Lehman Brothers T Conference San Francisco. Craig DeYoung, Vice President Investor Relations December 9, 2004

Transcription

1 Lehman Brothers T Conference San Francisco Craig DeYoung, Vice President Investor Relations December 9, 2004

2 Safe Harbor Safe Harbor Statement under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: the matters discussed during this presentation include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, economic conditions, product and pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, new products development, ability to enforce patents, availability of raw materials and critical manufacturing equipment, trade environment, and other risks indicated in filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. / Slide 2

3 Agenda Market overview Achieving a strong financial base Performance improvements in 2004 Working from a strong financial base in 2005 Market share focus Delivering on commitment Summary / Slide 3

4 Agenda Market overview Achieving a strong financial base Performance improvements in 2004 Working from a strong financial base in 2005 Market share focus Delivering on commitment Summary / Slide 4

5 Semiconductor sales declining Semiconductor Sales Jan-97 May-97 Sep-97 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 / Slide Semiconductor Sales [B USD] Semiconductor Sales [B Units] Semiconductors WW Dollars Seasonal Adjusted Semiconductors WW Dollars 3MMA Semiconductors WW Units Seasonal Adjusted Semiconductors WW Units 3MMA Source: WSTS, ASML. Last Updated: Nov 2004

6 Increase in logic ASP leads to increase in IC ASP 8 ASP 3MMA 2.0 ASP 3MMA Memory WW MOS Micro Semiconductors WW WW IC MOS Logic Analog Digital Bi-Polar Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Source: WSTS, ASML. Last updated: Nov 2004 / Slide 6 ASP (USD) Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 ASP (USD)

7 IC unit sales and inventory IC unit sales and inventory Trend Line 10 9 IC Inventory (VLSI Research, #) 3MMA WW IC Sales (#) Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Monthly IC units Sales (B#) 3MMA IC Sales corrected for inventory (#) IC end user consumption - (est.) Total IC inventory (B#) Source: WSTS, VLSI Research, ASML MCC / Slide 7

8 Utilization stays at a high level 100% Ratio of silicon consumed to fab capacity Leading Edge 90% 80% 70% Overall 60% 50% 40% 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 Today Source: Gartner Dataquest Estimates, November 2004 / Slide 8

9 Agenda Market overview Achieving a strong financial base Performance improvements in 2004 Working from a strong financial base in 2005 Market share focus Delivering on commitment Summary / Slide 9

10 Performance improvements in 2004 Profitability Gross margin Net profit (excluding cross license)* in Liquidity Cash generated* in Cash position* in Growth Sales* in Backlog (number of systems) Backlog (value)* in Average Selling Price (shipped)* in ASP (backlog)* in Q1 04 Q2 04 Q % 35.6% 38.1% 21 M 65 M 74 M 124 M 84 M 80 M B B B 453 M 616 M 610 M B 1.8 B 2.1 B 6.7 M 7.6 M 7.5 M 8.3 M 10.3 M 11.2 M / Slide 10

11 Opex and gross margin - well managed Opex (M ) Q102 Q202 Q302 Q402 Q103 Q203 Q303 Q403 Q104 Q204 Q Gross margin (%) / Slide 11

12 Cost of Goods reduction program TWINSCAN 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% SCP02 Mar03 Jun03 Sep03 Oct 03 Dec03 Mar04 Jun04 Aug04 Dec04 Jun05 Dec05 Outlook 2003 Outlook 2004 Actual / Slide 12

13 Relative supplier lead-time improvement Current 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 26% 28% 27% 18% Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 13% 22% 33% 32% Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 9% 17% 32% 42% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Aug-04 0% 0-4 weeks 5-8 weeks 9-12 weeks More than 13 weeks 74% of ordered parts have an order lead-time less than 8 weeks Note: based on TWINSCAN AT:850D / Slide 13

14 Manpower flexibility Historic model Current model Engineering & Support Engineering & Support Manufacturing Manufacturing Flex Hire (20% currently) Flexibility through over-capacity Business model adapted / Slide 14

15 Integral cycle time: TWINSCAN AT:850 from ordering bulk optics to customer production (Weeks) Current Optic material & mfg. ASML Assembly & Test Install Q Actual Q Actual Q Actual Q Actual Q Plan 2005 Plan / Slide 15

16 TWINSCAN Installation Cycle Time (ICT) from delivery to Site Acceptance Test (SAT) 70 Cycle time (calendar days) ASML average ASML fast Competition estimate ASML average installation 300 mm ASML fast installation 300 mm Competition 300 mm 0 / Slide 16

17 Business flexibility in place to support changing market conditions Reduced manufacturing cycle time Increased flexibility in the supply chain to follow up or down Reduced fixed cost More outsourcing Focus on variable cost Flex personnel Managed opex within target limits Executed Cost of Goods reduction program Break-even level reduction on target / Slide 17

18 Agenda Market overview Achieving a strong financial base Performance improvements in 2004 Working from a strong financial base in 2005 Market share focus Delivering on commitment Summary / Slide 18

19 ASML Revenue market share ASML market share trend by revenue 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 6 & early i-line 8 & i-line KrF & Step & Scan 12 & ArF Immersion 10% 0% Source: ASML / Slide 19

20 Importance of targeted markets Litho unit share (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Non ASML U.S. Non ASML Japan Non ASML ROW ASML 0% Source: Gartner Dataquest/ASML / Slide 20

21 ASML positioned for growth especially in Asia Over the last 15 years ASML has grown in market share and regional capabilities to become the leading litho supplier in Asia Each region has room for continued market growth Sustaining market share in Korea Winning new customers in Taiwan and SE Asia and Japan Expanding market share at existing customers ASML will continue to add necessary management and infrastructure in Asia to support the continued growth of the semiconductor industry ASML is willing to make the right major investments to support the growth of this business / Slide 21

22 Japan office locations = Office now (6) = Office committed (3) / Slide 22

23 ArF volume production is taking off Customer 90nm 65nm Logic & Foundry ArF content 2 layers 12 layers (6% of total) (33% of total) Timing Memory ArF content 4 layers 4 additional layers (8 layers total) (17% of total) (33% of total) Timing ( 07) ( 09) Source: ASML MCC / Slide 23

24 300 mm and ArF push ASP s upward Backlog development Sept 04 June 04 March 04 Dec 03 TWINSCAN 85% 82% 64% 62% 300 mm ArF 47% 39% 33% 26% New unit ASP 12.3 M 11.7 M 9.6 M 9.2 M / Slide 24

25 TWINSCAN XT:1400 EXtending TWINSCAN & ArF towards the 45-nm node PAS 5500/900 Q PAS 5500/1100 Q PAS 5500/1150 Q TWINSCAN XT:1400 NEW Q Na = 0.93 ArF >120 Shipments TWINSCAN AT:1100B Q TWINSCAN AT:1200B Q TWINSCAN AT:750 Q TWINSCAN AT:750S Q / Slide 25 TWINSCAN AT:400 Q TWINSCAN XT:1250D TWINSCAN AT:850 Q Q TWINSCAN >180 Shipments

26 ASML immersion strategy Hyper-NA immersion is on the ITRS and customer roadmaps for 55 nm and beyond Consortia and leading-edge customers will receive ASML commercial systems in 2004 and 2005 Collaboration with multiple customers on on-tool performance improvement will result in mature immersion tools Education and optimization of immersion process at customer starts before the introduction of hyper NA tools Strength of ASML concept is low financial risk for customers as high-na immersion tools can be field converted to dry Dry high-na tools can be field converted to wet for yield enhancement ASML s hyper-na tool, targeted for Q106, will be 4th generation immersion tool, ready for volume manufacturing / Slide 26

27 Agenda Market overview Achieving a strong financial base Performance improvements in 2004 Working from a strong financial base in 2005 Market share focus Delivering on commitment Summary / Slide 27

28 ASML is well positioned for all market conditions Market momentum due to superior product offering Cash generation due to improved working capital management and profitability Manufacturing flexibility in place to support changing market conditions / Slide 28

29 Commitment