CREATING WIN WIN TRADE PROMOTIONS. Kevin Oostdyk Group Director, Custom Analytics, Nielsen

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1 CREATING WIN WIN TRADE PROMOTIONS Kevin Oostdyk Group Director, Custom Analytics, Nielsen

2 CPG STILL SPUTTERING FOR GROWTH IN NORTH AMERICA United States Canada Dollars Units Nielsen: ScanTrack Total Tracked Sale 52 wks ending April 13, 2013 Dollars Units Nielsen: MarketTrack Total Tracked Sale 52 wks ending April 6,

3 CPG CHALLENGES FOR GROWTH $$$ Cautious Consumers Changing Retail Landscape Face of the Canadian Shopper 3

4 WHAT ARE CONSUMERS DOING TO SAVE? Top saving activities: Only buy items when on sale 75% Use coupons 71% Stock up when on promotion 66% Seek out stores with lower prices 62% Buy lower priced store brands 53% Buy lower priced name brands 46% Shop at discount retailers 43% Source: Nielsen PanelViews Survey Canada May 2012 $$$ 4

5 VALUE MOTIVATORS ARE DRIVING CPG GROWTH 35% of dollar sales are sold with a price cut 48% of units sales are sold with a price cut +6% growth in TPR sales - fueling growth +6% +10% increase in the coupon activity growth from Discount Retailers Source: Nielsen MarketTrack & Homescan Q CPG Review 5

6 PRICE DIVERGENCE IS ON THE DECLINE A POSITIVE TREND % of Categories Divergent Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, National Grocery/Drug/Mass, 26 Selected Categories, 52 weeks ending November 17 th or 24th,

7 PRICE DIVERGENCE DOES NOT HELP RETAIL MARKET SHARE Maritimes Quebec Ontario West Price Convergent & Growing Market Share Price Divergent & Growing Market Share Price Convergent & Declining Market Share Price Divergent & Declining Market Share 7

8 PRICE DIVERGENCE DOES NOT IMPROVE BRAND LOYALTY PRICE CONVERGENT PRICE DIVERGENT Increase Manufacturer Loyalty 7 categories 3 categories Decreased Manufacturer Loyalty 7 categories 8 categories Source: Price Divergence,: Nielsen MarketTrack, National GDM, 52 weeks to Nov 17 or 24, Bolded Are Top Five Fastest Declining Divergence Categories Loyalty: Nielsen Homescan, National All Channels, Major Manufacturers, $ Share of Requirements, 52 weeks to Nov 17,

9 SALES WITH A PRICE CUT HAVE GROWN DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS % Sales on TPR 2009 to 2012 Sales Growth (in Billions) % 3.9 Promoted $ Growth Total $ Growth 30.3% Source: Nielsen MarketTrack National G+D+MM 52 weeks to December 15,

10 IT S IMPORTANT TO REALLY UNDERSTAND INCREMENTAL Nielsen Innovation: Promotion Source of Volume Market Expansion Brand Switch Incremental Volume New Paradigm Store Switch Time Switch Subsidized Volume Non Promoted Volume Past Paradigm Subsidized Volume Non Promoted Volume Purchase Behaviors 10

11 WHILE PROMOTIONS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY, THE BENEFITS ARE NOT WHAT THEY SEEM LOW HIGH Retailer Benefit LOW PROMOTIONAL IMPACT FRAMEWORK Retailer Growth 22% Subsidization Source: Nielsen Promotional Source of Volume Models Manufacturer Benefit Mutual Growth 14% Manufacturer Growth 42% 22% HIGH 11

12 INCREASED PROMOTIONS DRIVE TRADE SPEND AND PROFIT CHALLENGES FROM 2009 to 2012 Estimated Trade Spend Impact +$1.1 BILLION Estimated Sales Impact Estimated Retail Profit Loss +$270 MILLION $540 MILLION 12

13 THERE IS A NEED FOR OPTIMIZATION Significant Spend Unsophisticated & Unsatisfied Key Challenges 2 nd largest expense in CPG 40% of promotions lose money Measuring Trade Efficiency Trade Promotion 2.5x ad spend Out of stocks ~8%, the billion dollar problem 70%+ unhappy with inability to manage funds Retail Execution v Plan Technology Alignment

14 LEADER S SALES ORGANIZATIONS FOCUS ON THE CONSUMER AND RELY HEAVILY ON ANALYTICS Market Segmentation for CPG Companies Use of Analytics Low High 16% 15% Leaders 41% 28% Low High Consumer Focus Stock price grew 1.6 times faster than peers since 2009 Source: 2013 IBM/Kantar Retail Global CPG Marketing and Trade Study based on input from 356 decision makers in the sales organization orf CPG companies 14

15 LEADERS HAVE MORE CLOUT AND COLLABORATION WITH RETAILERS Challenge for CPG Companies Needing retail approval to execute their plans Retailers pushing back on them Extended length of annual planning process Concern for Leaders compared to Others 2.8x Less 1.4x Less 1.4x Less Source: 2013 IBM/Kantar Retail Global CPG Marketing and Trade Study based on input from 356 decision makers in the sales organization of CPG companies 15

16 LEADERS HAVE REALIZED IGNORANCE IS NOT BLISS OR PROFITABLE Challenge for CPG Companies Cost of Trade Promotions Increasing focus on price optimization Commodity Price Increases Concern for Leaders compared to Others 1.6x More 1.5x More 1.2x More Source: 2013 IBM/Kantar Retail Global CPG Marketing and Trade Study based on input from 356 decision makers in the sales organization orf CPG companies 16

17 DISCIPLINED PROCESS WINS THE DAY Strategic Planning Post Event Analytics Retail Execution Integrated Consistent Analytics and Retail sales data leveraged throughout the process Tactical Planning Promotion Management

18 WINNING REQUIRES MULTIPLE COMPONENTS Expertise Content Cadence Scale Culture Leadership and domain knowledge Descriptive and predictive Clear framework & knowledge path Evolves with the market and teams Embed and propagate 18

19 ONE CLIENT S STORY TO IMPROVE EXECUTION Gaps between Strategies and Tactics Goal: Improved Trade Spend Effectiveness One big pain point A big win builds momentum 19

20 EXISTING TOOLS/SOLUTIONS LEFT GAPS MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS DIFFERENT NEEDS EXECUTION DISCONNEC TS WITH STRATEGY CAN T ACTIVATE AT RETAIL ONE INCONSISTENT APPROACH 20

21 SALES ENGAGMENT DRIVES EXPERTISE AND EXECUTION Increasing collaboration Teams understand the data Simulations relevant to local market Field empowered to make decisions 21

22 A HUGE WIN Improved Revenue $9.5 MILLION Improved Profit $6.3 MILLION Trade Savings $1.4 MILLION 22

23 CLIENT IS BUILDING UPON THIS MOMENTUM NEW CONTENT AND TOOLS Customer Influence Collaborative Plans Looking for additional ROI opportunities 23

24 LET S PARTNER TO DRIVE BOTTOM LINE RESULTS 1% is a meaningful start toward greater goals 5% 10% + improvement in trade efficiency Reduced operational costs and time delays 5% 10% + improvement on forecast accuracy Rapid time to value 24

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