Prevailing 2013 Economic & Consumer Trends

Transcription

1 Prevailing 2013 Economic & Consumer Trends Ralf Matthaes Regional Managing Director Cambodia Laos Myanmar Vietnam 1

2 THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY 2012 / Q macro economic overview

3 The Ugly Un-real estate market No movement in the real-estate market Commercial rents have fallen up to 40% Until the real estate market recovers, Vietnam will continue to struggle 3

4 The Ugly Consumer Confidence (%) Bad Debt The State Bank of Vietnam reported that at the end of March this year Vietnam's bad debts ratio amounted US $9.6 billion U.S = 8.6% total outstanding credit. Vietnam s 100 largest state enterprises are indebted about US $50 billion, or more than one third of GDP. Source: Reuters Consumer confidence has dropped due to domestic economic woes Bad debt will cause havoc in the near future Source: TNS CCIP urban only

5 Bankruptcies 39,000 49,000 The Bad 54, Tourism (Million) Q Jul-2013 Bankruptcies are a sign of the times, but also a measure of Vietnam s bubble popping Tourism is flat, down from 19% growth, and should have negative growth in 2013 Source: GSO

6 GDP Growth - Bad or Good? 6.78% 5.89% 5.03% 4. 9% Jul-2013 GDP = 4.9% slow down of growth actually has positive effects Source: GSO

7 The Good Exports (US Billion) Trade Deficit (US Billion) Jul-2013 Exports are Vietnam s saving grace = US $72 Billion end July Jul-2013 Trade Deficit = a sign of fiscal responsibility or lack of growth? Source: GSO

8 Inflation (%) 18.13% The Good ATL Ad Spend (US Million) 900M 726M 760M 625M 11.75% 9.21% 6.81% Jul-2013 Inflation is in check, but will it remain, as typically Q.4 sees a spike Source: GSO Jul-2013 Advertising spend looks to grow at a healthy 19% Source: Kantar Media

9 The Good New Foreign Direct Investment 60,271 A Rebound? 9,097 17,855 16,345 17,200 11,559 13,013 11, Jul-2013 New Investment Implemented Capital Source: Vietnam Economic Times TNS Consumer Confidence Poll TNS

10 Smartphone Ownership Growth of smartphone ownership Vietnam % Global Emerging Asia Vietnam 2013 Vietnam 2012 B1. Device ownership Base: All respondents Global Emerging Asia 3491 Vietnam 500 Male 250 Female Local Report Vietnam TNS

11 Automotive Sales +10.5% 24,166 26,691 Jan - April 2012 Jan - April 2013 TNS Consumer Confidence Poll TNS 11

12 2013 YTD Economic indices scorecard Ugly = 3 - Real Estate Confidence bad debt Bad = 3 - Bankruptcies - FMCG growth Tourism Good = 5 - Modest shift towards recovery YTD 2013 is a mixed bag, some ugly, some bad, some good Good time to invest for the future

13 Prevailing 2013 Consumer Trends

14 Consumer Confidence (%) Consumer confidence has dropped due to domestic economic woes Source: TNS CCIP urban only

15 Recession impact SEC differences are stark Education, life stage impact views & involvement A-B: relatively safe & stable in the storm, yet conscious of what s happening around/ to poorer people D-E :are doing it tough; it s really tough in E- managing a family on 3 million VND a month I don t feel much different. I don t feel the impact of economic crisis on me vs too much stress, the worry always sticks in my mind, we don t even have time to feel happy or relaxed

16 Is your present job is safe or not? Employment fears on the rise leading to more caution, less spend Jan Aug Present job is safe Chance of unemployment Don't know Source: TNS 2013 VCCI Urban only

17 Forecast in the next 12 months Value of the 2013 Consumer Confidence index = Consumer Confidence index = Employment The cost of living Vietnam's economy My personal Foreign investment Far worse A little worse Same A little better Far better DK Consumer confidence index has dropped a massive 12 points in just 6 months, driven by consumer fears across most indices - not reassuring Source: TNS 2013 VCCI Urban only 17

18 1. Consumers spending will be down in 2013 Consumer backlash to economic downturn will result in specific spend cuts Entertainment & dining out House hold care products Household utilities Personal equipment (mobile Home appliances (wash Transportation Personal care products Communications Health care products/services Food & beverages products Education Less Same More DK Source: TNS 2013 VCCI Urban only 18

19 2. Mobile device as the everything hub As the availability of wireless broadband expands & the cost of advanced mobile phones drop, the mobile device will become the preferred hub for digital activity. Absolutely! DEVELOP YOUTH APPLICACTIOSN FOR YOUR BUSINESS

20 3. Authenticity matters Authenticity will become paramount for brands as they look to regain credibility and trust. Consumers have lost a great deal of faith in brands; they are searching for truths and clamouring for transparency. Yes! I need to know the companies where the products or services are from so I have confidence to use them GUARANTEE QUALITY / SAFETY

21 4. Modern trade growth is in decline FMCG Value growth Value contribution July 12 July 13 July 11 July 12 July 13 General Trade 15% Modern Trade 19% Generally prices at modern trade have out reached consumers pockets, while traditional trade still offers affordability and security

22 5. Buy / use less / conserve / save5. Value growth (%) Price growth (%) Volume growth (%) Value Growth down to 11.6% and volume down to 4.8% Source: Kantar Worldpanel Urban only

23 Marketing trends

24 1. Internet as a research tool ENSURE YOU ARE DIGITAL As the value of purchases increases, the amount of research both off and particularly online also increases Source: TNS Digital life 2012

25 2. Promotion Impact Coupon Crazy Discounted prices are preferred promotions, driving Groupon & on-line coupon discount popularity On-line Coupons I often buy stuff I don t even need right now, because prices are so cheap Discounted price Free gift with purchase Sweepstake/Luck y draw prizes Get free product/sample with multiple purchase Monetary gift Source: TNS VietCycle 2011 Urban only

26 3. Media Spend driven by security of TV Media 2013 (Q1) 2012 (Q1) Difference TV % Radio % Newspaper % Magazines % % May be due to advertisers shifting form BLT to ATL for measurability but has slowed in Q.3 to 19% YTD TNS Consumer Confidence Poll TNS 26

27 4.Brand innovation & new product launches X-Men Manly international standard ads for men Knorr All-in-one new multiple spices for specific meals Pro Beauty New Yogurt gives you beautiful skin Kent Taste & strength control filter Non to menthol

28 Summary + / - 28

29 5 P s to consider in 2013 People / Vietnamese Mindsets VN Consumers stuck for opportunities need reason to believe Confidence down savings up Education & Health industries booming Psychological change afoot from community to self 16 million modern youth become consumers over next 10 years Product / Extension F&B is the soul of the nation 47% of spend extend portfolio Address hygiene & food safety concerns and create guarantees The word is not innovation it is NEW Product Position Convenience and price points critical to success Vietnamize or authenticate

30 5 P s to consider in 2013 Promotion Digital think APS / multiple entertainment media / product research Develop coupon scheme Place Review distribution GT vs Modern and urban vs rural Significant regional differences require different approaches Drive efforts in rural Vietnam Price Over half of consumers are suffering from recession Review pack type / SKU offer Discount with an explanation / Groupons Vietnamese brands are not only competing on price

31 2013 Economic forecast Negatives State Debt is huge Sagging consumer confidence Unemployment Slower growth & spend Reliance on cheap exports Will to address core issues? Continued slight downward trend but also elements beginning to improve Positives Vietnam still largely untapped Global / SEA investment interest Overseas remittance More competitive / Lower prices Cheaper cost of entry Certain categories growing very well

32 Growth summary 2013 focus Drive differentiation in offer Understand price points Drive loyalty & assurance Cross promote Be faster than competition Maximize digital reach Bottom is in sight the only way is up! 32

33 Thank you