Europe's Top 10 Fixed Line Operators Need New Revenue (Executive Summary) Executive Summary

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1 Europe's Top 10 Fixed Line Operators Need New Revenue (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: 17 September 2003

2 Authors Lisa Unden Alex Winogradoff This document has been published to the following Marketplace codes: TELC-WW-EX-0666 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice

3 Europe's Top 10 Fixed Line Operators Need New Revenue (Executive Summary) Finding a Way Out of Debt Most European incumbent fixed line telecommunications operators are struggling to reduce costs and debt piles, and cost cutting alone won't revive their fortunes. Total net debt for the top 10 fixed line operators in Western Europe reached 213 billion euros at the end of Their total revenue reached 233 billion euros across all their operations, including their non-western European divisions. Growth was only 3.3 percent between 2001 and 2002, versus 9.6 percent between 2000 and Internet services and IP data are bright spots, while traditional voice and data services show negative to slow growth. According to Gartner Dataquest's market sizing, the top 10 fixed line voice, data, Internet and mobile divisions represented almost 66 percent of the total Western European telecom market at the end of At the end of 2001, they represented 67 percent, losing out to competition during These operators reflect the health and direction of the Western European telecom market. Faced with declining revenue in the fixed line voice arena and an economy that is less than buoyant, the top 10 operators have huge challenges. They must contain costs and reduce debt but also make declining revenue streams positive and invest in new and fast growing areas. Figure 1-1 shows voice, data and Internet and mobile segmentations for the top 10 Western European operators. Figure 1-1 Top 10 Western European Operators, Revenue Segmentation Year End, 2002 Data and Internet (16%) Mobile Voice and Data (33%) Wholesale Voice and Data (14%) Fixed Line Voice (37%) Top 10 Western European Operators' Revenue, Billion Euros Source: Gartner (June 2003) 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 1

4 2 Europe's Top 10 Fixed Line Operators Need New Revenue (Executive Summary) Fixed Voice Is Still a Staple Despite Revenue Declines Selling off the core voice network is not an option for incumbent voice operators because it represents such a large proportion of revenue 35.6 percent at the end of 1Q03. Yet fixed line voice services will continue to be considered a "dog" by the financial community primarily because of declining revenue. On the other hand, it is the staple income that allows operators to develop new revenue sources. Operators must increase revenue per customer from fixed voice or other revenue sources, otherwise universal service cost obligations will be a heavy burdenonfinances. The Silver Lining: New Data and Internet Services IP-related data and Internet services, such as multiprotocol label switching (MPLS), and variants of digital subscriber line (xdsl) continue to grow, stimulated by customer demands for more bandwidth and sophisticated services. This segment will become an ever-increasing proportion of the top 10 incumbents' combined revenues. Incumbent operators must carefully invest more of their capital or operating expenditure in next-generation infrastructure, which will create new services revenue to mitigate declining voice revenue and losses to competition. This challenge will mean optimizing return on investment (ROI) to retain or migrate strategic and profitable customers to advanced data services, while managing declining revenue streams for legacy data and voice services. Wholesale Will Continue to Generate Revenue The wholesale market for the top 10 operators represented more than 25 percent of their retail fixed line voice, data and Internet revenues by the end of For the near future there will be a robust wholesale market as traffic on networks continues to rise and mobile and alternative operators expand their service portfolios. Despite its commoditization, the wholesale market will continue to represent at least a quarter of the market for fixed telephony services. Prices are still falling in many markets because supply exceeds demand, but this is likely to be mitigated within the next two years as demand continues to grow and outstrip capacity. Pressures from voice over IP will continue to drive down voice prices. But growth in the amount of calls will compensate for the drop in price. However, only the players with extensive and efficient networks will maintain and grow their wholesale revenue. Poorly funded operators will have to retrench to domestic operations or to where they have a dominant network to compete effectively. The Western European wholesale telecom market has had some spectacular failures, such as KPN Qwest. There have also been many network consolidations driven by the crash of the dot-com era, which affected regional markets, especially Scandinavia. Mobile Services Boom Despite Economic Difficulties Total mobile service revenue in Western Europe grew by 13.6 percent during 2002, to billion euros, of which the top 10 Western European operators' mobile divisions represented 58.6 percent Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 September 2003

5 Europe's Top 10 Fixed Line Operators Need New Revenue (Executive Summary) 3 Challenges Ahead Mobile penetration in Western Europe continues to grow, driven by increased usage (which equals higher average revenue per user [ARPU]) and growth in mobile connections. Mobile penetration in Western Europe reached 80 percent by the end of 1Q03, and is expected to grow to 83 percent by the end of The rise in penetration comes from increased connections in the youth segment, as a result of more targeted advertising and simpler subscriptions, such as monthly contracts. An increasing trend for business users to have separate mobile phones for business and personal use has helped revenue to grow. Revenue growth has also been spurred by price competition, innovative marketing and promotions. Another factor has been new and enhanced mobile services, portals, content and applications: for example, mobile data, Internet and video such as Vodafone live!. These will continue to support mobile revenue. If operators fail to increase their mobile revenue streams, the pressure will be on data and Internet service porfolios to fight declining revenue in fixed line voice services. Underneath this relatively rosy picture, critical challenges face incumbents. These will negatively affect their long-term health if not confronted and addressed quickly: A weak economic climate. Declining revenues in core voice activities because of competition. Massive debt and cash flow problems because of historical fiscal irresponsibility. Declining and weak capital and operational expenditure investments for future competitiveness. Heavy-handed regulation (such as unbundling) and universal service funding. Some challenges are of the incumbents' own making and under their management or investor control. The external environment, however, poses a different set of problems that need to be included in their business plans and operations. Incumbents Too Slow to Address the Challenges Some reductions in debt have been made, but there is still a long way to go. Debt piles are hampering technological change and innovation. Focus has shifted from R&D to cost savings and extending the life of existing capabilities to gain operational efficiency. However, investments in infrastructure are still under way, with incumbents such as Telecom Italia rolling out next-generation infrastructure faster than others operators. Telecom Italia has already completed the core MPLS rollout and is looking to expand this out to the WAN, LAN and metropolitan area network (MAN). This has been an ongoing project over the past couple of years and spending is expected to intensify over the next two years to encompass the MANandLANdevelopment. Operators that continue to invest in upgrading and developing their infrastructure will benefit in the long term from faster recovery in terms of profit margins. Investment in enhancing network infrastructure will improve cost efficiencies. Other operators will need to increase their spending on infrastructure upgrades to compete effectively against rivals Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 September 2003

6 4 Europe's Top 10 Fixed Line Operators Need New Revenue (Executive Summary) Recommendations Further radical changes are still needed to improve earnings and reduce debt. Operators must invest aggressively and wisely in new areas that will generate revenue to help mitigate losses from competition and service migration or substitution. The telecom market is not likely to improve hugely before the end of Unlesstheeconomyturnsaroundandshowssignsofrobustgrowthoverthe next year, improvements to operator financials are likely to be small. Operations and financials will have been made as efficient as possible and costs will already have been cut drastically by the end of Western European operators should consider taking the following actions in the voice, data, wholesale and mobile sectors: Stem losses in fixed voice revenue through better marketing and innovative bundling of voice services and features, Internet, mobile, and mobile-to-fixed services integration. Increasingly and carefully invest more capital and operating expenditure in next-generation infrastructure that will enable higher bandwidth and new services revenue such as cost-effective IP services (for example, IP virtual private network [VPN]), wireless and Ethernet solutions. Expand wholesale service portfolios by pursuing higher-margin managed services to sell to alternative operators, mobile operators and ISPs. This will gain market share from independent wholesale providers. Manage churn, increase connection numbers and improve ARPU in the mobilesector.thisiscrucialtooverallgrouprevenueinamaturingand highly competitive market. Links For the full Focus Report, see "Europe's Top 10 Fixed Line Operators Need New Revenue," which is published to the Telecom Public and Mobile Services Europe and Public Network Services Worldwide Clusters: TCPM-EU-FR-0122 TCPS-WW-FR Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 September 2003

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