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1 This article was downloaded by:[eth-bibliothek] On: 4 June 28 Access Details: [subscription number ] Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number: Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-4 Mortimer Street, London WT 3JH, UK Applied Economics Letters Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: 'Amenity' or 'eyesore'? Negative willingness to pay for options to replace electricity transmission towers Giles Atkinson a ; Brett Day b ; Susana Mourato c ; Charles Palmer d a Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science,, London, WC2A 2AE, UK b Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE), School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia,, Norfolk, NR4 7TJ, UK c Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Imperial College London, RSM Building,, London SW7 2BP, UK d Zentrum f r Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF), Universit t Bonn,, Online Publication Date: 5 March 24 To cite this Article: Atkinson, Giles, Day, Brett, Mourato, Susana and Palmer, Charles (24) ''Amenity' or 'eyesore'? Negative willingness to pay for options to replace electricity transmission towers', Applied Economics Letters, :4, To link to this article: DOI:.8/ URL: PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Full terms and conditions of use: This article maybe used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, re-distribution, re-selling, loan or sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material.

2 Applied Economics Letters, 24,, Amenity or eyesore? Negative willingness to pay for options to replace electricity transmission towers GILES ATKINSON*, BRETT DAYy, SUSANA MOURATO} and CHARLES PALMERz *Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, UK, ycentre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE), School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norfolk, NR4 7TJ, UK, }Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Imperial College London, RSM Building, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2BP, UK and zzentrum fu r Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF), Universita t Bonn, Walter-Flex-Str. 3, D-533 Bonn A frequent scenario in public decision-making is that of choosing between a number of proposed changes from the status quo. In such a case, stated preference surveys, such as the contingent valuation method, are often undertaken to assess the size of the benefits associated with each proposed change. For certain undesirable options, respondents may prefer the status quo; however, it may not be credible to directly elicit negative willingness to pay or willingness to accept to endure the change. This study, using contingent valuation, outlines an indirect means of measuring negative willingness to pay for the problem of visual disamenity arising from alternative electricity transmission tower designs based on the elicitation of indicators of how inconvenienced respondents would feel if a less preferred option were to replace the status quo; that is, the time and cost respondents were prepared to commit to opposing the change. The results show that taking account of negative willingness to pay matters and this significantly changes value estimates for some of the least liked options. I. INTRODUCTION Policy-makers often are concerned with choosing between a number of proposed changes from the status quo. To help in making such a decision, stated preference survey techniques such as the contingent valuation (CV) method may be employed to gauge the size of the welfare benefits of adopting each one of the proposed changes. In the case reported here, the decision concerns the design of towers used to support (high voltage) overhead transmission lines (OTLs) in England and Wales. The statutory obligation to provide UK households with electricity necessitates the on-going erection of new OTLs. This, in turn, has implications for the visual amenity of landscapes in rural and urban areas typically scrutinized within the UK planning process. One aspect of this process has been a demand from local authorities, environmental and other groups for less visually intrusive designs. Figure illustrates the current tower design (referred to here as the Lattice design) as compared to five proposed alternatives. A CV survey was conducted to assess the size of the visual amenity conferred on local (rural and urban) landscapes by replacing the current towers with those of each alternative design. * Corresponding author. g.atkinson@lse.ac.uk All new designs satisfy engineering and design parameters determined by National Grid plc. Applied Economics Letters ISSN print/issn online # 24 Taylor & Francis Ltd DOI:.8/

3 24 G. Atkinson et al. Lattice (current design) Single Pole with Arms One-Pole Double Pole with Arms V Pole Windmill Tower Height/ Size Comparison Fig.. Current and proposed designs for electricity transmission towers

4 Negative WTP for electricity transmission towers 25 As is typical in such cases, opinion on the new designs was divided; some respondents favoured a change, whilst others indicated a preference for the status quo. For some, a number of the new designs were considered sufficiently unsightly that they felt the landscape would be visually poorer for their installation. In such cases, CV practitioners should allow respondents to express either a welfare gain or welfare loss for any particular change. This is a surprisingly difficult task. In particular, it is almost impossible to devise a payment vehicle that can credibly be used to elicit values for both gains and losses. One highly desirable feature of a CV question is that it is credible (Carson et al., 2). If there was only one new tower design being considered, a credible payment vehicle might be changes in the standing charge 2 of the electricity bill. Respondents preferring the new design can be asked for their willingness to pay (WTP) an increased charge to see the change take place. The increase in standing charge can be explained as contributing to the costly procedure of replacing current towers with those of a new design. Respondents find it is all too plausible that expenditures on infrastructure will be recouped through increased charges. Conversely, respondents preferring the current design can be asked for their willingness to accept (WTA) a reduced standing charge as compensation for the disamenity of viewing towers of the new design. A reduction in the standing charge can be explained as reflecting reductions in the maintenance costs of the more modern design. Whilst, this scenario may seem somewhat less credible, the plausibility of such reductions might be enhanced by invoking the intervention of the electricity regulator (OFGEM) in determining changes in the standing charge. 3 Unfortunately, this credibility is not maintained in a survey that seeks separate values for each of a number of different changes. Here a particular respondent might prefer one change to the status quo whilst dispreferring another. Even the least sceptical of respondents would find implausible a scenario in which preferred changes happened to trigger increases in bills but less preferred changes resulted in reductions in bills. More generally, for many policy interventions entailing the valuation of multiple options for say landscape (or land-use) change from the status quo, it is plausible that similar problems will arise. This study addresses the problem of eliciting gains and losses when multiple changes are being simultaneously valued, using the example of changes in electricity tower designs. Using a different payment vehicle is proposed to value changes regarded as losses from that used to value changes regarded as gains. In particular, negative WTP (rather than WTA) is elicited indirectly by determining which of a number of increasingly arduous tasks a respondent would be prepared to perform in order to avert the replacement of current electricity towers with towers of a new design. Whilst such a payment vehicle has its own limitations, for example in that it is not coercive (offering scope for strategic responses and free-riding behaviour), it is argued that this approach provides a practical mechanism for valuing losses in a multiple valuation CV survey. It is argued that this approach is a useful addition to other contributions which have sought to look at this problem such as Berrens et al. (998), Clinch and Murphy (2) and Lockwood et al. (994) (see also, for a concise review of this literature, Bohara et al., 2). II. ELICITING NEGATIVE WTP The study s in-person CV examination of preferences for new electricity tower designs was carried out in 2 in over 3 locations bordering current OTLs. 4 Around 8 respondents were sampled from four geographical bands ranging from living within 5 m to 5 km from OTLs. Using maps and photographs, respondents were shown the location and appearance of the OTLs in their area. Information was collected on their present attitudes towards and exposure to these specific lines as well as WTP for new designs or to preserve the status quo. 5 Respondents were asked to rank six tower designs including the current Lattice design. Respondents that ranked any new design as being preferable to the current one were asked to express their WTP to see specified towers in their area changed to this new design. The payment vehicle was a one-off increase in the standing charge component of the household s electricity bill, justified to respondents as a contribution to the costs of replacing the towers. WTP was elicited by means of a payment card where respondents were asked to tick the amounts that they would be willing to pay for each new design that they preferred to the current one. Respondents willing to pay less than were subsequently asked whether WTP was zero or a very small amount between and. Hence, 2 The part of the bill which is independent of electricity usage. 3 Indeed, such reductions are not unprecedented. Since the restructuring of the electricity industry in the UK in 99, OFGEM has overseen a 28% reduction in the price of electricity to UK consumers. 4 While, in practice, new tower designs will primarily be relevant to newly constructed OTLs, respondents were asked about the design of existing towers in the area in which they live because it was reasoned that preferences for new OTLs will be affected by a range of disamenities in addition to those affecting visual appearance of landscape. 5 For a more detailed discussion of the survey see Atkinson et al. (23).

5 26 G. Atkinson et al. Table. Translating intended actions into WTP estimates Intended action information about the lower end of the (positive) WTP distribution was also collected. For those people preferring the current design to some or all new tower designs, the procedure was less straightforward. In order to estimate possible welfare losses, respondents were asked to state which of a number of increasingly arduous tasks they would perform to avert the replacement of the current towers with towers of a new design. These tasks are described in the first column in Table and involved signing petitions, writing complaint letters or making donations to protest groups. Each intended action can then be given a monetary dimension by relating it to the associated value of time lost (writing letters, signing petitions) or loss of money (donations). The second column in Table describes the results of imputing WTP values to each of the possible actions to avoid replacing the current design, where the value in money terms of the time, effort and expense involved in writing a letter of complaint is described by c. A respondent who indicated that he/she would not do anything was assumed to be stating indifference, i.e. a zero WTP to retain the current design. A respondent stating that they would sign a petition but not go as far as writing a letter to their Member of Parliament (MP) was assumed to be indicating that they were not indifferent but would not suffer a sufficient welfare loss to invest the time, effort and expense in writing a letter. Hence, their WTP was larger than zero but less than c. A respondent stating they would write a letter but would not pay to a protest group was indicating that their welfare loss lay in the interval between c (inclusive) and c þ (exclusive). Respondents stating they would write a letter and pay to a fighting fund but not pay 3 were indicating that their welfare loss lay in Assumed WTP to retain the current design I wouldn t do anything as I don t really care WTP ¼ I would sign a petition complaining to my MP and < WTP < c local council I would sign a petition and independently write to my c 4 WTP < þ c local council and/or MP and/or electricity company in order to complain. As well as signing a petition and writing letters of þ c 4 WTP < 3 þ c complaint I would be prepared to donate to a group coordinating protest As well as signing a petition and writing letters of WTP 5 3 þ c complaint I would be prepared to donate 3 to a group coordinating protest Note: c is the value in money terms of the time, effort and expense involved in writing a letter of complaint. the interval above or equal to c þ but below c þ 3. For those willing to donate 3, it can be inferred that their maximum WTP is above or equal to c þ 3. Given that c is of an unknown magnitude, the assumption was made that it takes an hour to produce and mail such a letter. Put another way, c is the value the household places on one hour of its time. Following some frequently used assumptions concerning the value of non-labour time (Cesario, 976), c is calculated from the annual after-tax income. Specifically, the value of time is taken as a third of the wage rate, which is approximated as a two-thousandth of the annual after-tax income of the household. III. RESULTS Figure 2 illustrates the distribution of WTP for each new design by estimating the relevant empirical survivor functions. 6 They show the probability of a respondent in the sample having a WTP that is greater than a certain amount. All of the survivor functions clearly show that the majority of respondents were indifferent towards replacing the current design with each of the new designs and that the proportion of people willing to pay some amount of money quickly declines as that amount rises. 7 For some designs such as the Single Pole with Arms or the Double Pole with Arms, most of the non-zero WTP lies on the positive side of the distribution. Conversely, for least liked designs such as the Windmill or the V Pole there is a more even split between WTP amounts on the positive and negative side of the distribution. Table 2 contains the estimated mean (household) WTP for each of the new tower designs (with 95% confidence 6 To calculate the survivor function at a particular value, say x, first count the number of respondents with a value greater than this amount. An obvious estimate of the probability of having a value greater than x is given by dividing this count by the total number of respondents in the sample. Note that, in estimating the survivor functions in Figure 2, the sample data is used to dictate the specific form taken by the function. 7 In all cases, median WTP is zero.

6 Negative WTP for electricity transmission towers 27 'Single Pole with Arms' Design 'One-Pole' Design 'Double Pole with Arms' Design 'V-Pole' Design 'Windmill' Design Willingness to pay Fig. 2. Survivor functions for new tower designs intervals in parentheses). 8 The values in column two refer to all valid responses: they take into account respondents stating positive, zero and negative WTP for each design (a total of 737 people). The Single Pole with Arms design is found to be the most valued, conferring average benefits of 6.6 per household (one-off payment). Closely following are the One Pole and Double Pole with Arms designs with values of 4.86 and 4.67, respectively. As can be inferred from the confidence intervals shown in the table, the values for the three most preferred designs are significantly different from zero. In contrast, the mean values for the V-pole and the Windmill designs are not statistically different from zero. Indeed, for the Windmill design, the mean value is actually negative indicating that, 8 Given the interval nature of payment card data, the means reported here are lower bounds. These can be calculated directly from the survivor functions as the sum of a positive component and a negative component. The positive component is the area below the step function and above zero for positive WTP, the negative component the area above the step function and below one for negative WTP. Confidence intervals are calculated using a nonparametric bootstrap procedure.

7 28 G. Atkinson et al. Table 2. WTP for new tower designs: with and without negative WTP (95% confidence intervals in parentheses) on average, people would lose out if the current towers were replaced by this least favoured design. Finally, columns 2 and 3 in Table 2 offer a comparison of mean WTP taking account of, and ignoring negative WTP respectively. Not surprisingly, ignoring negative WTP in all cases leads to an over-estimate of WTP for the new design. However, the extent of this over-estimate varies considerably as illustrated by the final column in Table 2. The smallest absolute errors are for the Single Pole with Arms, the Double Pole with Arms and the One-Pole designs. For these designs, it is arguable that, in practical terms, the error entailed in ignoring negative WTP is acceptable. For example, for these three designs, the mean values estimated when negative WTP is ignored fall well within the 95% confidence intervals of the mean values estimated from the complete WTP range. For the V-Pole and Windmill designs, however, the error arising from not taking proper account of those who preferred the status quo is far more significant. In the case of the former, ignoring these preferences gives an estimate of mean WTP that is more than four times as great as true mean WTP. For the latter, ignoring those who preferred the status quo entails a change on the sign of the estimated mean WTP amounts. IV. CONCLUSIONS 3 c 4 WTP WTP 4 2 Single pole with arms 6.6 ( ) 7.3 ( ) 3 One pole 4.86 ( ) 6.3 ( ).7 Double pole with arms 4.67 ( ) 5.7 ( ) V pole 5 ( 9.6) 2.5 ( ) 2.6 Windmill (.3 5).85 ( ) 2.25 Negative WTP has been examined, which is a particular problem in a number of environmental changes including changes in visual amenity arising from different designs of electricity transmission towers. In order to elicit negative WTP, indicators were sought of how inconvenienced respondents would feel if the current towers were replaced by a less preferred tower design. That is, the time and expenditure respondents were prepared to commit to opposing the change. This indirect payment vehicle was designed to overcome problems with explicitly asking how much respondents were willing to pay to preserve the status quo or how much they are willing to accept in compensation. The results show that ignoring the existence of welfare losses can result in gross overestimation of the benefits of particular policy options, possibly altering the outcome of a benefit-cost assessment of the preferred course of action. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper draws on a study funded by National Grid Company (NGC) plc. The views expressed in this paper are not necessarily shared by the NGC plc. We are also extremely grateful to David Pearce for valuable advice throughout the study. REFERENCES Error (Absolute difference between means) Atkinson, G., Day, B., Mourato, S. and Palmer, C. (22) The impacts of distance and familiarity on preferences for the replacement of electricity transmission towers, London School of Economics and Political Science. Berrens, R. P., Bohara, A. and Kerkvliet, J. (998) A randomized response for dichotomous choice contingent valuation, Resource and Energy Economics, 9, Bohara, A. K., Kerkvliet, J. and Berrens, R. P. (2) Addressing negative willingness to pay in dichotomous choice contingent valuation, Environmental and Resource Economics, 2, Carson, R. T., Groves, T. and Machina, M. J. (2) Incentive and informational properties of preference questions, University of California, San Diego. Cesario, F. J. (976) Value of time in recreation benefit studies, Land Economics, 52, Clinch, P. J. and Murphy, A. (2) Modelling winners and losers in contingent valuation of public goods: appropriate welfare measures and econometric analysis, Economic Journal,, Lockwood, M., Loomis, J. and DeLacy, T. (994) The relative unimportance of non-market willingness to pay for timber harvesting, Ecological Economics, 9,

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