Shop around for retail opportunities
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1 Retail opportunities Conversation guide Nationwide Market Insights SM Shop around for retail opportunities The retail sector is experiencing tremendous transformation in the current business cycle. The rise of online shopping, led by Amazon, has contributed to the demise of many recognizable retail names and the shuttering of thousands of brick-and-mortar stores. Technology is a primary driver of these changes, but evolving consumer preferences and other factors are at work, too. Informed investors can position themselves appropriately for the potential risks as well as the opportunities. The retail sector has long been a prime candidate for disruption. Online shopping has fostered a sea change for the retail landscape. The effects of this transformation are starting to ripple through the broader economy.
2 The retail sector has long been a prime candidate for disruption. The composition of the retail industry has shifted dramatically from 1997 to 2017, with the multi-line and department store model fading and e-commerce rising to dominance (see chart below). Many factors have contributed to the vulnerability of traditional brick-and-mortar retailers, including heavy reliance on sales promotions, oversimplification of product lines and too many stores. The U.S. has one-third more retail space per capita than Canada and five to six times more retail space than the U.K. or France. (Source: Cohen & Steers, as of March 31, 2017) The consequences of retail disruption are starting to cascade in So far in 2017, around 3,000 brick-and-mortar store closings have been announced, including many established and recognizable retail brands such as Sears, Macy s, Radio Shack and The Limited. Through the first four months of the year, 10 U.S. retailers have sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection more than all of 2016, according to AlixPartners. Chart 1: Largest U.S. retailers by market capitalization, then and now Company S&P 500 sector Market Cap ($ billions) Company S&P 500 sector Market Cap ($ billions) Wal-Mart Staples $117.8 Amazon.com, Inc. Internet Retail $442.1 Home Depot, Inc. Discretionary $77.3 Wal-Mart Food & Staples $227.9 CVS Health Corp. Staples $55.8 Home Depot, Inc. Specialty Retail $187.5 Target Corporation Discretionary $51.0 Walgreens Boots Food & Staples $93.5 Lowe s Cos., Inc. Discretionary $46.5 Priceline Group Internet Retail $90.8 Walgreen Co. Staples $43.9 CVS Health Corp. Food & Staples $85.4 Costco Wholesale Staples $24.2 Costco Wholesale Food & Staples $77.9 Kohl s Corporation Discretionary $24.2 Lowe's Cos., Inc. Specialty Retail $72.8 Kroger Co. Staples $20.9 Netflix, Inc. Internet Retail $65.6 Sysco Corporation Staples $20.2 TJX Companies Specialty Retail $50.8 Source: FactSet Research Systems Capital market insights 2
3 Online shopping has fostered a sea change for the retail landscape. Amazon is the dominant force in online retailing and the primary force behind the retail industry disruption. The company emerged as a category killer for books, media and electronics, and is now rising to challenge general merchandisers (e.g., Wal-Mart, Target) and grocery stores (e.g., Kroger). According to estimates from research firm Internet Retailer and ChannelAdvisor Corp., Amazon by itself was responsible for over 27% of the growth in overall retail sales in Apparel presents a good example of how online retailers have risen to importance: In 2015, for the first time, online retailers accounted for more than half of clothing sales in the U.S., even as the overall market for apparel has, in general, trended sideways (see chart below). Price sensitivity is a leading consideration for shoppers as they choose online retailers over brick-and-mortar stores, although shifting consumer preferences for convenience and a wider range of choices are also important factors. Chart 2: U.S. apparel sales: Dept. stores + entirely e-commerce outlets $80B Internet retailing Department stores $70B $60B $50B $40B $30B $20B $10B Source: Morgan Stanley Research Capital market insights 3
4 The effects of this transformation are starting to ripple through the broader economy. Retail employment is falling as stores close and major retailers go out of business (see chart below). The current low rate of unemployment in the broad U.S. economy indicates that other sectors and industries are likely absorbing the retail job losses, although this trend bears watching as more retailers close up shop. Peripheral investment opportunities in technology and transportation/logistics may appear as online retailing s dominance grows. Diversification will be key in the real estate sector; although retail real estate investment trusts (REITs) have declined in value and may be expected to continue to do so keep doing so if brick-and-mortar stores continue to close residential and office REITs are performing well. Chart 3: Share of U.S. retail employment as a share of total non-farm payrolls March March % Peak Aug. 1989: 12.2% 12.0% 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% March 2017: 10.9% Mar-87 Mar-92 Mar-97 Mar-02 Mar-07 Mar-12 Mar-17 Sources: FactSet Research Systems; Bureau of Labor Statistics Capital market insights 4
5 Key takeaways Consumer spending represents around 70% of U.S. gross domestic product, so what happens in America s retail stores and shopping malls matters to the economy and the financial markets. Lately, the retail sector appears to be in the midst of significant change, with bankruptcies, store closures and shifts in consumer preferences, driven by the growing dominance of online retailing. Change means risk and opportunities for investors; informed investors should position themselves appropriately for both. Review opportunities to invest broadly in retail to help position portfolios for growth during the ongoing transition across the sector. Peripheral sectors related to the changing retail landscape including technology, transportation and diversified real estate may offer opportunities for investment growth as the industry evolves. For more help or information, contact your financial advisor. This material is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or roll over any asset, adopt an investment strategy, retain a specific investment manager or use a particular account type. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, tax and financial condition or particular needs of any specific person. Investors should work with their financial professional to discuss their specific situation. Except where otherwise indicated, the views and opinions expressed are those of Nationwide as of the date noted, are subject to change at any time, and may not come to pass. Nationwide Funds are distributed by Nationwide Fund Distributors LLC (NFD), member FINRA, Columbus, Ohio. Nationwide Investment Services Corporation, member FINRA. Nationwide, the Nationwide N and Eagle and Nationwide is on your side are service marks of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company Nationwide NFM-16486AO (05/17)
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