ANNUAL QUALITY REPORT

Transcription

1 REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA ANNUAL QUALITY REPORT FOR THE SURVEY MONTHLY REPORT ON SERVICE ACTIVITIES AND MONTHLY REPORT ON WHOLESALE TRADE FOR Prepared by: Barbara Troha Ažbe, Rudi Seljak Date: March /12

2 Table of Contents 0 Methodological Explanations Relevance Rate of Unavailable Statistics Accuracy Sampling Errors Sampling Error Coverage Bias Coverage Bias Non-Sampling Errors Non-Response Errors Unit Non-Response Rate Item Non-Response Rate Unsuccessful record linkage rate Imputation Rate Coverage Errors Overcoverage Rate Measurement Errors Editing Rate Rate of the Coherence of Data Sources Timeliness and Punctuality Timeliness Timeliness of the First Results Timeliness of Final Results Punctuality Punctuality of the First Results Accessibility and Clarity Accessibility Means Used for the Dissemination Clarity Results Presented Level (Detail) of Presentation Comparability Comparability over Time Length of Comparable Time Series Breaks in Time Series Geographical Comparability Comparability with Other Members of the European Statistical System Seasonal Adjustment Coherence Coherence between Provisional and Final Data Coherence between Provisional and Final Data Coherence with the Results of the Reference Survey Reference Survey Coherence with Reference Data Costs and Burdens Survey Costs of the Office Burden of Reporting Units /12

3 0 Methodological Explanations Brief Description of the Survey The purpose of the monthly report on service activities (STOR/M) and the monthly report on wholesale and commission trade (TRG-D/M) is to monitor current monthly changes of turnover without VAT in these activities. The goal of the monthly estimation is early detection of changes in economic development. The index of service activities and index of wholesale and commission trade are suitable for short-term observation and analyses of economic development. Legal Basis for the Survey The survey is conducted on the basis of the National Statistics Act (OJ RS, No. 45/95 and No. 9/01) and the annual programme of statistical surveys. Observation Units Observation units are enterprises whose principal activity is classified into the following service activities (H49, H50, H51, H52, H53, I55, I56, J58, J59, J60, J61, J62, J63, M69 in M70.2, M71, M73, M74, N78, N79, N80, N81.2, N82) and into wholesale and commission trade (G46) of the Standard Classification of Activities (SKD 2008 or NACE Rev. 2). Data refer to the whole enterprise, including eventual secondary activity not related to service activities or wholesale and commission trade. In addition, there are several enterprises in Slovenia whose principal activity is not among the activities mentioned above, but generate a significant share of their turnover with one of these activities as their secondary activity. Due to this fact our results were adjusted by having added the corresponding part of wholesale and commission trade results of these enterprises. Coverage The criteria for the definition of units included in the survey (approximately 8,000 units whose principal activity is classified into service activities and approximately 3,900 units whose principal activity is classified into wholwsalw and commission trade) are the halfyearly turnover of the enterprise and the number of persons in paid employment. Observation units which report the data on questionnaires are determined on the basis of their previous turnover. The units are sorted by descending turnover, and then we select a sufficient number of units from the begging of the list so as to exceed the defined share (approximately 60%) of turnover in the total turnover of units covered in the selected activity group. Key Variables Within the survey, only one variable is measured, turnover, which is also the key variable. Key Statistics The key statistics published are the indices of turnover current month/previous month and current month/same month of the previous year. Questionnaire The questionnaire is available on the website (only in Slovene): Methodological Explanations 3/12

4 The methodological explanations are available on the website: 1 Relevance 1.1 Rate of Unavailable Statistics The rate of unavailable statistics is 0. 2 Accuracy 2.1 Sampling Errors Sampling Error The survey is not conducted on the basis of a random sample, therefore there is no sampling error. 2.2 Coverage Bias Coverage Bias Table 2.1. Coverage bias, Indices Survey STOR/M in TRG-D/M Indices - SPRS Difference (SKD 46) 100,6 100,3 0,3 Accommodation and food service activities (SKD 55+56) 99,0 98,2 0,8 Publishing activities (SKD 58) 88,2 90,1-1,9 Information service activities (SKD 63) 94,3 101,7-7,4 Advertising and market research (SKD 73) 81,2 92,6-11,4 Comments: Table 2.1. shows the difference between annual indices calculated from the STOR/M and TRG-D/M survey and annual indices calculated from data of the Statistical Business Register of Slovenia - SPRS (average of compared to average of 2011). Indices calculated from SPRS data are higher for almost all groups than indices calculated from STOR/M and TRG-D/M. Therefore, elimination of a part of the population has a certain impact on STOR/M and TRG-D/M indices. The fact that SPRS indices are calculated from the final accounts data, which have to be submitted three months after the end of the year, also has a certain impact. At that time the data on turnover are more completed than the same data immediately after the end of the reference month reported for STOR/M and TRG-D/M survey. 4/12

5 2.3 Non-Sampling Errors Non-Response Errors Unit Non-Response Rate Table 2.2: Unit non-response rate, % Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Maj Jun. Jul. Avg. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dec. Average Service activities total1 1 15,7 15,6 15,5 18,6 18,5 18,6 18,0 18,2 18,2 17,8 17,9 18,1 17,6 5,6 5,7 5,7 7,2 7,3 7,2 7,0 6,9 7,0 6,8 6,8 6,9 6,7 Table 2.3: Weighted unit non-response rate, % Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Maj Jun. Jul. Avg. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dec. Average total 2,2 2,3 2,1 2,7 2,6 2,6 2,5 2,7 2,6 2,8 2,7 3,3 2,6 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,8 1,0 0,7 0,8 0,8 0,8 0,8 1,0 0,8 Variable for calculation of weighted unit non-response: annual turnover of the unit Table 2.4: Unit non-response rate with included quarterly VAT data, % total 1,4 1,2 1,1 1,4 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 1,5 0,8 0,9 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,0 1,2 1,1 1,2 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,1 Table 2.5: Weighted unit non-response rate with included quarterly VAT data, % total 0,6 0,7 0,5 0,9 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,9 0,8 1,1 1,0 1,6 0,9 0,3 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,7 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,5 Comments: A significant number of units constituting the category of unit non-response report VAT data on a quarterly, rather than on a monthly basis. For these units we estimate monthly income for the three months of the quarter at the end of the quarter. Tables 2.4 and 2.5 shows unit non-response rates with consideration of estimated monthly VAT data in the category of unit response Item Non-Response Rate We monitor only one variable, so the item non-response rate is equal to the unit non-response rate in general. Because of two different sources, we can talk about field unit non-response rate and non-response rate for units whose data we get from the administrative source. Table 2.6 shows the non-response rate for field units. The rate of unavailable data for units whose data we get from the administrative source will be shown in the next section. Table 2.6: Unit non-response rate for the field units, % total 1,9 2,3 2,0 2,5 2,9 2,9 2,4 3,3 2,9 3,3 3,1 4,4 2,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 1 Service activities-total includes divisions acording to SKD 2008: 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 69, 70.2, 71, 73, 74, 78, 79, 80, 81.2, 82. 5/12

6 Unsuccessful record linkage rate Table 2.7: Unsuccessful record linkage rate, % total 17,1 16,9 16,8 20,2 20,0 20,1 19,6 19,6 19,7 19,2 19,3 19,4 19,0 5,8 5,9 5,8 7,3 7,5 7,3 7,1 7,1 7,1 7,0 6,9 7,1 6,8 Comments: The table shows the percentage of units for which in the phase of data linkage with VAT database we were unable to determine their turnover Imputation Rate Table 2.8: Imputation rate, % total 17,0 16,0 16,1 19,1 18,9 18,9 18,4 18,6 18,7 18,3 18,4 18,9 18,1 7,4 6,2 6,3 7,7 7,9 7,6 7,5 7,2 7,7 7,1 7,1 7,7 7,3 Comments: In the survey we impute (fill in) the missing data and data obtained from administrative sources, which were at the stage of automated data editing marked as too prominent Coverage Errors Overcoverage Rate Table 2.9: Over-coverage rate, % total 0,3 0,5 0,7 0,8 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,7 1,8 2,1 1,2 0,0 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,8 0,8 1,2 0,5 Comments: The number of units which represent over-coverage can be divided into ineligible units (we include them in coverage because of lack of information, but do not belong there) and units which were at the inclusion in coverage eligible, but became ineligible at the time of survey implementation. Data in the table for January show ineligibility which results from coverage preparation, data for other months show ineligibility which results from the dynamics of demographic changes Measurement Errors Editing Rate Table 2.10: Editing rate, % total 1,2 0,4 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,8 0,5 1,8 0,5 0,6 0,5 0,7 0,4 0,6 0,4 0,7 0,3 0,3 0,7 0,6 Comments: By field units, where the control takes place interactively at the data entry, we do not have accurate records of the editing rate, but only an estimate. For we estimate that we checked the data for less than 10% of units, and actually corrected data for approximately 4% of units. In the tax data automatic data editing is performed, where all adjustments take place through computer applications. The table shows the editing rate, where only automatic adjustments of tax data are considered. 6/12

7 2.3.4 Rate of the Coherence of Data Sources Table 2.11: Rate of coherence of data sources, total 0,3 0,7 0,9 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,2 1,7 0,6 0,3 2,0 0,7 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,1 Comments: For field units for which data are obtained through a questionnaire, we have (with rare exceptions) the data from the VAT database, so that this (sub)population can be compared to the consistency of data from two different sources. The difference is given in terms of absolute difference of indices. 3 Timeliness and Punctuality 3.1 Timeliness Timeliness of the First Results Table 3.1: Timeliness of the First Release, Reference period Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average Date of publishing Time lag (T + ) (days) T+60 T+61 T+61 T+60 T+61 T+62 T+59 T+60 T+61 T+58 T+62 T+59 T Timeliness of Final Results The data become final 10 months after the end of the reference period. 3.2 Punctuality Punctuality of the First Results Table 3.2: Punctuality of the First Release, Reference period Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average Publishing date Announced date Difference (days) Comments: The release calendar with advanced release dates for all months of the reference year is published at the beginnig of the year on a website of the Statistical Office of the RS: 7/12

8 4 Accessibility and Clarity 4.1 Accessibility Means Used for the Dissemination Table 4.1: Dissemination channels No.: Channel Used 1 Website YES 2 Publication in the SI-STAT data portal YES 3 Interative web tools NO 4 Ad hoc prepared data for users according to their specification YES 5 Data available through telephone answering machine NO 6 General printed publications YES 7 Thematic printed publications NO 8 Databases (e.g. Social Science Data Archives ) YES 9 Statistically protected micro data NO 10 Early access to data in view of the standard protocol NO 4.2 Clarity Results Presented For service activities and wholesale the results in the First Release are published in the form of indices of turnover growth for current month/previous month and current month/same month of the previous year. From the data for the current month, which we compare to the data from the previous month, influences of the season and calendar are eliminated. Data for the current month that are compared to data for the same month of the previous year are adjusted to the number of working days. In the SI-STAT database nominal base year indices, original and seasonally adjusted and nominal indices current month/previous month and current month/the same month of the previous year, original values are published Level (Detail) of Presentation Results are published according to SKD 2008 (NACE Rev. 2). In accordance with the Regulation they are published at three levels: the level of class or group, division level or other aggregate level (sum of classes, sum of classes and groups). 5 Comparability 5.1 Comparability over Time Length of Comparable Time Series Time series of indices calculated according to the current methodology are available from January 2000 onwards. Until the end of, the length of the series is 156 months. 8/12

9 5.1.2 Breaks in Time Series On 1 January 2008 all Member States of the European Union launched a new classification of activities of business entities NACE Rev 2, which replaced the existing NACE Rev.1.1. In Slovenia the national version of the standard classification, called SKD 2008, came into force. It includes the entire European classification of activities, but also adds national divisions. We started publishing service and wholesale statistics according to the SKD 2008 in 2009 for the reference periods in Due to changes in the classification of activities, the time series of statistical data had to be recalculated (backcasting) according to the new classification (from 2000 to 2008). 5.2 Geographical Comparability Comparability with Other Members of the European Statistical System The survey is based on Council Regulation concerning short-term statistics and the Eurostat methodological recommendations for short-term indicators. Council Regulation concerning short-term statistics and Eurostat methodological recommendations for short-term indicators take into account all the European countries which transmit their data about service activities and wholesale to Eurostat. This ensures good comparability of data between countries and good quality of aggregates calculated from these data at the EU level. Because of various specialties, for instance different methods of data collection (field surveys or usage of administrative resources) and different ways of calculating indices, there may be differences that affect the comparability of data. More information about the methodology of individual EU Member States is available on y. 5.3 Seasonal Adjustment Indices are seasonally adjusted with the Tramo/Seats method based on ARIMA models. Every year we check the models thoroughly, taking into account the currently available period. If the model is changed, we strive to keep changes at a minimum. The tables show unadjusted indices, seasonally adjusted indices (SA) and working-day adjusted (WDA) indices. The SA values are the values from which the seasonality and the calendar effects have been removed, therefore the SA values include the trend-cycle component and the irregular component. Working day adjusted values are values which are corrected for the calendar effects. The calendar effects include the working day effect, the effect of Slovenian holidays, incl. the Easter effect and the leap-year effect. The seasonality and the calendar effects are removed in the case where the effects are statistically significant. 9/12

10 6 Coherence 6.1 Coherence between Provisional and Final Data Coherence between Provisional and Final Data Table 6.1: Coherence between provisional and final data, Provisional data 87,8 102,3 116,3 88,9 105,4 97,0 98,9 96,6 102,7 106,9 93,0 92,1 Final data 88,2 102,3 118,2 88,7 106,0 97,2 99,6 97,6 103,7 108,6 93,5 93,8 Difference 0,4 0,0 1,9 0,2 0,6 0,2 0,7 1,0 1,0 1,7 0,5 1,7 0,8 Accommodation and food service activities Provisional data 90,4 88,1 118,0 98,2 111,2 104,0 101,0 108,6 88,4 90,6 90,5 110,6 Final data 87,6 88,6 120,0 97,8 111,2 105,1 101,7 109,2 87,9 89,3 90,2 111,6 Difference 2,8 0,5 2,0 0,4 0,0 1,1 0,7 0,6 0,5 1,3 0,3 1,0 0,9 Information service activities Provisional data 87,0 77,2 104,7 100,1 109,2 101,4 91,5 95,4 101,9 111,0 96,0 107,8 Final data 85,4 77,2 109,4 98,5 109,6 103,5 91,3 95,2 102,9 119,4 96,4 113,7 Difference 1,6 0,0 4,7 1,6 0,4 2,1 0,2 0,2 1,0 8,4 0,4 5,9 2,2 Advertising and market research Provisional data 39,2 132,4 127,4 104,6 103,8 90,6 76,9 83,1 134,1 120,1 99,7 116,0 Final data 37,0 130,0 127,8 106,6 103,1 91,0 72,5 83,3 149,9 116,1 99,1 119,6 Difference 2,2 2,4 0,4 2,0 0,7 0,4 4,4 0,2 15,8 4,0 0,6 3,6 3,1 Comments: The table shows the absolute differences between how much the final data on the turnover indices are different from the first data published within T+60. A comparison is made for the real turnover index for the current month compared to the previous month, unadjusted data. 6.2 Coherence with the Results of the Reference Survey Reference Survey Source for comparison: Survey on business tendency in services (PA-STOR). 10/12

11 The purpose of the qualitative Business Tendency in services is to get monthly information about past, current and future state of the economy. Survey results are the basis for evaluation of the confidence indicators in services and later on also for the sentiment indicator, which includes confidence indicators in manufacturing, services, consumer confidence indicator, retail trade and construction. We have been carrying out survey with the harmonised questionnaires, methodology and periodicity, which have been used in EU Member States for several decades. Therefore, all data are directly comparable. Compared variable: Indices of turnover in service activities and confidence indicators in services Coherence with Reference Data Chart 6.1: Correalation between Indices of turnover in service activities and convidence idicator balance indices Confidence indicator Comments: The surveys differ in methodologies, since PA-STOR is a qualitative survey aiming at monitoring the opinions of directors on certain economic indicators within the enterprise, while the STOR/M survey is a quantitative survey aimed at monitoring value variables. 7 Costs and Burdens 7.1 Survey Costs of the Office Table 7.1: Survey costs at the Statistical Office Reference period Number of working hours spent Number of reporting units that had to fill in questionnaires 746 Survey period mesečna Number of questionnaires per year (total) Indices of turnover in service activities SURS Burden of Reporting Units Table 7.2: Burden of the reporting units 11/12

12 Reference period Number of reporting units that submitted the data 715 Annual number of questionnaires per unit 12 Time spent to fill in a questionnaire (hours) 0,1 Total time spent (hours) /12