Pricing Developments, challenges and outlook for London, March James Brown

Transcription

1 Pricing 2017 Developments, challenges and outlook for 2017 London, March 2017 James Brown London office 1 Plough Place London EC4A 1DE, UK james.brown@simon-kucher.com

2 Today s session Pricing in 2016 context & experience Outlook for 2017 focus areas Exceedra Conference

3 To start with some questions 1. How many of you had clear plans in place for Brexit? 2. How many experienced cost increases as a result of Brexit? 3. Have you tried to increase prices post Brexit? Source: Simon-Kucher Exceedra Conference

4 Context: Looking back at 2016 and outlook for a year of two halves Retailer price war as a response to discounters growth, leading to low/negative inflation environment Simplification of trade terms demanded by the Big 4, demands for trade investment into price Simplification of shelf pricing and retailer departure from hi-low towards mid-low and EDLP, triggering changes in price-pack architecture and promo guidelines Pre-Brexit uncertainty and wait and see approach from most suppliers Dramatic shift in outlook following Brexit decision almost entirely exchange rate driven Post-Brexit fall in GBP building-up cost pressures First signs of price increases announced, but most did not hit the market in dominated by a return to inflation No further room for absorbing cost increases, remaining hedging runs out Further blunt price moves pushed through based on balance of power and tactical advantages Return of inflation for consumer goods Continuing price war between retailers Blurring of channel lines and impact of megadeals such as Tesco-Booker becoming clear The big unknowns how will retailers adapt their price and promo positions? Will relative prices remain unchanged despite absolute price increases? When real term incomes are squeezed, how will shoppers react? Exceedra Conference

5 2016 was all about retailers price war PRICE WAR! Exceedra Conference

6 Many categories saw negative value sales trends, largely due to retailer price wars 800m estimated value loss from supermarket price war* 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% YoY Category value 2016 vs Sample of categories with negative value trends in the past year *The Grocer: Category analysis using Nielsen data, December 2016 Exceedra Conference

7 Competitive pressures forced main retailers to simplify pricing in 2016 Main grocers forced to simplify their pricing as they were being beaten by the Discounters, champions of price simplicity Even though a large proportion of volume was sold on deep promos, the difference in shelf price was just too large Hence, pricing models have changed from high-low to mid-low or towards EDLP (or EDLP+)......and multibuys are being replaced by simpler promotions, such as price cuts At the same time, retailers increased demands for supplier to roll all trade investment into price, to simplify buying terms and reduce conditionality Exceedra Conference

8 Brexit uncertainty led to supplier inaction for most of 2016 BEFORE B AFTER Let s wait and see What s the plan if it happens?... Relax it s not going to happen R E It happened! What should we do? Let s wait and see X I T Exceedra Conference

9 Drop in GBP was felt with a few months delay, as hedging contracts started to expire GBP just lost 11%, so our costs have gone up by 12.5%...! But it s going to bounce back, surely No need for panic, we are hedged for another few weeks Our costs have gone up by 25% vs and our hedging contracts are expiring! We really need to do something... Source: Bloomberg currency charts Exceedra Conference

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11 Marmitegate: Unilever s bold move provided cover for others and exposed the fact that prices need to go up Current pressures are different to the usual trading dynamics and manufacturers feel that now they have a strong and unambiguous case on why the prices really need to go up this time There are not many alternatives in the short run given the abruptness of the exchange rate changes - pack changes take time and promos de-escalatation has already started Hence, manufacturers are pushed against the wall and there s only one way to go it s either a price increase or a profit warning! Exceedra Conference

12 Others weren t too far behind Exceedra Conference

13 But retailers are not sitting still and accepting it For the costs increases to go through: Suppliers need to do the math, to prove that the cost increases are justified and propose brand/pack specific impacts, rather then a blanket price increase rate They have resisted putting prices down when the market was going the other way, they can t have it both ways Exceedra Conference

14 Price increases of electronics products announced shortly after GBP drop Apps +25%: From 79p to 99p From 1.49 to % to their channel partners International consumer pricing very transparent USD driven costs & company reporting Particularly prone to international price arbitrage iphone 7 32GB + 60 iphone 7 Plus 256GB ipad Pro 32GB + 50 Microsoft Surface Book % to 25% price increases Exceedra Conference

15 With other key benchmark products continuing through into 2017 From 399 to 419! Exceedra Conference

16 Where will it stop? Exceedra Conference

17 GRAPHICS equivalent slide for Inflation (like previous INFLATION slide on price war) ivan is providing some snapshots Exceedra Conference

18 What s in store for the remainder of 2017? Inflation: cost pressures aren t going to go away as the pound sits in its new low Suppliers will try to offset costs by price increases, shrinking packs and deescalating promotional activity Retailers will be ready to push back, and we may see some high profile fallouts but price increases will be passed through Shoppers will experience a rapid return of inflation to the market. We expect food to remain within single digit inflation, whilst durables and electronics to largely mirror exchange rate effect Competitive environment: The supermarket price war will not disappear any time soon and will mitigate some of the inflationary impact Discounters will be looking to capitalise on the price rises and grab even more share whilst the Big 4 will continue to battle hard to keep what they have Demands for simplification and folding of trade terms will continue Channel lines blurring and new mergers will see terms and customer prices under increasing scrutiny Exceedra Conference

19 Return of inflation as suppliers and retailers pass on cost increases Grocery inflation at 1.4%, near three-year high* *Kantar, 12 weeks to Feb 26 th Butter prices rose 15.8%, fish prices rose 8.8%, and tea prices were up 6% Exceedra Conference

20 Promo de-escalation to continue as pricing becomes simpler Why did we not see promo de-escalation until now? Difficult to de-escalate promos for individual suppliers, as this may go against a category / competitor trend and may therefore result in (at least) temporary pain To de-escalate, the whole market needs to move in the same direction, which typically happens because of external pressures So what s different this time? Regulatory pressures and enquiries into the shape of promo activities in UK grocery retail Significant pressure from Discounters towards simpler pricing Significant cost pressures real chance to de-escalate and cut non-performing promos! Exceedra Conference

21 There are views that price war is easing off, but have the fundamentals of price war friendly environment really changed? Excess capacities New entrants Unexpected cost reduction Disruptive technology Commoditisation of product Irrational behaviour Low market growth. Industry structure Exceedra Conference

22 01/04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/ /10/ /04/2020 (%) Discounter growth was a big fuel for the price war How long before a Lidl or Aldi becomes one of the Big 4? Great Britain grocery share data Aldi and Lidl s combined share of UK grocery market % Aldi overtook Waitrose in 2016, Morrison's in its sights? 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% % 6% ~11% at present % 2% ~4% in % weeks to 28 February weeks to 26 February Exceedra Conference

23 They try and fight us on price but they won t win, because they define our margin. And we will be 15% cheaper Matthew Barnes CEO Aldi UK & Ireland Exceedra Conference

24 The main retailers are looking outside their traditional core market, to offset share and profit loses Exceedra Conference 2017 With around 100m expected in cost savings someone is going to have to drop their prices 24

25 As channel distinctions become blurred, suppliers might be in the firing lines All part of or supplied by same ( 60bn) company demanding the same supplier terms? Suppliers nightmare? The cost of a fallout with your biggest customer has just become bigger! Transparency and benchmarking of existing terms is likely to reveal some skeletons in the closet! How do you fight back the pick-and choose of the best deals? 7,000+ convenience stores alone or an opportunity? Greater reach and simplified logistics? Aligned and improved execution across more stores (one agreement covers more)? Better data (finally EPOS from convenience)? Exceedra Conference

26 Pressure on suppliers remains high: Shoppers, retailers and suppliers will share the pain Consumer Goods suppliers will still be stuck in a retailer-lead price war Brexit uncertainty and unfavourable forex will continue to put pressures on imports, commodity prices & other costs Significant increase in inflation is likely to impact shoppers real incomes, as wages unlikely to keep-up The threat of de-lists will be used to push requirements for simplified pricing structures Detailed understanding of balance of power, consumer and shopper needs and strong revenue management capabilities will be needed Exceedra Conference

27 Our advice to consumer goods suppliers: 4 focus areas for Ensure cost recovery through price increase: In the short term, blunt increases better than inaction. Limited number of suppliers expected to grab volume share given the scale of cost impact 2 Develop strategy for ongoing price management in the new environment: Revisit price, pack and promo architecture across your portfolio to ensure it s fit for purpose following the changes 3 Risk assess and revisit trade term structures: Prepare for further demands as the sector gets even more consolidated; ensure TTs are justifiable and defendable 4 Bolster revenue management capabilities: Enhance your RM teams to ensure that the changes can be properly designed, implemented and tracked Exceedra Conference

28 About Simon-Kucher

29 Simon-Kucher & Partners at a glance Best consultancy in marketing and sales World leader in pricing ma ager magazi Marketing and sales 1 Simon-Kucher & Partners bra d ei s Thema Marketing and pricing Simon-Kucher & Partners Sales and CRM Simon-Kucher & Partners World leader in giving advice to companies on how to price their products Busi essweek The world s leading pricing consultancy The Eco omist 2 Boston Consulting Group 3 McKinsey & Company Boston Consulting Group. McKinsey & Company Boston Consulting Group. McKinsey & Company Pricing strategy specialists The Wa Street Jour a In pricing you offer something nobody else does Professor Peter Drucker Source: ma ager magazi survey of top managers in Germany, August 2007 and 2011/IMB Source: bra d ei s Thema/Statista survey of 1,426 partners and project leaders from consulting firms and 1,300 C-level managers from German companies, May 2014 Global presence >3,200 projects in the last 3 years San Francisco Toronto Boston New York Amsterdam Madrid Atlanta Barcelona Milan Bonn Munich Brussels Paris Cologne Warsaw Copenhagen Vienna São Paulo Frankfurt Zurich Santiago Istanbul London Luxembourg 33 offices worldwide, 980 employees 241m revenue in 2016 Dubai Beijing Singapore Tokyo Sydney Strategy > 500 Sales > 700 Marketing > 700 Pricing > 1,400 Growth and competitive strategies Product portfolio (re-)design Pricing excellence Customer relationship and customer value management Sales strategies and sales channel optimization Source: Simon-Kucher Exceedra Conference

30 Advising industry leaders from all sectors Pharmaceuticals Travel & Hospitality 24 of the top 25 pharma companies 3 of the 4 largest vaccine manufacturers All 5 of the largest biotech manufacturers Accor British Airways Center Parcs Europcar Hilton Lufthansa Navigon Thalys Thomas Cook Travelport TUI Energy & Utilities Telecom & Media BP/Aral Castrol E.ON EnBW EVN Liquigas Mainova natgas Nordex Orlen RheinEnergie RWE Shell Tank & Rast Yello 1&1 Axiata Betfair LinkedIn PayPal Deutsche Telekom Skype T-Mobile Vodafone The Economist Group Which? Xbox Live The influence of Simon-Kucher on the prices we pay for just about everything is as little recognised as it is staggering." Tech & Software Citrix Fujitsu Intel Intuit Kronos Automotive Alfa Romeo Audi BMW Daimler Fiat Microsoft Novell Panasonic Philips RSA Kia Maserati Michelin Mercedes- Benz Security SAP Sony Ericsson SunGard Porsche Renault Toyota Volvo VW Source: William Poundstone 2010; Selected references from Simon-Kucher project experience; confidentiality agreements prevent us from naming many other major partners Manufacturing & Logistics Bosch Caterpillar De Post DHL Express Financial Services American Express Barclays BNP Paribas Honeywell La Poste Osram Parcelforce Citi Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Siemens Swiss Post Tetra Pak TNT GE Capital HSBC RBS Virgin Money Exceedra Conference

31 Our Global Consumer & Retail Practice has extensive experience across all sub-sectors Selection* Food & Beverage FMCG Non-Food FMCG Fashion, Apparel & Luxury Consumer Durables Retailers Apetito Avon Adidas Michelin Barnes & Noble Associated British Foods Bofrost Coca Cola Danone Dr. Oetker Ferrero Haribo Molson Coors PepsiCo Pernod Ricard Unilever Weetabix Coty Dr. Scheller Cosmetics Johnson & Johnson Kimberly Clark NeoStrata Nivea Procter & Gamble Reckitt Benckiser Schwarzkopf & Henkel Shiseido Weleda Brooks Brothers Coach Clarks Nike Swarovski Steinway & Sons T M Lewin Nikon Nokia Olympus Tesa Texas Instruments Warner Music Group Xbox Live Delhaize Deli XL Douglas Metro Migros Office Depot Otto The Container Store Source: Simon-Kucher; * Selection due to client confidentiality Exceedra Conference

32 Where we support our Consumer Goods clients in Revenue Management Pricing strategy Consumer pricing* Market research and analytics Brand / pack level commercial goals Price-pack architecture Trade-promo effectiveness Retailer specific RSPs and Promo calendars Design and management of primary price research Portfolio pricing strategy E suri g prici g strategies a ig ith overa corporate goa s at a eve s Deve opme t of price a d promo guide i es comprehe sive revie or tack i g specific cha e ges Customer pricing Transparency of achieved price Trade terms assessment and benchmarking Cross-channel price management Desig a d imp eme tatio of comp ete customer prici g a d trade terms frame orks Data and reporting Development of performance tracking, data capture and gaps RM Org and Process Design of RM organisation setup, governance and processes * Retail price setting is at the sole discretion of the retailer Exceedra Conference

33 Your UK contacts at Simon-Kucher James Brown Partner, London 1 Plough Place, London EC4A 1DE phone: +44 (0) james.brown@simon-kucher.com James Brown is a Partner with Simon-Kucher & Partners in London and had 11 years experience in industry roles prior to joining Simon- Kucher. He has been with the firm since 2009, and now leads the Consumer Goods practice in the UK. Although covering all Consumer Goods categories he has a particular focus on food and grocery, advising both UK based clients and acting as UK market expert on global engagements. He specializes in commercial strategy with a particular focus on pricing.. He covers both UK and International clients including several leading FMCG businesses and a number of Private Equity firms where he works across their portfolios. James is a regular media commentator on pricing topics (Sky News, BBC, ITN, Guardian, FT, plus others. In addition he is a frequent speaker at conferences and events (including Professional Pricing Society, Revenue Management & Pricing International and several in house events for global Food & Beverage companies). Prior to joining Simon-Kucher, James was Head of International Pricing at Hertz Europe. Before this he held the role of Senior Pricing Manager at Ricoh. James studied Politics with Economics at Goldsmiths College and completed a Masters in Politics & Government at Birkbeck College Ivan Šegrt Director, London 1 Plough Place, London EC4A 1DE phone: +44 (0) ivan.segrt@simon-kucher.com Ivan is a Director in the London office of Simon-Kucher & Partners. His areas of specialisation are promotional effectiveness, price modelling and structured pricing projects in Consumer Goods and in particular. Ivan has lead projects in multiple consumer goods sectors ranging from luxury wines & spirits, general grocery, consumer electronics, specialist DIY products. Ivan joined Simon-Kucher with seven years of industry experience. He worked for Anheuser Busch - InBev, leading projects and managing teams in Sales, Pricing and Category Management. He subsequently joined Dunnhumby (subsidiary of Tesco), where he used shopper data to assess effectiveness of promotions, working on projects with leading FMCG companies. Originally from Montenegro he holds an MSc in European Political Economy from the London School of Economics and Political Science and a BSc in Economics and Politics from the University of Bristol. Exceedra Conference

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