Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi

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1 Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi matematik-økonomi studiet 1. basissemester Esben Høg I17 Aalborg Universitet 7. og 9. december 2009 Institut for Matematiske Fag Aalborg Universitet Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Topics Introduktion til Markedsøkonomi Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

2 Outline 1 Introduction to Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Regression Analysis in Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Introduction to Outline 1 Introduction to Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Regression Analysis in Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

3 Introduction to Because is part of Marketing we should understand: What is marketing? What is the marketing concept? What is marketing strategy? Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 3 Introduction to What is Marketing? Marketing has been defined by the AMA as an organizational function and a set of processes for creating, communicating and delivering value to customers and for managing customer relationships in ways that benefit the organization and its stakeholders. Esben Høg Ch (I171 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

4 Introduction to What is the Marketing Concept? The Marketing Concept is a business philosophy that holds that the key to achieving organizational goals consists of the company s being more effective than competitors in creating, delivering, and communicating customer value to its chosen markets. Esben Høg Ch (I171 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Introduction to What is Marketing Strategy? A Marketing Strategy consists of selecting a segment of the market as the company s target market and designing the proper mix of the product/service, price, promotion, and distribution system to meet the wants and needs of the consumers within the target market. Ch 1 6 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

Introduction to Learning by Doing: Let s Apply Marketing to a Restaurant Target market segment? Marketing strategy Location? Menu? Prices? Type? Advertising?

5 Introduction to Learning by Doing: Let s Apply Marketing to a Restaurant Target market segment? Marketing strategy Location? Menu? Prices? Type? Advertising? Ch 1 7 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Introduction to Restaurant Marketing Decisions What if you owned a restaurant located in Austin, Texas near the University of Texas? What would be your marketing strategy? How certain are you that you made the right decisions? Esben Høg Ch (I17 1 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

6 Introduction to Restaurant Marketing Decisions What if the restaurant was located near a university in a foreign country like China, Thailand, Italy, Iceland, or Peru? What would be your decisions? How certain are you that you made the right decisions now? So, what s going on? Class comments? Ch 1 9 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Introduction to Key Point To practice marketing; to implement the marketing concepts; to implement marketing strategy, managers must make decisions. Many decisions require additional information and marketing research is needed in order to supply that information. Ch 1 10 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

7 Introduction to We need to: Make the right decisions to Implement marketing Practice the marketing concept and Make the right decisions to select the right marketing strategy Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 11 Introduction to What is? (Burns and Bush Definition) Marketing research is the process of designing, gathering, analyzing, and reporting information that may be used to solve a specific marketing problem. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 12

8 Introduction to What is? AMA definition Marketing research: the function that links the consumer, customer, and public to the marketer through information information used to identify and define marketing opportunities and problems; generate, refine, and evaluate marketing actions; monitor marketing performance; and improve the understanding of marketing as a process. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Introduction to Market Research vs. Marketing Research Market research: the systematic gathering, recording, and analyzing of data with respect to a particular market, where market refers to a specific group in a specific geographic area. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 14

9 Introduction to What is the purpose of? To link the consumer to the marketer by providing information that can be used in making marketing decisions Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 15 Introduction to What are the uses of? Identify marketing opportunities and problems Generate, refine, and evaluate potential marketing actions Monitor marketing performance Improve marketing as a process Esben Høg Ch (I171 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

10 Introduction to Classifying Studies Identifying marketing opportunities and problems Market-demand determination Market segments identification Marketing audits SWOT analysis Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 17 Introduction to Classifying Studies Generating, refining, and evaluating potential marketing actions Proposed marketing-mix evaluation testing New-product prototype testing Advertising pretesting see Insight Express AdInsight ad pretesting Ch 1 18 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

11 Introduction to Classifying Studies Monitoring marketing performance Image analysis bank image analysis Tracking studies...sales, market shares of all brands in our category Customer satisfaction studies Esben Høg Ch (I171 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Introduction to Classifying Studies Improving marketing as a process The purpose of these studies is to expand knowledge (basic research) of marketing as a process rather than to solve a specific problem facing a company How does background music affect perceptions of products How preshopping information affects product returns Understanding cultural differences in consumer impatience all in Journal of Marketing. Ch 1 20 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

12 Introduction to The Marketing Information System An MIS is a structure consisting of people, equipment, and procedures to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute needed, timely, and accurate information to marketing decision makers. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 21 Introduction to Components of an MIS Internal Reports System Accounting information system data from income statement, etc. Marketing Intelligence System... Information coming from outside the firm Marketing Decision Support System (DSS) database with analytical tools System Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

13 Introduction to The System has a role in MIS because It gathers information not gathered by the other MIS component subsystems. Marketing research studies are conducted for a specific situation facing the company. People Magazine study which of three different cover stories should we use? Marketing research projects unlike other MIS components are not continuous they have a beginning and an end. Ad hoc studies/projects Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Introduction to Hot Topics in Marketing Research Online Growing Consumer/Respondent Resentment Globalization Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

14 Introduction to Hot Topics Online Marketing Research Online research: the use of computer networks, including the Internet, to assist in any phase of the marketing research process including development of the problem, research design, data gathering, analysis, and report writing and distribution. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 25 Introduction to Hot Topics Online Marketing Research Web-based research: research that is conducted on web applications; may use traditional methods as well as online research methods in conducting research on web-based applications Usability studies On-line survey research: collection of data using computer networks Ordering samples online via Survey Sampling, Inc. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

15 Introduction to Hot Topics Online Marketing Research On-line survey research: collection of data using computer networks Ordering samples online via Survey Sampling, Inc. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 1 27 Introduction to Hot Topics Growing Consumer/ Respondent Resentment Marketing research is invasive. Telemarketers and direct marketers have abused marketing research. The government through FTC has instituted a Do not call list. The marketing research industry is so far excluded from the ban of the do not call regulations. Ch 1 28 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

16 Introduction to Hot Topics Globalization As marketing firms spread globally, so did marketing research firms. According to Jack Honomichl, 48% of U.S. marketing research firms revenues were generated outside of U.S. The top 25 marketing research firms in the world earn 67% of their revenues outside their own country. 29 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Outline 1 Introduction to Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Regression Analysis in Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

17 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Types of Statistical Analyses Used in Data summarization: the process of describing a data matrix by computing a small number of measures that characterize the data set. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Types of Statistical Analyses Used in Four functions of data summarization: Summarizes the data Applies understandable conceptualizations Communicates underlying patterns Generalizes sample findings to the population Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

18 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Why is Statistical Analysis Used? Why Use Statistical Analysis? To summarize data The average price of a Gateway PC is $2,489 The low is $999, and the high is $4,678: this is the range The mode is $2,200 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Why is Statistical Analysis Used? Why Use Statistical Analysis? To show basic patterns in the data 30% buys at $1,500 or less 50% buys at between $2,500 and $1,500 20% buys at $2,500 or more Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

19 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Why is Statistical Analysis Used? Why Use Statistical Analysis? To interpret these patterns The majority of Gateway buyers pay $2,500 or less Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Why is Statistical Analysis Used? Why Use Statistical Analysis? To generalize the patterns to the population 95% of all Gateway buyers pay between $2,000 and $3,000 for their PCs Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

Types of Statistical Analyses Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Used in Types of Statistical Analyses Used

december 2009 39 / 68 10 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Types of Statistical Analyses Used in Five Types

generate conclusions about the population s characteristics based on the sample data 3 Differences analysis: used to

strength and direction of relationships between two or more variables 5 Predictive analysis: allows one to make

20 Types of Statistical Analyses Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Used in Types of Statistical Analyses Used in Statistical Analysis: Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Types of Statistical Analyses Used in Five Types of Statistical Analysis: 1 Descriptive analysis: used to describe the data set 2 Inferential analysis: used to generate conclusions about the population s characteristics based on the sample data 3 Differences analysis: used to compare the mean of the responses of one group to that of another group 4 Associative analysis: determines the strength and direction of relationships between two or more variables 5 Predictive analysis: allows one to make forecasts for future events Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

21 Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Understanding Data Via Descriptive Analysis Two sets of descriptive measures: Measures of central tendency: used to report a single piece of information that describes the most typical response to a question Measures of variability: used to reveal the typical difference between the values in a set of values Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Outline 1 Introduction to Basic Data Analysis: Descriptive Statistics Regression Analysis in Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

22 Regression Analysis in Understanding Prediction Prediction: statement t t of what is believed will happen in the future made on the basis of past experience or prior observation Esben Høg (I17 Ch 19Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Understanding Prediction Two Approaches Two approaches to prediction: Extrapolation: detects a pattern in the past and projects it into the future Predictive model: uses relationships among variables to make a prediction Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 19 3

23 Regression Analysis in Understanding Prediction Goodness of Prediction All predictions should be judged as to their goodness (accuracy). The goodness of a prediction is based on examination of the residuals (errors: comparisons of predictions to actual values). Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 19 4 Regression Analysis in Linear Relationships and Regression Analysis Regression analysis is a predictive analysis technique in which one or more variables are used to predict the level of another by use of the straight-line formula, y=a+bx. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

24 Regression Analysis in Bivariate Linear Regression Analysis Bivariate i regression analysis is a type of regression in which only two variables are used in the regression, predictive model. One variable is termed the dependent variable ab (y), the other is termed ed the independent variable (x). The independent variable is used to predict the dependent variable, and it is the x in the regression formula. Ch 19 7 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Bivariate Linear Regression Analysis With bivariate analysis, one variable is used to predict another variable. The straight-line equation is the basis of regression analysis. Ch 19 8 Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

25 Regression Analysis in Bivariate Linear Regression Analysis Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 19 9 Regression Analysis in Bivariate Linear Regression Analysis: Basic Procedure Independent variable: used to predict the independent variable (x in the regression straight-line equation) Dependent variable: that which is predicted (y in the regression straight-line equation) Least squares criterion: used in regression analysis; guarantees that the best straight-line slope and intercept will be calculated Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

26 Regression Analysis in Bivariate Linear Regression Analysis: Basic Procedure The regression model, intercept, and slope must always be tested for statistical significance Regression analysis predictions are estimates that have some amount of error in them Standard error of the estimate: used to calculate a range of the prediction made with a regression equation Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Testing for Statistical Significance of the Intercept and the Slope The t test is used to determine whether the intercepts and slope are significantly different from 0 (the null hypothesis). If the computed t value is greater than the table t value, the null hypothesis is not supported. Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

27 Regression Analysis in Making a Prediction Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Bivariate Linear Regression Analysis: Basic Procedure Regression predictions are made with confidence intervals. Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

28 Regression Analysis in Multiple Regression Analysis Multiple regression analysis uses the same concepts as bivariate regression analysis, but uses more than one independent variable. General conceptual model identifies independent and dependent variables and shows their basic relationships to one another. Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Multiple Regression Analysis: A Conceptual Model Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 19 16

29 Regression Analysis in Multiple Regression Analysis Multiple l regression means that t you have more than one independent variable to predict a single dependent variable Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch Regression Analysis in Example of Multiple Regression Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 19 18

30 Regression Analysis in Example of Multiple Regression We wish to predict customers intentions to purchase a Lexus automobile. We performed a survey that included an attitude-toward-lexus variable, a word-ofmouth variable, and an income variable. Here is the result: Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Example of Multiple Regression This multiple regression equation means that we can predict a consumer s intention to buy a Lexus level if you know three variables: Attitude toward Lexus, Friends negative comments about Lexus, and Income level using a scale with 10 income grades. Esben Høg Ch (I17 19 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

31 Regression Analysis in Example of Multiple Regression Calculation of Lexus purchase intention using the multiple regression equation: Multiple l regression is a powerful tool because it tells us which factors predict the dependent variable, which way (the sign) each factor influences the dependent variable, and even how much (the size of b) each factor influences it. Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Example of Multiple Regression Basic assumptions: A regression plane is used instead of a line A coefficient of determination (multiple R) indicates how well the independent variables can predict the dependent variable in multiple regression Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

32 Regression Analysis in Example of Multiple Regression Basic assumptions: Independence assumption: the independent variables must be statistically independent and uncorrelated with one another Variance inflation factor (VIF) can be used to assess and eliminate multicollinearity Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Multiple R Multiple R: also called the coefficient of determination, is a measure of the strength of the overall linear relationship in multiple regression. Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 19 24

33 Regression Analysis in Multiple R Multiple R ranges from 0 to +1 and represents the amount of the dependent variable is explained, or accounted for, by the combined independent variables. Researchers mentally convert the Multiple R into a percentage: Multiple R of.75 means that the regression findings explain 75% of the dependent variable. EsbenCh Høg 19(I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Making a Prediction Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Ch 19 29

34 Regression Analysis in Example of Multiple Regression: Special Uses Special uses of multiple regression: Dummy independent variable: scales with a nominal 0-versus-1 coding scheme Standardized beta coefficient: betas that indicate the relative importance of alternative predictor variables Multiple regression is sometimes used to help a marketer apply market segmentation Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68 Regression Analysis in Three Warnings Regarding Multiple Regression Analysis Regression is a statistical tool, not a cause-and-effect statement. Regression analysis should not be applied outside the boundaries of data used to develop the regression model. Chapter 19 is simplified regression analysis is complex and requires additional study. Ch Esben Høg (I17 Aalborg Universitet) Kvalitativ Introduktion til Matematik-Økonomi 7. og 9. december / 68

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