RELEVANCE TREES AND WEIGHTING MATRICES

Transcription

1 Appendix D RELEVANCE TREES AND WEGHTNG MATRCES A. NTRODUCTON At the beginning of this assessment there was a general requirement for a detailed analysis of the purposes, policies, and issues of stockpiling. These maybe put in the four categories of stockpiling policies, stockpiling procedures, stockpiling alternatives, and stockpiling impacts. The methodology chosen for analysis is the construction of relevance trees. These are described in more detail later in this discussion. Basically, the relevance trees serve as a detailed method for organizing the assessment. The relevance trees categorize policy, criteria, exogenous factors triggering stockpiling actions and issues and impacts pertaining thereto. The relevance trees are particularly useful in the construction of the scenarios and technology forecast. By breaking the entire stockpiling subjects down into their constituent building blocks, the important areas may be recognized and then incorporated in the scenarios and technology forecasts. The effort of actually constructing the stockpiling relevance trees is a very educational one, requiring a forced education of the authors which directly leads to a better understanding and more constructive assessment in all of the later tasks. The relevance trees are particularly useful in showing the construction of the stockpiling systems basic blocks which consist of: criteria for stockpiling, price of materials, policies, procedures, and materials. All of these areas are treated in great detail in the relevance trees. n chapter V the impacts on the economic, social and political areas due to stockpiling critical material are examined and tested. The impacts and interest groups who are affected and their various relationships are shown in the relevance trees here. The interest groups are shown as Level of the first three relevance trees. From the detailed relevance trees structure, the important interest groups may be selected for examination in the impact areas. Finally, the relevance trees focus in great detail on stockpiling policies, procedures, issues, and activities, and serve as a guide for coordinating the candidate stockpiling policies and the impacts in order to determine the overall policy implementation for stockpiling key materials. Hence, it is seen that the construction of the relevance trees in great detail facilitates doing the other tasks, outlining the entire project in detail, and shows 9

2 APPENDX D the general relationship of the policies, issues, and impact areas in the overall stockpiling policies project. The following is a more detailed discussion of the stockpiling relevance trees themselves and details the method of construction and organization of them. The top levels of the relevance tree for all of the key materials are presented here. However, only the lower levels for the specific key material of iron/iron ore is presented in this assessment. The relevance trees for the other metals and nonmetallic minerals will be essentially the same. For fibers and fuels, some of the lower levels in the relevance trees will be necessarily different. The relevance trees show a hierarchical structure for stockpiling policies. Each of these relevance trees has several levels. Each level contains a disaggregation of the information contained in the next higher level. The logic linking the levels is revealed by a set of statements (displayed on the tree at the left) defining the content of each level. For each material, four relevance trees are developed: () a stockpiling policy for dealing with reasons for stockpiling; () a stockpiling procedure tree concerned with methods of stockpiling; () a stockpiling activities tree identifying ancillary programs which may be associated with stockpiling; and () a stockpiling impacts tree which shows where and how the impacts of stockpiling will be felt. The lowest level of each tree identifies those interest groups which are most closely affected or which impact on stockpiling policies. The same groups may appear at several positions on level of a given tree as well as on level of the other trees. Where this occurs, it indicates the interplay of policies of the three trees. B. RELEVANCE TREES The logic of the individual relevance trees is outlined below:. The Stockpiling Policy Tree begins with the question, Why stockpile a particular material? (Level ). Level shows two general reasons for initiating stockpiling: to maintain a supply in case of cutoffs from primary sources, and to provide protection against economic pressures, Level identifies the material resource problem areas as being domestic and foreign, The problems which may be alleviated by stockpiling are detailed on Level. The lowest level (Level ) shows those interest groups which can be expected to impact on the specific problems. The Stockpiling Procedure Tree deals with the question, How can a particular material be stockpiled? (Level ). Level shows the two areas of concern: domestic and foreign. On Level, general methods of stockpiling are identified. Specific storage procedures are shown on Level. Level (the lowest level) identifies the interest groups that may be affected by the stockpiling procedures. The Alternates to Stockpiling Tree derives from the question, What activities may stockpiling a particular material stimulate (Level )? The general policies which may be initiated as a result of stockpiling are given on 96

3 .. Level. Level specifies the policies sufficiently so that programs derived from these policies can be identified on Level. The lowest level (Level ) shows those interest groups which would be directly affected by these programs,. The stockpiling impact tree begins, at Level, asking where, throughout the world, the impact might be felt. The major divisions recognized are: the United States, other countries which import the material, countries which export the material, countries which could export the material or substitutes, and countries which have secondary dependence on the material APPENDX D (e.g., countries which import products manufactured from the material). At Level, the relevance tree centers on the question, How might the impact be felt? Here, the divisions are social, economic, political, legal, and other, The domain of the impact is next addressed at Level. The impacts can be felt totally internally to the country, or in relations between the country and others. Level consists of a further subdivision of the domain, and Level addresses the areas of the impacts themselves (e.g., institutional viability, political stability between nations, and trade alliances). n all, this relevance tree of impacts produced approximately impact areas, Stockpiling Policy Tree. Materials of Concern Why Stockpile Materials n Reason for nitiating Stockpiling Policy. To Cushion Against nterruption in Supply To Assure Supply at a Given Cost.. Nature of Problem Which Generates Need For Stockpiling Policy 97

4 APPENDX D. / Reason for nitiating Stockpiling Policy To Cushion Against nterruption in Supply. Nature of Problem Which Generates Need For Stockpiling Policy Domestic nterruption. More Specific Problem Definition nterest Groups Affecting Specific Problem Areas Exhaustion of Lack of Materials at Monopolistic Lack of Adequate Acceptable Practices Available Labor Producing Economic Levels Capacity -.,. Geological Explorers Environmentalists Land Owners (Public, Private) Resource nvestors Nature of Problem Which Generates Need For Stockpiling Policy To Cushion Against nterruption in Supply Reason for nitiating Stockpiling Policy Foreign nterruption. More Specific Problem Definition Lack of Avail- Exhaustion of Socio/Economic/ ability of Labor Political Materials at Cartel and/or Materials Acceptable Actions Disruption Within in Producer Producer Economic Levels Countries Countries f nterest Groups Affecting Specific Problem Areas 98

5 APPENDX D. Reason for nitiating Stockpiling Policy To Assure Supply at a Given Cost u Nature of Problem Which Generates Need For Stockpiling Policy + Domestic ssues. More Specific Problem Definition L Exhaustion of Materials at Monopolistic Acceptable Practices Economic Levels ncreasing Labor and Production costs ncreasing Capital Equipment costs.. nterest Groups Affecting Specific Problem - Areas Geological Explorers Producers t Environmentalists Transporters - Land owners Processors (Public, Private) k Warehouses Resource nvestors Material Suppliers t Processors Warehouses Material Suppliers t Financiers Environmentalists. Reason for nitiating Stockpiling Policy To Assure Supply at a Given Cost Nature of Problem Which Generates Need For Stockpiling policy? Foreign ssues L m More Specific Problem Definition nterest Groups Affecting Specific Problem Areas. ~ m Exhaustion of Materials at Acceptable Economic Levels. Geological Regions Environmentalists Land Owners (Public, Private) ~Resource nvestors. Cartel Actions. -National Government -National Private Corporations (Vertically/ Horizontally ntegrated) -Multi-National Corporations ncreasing Labor and Production Costs in Producer Countries. Unions Producers Transporters Processors F Warehouses ~ Material Suppliers SOCO /Economic/ Political Disruption Within Producer Countries. National Government Expropriation, Taxation, etc.) t Dissident Groups (Revolutionaries, Paramilitary, Political Organizations, etc. )

6 APPENDX D Stockpiling Procedure Tree. Material of Concern How Can Materials Be Stockpiled? Areas of Concern.. Domestic Foreign Stockpiling Policies. H. a. Stockpile n Proven Reserves #. Stockpile as Raw Ore i. b, m. t Stockpile as Scrap

7 APPENDX D. Area of Concern Domestic, Stockpiling Policies L. More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies Leases of Purchases of Purchases of Land and Land and Mineral Rights Mineral Rights Mineral Rights Only + [... -Geological Explorers -Geological Explorers - Resource nvestors - Resource nvestors -Resource nvestors -Land Owners (Public, A Land Owners (Pubtic, ~ Land Owners (Public, Private, etc.) Private, etc.] Private, etc.) Area of Concern. Domestic ) % Stockpiling Policies. Stockpile as Raw Ore * J More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies. Open Storage, Open Storage, Protected Protected Close to Close to Storage, Close Storage, Close Supply Areas Consumers to Supply Areas to Consumers m % &

8 APPENDX D. / Domestic Stockpiling Policies. Stockpile as Processed Ore... h Open Storage. Close to Consumers. =Warehouses (Private) -Processors ---Consumers Government. Warehouses (Private) Processors Consumers kgovernment. / Area of Concern +,. Domestic. Stockpiling Policies Stockpile as Product More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies. nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies. Store in Central Store in Store in Store in General Locations in Selected Shapes Selected Shapes Geometric Bulk General Geometric in Central Close to Forms Close to Bulk Forms Locations Consumers Consumers

9 APPENDX D $ Area of Concern Domestic u. Stockpiling Policies Stockpile as Scrap. More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies High-Grade High-Grade Low-Grade Low-Grade Scrap, Near Scrap, Centrally Scrap, Near Scrap, Centrally Processors Located Processors Located..,. Scrap Collector; Scrap Collectors Scrap Collectors Scrap Collectors Processors Processors -Processors Processors Sources of Scrap Sources of Scrap -Sources of Scrap Sources of Scrap Warehouses (Private) -Warehouses (Private) -Warehouses (Private) -Warehouses (Private) Government *Government Government Government *. Area of Concern Foreign Stockpiling Policies F. Stockpile in Proven Reserves More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies

10 APPENDX D Area of Concern.. ST Stockpiling Policies. Stockpile as Raw Ore { More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies. Open Storage, Close to Ports Open Storage, Protected Protected Close to Storage, Close Storage, Close Supply Areas to Ports to Supply Areas nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies..... k Producers t Producers Producers Producers Warehouses Warehouses t Warehouses t Warehouses. Foreign. Stockpiling Policies m Stockpile as Processed Ore More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies + Open Storage, Close to Ports. nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies

11 APPENDX D. Area of Concern Foreign. 9 Stockpiling Policies Stockpile as Product More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies. 9 Store in General Geometric Bulk Forms. nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies. Processors Warehouses. / Area of Concern Foreign. Stockpiling Policies Stockpile as Scrap. More Specific Definition of Stockpiling Policies High-Grade Scrap Low-Grade Scrap nterest Groups Affected by Stockpiling Policies. EScrap Collectors Processors Sources of Scrap Warehouses. -Scrap Collectors Processors Sources of Scrap -Warehouses

12 APPENDX D Alternatives to Stockpiling Tree, Material of Concern m. General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling More Specific Policies nfluence Consumption.. Encourage Recycling. mprove Methods for Economical Reclamation n. Provide for Substitutes. R&D nto Other Materials Having Similar Structural Properties. ncrease Discovery Rates of Economical Resources. mproved Detection Methods. E nstitute Conservation Pollcles n nstitute Conservation Policies R&D nto Materials Having Similar Metallurgical Properties m Encourage Exploration. mprove Usefulness of Lower-Grade Resources 6

13 APPENDX General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling. nfluence Consumption /. More Specific Policies Limit Production.. Programs Leading From Policies ndustrial Quotas Consumer Rationing Taxation on Ore/Product nterest Groups Directly Affected bv Policies.. -Government -Government -Consumers -Consumers -Producers -Producers -Processors -Processors. Government Consumers Producers Processors General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling. nfluence Consumption /. More Specific Policies nstitute Conservation Policies Programs Leading From Policies. R&D for More Effective Usage per Unit Weight Tax Benefits For Long-Term Depreciation nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies.. -Government Government -Consumers Consumers -Processors Processors -Producers Producers 7

14 APPENDX D General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling. Encourage Recycling. More Specific Policies L mprove Methods For Economical Reclamation J Programs Leading From Policies nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies. i L Provide ncentives For Gatherinq - Scrap, Government Scrap Collectors Scrap Processors R&D nto Techniques for Separating Alloy Components. Government Scrap Collectors Scrap Processors University Labs & Research Labs General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling Encourage Recycling More Specific Policies nstitute Conservation Policies Programs Leading From Policies nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies.. Refundable Tax On Material Offered as Scrap.. Government Consumers Producers Processors Government Consumers Producers Processors 8

15 APPENDX D General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling. Provide Substitutes More Specific Policies. z R&D nto Other Materials Having Similar Structural Properties m. Programs Leading From Policies Study Other Study Metals Plastics.. nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies Government Government Universities Universities Private R&D Groups Private R&D Groups Consumers Consumers General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling Provide Substitutes More Specific Policies. R&D nto Materials Having Similar Metallurgical Properties. Programs Leading From Policies Study Other Metals Study Plastics } (. * nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies Government Government Universities Universities Private R&D Groups Private R&D Groups Consumers Consumers? 9

16 APPENDX D General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiinq. ncrease Discovery Rates of Economical Resources A More Specific Policies. mproved Detection Methods Programs Leading From Policies nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies ~. Develop ndirect Techniques (Geological Mapping, Geophysical and Geochemical Methods). Government Universities Producers Private R&D Groups Develop ndirect Techniques (Sampling Technologies). Government Universities Producers Private R&D Groups General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling - ncrease Discovery Rates of Economical Resources 9. More Specific Policies. Programs Leading From Policies nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies. Provide Bonuses for Location of dentified Resources Require by Law That Percentage of Depletion Allowance Be Put nto Exploration A Require Percentage of Cash Flow Be Put nto Exploration... Government Government Government Producers Producers Producers Resource nvestors Resource nvestors Resource nvestors

17 APPENDX D General Policies Stimulated by Stockpiling ncrease Discovery Rates of Economical Resources More Specific Policies mprove Usefulness of Lower-Grade Resources Programs Leading From Policies. R&D into Methods of Ore Extraction R&D into Ocean Resources nterest Groups Directly Affected by Policies.. Government Government Universities Universities Producers Producers Private R&D Groups Private R&D Groups

18 APPENDX D D- Stockpiling mpacts Tree How Might the mpact Be Felt?. Social Economic Political Legal Other Social mpacts t What is the Domain of the lmpact? nternal Effects Effects nvolving the on the Country Country and Others What is a Further Subdivision of the Domain? What are the mpact Areas? ndividual. Societal Structural Health Perceptions nstitutional About U.S. Change Nutrition Perceptions Laws and Range of Choice About Self Regulations Welfare and Demographic Economically nternal Regressive Effects Migrations Mobility Services Housing Domestic Education Environment Leisure Technological Directions Values Value Structure and Expectations nternational Global Environment Migration Value Structure and Expectations of Others Travel

19 APPENDX D Economic mpacts m What is the Domain of the mpact? nternal Effects on the Country Effects nvolving the Country and Others What is a Further Subdivision of the Domain? Macroeconomic Structural Monetary Structural What are the mpact Areas? Economic Output ncome Liquidity Employment Currency Value Wealth (Value of Resources) Capital nvestment Taxation Availability and Price of Commodities, Products, and Services ndustrial nfrastructure Relative Abundance of Materials Distribution Mechanism (Rationing or Allocations) Development of Marginal Resources or Substitutes nternal Business Restriction Balance of Trade Price of Exports and Competitiveness on World Market Relative Value of Currency Cost of mports Trade Patterns Multinational Business Restrictions Development of Resources by Others Economic Aspirations of Others Cost of Living National Expenditures Political mpacts m - What is the Domain of the impact? b nternal Effects on the Country Effects nvolving the Country and Others What is a Further Subdivision of the Domain? What are the mpact Areas? k e ) Public at Large Domestic Political/Economic Political/Cultural Political/ Political/ nstitutions nstitutional Military Levels of Trade Alliances Cultural Alliances Satisfaction Regulatory and Agreements and Agreements U.N. Effects Military (With Government, Structure (e.g., GATT) and Other Alliances and etc.) nstitutional Agreements nstitutional Buyers or Sellers Arrangements nternal Political Viability Consortia Stability Laws and Regulations Aspirations of Other Potential Consortia Members Aspirations of Consortia in Other Materials Perceptions About U.S. ntent Political Stability Among Nations Political Aspirations of Others National Boundaries Political Pressure to Affect Third Part

20 APPENDX D m What is the Domain of the mpact? nternal Effects on the Country Legislative Administrative Fiscal What is a Further Delegation of Publication of Funding Tax Subdivision Authority Regulations ncentives of the Domain? Standards Enforcement of Orders Authority for Economic Environmental Stockpiling mpact Statements Appeals; Procedure Power to Requisition and Condemn Export Controls Monitoring of Transactions by the Department of Justice Reporting Requirements Effects nvolving the Country and Others h Effects on Business Antitrust Private Trade Agreements Tax Arrangements Effects on nternational Agreements Trade Agreements U.N. Organizations Other Aid Organizations Emergency Sharing Agreements C. MPACTS EVALUATON MATRCES As discussed in the chapter describing methodology (chap. ), the importance of the various impacts from the lower level of the impacts tree were weighted for each candidate stockpiling policy. These weighting matrices were evaluated according to the weights given on each table. These matrices are as follows:

21 APPENDx D -g E o co l-l K n

22 APPENDX D m m m m m m m N ml N&j A.- m m c 6

23 m m m o e m N N m N: ti m m m

24 APPENDX D Fww) ~U/iXXlUJ)AOf) S+n m m N mm N m 8

25 APPENDX D sa~j!szaayn sdnw~ awi S8XU!W S*n N m N m N N A N U7 6 9

26 APPENDX D Matrix l Relevance of economic impacts to various s, sheet MPACT AREAS WEGHT Economic Output ncome Taxation 9 Liquidity Employment Currency Value Wealth (Value of Resources) Capital nvestment Availability and Price of Commodities Cost of Living Selected ndustrial Output Selected ndustrial Profit Selected ndustrial Liquidity Selected ndustrial Employment Selected ndustrial Relative Prices Selected ndustrial Capital Stock ndustrial nfrastructure Relative Abundance of Materials Distribution Mechanisms Development of Marginal Resources Domestic Business Restrictions Balance of Trade Price of Exports Relative Value of Currency Cost of mports 6 Trade Patterns 7 Multinational Business Restrictions 8 Development of Resources by Others 9 Economic Aspirations of Others RELEVANCE KEY = Great Relevance = Moderate Relevance l= Little Relevance =No Relevance WEGHT KEY = Extremely important impact area = mportant mpact Area l=of Little mportance =NO mportance

27 APPENDX D Matrix l Relevance of social impacts to various S, sheet MPACT AREAS s WEGHT Health Nutrition Range of Choice o Welfare and Economically Regressive mpacts Mobility Housing 6 Education 7 Leisure 8 Values-Domestic 9 Perceptions About U.S. Perception About Self nternal Migrations Services Domestic Environment Technological Directions Value Structure 6 nstitutional Change 7 Laws and Regulations 8 Global Environment 9 Migration Values and Expectations Travel RELEVANCE KEY = Great Relevance = Moderate Relevance l= Little Relevance =N Relevance WEGHT KEY = Extremely mportant mpact Area = mportant mpact Area l=of Little mportance =NO mportance

28 APPENDX D Matrix Relevance of political impacts to various S sheet MPACT AREAS WEGHT 6 7 Trade Alliances and Agreements Levels of Satisfaction with Government nternal Political Stability Laws and Regulations Regulatory Structure nstitutional Viability Buyers and Sellers Consortia Aspirations of Other Potential Consortia Members Aspirations of Consortia in Other Materials Perception About U.S. ntent Cultural Alliances and Agreements U.N. Effects mpacts on Other nternational nstitutions Military ments Political tions Alliances and Agree- Stability Between Na- Political Aspirations of Others 68 National Boundaries 6 Political Pressures on Third Parties RELEVANCE KEY = Great Relevance = Moderate Relevance l= Little Relevance =NoRelevance WEGHT KEY = Extremely mportant mpact Area = mportant mpact Area l=of Little mportance =No importance