Lecture 3 Empirical Methods for Pricing. Jacob LaRiviere & Justin Rao

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1 Lecture 3 Empirical Methods for Pricing Jacob LaRiviere & Justin Rao

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5 rich and precise

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7 competitors will respond Tools to measure demand often hold competitor behavior fixed.

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11 Price US Laptop Sales in August Sales (An observation/dot is a laptop model)

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18 particular product markets rather than demand for a There are J products that compete in a market (e.g. smartphones) Each product has an attractiveness a j that depends on its features x j and price p j

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21 Model assumptions Utility from owning a smartphone 4 Additional utility from iphone 1 Change in attractiveness from $1 increase in price Product Price Baseline Utility Attractiveness (net of price) Market Share iphone Rest

22 Model assumptions Utility from owning a smartphone 4 Additional utility from iphone 1 Change in attractiveness from $1 increase in price Product Price Baseline Utility Attractiveness (net of price) Market Share iphone Rest

23 Model assumptions Utility from owning a smartphone 4 Additional utility from iphone 1 Change in attractiveness from $1 increase in price Product Price Baseline Utility Attractiveness (net of price) Market Share iphone Rest

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27 cannibalization, need logit

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42 Flaws with open-ended questions Hypothetical bias Monadic pricing (not comparison based) General Issues (sampling, information, etc.)

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45 Open Ended Questions: - Can confuse people, leading to unrealistic responses - May not reflect true purchasing behavior hypothetical bias: people tend to overstate willingness to pay in surveys because they don t have to really part with the money - Decisions in the real world are inherently comparative

46 Adding realism: If Office 365 University costs $89.99 a year and comes with 100GB cloud storage include, and Open Office is free and has 0 GB cloud storage include, which would you buy?

47 Answer depends on: - Perception of Office 365 vs. Open Office value - Included attributes - Valuation on cloud storage - Consumer characteristics (income, intended usage intensity and applications, etc.)

48 If Office 365 University costs $49.99 a year and comes with 100GB cloud storage include, and Open Office is free and has 0 GB cloud storage include, which would you buy?

49 Consumer knowledge and competitive offers play a key role, are your hypothetical respondents as informed as market participants?

50 If Office 365 University costs $89.99 a year and comes with 100GB cloud storage include, and Open Office is free and Dropbox offers 2 GB free cloud storage, which would you buy?

51 Percent Choosing Office Higher sensitivity to low moderate levels of cloud storage

52 Percent Choosing Office Responsive to large degrees of cloud storage, up to 100GB

53 Not enough Respondents Distorted Incentives Naturalism Participants do not match customers

54 People often report astronomical valuations to save (cute) endangered species

55 An American bridal survey suggested that brides were wiling to spend $3,000 on the perfect dress But not if there is a almost perfect alternative for much cheaper. The average price spent was closer to $500.

56 Incentives can help remove hypothetical bias A Simple Incentive Mechanism: Offer $150 prize to 1/100 respondents. If you win: You receive the outcome of your response (pay the implied price, collect what remains of the $150) For example, if they chose to buy Office 365 with 20GB for at $ then they get $ Office 365. If they chose not to buy, they get $150.

57 A Few Observations on Incentives Data shows that a small chance of being real leads to much higher quality data When the decision is more real, people tend to think harder and make more realistic choices However, these simple mechanisms are hard to use for developmental products or enterprise buys

58 De-Biasing Language Psychologists and economists have shown that reminding people to think about actually spending the money can help remove bias Encourage survey respondents to take question seriously and consider alternatives Helps remove experimenter demand effects"

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60 Factor Levels Megapixels 9.0, 12.0, 15.0 Brand Name SLR Minolta, Kodak, Olympus Yes or No Price $100, $350, $600

61 Brand: Kodak MGB: 12.0 SLR: Yes Price: $ 300 Brand: Olympus MGB: 12.0 SLR: No Price: $ 200 A This is critical for getting $ interpretation! or NONE B

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65 logitmodel<- glm(choice~0 + as.factor(megapixels) + brand + SLR + as.factor(price),data=dataframe,family=binomial())

66 This implies that every $200 increase in price decreases utility by around 0.35 utils. Or, every $1 increase in price decreases utility by

67 People gain 0.13 utils if they have an SLR. This means they should be willing to pay (0.13/ )=$76 extra for an SLR

68 This implies that every megapixel increases utility by around This implies that for each extra megapixel a firm can charge (0.055/ )=$32.

69 The evidence implies that a camera which offers an SLR and 15 Megapixels rather than 12 megapixels and no SLR could cost $ (3 x 32) + $76 = $172 more and have the same market share

70 Reduces focus on price Can calculate EVC values Quick and easy

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72 Need potential customers to take the survey otherwise results are biased

73 Need consumers to understand product attributes well if taking the survey remotely or pre-release.

74 If price is a signal of quality, analysis will be biased

75 Hard to evaluate interrelated features, baseline model assume each feature contributes independently to utility It is important to use interaction terms in the model where appropriate.

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78 β 2 1 slr = yes mp

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81 experiment!

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85 over time over space

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88 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec Price Sales (thousands)

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91 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Price (2013) Sales (2013) Price (2014) Sales (2014)

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