale in the big few making it hard for smaller publishers to compete Only the big few can afford to develop sophisticated services Bundling has allowed publishers to drop major price increases for specific titles for incremental increases on the bundle This is justified often by quality rather than quantity

11 The big deal - publishers Little financial incentive to launch new titles - the value of adding a new title to the package is less than the investment cost Majority of bundle use is by top 10% of titles - a lifeline for lesser-used titles Citations were currency of print world - usage is today s measure Publishers are working to refine measures of usage

12 Where is the market going? STM companies will continue to acquire businesses in adjacent markets Dependence on online revenue and flat growth in mature markets will stimulate growth through innovation Players will look increasingly for economies of scale - and for global revenue generators

13 Funding Ever-increasing expenditure on healthcare in most nations will support continued expansion of the medical subsegment of the STM market Publishers will look to offset the decline in print revenues through new solutions - eg workflow and performance measurement R&D growth in Asia and the US will continue to underpin the STM market

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15 The academic library market The Global Economic Situation The impact of declining endowments Exchange rate volatility Risk of large-scale cancellations Some publishers offering pragmatic solutions Will e-books be the salvation?

16 Stanford Endowment income fell 30% One library to close 58 full-time posts lost Opening hours reduced Staff travel eliminated

17 Other examples Pay cuts at Berkeley Yale collections down $900,000 Cornell down almost $1 million Harvard cut of 15 percent

18 My sense of e-book economics Print Publisher revenue E-bundle Publisher revenue New books 15 x $100 $ x $35 $3500 Second hand books Do without/ library copies 70 x $60 $0 $0 $0 15 x $0 $0 $0 $0 Total revenue $1500 $3500

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20 INFORMATION The impact of Web 2.0 in research

21 Everyone is a publisher

22 What is happening out there? Role of social networking technologies Free access to a global audience Immediate online feedback mechanisms Peer-to-peer communication making R&D happen Free tools - Delicious, Zotero etc.

23 Cultural change People increasingly expect stuff to be free... and repurposeable... and immediate The old structures are facing threat

24 The publisher response Smarter submission and workflow systems A shift from gatekeeping to provision of services Primary content no longer king? New income streams - sell peer review separately from published content? New formats

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27 What might we see from publishers? Increased experimentation with Web 2.0 technologies from publishers Continued expectation from end-users to take digital consumer lives into professional domain Shift from access-based models Growth in online advertising? Impact of India and China More partnership with niche specialists Greater interest in and awareness of academic workflow