Cash Forecasting: Challenges, Modelling, and Visualization April 8, Treasury Webinars. All Rights Reserved 1

Size: px

Start display at page:

Daniela Stokes
5 years ago
Views:

1 Cash Forecasting: Challenges, Modelling, and Visualization April 8,

2 About Treasury Webinars Treasury Webinars offers webinars designed to empower Treasury, Accounts Payable, and Accounts Receivable success at companies of all sizes, across all industries. We only do what we do best, webinars. 2

3 Learning Objectives Separate cash forecasting myths from reality and define what a successful cash forecast looks like at your company. Revise specific areas of your cash forecasting process to improve the quality of the short and long-term cash forecasts at your company. Understand how forecasting done right improves strategic planning and delivers business agility for your company. 3

4 Our Agenda Why Cash Forecasting Matters Cash Forecasting Myths Defining Your Cash Forecasting Process & Framework Leveraging the Right Technology Cash Forecasting Best Practices Final Thoughts & Resources 4

5 Why Cash Forecasting Matters Impacts borrowing and investment decisions Impacts debt covenant compliance risk Impacts working capital efficiency Increase visibility into the sources and uses of cash along with the associated costs and benefits Impacts financial agility Impacts operational agility Increased investor focus on cash balances and cash deployment efficiency 5

6 Why Cash Flow Forecasting Matters 6

7 Budget vs. Plan vs. Forecast Budget- What you would like to happen Plan- How you are going to make it happen Forecast- What you think is going to happen 7

8 A Forecast is NOT a Target 8

9 A Reliable Forecast Some would call on course to hit a rock a bad forecast. Assuming it is true, it is a good forecast, even though it contains bad news. - Bjarte Bogsnes, Implementing Beyond Budgeting 9

10 Cash Forecasting Myths The benchmark of cash forecasting success is how close you get to 100% accuracy. The more data the better in terms of cash forecasting success. The more complicated the statistical method used in cash forecasting the better the cash forecast. Technology is magic and is the key to an effective forecast. 10

11 Cash Forecasting: Setting the Stage Identify the Type of Cash Forecast Operational (1-30 Days) Short-Term (Rolling 13 week forecast) Medium Term (12 month rolling) Long Term/Strategic (1-5 Years) Define the Goals of the Forecast Manage Short Term Borrowings Tie to Balance Sheet Forecasting Managing Capital Structure Desired Level of Accuracy 11

12 Cash Forecasting: Setting the Stage Understanding Inflows and Outflows Map your Cash Flows Identify Inflow Sources Identify Outflow Sources Identify who within your company drives these cash flows Identify all systems used to move and record fund movements 12

13 Cash Forecasting Framework Source: Cash Forecasting: A Free Cash Flow Perspective, 2017 AFP Annual Conference 13

14 Cash Forecasting: Methods Indirect Model Top-down- derived from P&L and B/S forecasts, offers a macro view- look in the aggregate and then transpose down to business units, etc. More suited for a medium or long term forecast horizon Leveraged to drive strategy from a quarter to quarter time frame Direct Model Bottom-up-a micro-view- look at segments by business unit, product lines within business units, cost centers. How low do you want to go? Detailed projections of receipts and disbursements Implementation requires more time and resources (people, data, systems) Informs decisions/adjustments within a quarter (week, day) Hybrid- a combination of top- down and bottom-up methods 14

15 Cash Forecasting: Direct Model Methodology Time Horizon- generally up to 3 months by week or by day Frequency- updated bi-weekly/weekly/daily Methodology Estimate the amounts and timing of cash inflows and outflows leveraging transactional data ( outstanding accounts receivable, outstanding accounts payable, and corresponding receipt/payment types and terms) Predict cash flow drivers that can t be forecasted effectively using transactional data using statistical analysis or trend analysis Source: Cash Forecasting: A Free Cash Flow Perspective, 2017 AFP Annual Conference 15

16 Cash Forecasting: Direct Model Drivers & Process Drivers Receipts/Collections Disbursements /Spend Intercompany settlements Payroll and Benefits Payments Tax Payments/Refunds Financing/Investments/FX/Dividends Capital Expenditures Endogenous Factors (weather, FX rates) Process Receipt & Payment Forecasts Consolidation Variance Analysis Learn & Improve Source: Cash Forecasting: A Free Cash Flow Perspective, 2017 AFP Annual Conference 16

17 Cash Forecasting: Direct Model Behavior & Organization A Direct model often requires an accountability model that is based on key cash flow drivers in a decentralized cash flow forecasting environment. Cash Flow Forecasting Program Lead Customer Receipts Disbursments Treasury Payroll & Benefits Intercompany CapEx Tax Owners Director, Credit Director, AP Treasurer VP, HR Controller VP, FP&A Director, Tax Input Providers AR, Collections, Business Units AP Staff, Purchasing, Business Units Treasury Staff, AP, AR Payroll, Benefits, HR Staff Accounting, Business Units Operations, FP&A Staff, Business Units Tax, Accounting, Controller Source: Cash Forecasting: A Free Cash Flow Perspective, 2017 AFP Annual Conference 17

18 Cash Forecasting: Direct Model Data & Tools Excel is still the most widely used tool, but the use of ERP Modules, TMS, and FP&A/BI/CPM tools are gaining popularity. Transactional data such as open AR and AP items, and payments terms is often obtained from ERPs and/or data warehouses. Data relative to endogenous variables that drive cash flow forecasting is received from sources such as a TMS, FX partners, banks, FP&A/BI/CPM solution partners. Actuals are obtained from a general ledger, sub-ledger, online banking systems, a TMS, service providers and/or bank statements. Source: Cash Forecasting: A Free Cash Flow Perspective, 2017 AFP Annual Conference 18

19 Cash Forecasting: Direct Model Reporting & Metrics Reporting- Rolling monthly forecast with weekly/daily/real-time views, Current month/quarter forecasts, Variance analysis (e.g., forecast vs. actuals, forecast vs. forecast, etc.), standardized reporting packages Metrics- Accuracy (MAD, MADP, CFE, AFE), Timeliness of sub-forecast from stakeholders, KPIs related to key cash flow drivers Source: Cash Forecasting: A Free Cash Flow Perspective, 2017 AFP Annual Conference 19

20 Forecasting Accuracy Financial Forecasting is more about variance management than the accuracy percentage. How do forecasts impact the quality of decisions? If you know that every March your forecast has the possibility to produce a large variance either way due to certain seasonal events, plan for it! Never stop trying to improve your model Financial forecast improvement is about measuring both accuracy and volatility and then continuously working to improve your understanding of the key sources and causes of volatility. Take action Once you understand how and why your business forecast fluctuates, make changes based on that forecast. No decisions impacted, no value. Forecast accuracy improves business agility. Source: Calculating Financial Forecast Accuracy - Improving Your and Your Company s Forecast Performance 20

21 Forecasting Accuracy ROI Utilize elasticity formula: % change in X / % change in Y For every 1% change in forecast, what would have been the change in profitability. Make sure to measure both positive AND negative effects on an on-going basis. Source: Calculating Financial Forecast Accuracy - Improving Your and Your Company s Forecast Performance 21

22 Cash Forecasting: The Right Method & Workflow Clearly understand the current and intended purposes of your cash forecast. Understand your data, it sources, and its relative accuracy. Identify and understand the sources of variance within your current forecast and focus on the sources you can control. In selecting a forecasting method do not try and fit a method or procedure to your needs and data. Let your objectives and data drive your process NOT the technology or a statistical method of forecasting. Identify professional colleagues who face your same challenges and engage them to identify the best practices for YOUR company. 22

23 POLLING QUESTION How would you characterize the level of collaboration between FP&A, accounts receivable and Cash treasury Forecasting: at your company? A. Non-existent B. Minimal, Incorporating only as needed to resolve Visual issues Analysis C. Adequate, but we need to get better D. Good, we communicate and collaborate effectively E. I don't know or N/A 23

Forecasting vs. Actual Traditional Forecast Vs.

27 Forecast Patterns Seeing in a Calendar Forecasts shown in a visual calendar Heat map amounts (color code) to show higher vs lower amounts Easy to see the pattern 2018 Treasury Webinars. All Rights Reserved 27

Forecast patterns Visualizing Pattern Analytics Data analytics help with pattern

Forecast Benchmarking Traditional Forecast Vs.

Forecast Benchmarking Graphical View 2018

POLLING QUESTION How would you characterize the level of collaboration between FP&A, accounts receivable Cash and treasury Forecasting at your company? Drivers: A. Non-existent B.

33 POLLING QUESTION How would you characterize the level of collaboration between FP&A, accounts receivable Cash and treasury Forecasting at your company? Drivers: A. Non-existent B. Minimal, only The as New needed World to resolve of issues AP & AR C. Adequate, but we need to get better D. Good, we communicate and collaborate effectively E. I don't know or N/A 2019 FP&A Webinars. All Rights Reserved 33

34 Key Automation Jargon 34

35 Defining Artificial Intelligence Merriam-Webster defines artificial intelligence this way: A branch of computer science dealing with the simulation of intelligent behavior in computers. The capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior. Kaplan and Haenlein define AI as a system s ability to correctly interpret external data, to learn from such data, and to use those learnings to achieve specific goals and tasks through flexible adaptation. Essentially, AI is a computer that mimics human intelligence. 35

36 Artificial Intelligence (AI): Don t Be Afraid A can be traced all the way back to 1956, when it was founded as an academic discipline. Furthermore, examples of AI beings have been staples of pop culture for decades from Mary Shelley s Frankenstein (1818) to Stanley Kubrick s 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) to James Cameron s The Terminator (1984). The pursuit of AI in modern culture always seems to end very badly for humans. In the business world, it is seen as destroying jobs and entire industries. 36

37 How AI Works 37

38 How AI Works 38

39 How AI Works 39

40 Artificial Intelligence: In Our Daily Lives Social Networking (Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram) Ride Sharing Apps (Uber, Lyft) Virtual Assistants (Siri, Alexa) Navigation Apps (Goggle Maps, Waze), Streaming Media Services (Netflix, Spotify, Pandora). 40

41 AI s Role in P2P Supplier Information Management Contract Management Procurement AP Automation Expense Management Payment & Supply Chain Financing 41

42 AI s Role in O2C Customer Relationship Management Cash Application Credit Management Collections Management Dispute Management 42

43 AI in Cash Application 43

44 AI Enables Remittance Data Capture 44

45 AI Enables Remittance Data Capture 45

46 AI Enables Remittance Data Capture 46

47 Cash Forecasting Best Practices Clear Communication Success depends on business partnering Monitor and share metrics Ongoing dialogue to create a culture of continuous improvement Focus Collect and analyze data that matters Dates and periods of time that matter most Efficiency & Automation Identify what can and can t be automated Automate what you can, but don t do it all at once Source: Cash Forecasting: Member Perspectives & Best Practices, 2017 AFP Annual Conference 47

48 Cash Forecasting: Closing Thoughts Clearly define the goals of your forecast. Understand your data. Work closely with AP & AR to capitalize on understanding and in taking more control of cash movements. Identify and engage professional colleagues who face similar cash forecasting challenges. Build the business case for forecasting accuracy and sell it. Invest in the right technology and the right solution partner. 48

49 Q&A 49

Ernie Humphrey, CTP Ernie@treasurywebinars.com https://www.

50 Ernie Humphrey, CTP