5G FIXED WIRELESS: THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR OPERATORS

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1 analysysmason.com RESEARCH STRATEGY REPORT 5G FIXED WIRELESS: THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR OPERATORS RUPERT WOOD Analysys Mason Limited 2017

2 About this report This report analyses operator investment cases for 5G (or rather pre-standardised 5G) fixed wireless network roll-out. It describes the early work being carried out by vendors and operators on mmwave 5G fixed wireless and highlights the drivers and inhibitors of the technology. It offers investment models for two types of operators: a fixed incumbent without last-furlong fibre access, and a mobile operator with limited fixed network infrastructure. The report provides recommendations for operators considering pursuing this approach. It is based on two sources: Analysys Mason s internal research interviews with industry stakeholders. GEOGR APHICAL COV ER AGE Global, but with an emphasis on economically-developed markets, particularly those with high infrastructure barriers. CASE STUDIES AT&T Google Fiber Verizon KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN THIS REPORT How does 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) work, and what will be required to make it work as a substitute for next-generation wired broadband? What type of operators stand to benefit from 5G FWA and to what sort of geographical and economic environments is it most suited? How dependent is 5G FWA on future mobile services to achieve ROI? What is the incremental cost for different types of operator? How does 5G FWA compare to GPON and G.fast? What are the critical factors determining whether operators will invest in the technology? WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT Executives in operators strategy offices who are responsible for network strategy, as this report provides a view of the commercial shortfalls and benefits of 5G FWA. Executives in vendor product strategy departments, as the report highlights where the best opportunities for this sort of approach lie. Regulators that want to see what a 5G fixed mobile convergence landscape might look like and the attendant market concentration risks. Analysys Mason Limited

3 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NETWORK PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS APPENDIX ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON Analysys Mason Limited

4 Executive summary 5G FWA could speed up some ultrafast broadband roll-outs by fixed operators, and it represents an opportunity (albeit an expensive one) for mobile operators to tap into the multi-play sector, especially where there is no effective wholesale layer. Figure 1: Total cost of ownership of an mmwave small cell supplying FWA for an operator pursuing self-build and for an operator using a third-party provider Pre-standards 5G FWA potentially addresses two problems. Firstly, individual customer FTTP connections in developed economies are both costly and time-consuming. Secondly, mobile network operators (MNOs) need better ways to enter the multi-play market. Early 5G will use a mix of spectrum. 3.5GHz will be used by many operators, but there are a few obvious additional benefits of 5Gflavoured 3.5GHz over 4G for FWA. mmwave 5G FWA is being trialled by a number of operators (mainly in the USA) and this option looks more promising, as it matches the performance of fibre and cable in some ways. mmwave spectrum facilitates massive MIMO and beamforming. This means that 5G FWA using mmwave should be able to provide equivalent capacity to the best-in-class fixed access, unlike 4G FWA. However, there are question marks over its actual range in a built-up environment and building penetration loss (BPL), both of which adversely affect costs. The cost benefits of FWA will be small if the technology is too dependent on external antennas (which require an engineer visit), or on more or taller towers than are available. mmwave FWA has the potential to allow MNOs to compete effectively against fixed next-generation access (NGA) in some types of location and in some competitive environments. However, the gains are marginal, not radical: cost and cost structure is comparable to fixed NGA and is emphatically dissimilar to mobile. Most of the cost is in backhaul and site access. A further use case will be urban point-to-point connections between multi-dwelling units (MDUs), but not inside MDUs. This could incur a lower cost than horizontal dig or duct access for fibre. MNOs may justify the investment as a way to kick-start mobile 5G, but it is not at all obvious that the optimal locations for FWA will be the same as those for 5G mobile. Analysys Mason Limited

5 MNOs look to 5G as a way to enter the home and business broadband market and compete profitably against wired incumbents Many MNOs see home and business broadband as an attractive new market and hope that mmwave will help them win market share at a low cost. Figure 2: Three key hoped-for benefits of mmwave FWA Mobile service revenue has peaked and retail fixed mobile convergence is gaining ground. Most operators will need to be able to offer their customers services for the home, as well as for mobile. However, many MNOs are unable to enter the home broadband market, because FTTP is too expensive, or regulated wholesale is too undifferentiated, or the opportunities for fixed mobile TV M&A have decreased. Historically, MNOs have sometimes attempted to use fixed mobile substitution to address this market, but with no great success. Simply put, 4G LTE has never been able to challenge cable or telco for the home broadband market: achievable speeds on wireless networks are too variable and average fixed data usage continues to grow faster than FWA can adapt to meet it. Pre-standards 5G services (particularly those using mmwave spectrum) appear to offer MNOs a new route into the home broadband/video market, which they have previously struggled to address. However, significant questions remain over the likely performance of these emergent technologies, which will spill over into additional costs. Moreover, the scale of overall cost is not well understood, especially the dependence on and cost of fibre backhaul. Analysys Mason Limited

6 5G FWA could compete effectively with wired technologies, but only if it can enable outdoor-to-indoor coverage The usefulness of mmwave FWA will be restricted to certain types of premises and certain market conditions if it cannot deliver outdoor-to-indoor coverage. Figure 3: Indicative CPPC for FTTP and nearest equivalents for G.fast and mmwave FWA The first part of this report focuses on why mobile operators are re-examining FWA. This section begins with a brief discussion of using the 3.5GHz band for FWA (which we believe still has significant constraints), then goes on to discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks of mmwave. The key benefit is spectral utilisation, which should make gigabit service per user, rather than per sector, possible. The key drawbacks all derive from the poor propagation and range of mmwave. The second part of this report focuses on financials. CPPP for 5G mmwave FWA is not lower than for other gigabit network deployments. 5G mmwave fixed wireless networks will be more dependent on line of sight (LoS) than those at lower frequencies (despite the very wide bands available) and will suffer from very high BPL. Operators will therefore need to spend on truck roll to install external antennas at a proportion of properties. However, CPPC can be lower for some types of premises and would be significantly lower than most FTTP (and even lower than some G.fast) if reliable-enough outdoor-to-indoor transmission could be achieved. Whether this reduction in cost can be achieved for sufficient premises to offset the cost of the cell is a critical uncertainty. FWA infrastructure can, of course, be used for 4G mobile cell densification and for future mobile version of 5G, even if the technology turns out to be only equivalent in cost to fixed solutions, or even marginally more expensive. However, operators need to be cautious in expecting much overlap between optimal siting of FWA cells and mobile small cells. The optimal use case for 5G FWA is likely to be suburban, whereas the optimal use case for 4.5G/5G mobile small cells will be dense urban. Analysys Mason Limited

7 Recommendations 1 Operators should view 5G FWA as an access solution for specific locations or competitive environments. 5G will not replace existing fixed NGA. The commercial case for competitive 5G FWA will work best where the costs of customer connections or first-hop aggregation for fibre are too high, where access to wholesale NGA services is restricted, or where home broadband ARPU is high. There could also be a good commercial case for 5G FWA where there is demand for mobile cell densification. However, FWA will be a capex drain unless there are good cases for both technologies at the small cell locations. 2 FWA must supply effective outdoor-to-indoor coverage if MNOs are to use it to compete against fixed incumbents. Operators need to avoid installing external equipment at customer premises for FWA the cost and inconvenience of engineer visits and installation are the main reasons for not selecting FTTP for home broadband. There are several unknown aspects to the real-life performance of mmwave FWA, but operators should not embark on major roll-outs if the state of radio technology means that the majority of customers cannot self-install. 3 Operators need to explore ways to exploit customers premises for transmission. The full value of using a customer s rooftop for transmission has not yet been fully explored. Some operators are exploring the possibility of using mmwave for point-to-point links between large MDUs. Operators should explore technical and commercial ways to implement this for smaller buildings, but in larger volumes. Analysys Mason Limited

8 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NETWORK PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS APPENDIX ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON Analysys Mason Limited

9 About the author Rupert Wood (Research Director) is the lead analyst for our Fixed Networks and Wireless Networks research programmes, and his research focuses on next-generation networks and convergence. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and Kommersant. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason. Analysys Mason Limited

10 Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned Analysys Mason s consulting services and research portfolio CONSULTING We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms industry: communications and digital service providers, vendors, financial and strategic investors, private equity and infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters, and service and content providers. Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces. We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges and opportunities that new technology brings. RESEARCH Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises. We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct access to analysts. Analysys Mason Limited

11 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. PROGRAMMES Research portfolio PROGRAMMES Network Investment Strategies Network Traffic Spectrum Mobile Services Mobile Devices Fixed Broadband Services Convergence Strategies Video Strategies Enterprise and IoT PROGRAMMES Large Enterprise Voice and Data Connectivity Large Enterprise Emerging Service Opportunities Small and Medium Enterprise Strategies IoT and M2M Solutions IoT Platforms and Technology PROGRAMMES Service Assurance Service Delivery Platforms Next-Generation Wireless Networks Network Orchestration Software-Controlled Networking Digital Experience Customer Care Revenue Management Analytics Service Fulfilment Telecoms Software Market Shares Software Forecast and Strategy Network investment strategies Telecoms software and networks Consumer services Regional markets Digital economy PROGRAMMES PROGRAMMES Global Telecoms Forecasts Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa European Country Reports European Core Forecasts European Telecoms Market Matrix Digital Economy Strategies Future Comms Analysys Mason Limited

12 Consulting from Analysys Mason For 30 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. EXPERTISE Performance analysis Technology optimisation EXPERTISE Radio spectrum auction support Consulting portfolio Commercial excellence Transformation services Performance improvement Radio spectrum management EXPERTISE Policy development and response Margin squeeze tests Analysing regulatory accounts Expert legal support Media regulation Postal sector costing, pricing and regulation Regulatory economic costing Net cost of universal service Regulation EXPERTISE Transaction support Commercial due diligence Regulatory due diligence Technical due diligence Spectrum policy and auction support Strategy and planning EXPERTISE Market research Market analysis Business strategy and planning Market sizing and forecasting Benchmarking and best practice National and regional broadband strategy and implementation To find out more, please visit Analysys Mason Limited

13 PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN JANUARY 2017 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Registered in England No Analysys Mason Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party. Analysys Mason Limited 2017

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