Seasonal Tourism Demand Models from USA to Greece

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Seasonal Tourism Demand Models from USA to Greece"

Transcription

1 Seasonal Tourism Demand Models from USA to Greece Nikolaos Dritsakis Associate Professor Department of Applied Informatics Katerina Gialetaki Assistant Professor Department of Tourist Administration University of Macedonia Technological Educational Institute of Amfissas Abstract Tourists from USA, which is Greece's third major market after European Union and Japan, represent 6% of international tourist arrivals towards Greece in The average annual growth rate of tourist arrivals from USA was 20% for the period Despite the political, economic and military crises, which were dominated over the examined period, tourist arrivals to Greece from USA have continued to grow slowly. Therefore, it is essential to consider the economic factors influencing this tourism demand. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the elasticities among origin country s income, consumer prices index of both countries and transportation cost of inbound tourism from USA to Greece, exchange rate, and prices of goods and services of a competitive country using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data. Given Turkey's proximity to Greece, it is also useful to determine if Greece and Turkey are substitute or complementary destinations using tourism demand models. In addition, vector error correction models (VECM) are examined in order to illustrate the seasonal effect of tourism demand from USA towards Greece. Keywords: seasonal tourism demand, cointegration analysis, vector error correction model

2 1. Introduction Most econometric analyses of tourism demand have used single-equations in linear or log-linear (logarithmic) specifications. Generally, there is no theoretical basis for choosing between linear and log-linear, or other regression models of tourism demand, which seem to determine and justify their specifications. Nevertheless, there has been a strong preference in the tourism demand literature for the log-linear models because of the ease in the interpretation of the coefficients of the estimated elasticities. However, it is undeniable that the basic explanatory variables, which affect tourism demand in the existing literature, are the origin country s income, the tourism prices of destination country and the transportation cost. In these studies, the origin country s income is positively related to tourism demand and have a negative influence in tourism prices and transportation cost (Dritsakis and Athanasiadis 2000). As far as we know, few empirical studies have used quarterly data for tourism demand (Lim and McAleer 2003) attempting to obtain a large number of observations. The number of data that have been used in previous studies was annual and ranged from 40 to 90 observations (Di Matteo and Di Matteo 1993, Morris et al. 1995, Kulendram 1996, Seddighi and Shearing 1997, Lim and McAleer 2000, 2001, Dritsakis 2004), thereby making the calculation of meaningful and precise parameter estimates difficult. The use of quarterly data has a specific importance in tourism demand problem analysis, because is related to the seasonality, a basic characteristic for the tourism demand analysis. The purpose of this paper is to measure the influences of some economic factors of tourism demand from USA to Greece based on alternative models (Lim and McAleer 2003). The data that we use are quarterly, and as a result the seasonality is 2

3 being taken into account as necessary evidence in precise estimation of tourism demand. In the empirical analysis of this paper we used quarterly data for the period 1960:I-2000:IV for all variables. The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 describes the data and the specification of the model, which are used for tourism demand. Section 3 employs with the unit root tests and investigates the stationarity of the examined data. The cointegration analysis between the examined variables is used in Section 4. Section 5 discusses error correction models (VECM) for journeys to Greece from U.S.A. Final, section 6 provides the conclusions of this paper. 2. Data and specification of the model Following the studies of (Witt and Martin 1987, Witt and Witt 1992, Morris et al 1995, Lim and McAleer 2003) we assume that a single-equation tourism demand for international tourism can be written as: AR t = f (Y t, TC t, P t ) (1) where: AR t is tourism demand at time t. Y t is the origin country s income of tourists at time t. TC t, is the trasportation cost from the origin country to destination country at time t. P t is the tourist prices of goods and services, or the relative price of the competitive destination country at time t. 3

4 Equation (1) is frequently expressed in logarithms in order to capture the multiplicative time series effects. These logarithms are denoted with letter L preceding each variable name. ln AR t = α + β ln Y t + γ ln TC t + δ ln P t + u t (2) where α, β, γ, and δ are elasticities and u t is the independent error term Alternatively equation (2) can be written as lnar t = α + βlny t + γln{τr1 t or TR2 t }+ δln{ IRP t, ER t or RER t }+ ε ln{cp1 t or CP2 t }+ ζ lnar t-1 + u t (3) In the above model (3) the aggregate tourism arrivals from USA to Greece represent the international tourism demand (AR). The real GDP per capita of USA at 1990 prices is used as a proxy for tourist income (Υ). The transportation cost is represented by two variables. The first variable (TR1) is referred to the cost of economy class airfare price from the origin country USA to Athens; the second variable (TR2) is referred to the currency of USA, which is used as a proxy for the transportation cost. The ratio of consumer price index of the destination country (numerator) to the consumer prices index of the origin country (denominator) is used as a proxy for the relative price and is symbolized as (IRP). 4

5 The nominal exchange rate (ER) has also been used to represent the tourism prices and is equal to the ratio of the currency of USA to the currency of Greece, namely the dollar to drachma ratio. The real exchange rate (RER) measures the effective prices of goods and services in destination country, when the consumer prices index is adjusted between the exchange rates differences in currencies of origin and destination countries. Nominal exchange rates of goods and services of the competitive destination country (Turkey) are symbolized with the variable CP1 and represent the ratio of consumer price index of destination country which is examined (Greece), to the consumer price index of the competitive one (Turkey). Real prices of goods and services of the competitive destination country (Turkey) are symbolized with the variable CP2 and represent the ratio of consumer price index of destination country, which is examined (Greece), to the consumer price index of the competitive one (Turkey), as well as the ratio 1/ER, namely the ratio of the exchange rate. The lagged dependent variable (AR t-1 ), namely the former prices of tourist arrivals, are included to a dynamic study of tourism. This means that if tourists are satisfied from their stay in the destination country the first year, they will aim to visit the same country next year. Finally, u t is referred to the independent and distributed error correction term with zero mean and constant variance. where : α, β, γ, δ, ε, and ζ are the parameters to be estimated. β>0, γ<0, δ<0, ε>0 (for a competitive country), ε<0 (for a complementary country) 0<ζ<1 are the basic restrictions on parameters. 5

6 The databases are the Greek National Tourism Organization, World Tourism Organization, State Institute of Statistics Turkey (SIS), Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, International Financial Statistics, World Bank, Bank of Greece, and the database of DataStream. 3. Unit root test The cointegration test among variables that are used in the model (3) requires previously the test for the existence of unit root for each variable, using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) (1979) test on the following regression: k X t = δ 0 + δ 1 t + δ 2 X t-1 + α Χ + i t i ut (4) i= 1 The ADF regression tests for the existence of unit root of Χ t, namely in the logarithm of all model variables at time t (quarterly series). The variable Χ t-i expresses the first differences with k lags and final u t is the variable that adjusts the errors of autocorrelation. The coefficients δ 0, δ 1, δ 2, and α i are being estimated. The null and the alternative hypothesis for the existence of unit root in variable X t is: Η ο : δ 2 = 0 Η ε : δ 2 < 0 The time trend is included in the above regression if the results of ADF regression suggest that it is statistically significant. If time trend is not included in the examined variables, then the regression equation will reduce the power of the test. A 6

7 sufficient number of lagged first differences are included to remove any serial correlation in the residuals. In order to determine k, an initial lag length of 4 is selected and the fourth lag is tested for significance using the standard asymptotic t-ratio. If the fourth lag is insignificant, the lag length is reduced successively until a significant lag length is obtained. If no lagged first differences are used, the ADF test is reduced to the DF test. Eviews 3 (1997) software package, which is used to conduct the ADF tests, reports the simulated critical values. The results of these tests appear in Table 1. The minimal values of Akaike (AIC) 1 (1973) and Schwartz (SC) 2 (1978) statistics have provided the better structure of ADF equations as well as the relative numbers of time lags, under the indication Lag, while for the residuals autocorrelation test Breusch- Godfrey (BG) LM 3 test has been used. Since t-distribution can t be used as critical for prices of δ 2 coefficient, critical values are obtained from Fuller (1976) and Mackinnon (1990). In this paper the critical values tabulated by Mackinnon are used. Insert Table 1 The results of table 1 suggest that the existence of unit root can t be rejected at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels of significance in variables levels. Therefore, no time series appear to be stationary in variables levels. However, when time series are transformed into their first differences, they become stationary and consequently the related variables can be characterized as integrated of order one, I(1). Thus, for all variables in their first differences, the B-G test shows that there is no correlation in the disturbance errors. 1 Akaike s information criterion (AIC) is calculated from: AIC=(2k/T)+log(RSS/T), where k is the number of regressors, T is the number of total observations and RSS is the sum of squared residuals. 2 The Schwartz criterion (SC) is an alternative to the AIC with basically the same interpretation. 3 The BG-statistic is the Lagrange multiplier test for kth order residual autocorrelation Godfrey (1978). 7

8 4. Cointegration and Johansen s test If time series (variables) are non-stationary in their levels, they can be integrated with integration of order one, when their first differences are stationary. These variables may also be cointegrated as well, if there are one or more linear combinations among the variables that are stationary. If these variables are being cointegrated, then there is a constant long-run linear relationship among them. Since it has been determined that the variables under examination are integrated of order 1, then the cointegration test is performed. The testing hypothesis is the null of non-cointegration against the alternative that is the existence of cointegration using the Johansen (1988) maximum likelihood procedure, Johansen and Juselious (1990, 1992). An autoregressive coefficient is used for the modelling of each variable (that is regarded as endogenous) as a function of all lagged endogenous variables of the model. Given the fact that in order to apply the Johansen technique a sufficient number of time lags is required, we have followed the relative procedure, which is based on the calculation LR (Likelihood Ratio) test statistic (Sims 1980). Then we determine the cointegration vector of models with the precondition that table 6 has a rank r < n (n=5). This procedure is related to the estimation of eigenvalues, which are: λ ) = λ ) = λ ) = λ ) = λ ) = Insert Table 2 From the cointegrated equations of table 2 (equation 3) only one equation has statistically significant coefficients and the expected signs, which means that there is a long run relationship between tourism demand, real income, transportation cost, the 8

9 relative value of consumer price index of both countries and the nominal prices of goods and services of the competitive country (Turkey). The cointegrated regression of the long-run demand for international travels from USA to Greece is presented in the following relationship: LAR = LY LTR LIRP LCP1 (5) (1.56) (3.98) (-1.89) (-2.13) (-1.99) The coefficients estimations in equilibrium relationships, which are basically the long run estimated elasticities relatively to tourism demand from USA to Greece suggest that the real income, the transportation cost and the nominal prices of goods and services of Turkey are elastic, while the relative price of consumer price index of both countries is inelastic. 5. Error correction models of traveling to Greece from U.S.A If e is the cointegrating residuals from equation (5), these residuals should be included as an error correction term in tourism demand VAR model, where e can be interpreted as the extent to which the system is out of equilibrium. The cointegrating residuals above are: e = constant LY LTR LIRP LCP1 (6) The cointegrating residuals e are an I(0) process, as indicated by the ADF unit root test. This suggests that the variables (LY, LTR1, LIRP, LCP1) are cointegrated with tourist arrivals from U.S.A to Greece. 9

10 In order to estimate a dynamic tourism demand vector error correction model (VECM) using OLS, the cointegrating vector should be included (Lim and McAleer 2001). Hence, quarterly changes in tourist arrivals can be expressed as: LAR t =α 0 + Γ1 LAR t-i + Γ2 LY t-i + Γ3 LTR1 t-i + Γ4 LIRP t-i + Γ5 LCP1 t-ι +δe t-1 + ξd t + V t (7) where D t denotes the centred seasonal dummy variables. These dummy variables are included in the VECM specification since deterministic seasonality is an important percentage of the variations in the growth of tourist arrivals to Greece from USA (Lim and McAleer 2000). The use of centred seasonal dummy variables is recommended by Johansen (1995), which affects only the mean but not the trend in the tourist arrivals. Table 3 reports the VECM estimates. The VECM specification forces the long-run behavior of the endogenous variables to converge to their cointegrated relationship, while accommodates short-run dynamics. The dynamic specification of the model suggests deleting the insignificant variables until a parsimonious representation is obtained. Changes in tourist arrivals from U.S.A appear to react in the short-run to its own one period lag, changes in real income lagged two periods, changes in the relative price of consumer price index of both countries, changes in nominal prices of goods and services of competitive country to its own one period lag and the dummy variables of second and third quarter. Final, the error correction term is negative and appears to be statistically significant. 10

11 Insert Table 3 A subset of the variables is tested for statistical significance to examine if they can be deleted from the model. The associated test statistics reported include the F- statistic and the log-likelihood ratio statistic. Each of the insignificant variables is deleted sequentially from the general dynamic model, while the error correction term is retained. By deleting the insignificant regressors, the following model is obtained from table 4 (with absolute t-ratio in parentheses): Insert Table 4 The final VECM of quarterly changes in tourist arrivals from USA includes the error correction model estimated by cointegrated regression a change with two lags in real income, a change with one lag in relative price of consumer prices index of both countries and a change with one lag in nominal prices of goods and services of the competitive country. The estimated coefficient of the error correction term, namely δˆ (see equation 7) measure the speed of adjustment to restore equilibrium in the dynamic model. 6. Conclusions In this paper a dynamic linear logarithmic model of tourist demand from USA to Greece is used. The empirical results of this research suggested that the real tourists income and also the relative prices of consumer price index of both countries have an important effect on tourism demand of USA to Greece. The negative variable estimation in competitive prices of Turkey is interesting in the examined model. In other words, tourists coming from USA regard this country as a complementary destination country, a fact which political leaders of both countries should exploit not only for their economic growth but also for peace dominance in the whole Aegean area. 11

12 Even though it is well known empirically that many macroeconomic time series are nonstationary, nonetheless most published empirical tourism research has estimated static models in logarithmic levels using ordinary least squares. This practice gives rise to invalid inferences long-run relationships among of variables. Cointegration techniques permit the estimation and testing of long-run equilibrium relationships, as suggested by economic theory. Vector error correction model (VECM) provide a way of combining both the dynamics of the short-run (changes) and long-run (levels) adjustment processes simultaneously. The empirical results suggest that international tourism demand from USA to Greece is elastic in relation to real income, transportation cost and nominal prices of goods and services of Turkey and inelastic in relation to relative consumer price index of both countries in accordance with cointegration model, which represents the longrun equilibrium relationship of tourism demand. This paper is also referred to an empirical subject including tourism demand models with non-stationary data. It is clear as we can discriminate among spurious cointegrated regressions that the single equation models present mistaken results suggesting that there is a same relationship among tourism arrivals and real income and tourist prices. The cointegration provides an avoidance method of these spurious results (see Kulendram 1996, Morley 2000, Song and Witt 2000 and Dritsakis and Gialitaki 2001). However, it should be mentioned that the number of available observations for the empirical tourism demand model reduces the reliability of results even more when the sample size is small. 12

13 Reference AKAIKE, HIROTUGU (1973): Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle, In: Petrov, B. and Csaki, F. (eds) 2 nd International Symposium on Information Theory. Budapest: Akademiai Kiado. DICKEY, DAVID and WAYNE, FULLER (1979). Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, DI MATTEO, LIVIO and ROSANNA, DI MATTEO (1993). The determinants of expenditures by Canadian visitors to the United States. Journal of Travel Research 31, DRITSAKIS, NIKOLAOS and SPYROS. ATHANASIADIS (2000). An Econometric Model of Tourist Demand: The case of Greece. Journal of hospitality & leisure marketing, 2, DRITSAKIS, NIKOLAOS and KATERINA, GIALITAKI (2001). The tourist demand in the area of Epirus through cointegration analysis International Center for Research and Studies in Tourism 8, DRITSAKIS, NIKOLAOS (2004). Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece. Tourism Management 25(1), EVIEWS 3.0 (1997). Quantitative micro software, Irvine: California. 13

14 FULLER, WAYNE (1976). Introduction to statistical time series, Wiley, New York. GODFREY, LESLIE. (1978). Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models when the regressors include lagged dependent variables. Econometrica, 46, JOHANSEN, SOREN (1995). Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford JOHANSEN, SOREN (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, JOHANSEN, SOREN and KATARINA, JUSELIOUS (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for the money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, JOHANSEN, SOREN and KATARINA, JUSELIUS (1992). Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis at the purchasing power parity and the uncovered interest parity for the UK, Journal of Econometrics, 53, KULENDRAN, NADARAJAMUTHALI (1996). Modelling quarterly tourist flows to Australia using cointegration analysis. Tourism Economics 2(3), LIM, CHRISTINE and MICHAEL, MCALEER (2000). A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia. Applied Economics 32,

15 LIM, CHRISTINE and MICHAEL, MCALEER (2001). Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia. Applied Economics 33, LIM, CHRISTINE and MICHAEL, MCALEER (2003). Modelling international travel demand from Singapore to Australia. Anatolia An International Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Research 14(1), MACKINNON, JAMES (1990). Critical values for cointegration tests, Discussion Paper, , San Diego, CA. MORLEY, CLIVE (2000). Demand modelling methodologies: Integration and Other Issues. Tourism Economics 6(1), MORRIS ALAN, KENNETH, WILSON, and STEVE, BAKALIS. (1995). Modelling tourism flows from Europe to Australia. Tourism Economics 1(2), SCHWARZ, GIDEON (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annuals of Statistics, 6, SEDDIGHI, HAMID and DAVID, SHEARING. (1997). The demand for tourism in North East England with special reference to Northumbria: An Empirical Analysis. Tourism Management 18(8), SIMS, CHRISTOFER (1980). Macroeconomics and reality, Econometrica, 48,

16 SONG, HAIYAN and STEPHEN, WITT (2000). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches, Pergamon, Oxford U.K. WITT, STEPHEN and CHRISTINE, MARTIN (1987). Tourism demand forecasting models: Choice of an appropriate variable to represent tourists cost of living. Tourism Management, 8, WITT, STEPHEN and CHRISTINE, WITT (1992). Modelling and forecasting demand in tourism. Academic Press: London. 16

17 Table 1 -Tests of unit roots hypothesis Augmented Dickey-Fuller Variables τ µ τ τ k B-G LAR [0.167] LY [0.188] LTR [0.244] LTR [0.032] LIRP [0.062] LER [0.164] LRER [0.170] LCP [0.144] LCP [0.157] LAR [0.189] LY [0.356] LTR [0.234] LTR [0.267] LIRP [0.086] LER [0.054] LRER [0.093] LCP [0.061] LCP [0.563] Notes: τ µ is the t-statistic for testing the significance of δ 2 when a time trend is not included in equation 4 and τ τ is the t- statistic for testing the significance of δ 2 when a time trend is included in equation 4. The critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% for N=160 are -3.44, and for τ µ and -4.01, and for τ τ respectively. Numbers inside the brackets indicate significant levels. 17

18 Table 2 - Johansen maximum likelihood procedure LR test based on trace of the stochastic matrix Lag Equation Variables Null Alternative Trace Statistics length of VAR 95% 90% 3a 3b 3c 3d 3e 3f 3g 3h 3i 3j 3k 3l LTR1,LIRP, LCP1 LTR1, LER, LCP1 LTR1,LRER, LCP1 LTR2, LIRP, LCP1 LTR2, LER, LCP1 LTR2, LRER, LCP1 LTR1, LIRP, LCP2 LTR1, LER, LCP2 LTR1, LRER, LCP2 LTR2, LIRP, LCP2 LTR2, LER LCP2 LTR2, LRER LCP

19 Table 3 - Estimates of the vector error correction model for U.S.A Dependent Variable LAR t Regressor Coefficient t-ratio constant LAR t LAR t LAR t LAR t LY t LY t LY t LY t LTR1 t LTR1 t LTR1 t LTR1 t LIRP t LIRP t LIRP t LIRP t LCP1 t LCP1 t LCP1 t LCP1 t D D D e t Table 4 - Testing for the exclusion of variables for U.S.A Dependent Variable LAR t Regressor Coefficient t-ratio constant LAR t LY t LIRP t LCP1 t D D e t

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DOMESTIC PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND WHOLESALE PRICES: THE CASE OF EUROPEAN UNION

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DOMESTIC PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND WHOLESALE PRICES: THE CASE OF EUROPEAN UNION THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DOMESTIC PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND WHOLESALE PRICES: THE CASE OF EUROPEAN UNION Nikolaos Dritsakis, Antonios Adamopoulos Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate

More information

Financial development and economic growth an empirical analysis for Ireland. Antonios Adamopoulos 1

Financial development and economic growth an empirical analysis for Ireland. Antonios Adamopoulos 1 International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research 3 (1): 75-88 Financial development and economic growth an empirical analysis for Ireland Antonios Adamopoulos 1 Abstract This study investigated

More information

FINANCIAL CREDIT INTERMEDIATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: An empirical research for British economy

FINANCIAL CREDIT INTERMEDIATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: An empirical research for British economy FINANCIAL CREDIT INTERMEDIATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: An empirical research for British economy Nikolaos Dritsakis, Christos Michailidis Department of Applied Informatics University of Macedonia Economics

More information

ARE MALAYSIAN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS COINTEGRATED? A COMMENT

ARE MALAYSIAN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS COINTEGRATED? A COMMENT Sunway Academic Journal 2, 101 107 (2005) ARE MALAYSIAN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS COINTEGRATED? A COMMENT TANG TUCK CHEONG a Monash University Malaysia ABSTRACT This commentary aims to provide an insight on

More information

Exchange Rate Determination of Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach. Syed Imran Ali Meerza 1

Exchange Rate Determination of Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach. Syed Imran Ali Meerza 1 Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 33, 3 (2012), 81-96 Exchange Rate Determination of Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach Syed Imran Ali Meerza 1 In this paper, I propose and estimate a

More information

Forecasting Construction Cost Index using Energy Price as an Explanatory Variable

Forecasting Construction Cost Index using Energy Price as an Explanatory Variable Forecasting Construction Cost Index using Energy Price as an Explanatory Variable Variations of ENR (Engineering News Record) Construction Cost Index (CCI) are problematic for cost estimation and bid preparation.

More information

ARTICLE IN PRESS. Available online at Mathematics and Computers in Simulation xxx (2008) xxx xxx

ARTICLE IN PRESS. Available online at  Mathematics and Computers in Simulation xxx (2008) xxx xxx Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Mathematics and Computers in Simulation xxx (2008) xxx xxx 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Abstract Modelling

More information

Research note: The exchange rate, euro switch and tourism revenue in Greece

Research note: The exchange rate, euro switch and tourism revenue in Greece Tourism Economics, 2010, 16 (3), 000 000 Research note: The exchange rate, euro switch and tourism revenue in Greece ALEXI THOMPSON Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, 342 Waters

More information

An Analysis of Cointegration: Investigation of the Cost-Price Squeeze in Agriculture

An Analysis of Cointegration: Investigation of the Cost-Price Squeeze in Agriculture An Analysis of Cointegration: Investigation of the Cost-Price Squeeze in Agriculture Jody L. Campiche Henry L. Bryant Agricultural and Food Policy Center Agricultural and Food Policy Center Department

More information

Testing for oil saving technological changes in ARDL models of demand for oil in G7 and BRICs

Testing for oil saving technological changes in ARDL models of demand for oil in G7 and BRICs Sustainable Development and Planning V 947 Testing for oil saving technological changes in ARDL models of demand for oil in G7 and BRICs M. Asali Petroleum Studies Department, Research Division, OPEC,

More information

ERROR CORRECTION, CO-INTEGRATION AND IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION FOR NIGERIA

ERROR CORRECTION, CO-INTEGRATION AND IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION FOR NIGERIA ERROR CORRECTION, CO-INTEGRATION AND IMPORT DEMAND FUNCTION FOR NIGERIA Omoke, Philip Chimobi Department of Economics Ebonyi State University Abakaliki, Nigeria Email philomoke@yahoo.com Abstract The objective

More information

LONG RUN RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: Evidence from Turkey

LONG RUN RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: Evidence from Turkey LONG RUN RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: Evidence from Turkey Osman KARAMUSTAFA Assistant Professor Department of Business Management Faculty of Economics and

More information

Government Debt and Demand for Money: A Cointegration Approach

Government Debt and Demand for Money: A Cointegration Approach World Review of Business Research Vol. 3. No. 1. January 2013 Issue. pp. 52 58 Government Debt and Demand for Money: A Cointegration Approach JEL Codes: E41 1. Introduction Meng Li * Conventionally, the

More information

Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation

Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation The Pakistan Development Review 39 : 4 Part II (Winter 2000) pp. 857 873 Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation ABDUL QAYYUM 1. INTRODUCTION Monetary economics

More information

Dynamic Impacts of Commodity Prices on the Moroccan Economy and Economic, Political and Social Policy Setting

Dynamic Impacts of Commodity Prices on the Moroccan Economy and Economic, Political and Social Policy Setting Doi:10.5901/mjss.2016.v7n2p177 Abstract Dynamic Impacts of Commodity Prices on the Moroccan Economy and Economic, Political and Social Policy Setting Ahmad Baijou (Corresponding author) School of Business

More information

Employment, Trade Openness and Capital Formation: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan

Employment, Trade Openness and Capital Formation: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan 37 J. Glob. & Sci. Issues, Vol 1, Issue 4, (December 2013) ISSN 2307-6275 Employment, Trade Openness and Capital Formation: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan Muhammad Imran 1, Maqbool Hussian Sial 2 and

More information

Employment and Productivity Link: A Study on OIC Member Countries. Selamah Abdullah Yusof *

Employment and Productivity Link: A Study on OIC Member Countries. Selamah Abdullah Yusof * Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28,1 (2007), 151-168 Employment and Productivity Link: A Study on OIC Member Countries Selamah Abdullah Yusof * The relationship between employment and productivity is

More information

Apple Market Integration: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Development

Apple Market Integration: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Development The Lahore Journal of Economics 13 : 1 (Summer 2008): pp. 129-138 Apple Market Integration: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Development Khalid Mushtaq, Abdul Gafoor and Maula Dad * Abstract In

More information

What Influences Bitcoin s Price? -A VEC Model Analysis

What Influences Bitcoin s Price? -A VEC Model Analysis What Influences Bitcoin s Price? -A VEC Model Analysis Zhu Yechen, Central University of Finance and Economics, China. E-mail: yczhu@163.com David Dickinson, University of Birmingham, UK. E-mail: d.g.dickinson@bham.ac.uk

More information

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Bangladesh and India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

Financial Development and Economic Growth in Bangladesh and India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests Financial Development and Economic Growth in Bangladesh and India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests Md. Zahirul Islam Sikder 1, Dr. Md. Abdul Wadud 2 and Dr. Md. Abu Hasan 3 Abstract The

More information

Can Stock Adjustment Model of Canadian Investment Be Meaningful Case for Multicointegration Analysis?

Can Stock Adjustment Model of Canadian Investment Be Meaningful Case for Multicointegration Analysis? DOI: 1.7763/IPEDR. 214. V69. 4 Can Stock Adjustment Model of Canadian Investment Be Meaningful Case for Multicointegration Analysis? Onur Tutulmaz 1+ and Peter Victor 2 1 Visiting Post-Doc Researcher;

More information

United Kingdom and United States Tourism Demand for Malaysia:A Cointegration Analysis

United Kingdom and United States Tourism Demand for Malaysia:A Cointegration Analysis MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive United Kingdom and United States Tourism Demand for Malaysia:A Cointegration Analysis Fateh Habibi and Khalid Abdul Rahim and Lee Chin university putra malaysia UPM,

More information

Dynamic Interrelationships between Sea Freight and Shipbuilding Markets

Dynamic Interrelationships between Sea Freight and Shipbuilding Markets Dynamic Interrelationships between Sea Freight and Shipbuilding Markets Jane Jing Xu, Tsz Leung Yip, and Liming Liu Department of Logistics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Abstract This paper

More information

Does Energy Consumption Cause Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence From Tunisia

Does Energy Consumption Cause Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence From Tunisia Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(12): 3155-3159, 2011 ISSN 1991-8178 Does Energy Consumption Cause Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence From Tunisia 1 Monia Landolsi and 2 Jaleleddine

More information

Macroeconomic Variables Analysis in Ukraine: An Empirical Approach with Cointegration Method

Macroeconomic Variables Analysis in Ukraine: An Empirical Approach with Cointegration Method American Journal of Applied Sciences 2 (4): 836-842, 2005 ISSN 1546-9239 Science Publications, 2005 Macroeconomic Variables Analysis in Ukraine: An Empirical Approach with Cointegration Method 1 Nikolaos

More information

Testing the long-run relationship between health expenditures and GDP in the presence of structural change: the case of Spain

Testing the long-run relationship between health expenditures and GDP in the presence of structural change: the case of Spain Applied Economics Letters, 2007, 14, 271 276 Testing the long-run relationship between health expenditures and GDP in the presence of structural change: the case of Spain Vicente Esteve* and Jose L. Martı

More information

Investment in Education and Income Inequality: Testing Inverted U-Shaped Hypothesis for Pakistan

Investment in Education and Income Inequality: Testing Inverted U-Shaped Hypothesis for Pakistan Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS) Vol. 36, No. 2 (2016), pp. 751-760 Investment in Education and Income Inequality: Testing Inverted U-Shaped Hypothesis for Pakistan Ghulam Sarwar Assistant Professor,

More information

An Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Demand in Malaysia

An Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Demand in Malaysia 65 An Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Demand in Malaysia Nur Zaimah Ubaidilla University Malaysia Sarawak, Malaysia E-mail: unzaimah@feb.unimas.my 66 An Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Demand

More information

Money Demand in Korea: A Cointegration Analysis,

Money Demand in Korea: A Cointegration Analysis, Trinity College Trinity College Digital Repository Faculty Scholarship 1-2016 Money Demand in Korea: A Cointegration Analysis, 1973-2014 Hyungsun Chloe Cho Trinity College, HYUNG0122@GMAIL.COM Miguel D.

More information

The Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Vietnam: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

The Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Vietnam: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis (Research note) 地域経済研究第 27 号 2016 The Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Vietnam: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis Abstract LE, Thuan Dong * ISHIDA, Miki There has been many researchers studied

More information

Higher Education and Economic Development in the Balkan Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Higher Education and Economic Development in the Balkan Countries: A Panel Data Analysis 1 Further Education in the Balkan Countries Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Faculty of Philosophy and Education Department of Education 23-25 October 2008, Konya Turkey Higher Education and Economic

More information

Estimation of Short and Long Run Equilibrium Coefficients in Error Correction Model: An Empirical Evidence from Nepal

Estimation of Short and Long Run Equilibrium Coefficients in Error Correction Model: An Empirical Evidence from Nepal International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, 2014, Vol. 2, No. 6, 214-219 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ijefm/2/6/1 Science and Education Publishing DOI:10.12691/ijefm-2-6-1

More information

Spatial Pricing Efficiency: The Case of U.S. Long Grain Rice

Spatial Pricing Efficiency: The Case of U.S. Long Grain Rice Spatial Pricing Efficiency: The Case of U.S. Long Grain Rice By Harjanto Djunaidi 1,Kenneth B. Young, Eric J. Wailes and Linwood Hoffman, Nathan Childs A Selected Paper American Agricultural Economics

More information

COMUNICACIÓN III ENCUENTRO DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA VALENCIA DE JUNIO DE 2000 TOURISM AS A LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTOR : THE SPANISH CASE

COMUNICACIÓN III ENCUENTRO DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA VALENCIA DE JUNIO DE 2000 TOURISM AS A LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTOR : THE SPANISH CASE COMUNICACIÓN III ENCUENTRO DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA VALENCIA 1-2-3- DE JUNIO DE 2000 TOURISM AS A LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH FACTOR : THE SPANISH CASE Autores : Jacint Balaguer Manuel Cantavella Jordá (Instituto

More information

The Dynamics of Relationship between Exports, Import and Economic Growth in India

The Dynamics of Relationship between Exports, Import and Economic Growth in India The Dynamics of Relationship between Exports, Import and Economic Growth in India DR. SACHIN N. MEHTA Assistant Professor, D.R. Patel and R. B. Patel Commerce College, Bharthan (Vesu),Surat, Gujarat (India)

More information

Source of Economic Growth in Ethiopia: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Source of Economic Growth in Ethiopia: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Source of Economic Growth in Ethiopia: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Khalid Y. Ahmed and Yokoyama Kenji Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University (APU), Japan ABSTRACT The primary objective

More information

A Reexamination of Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market

A Reexamination of Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market A Reexamination of Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market Samarendu Mohanty, William H. Meyers, and Darnell B. Smith Working Paper 96-WP 171 November 1996 Center for Agricultural and Rural Development

More information

Does Exchange Rate Matter to Agricultural Bilateral Trade Between the United States and Canada?

Does Exchange Rate Matter to Agricultural Bilateral Trade Between the United States and Canada? Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 466 June 2002 Does Exchange Rate Matter to Agricultural Bilateral Trade Between the United States and Canada? Mina Kim, Guedae Cho, and Won W. Koo Center for Agricultural

More information

HEALTH EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: AN ARDL APPROACH FOR THE CASE OF NIGERIA

HEALTH EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: AN ARDL APPROACH FOR THE CASE OF NIGERIA HEALTH EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS: AN ARDL APPROACH FOR THE CASE OF NIGERIA Inuwa Nasiru and Haruna Modibbo Usman Department of Economics, Gombe State University, Gombe E-mail: ninuwa@yahoo.com

More information

Source of Economic Growth in Ethiopia: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model

Source of Economic Growth in Ethiopia: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model Australian Academy of Business and Economics Review (AABER) ISSN (Online) 2205-6726 ISSN (Print) 2205-6734 Source of Economic Growth in Ethiopia: An Application of Vector Error Correction Model Khalid

More information

Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences ISSN: Vol. 2 No. 2 [01-07]

Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences ISSN: Vol. 2 No. 2 [01-07] FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A Panel Data Analysis for OPEC countries Sadr, Seyed Mohammad Hossein Ph.D student in Management Information Technology Department of Management and accounting,

More information

A note on power comparison of panel tests of cointegration An application on. health expenditure and GDP

A note on power comparison of panel tests of cointegration An application on. health expenditure and GDP A note on power comparison of panel tests of cointegration An application on health expenditure and GDP Giorgia Marini * This version, 2007 July * Centre for Health Economics, University of York, YORK,

More information

The influence of the confidence of household economies on the recovery of the property market in Spain

The influence of the confidence of household economies on the recovery of the property market in Spain The influence of the confidence of household economies on the recovery of the property market in Spain Luis Lample, University of San Jorge (Spain) Luis Ferruz, University of Zaragoza (Spain) Abstract

More information

Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Department of Economics Working Paper Series Department of Economics Working Paper Series Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Empirical Evidence Nicholas Apergis University of Macedonia, Greece Stephen M. Miller University of Connecticut

More information

Empirical Evidence on Money Demand Modelling

Empirical Evidence on Money Demand Modelling Journal of Applied Economics and Business Empirical Evidence on Money Demand Modelling Goran Petrevski * Faculty of Economics Skopje, Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Macedonia * goran@eccf.ukim.edu.mk

More information

Vehicle Controls and Petrol Demand in Hong Kong

Vehicle Controls and Petrol Demand in Hong Kong Vehicle Controls and Petrol Demand in Hong Kong W. David Walls School of Economics and Finance University of Hong Kong Pokfulam Road Hong Kong Tel: 852 2859 1049 Fax: 852 2548 1152 Email: wdwalls@hkusub.hku.hk

More information

Human capital and Economic Growth in Indian Economy and its interrelation

Human capital and Economic Growth in Indian Economy and its interrelation Available online at: http://euroasiapub.org pp. 191~203 Human capital and Economic Growth in Indian Economy and its interrelation Shree Priya Singh Research Scholar Department of Economics Banaras Hindu

More information

MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ANALYSIS IN UKRAINE: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH WITH COINTEGRATION METHOD. Nikolaos Dritsakis Katerina Gialetaki**

MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ANALYSIS IN UKRAINE: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH WITH COINTEGRATION METHOD. Nikolaos Dritsakis Katerina Gialetaki** MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ANALYSIS IN UKRAINE: AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH WITH COINTEGRATION METHOD Nikolaos Dritsakis Katerina Gialetaki** Associate Professor, Department of Applied Informatics, University

More information

An Analysis of the Relationship between Manufacturing Growth and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Cointegration Approach

An Analysis of the Relationship between Manufacturing Growth and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Cointegration Approach An Analysis of the Relationship between Manufacturing Growth and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Cointegration Approach Johannes T. Tsoku, Teboho J. Mosikari, Diteboho Xaba, Thatoyaone Modise Abstract

More information

Testing the Market Integration in Regional Cantaloupe and Melon Markets. between the U.S. and Mexico: An Application of Error Correction Model

Testing the Market Integration in Regional Cantaloupe and Melon Markets. between the U.S. and Mexico: An Application of Error Correction Model Testing the Market Integration in Regional Cantaloupe and Melon Markets between the U.S. and Mexico: An Application of Error Correction Model Yan Xia, Dwi Susanto and Parr Rosson* Abstract: This paper

More information

Koi Nyen Wong Monash University, Sunway Campus. Abstract

Koi Nyen Wong Monash University, Sunway Campus. Abstract Disaggregated export demand of Malaysia: evidence from the electronics industry Koi Nyen Wong Monash University, Sunway Campus Abstract This study estimates the determinants of foreign demand for Malaysia's

More information

University of Hawai`i at Mānoa Department of Economics Working Paper Series

University of Hawai`i at Mānoa Department of Economics Working Paper Series University of Hawai`i at Mānoa Department of Economics Working Paper Series Saunders Hall 542, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822 Phone: (808) 956-8496 www.economics.hawaii.edu Working Paper No. 13-3 Estimating

More information

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ZIMBABWE

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ZIMBABWE AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ZIMBABWE Alexander Mapfumo, Researcher Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe E-mail: allymaps@gmail.com

More information

MALAYSIAN BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 1

MALAYSIAN BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 1 MALAYSIAN BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 1 ABSTRACT Mohammed B. Yusoff 2 This paper examines the structure and trends of Malaysian bilateral exports and imports and then investigates whether

More information

Understanding Price Dynamics in Japan's Deflationary Period: A Monetary Perspective

Understanding Price Dynamics in Japan's Deflationary Period: A Monetary Perspective Understanding Price Dynamics in Japan's Deflationary Period: A Monetary Perspective Ryuzo Miyao Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration Kobe University Rokko, Nada, Kobe 657-8501,

More information

Modeling Tourism Demand in Japan Using Cointegration and Error correction Model

Modeling Tourism Demand in Japan Using Cointegration and Error correction Model International Review of Business Research Papers Vol. 8. No.2. March 2012. Pp. 29-43 Modeling Tourism Demand in Japan Using Cointegration and Error correction Model Omorogbe Joseph Asemota and Dahiru Abdullahi

More information

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION & ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: EVIDENCE FROM TIME-SERIES CAUSALITY APPROACH

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION & ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: EVIDENCE FROM TIME-SERIES CAUSALITY APPROACH Romanian Economic and Business Review Vol. 11, number 2 19 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION & ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BANGLADESH: EVIDENCE FROM TIME-SERIES CAUSALITY APPROACH Arifuzzaman KHAN 1 Sandip SARKER 2 Delowar

More information

Human Capital and Economic Growth in India: A Co-integration and Causality Analysis

Human Capital and Economic Growth in India: A Co-integration and Causality Analysis Ushus J B Mgt 14, 2 (2015), 1-18 ISSN 0975-3311 doi: 10.12725/ujbm.31.1 Human Capital and Economic Growth in India: A Co-integration and Causality Analysis Preeti Sharma * and Priyanka Sahni Abstract The

More information

Factors that affect energy consumption: An empirical study of Liaoning province in China

Factors that affect energy consumption: An empirical study of Liaoning province in China Available online www.jocpr.com Journal of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Research, 2014, 6(7):1727-1734 Research Article ISSN : 0975-7384 CODEN(USA) : JCPRC5 Factors that affect energy consumption: An empirical

More information

Spatial Price Transmission: A Study of Rice Markets in Iran

Spatial Price Transmission: A Study of Rice Markets in Iran World Applied Sciences Journal 1 (4): 646-650, 013 ISSN 1818-495 IDOSI Publications, 013 DOI: 10.589/idosi.wasj.013.1.4.175 Spatial Price Transmission: A Study of Rice Markets in Iran 1 1 Forooz Jezghani,

More information

Energy consumption, Income and Price Interactions in Saudi Arabian Economy: A Vector Autoregression Analysis

Energy consumption, Income and Price Interactions in Saudi Arabian Economy: A Vector Autoregression Analysis Advances in Management & Applied Economics, vol.1, no.2, 2011, 1-21 ISSN: 1792-7544 (print version), 1792-7552 (online) International Scientific Press, 2011 Energy consumption, Income and Price Interactions

More information

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: a dynamic panel investigation for the OECD countries

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: a dynamic panel investigation for the OECD countries Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited: a dynamic panel investigation for the OECD countries Iuliana Matei a1 Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the energy consumption-economic

More information

Analyzing the Influence of Electricity Generation on Employment in Pakistan: An Empirical Evidence

Analyzing the Influence of Electricity Generation on Employment in Pakistan: An Empirical Evidence Analyzing the Influence of Electricity Generation on Employment in Pakistan: An Empirical Evidence DR. MUHAMMAD OMER CHAUDHRY Assistant Professor of Economics, B. Z. University, Multan. MS. ISMAT NASIM

More information

Okun s law and its validity in Egypt

Okun s law and its validity in Egypt Okun s law and its validity in Egypt Hany Elshamy The British University in Egypt (BUE) Email:hany.elshamy@bue.edu.eg Abstract Okun s law is a key relationship in microeconomics and finds that the relationship

More information

ZHENG Quanyuan, LIU Zhilin. Henan University, Kaifeng, China

ZHENG Quanyuan, LIU Zhilin. Henan University, Kaifeng, China Economics World, Sep.-Oct. 2017, Vol. 5, No. 5, 429-434 doi: 10.17265/2328-7144/2017.05.005 D DAVID PUBLISHING The Impact of Finance Development on the Income Inequality Between the Urban and the Rural:

More information

SEASONAL INTEGRATION AND COINTEGRATION: MODELLING TOURISM DEMAND IN SINGAPORE

SEASONAL INTEGRATION AND COINTEGRATION: MODELLING TOURISM DEMAND IN SINGAPORE SEASONAL INTEGRATION AND COINTEGRATION: MODELLING TOURISM DEMAND IN SINGAPORE Shahidur Rahman, Tan Khee Giap & Chen Yen Yu Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore

More information

The Role of Education for the Economic Growth of Bulgaria

The Role of Education for the Economic Growth of Bulgaria MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive The Role of Education for the Economic Growth of Bulgaria Mariya Neycheva Burgas Free University April 2014 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55633/ MPRA Paper

More information

FACTOR-AUGMENTED VAR MODEL FOR IMPULSE RESPONSE ANALYSIS

FACTOR-AUGMENTED VAR MODEL FOR IMPULSE RESPONSE ANALYSIS Nicolae DĂNILĂ, PhD The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies E-mail: nicolae.danila@fin.ase.ro Andreea ROŞOIU, PhD Student The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies E-mail: andreea.rosoiu@yahoo.com FACTOR-AUGMENTED

More information

THE SOURCE OF TEMPORARY TECHNOLOGICAL SHOCKS

THE SOURCE OF TEMPORARY TECHNOLOGICAL SHOCKS IJER, Vol. 9, No. 1, January-June, 2012, pp. 53-68 THE SOURCE OF TEMPORARY TECHNOLOGICAL SHOCKS XIANMING MENG University of New England, School of Business, Economics and Public Policy, University of New

More information

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY, REAL WAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT: AN APPLICATION OF BOUNDS TEST APPROACH FOR TURKEY

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY, REAL WAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT: AN APPLICATION OF BOUNDS TEST APPROACH FOR TURKEY Journal of Economic and Social Development Vol 4. No 2., September 2017 11 LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY, REAL WAGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT: AN APPLICATION OF BOUNDS TEST APPROACH FOR TURKEY HacerSimayKaraalp-Orhan Pamukkale

More information

Determinants of Coffee Export Supply in Ethiopia: Error Correction Modeling Approach

Determinants of Coffee Export Supply in Ethiopia: Error Correction Modeling Approach Determinants of Coffee Export Supply in Ethiopia: Error Correction Modeling Approach Hassen Beshir Hussien Wollo University, Department of Agricultural Economics (Principal Author), P.O. Box 1145, Ethiopia

More information

Revenue Determinants in Tourism Market

Revenue Determinants in Tourism Market American Journal of Applied Sciences 7 (12): 1593-1598, 2010 ISSN 1546-9239 2010 Science Publications Revenue Determinants in Tourism Market 1 Mohammad Mohebi and 2 Khalid Abdul Rahim 1 Department of Business

More information

A TIME SERIES INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPACT OF CORPORATE AND PERSONAL CURRENT TAXES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE U. S.

A TIME SERIES INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPACT OF CORPORATE AND PERSONAL CURRENT TAXES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE U. S. Indian Journal of Economics & Business, Vol. 10, No. 1, (2011) : 25-38 A TIME SERIES INVESTIGATION OF THE IMPACT OF CORPORATE AND PERSONAL CURRENT TAXES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE U. S. PETER J. SAUNDERS*

More information

Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Experiences of Selected OIC Countries

Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Experiences of Selected OIC Countries Int. Journal of Economics and Management 8(1): 215 228 (2014) ISSN 1823-836X Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Experiences of Selected OIC Countries Jarita Duasa* International Islamic University

More information

Impact of EU membership process on equity market integration: the case of Turkey

Impact of EU membership process on equity market integration: the case of Turkey Impact of EU membership process on equity market integration: the case of Turkey Abstract Halil Kiymaz Rollins College This paper examines the linkages and dynamic interaction among Turkey and eleven original

More information

Taylor Rule Revisited: from an Econometric Point of View 1

Taylor Rule Revisited: from an Econometric Point of View 1 Submitted on 19/Jan./2011 Article ID: 1923-7529-2011-03-46-06 Claudia Kurz and Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim Taylor Rule Revisited: from an Econometric Point of View 1 Claudia Kurz University of Applied Sciences

More information

Short and Long Run Equilibrium between Electricity Consumption and Foreign Aid

Short and Long Run Equilibrium between Electricity Consumption and Foreign Aid Review of Contemporary Business Research June 2014, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 105-115 ISSN: 2333-6412 (Print), 2333-6420 (Online) Copyright The Author(s). 2014. All Rights Reserved. Published by American Research

More information

Sensitivity Of Stock Prices To Money Supply Dynamics

Sensitivity Of Stock Prices To Money Supply Dynamics MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Sensitivity Of Stock Prices To Money Supply Dynamics Mpho Bosupeng University of Botswana 2014 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/77924/ MPRA Paper No. 77924,

More information

Tourism Equilibrium Price Trends

Tourism Equilibrium Price Trends American Journal of Applied Sciences 9 (4): 472-477, 2012 ISSN 1546-9239 2012 Science Publications Tourism Equilibrium Price Trends 1 Mohammad Mohebi and 2 Khalid Abdul Rahim 1 Department of Business Management,

More information

The U.S. Agricultural Sector and the Macroeconomy

The U.S. Agricultural Sector and the Macroeconomy Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 42,3(August 2010):457 465 Ó 2010 Southern Agricultural Economics Association The U.S. Agricultural Sector and the Macroeconomy Jungho Baek and Won W. Koo

More information

Assessing the Impact of Exchange Rate on Major Agricultural Export Commodities of Thailand

Assessing the Impact of Exchange Rate on Major Agricultural Export Commodities of Thailand International Journal of Agricultural Technology 2016 Vol. 12(6): 973-982 Available online http://www.ijat-aatsea.com ISSN 1686-9141 Assessing the Impact of Exchange Rate on Major Agricultural Export Commodities

More information

Do Oil Price Shocks Matter for Competition: A Vector Error Correction Approach to Russian Labor Market

Do Oil Price Shocks Matter for Competition: A Vector Error Correction Approach to Russian Labor Market International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ISSN: 246-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 207, 7(4), 68-75. Do Oil Price Shocks Matter

More information

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN PAKISTAN

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN PAKISTAN Pak. J. Agri. Sci., Vol. 47(1), 82-87; 2010 ISSN (Print) 0552-9034, ISSN (Online) 2076-0906 http://www.pakjas.com.pk TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN PAKISTAN Zahoor Hussain Javed 1, Muhammad

More information

An Analysis of the Relationship between Remuneration (Real Wage) and Labour Productivity in South Africa

An Analysis of the Relationship between Remuneration (Real Wage) and Labour Productivity in South Africa An Analysis of the Relationship between Remuneration (Real Wage) and Labour Productivity in South Africa Johannes Tshepiso Tsoku Department of Statistics, North West University, Mafikeng Campus, South

More information

A Dynamic Equilibrium of Electricity Consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: An Empirical Investigation

A Dynamic Equilibrium of Electricity Consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: An Empirical Investigation A Dynamic Equilibrium of Electricity Consumption and GDP in Hong Kong: An Empirical Investigation Chun-Yu Ho y Boston University Kam-Wing Siu zy Boston University First Version: July 2006 Final Version:

More information

Dynamic Linkages among European Carbon Markets: Insights on price transmission

Dynamic Linkages among European Carbon Markets: Insights on price transmission DIME International Conference -3 September, 2008 GRETHA (UMR CNRS 53), University of Bordeaux (France) September, 2008 Dynamic Linkages among European Carbon Markets: Insights on price transmission PRELIMINARY

More information

A Study on Turnover Effect of Housing Asset

A Study on Turnover Effect of Housing Asset , pp.162-166 http://dx.doi.org/10.14257/astl.2015.114.31 A Study on Turnover Effect of Housing Asset HyunWook Ryu 1, SangSu Keum 1 95 Hoam-ro, Uijeongbu, Shinhan University 11644 Gyeonggi, Republic of

More information

Gross Domestic Capital Formation, Exports and Economic Growth

Gross Domestic Capital Formation, Exports and Economic Growth Gross Domestic Capital Formation, Exports and Economic Growth Sana Iftikhar PhD Scholar, Department of Economics, National College of Business Administration & Economics (NCBA&E), Lahore Fakhar-un-Nisa

More information

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Joint Vienna Institute / IMF Institute. Course on Macroeconomic Forecasting (JV10.14) Vienna, Austria

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Joint Vienna Institute / IMF Institute. Course on Macroeconomic Forecasting (JV10.14) Vienna, Austria INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Joint Vienna Institute / IMF Institute Course on Macroeconomic Forecasting (JV10.14) Vienna, Austria April 21 May 2, 2014 Reading List Session L 1 Overview of Macroeconomic

More information

7. The contribution of human capital to growth: some estimates

7. The contribution of human capital to growth: some estimates Bas van Leeuwen Human Capital and Economic Growth 7. The contribution of human capital to growth: some estimates 1. INTRODUCTION So far we have noted that human capital seems to affect economic growth

More information

Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China

Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China Auburn University Department of Economics Working Paper Series Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China Liping Gao and Hyeongwoo Kim Georgia Southern University; Auburn University

More information

A Study on the Location Determinants of the US FDI in China

A Study on the Location Determinants of the US FDI in China Management Science and Engineering ISSN 1913-0341 Vol.3 No.2 2009 Canadian Research & Development Center of Sciences and Cultures 06/20/2009 E-mail: mse@cscanada.org; caooc@hotmail.com Http://www.cscanada.org

More information

Supply Response of Rice in Ghana: A Co-integration Analysis

Supply Response of Rice in Ghana: A Co-integration Analysis Supply Response of Rice in Ghana: A Co-integration Analysis John K.M. Kuwornu (Corresponding author) Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, P. O. Box LG 68, University of Ghana, Legon-Accra,

More information

This article presents an empirical model of U.S. consumer spending

This article presents an empirical model of U.S. consumer spending The Wealth Effect in Empirical Life-Cycle Aggregate Consumption Equations Yash P. Mehra This article presents an empirical model of U.S. consumer spending that relates consumption to labor income and household

More information

Effects of World Crude Oil Prices on Crude Oil Import: Evidence from Pakistan

Effects of World Crude Oil Prices on Crude Oil Import: Evidence from Pakistan 58 J. Asian Dev. Stud, Vol. 4, Issue 2, (June 2015) ISSN 2304-375X Effects of World Crude Oil Prices on Crude Oil Import: Evidence from Pakistan Abdullah 1, Gulab Shair 2, Asad Ali 3 and Waseem Siraj 4

More information

Seminar Master Major Financial Economics : Quantitative Methods in Finance

Seminar Master Major Financial Economics : Quantitative Methods in Finance M. Sc. Theoplasti Kolaiti Leibniz University Hannover Seminar Master Major Financial Economics : Quantitative Methods in Finance Winter Term 2018/2019 Please note: The seminar paper should be 15 pages

More information

Food Imports and Exchange Rate: The Application of Dynamic Cointegration Framework

Food Imports and Exchange Rate: The Application of Dynamic Cointegration Framework Malaysian Journal of Mathematical Sciences 11(S) February: 101 114 (2017) Special Issue: Conference on Agriculture Statistics 2015 (CAS 2015) MALAYSIAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES Journal homepage:

More information

Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development ISSN (Paper) ISSN (Online) Vol.6, No.6, 2015

Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development ISSN (Paper) ISSN (Online) Vol.6, No.6, 2015 Investigation the Effect of using ICT Tools on Success of Companies at Increasing Market Share (A Case Study: Manufacturer of Smart Homes and Offices of Tehran) Amiran, Heydar 1 Jamshidi Goharrizi,Mozhdeh

More information

Keywords: Devaluation, Money Supply, Co-integration, Error Correction Mechanism JEL Classification: C22, E51

Keywords: Devaluation, Money Supply, Co-integration, Error Correction Mechanism JEL Classification: C22, E51 Journal of Social and Organizational Analysis, 2015 Devaluation and Its Impact on Money Supply Growth Muhammad Asif * Management Sciences Department, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology Abbottabad,

More information

Testing for Seasonal Integration and Cointegration: The Austrian Consumption Income Relationship LIYAN HAN GERHARD THURY. Shima Goudarzi June 2010

Testing for Seasonal Integration and Cointegration: The Austrian Consumption Income Relationship LIYAN HAN GERHARD THURY. Shima Goudarzi June 2010 Testing for Seasonal Integration and Cointegration: The Austrian Consumption Income Relationship LIYAN HAN GERHARD THURY Shima Goudarzi June 2010 Table of content -Introduction -Univariate tests of the

More information