OPERATOR STRATEGIES FOR THE esim ERA: OPPORTUNITIES IN DEVICE BUNDLING, SALES CHANNELS AND WHOLESALE

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1 RESEARCH STRATEGY REPORT OPERATOR STRATEGIES FOR THE esim ERA: OPPORTUNITIES IN DEVICE BUNDLING, SALES CHANNELS AND WHOLESALE KEREM ARSAL analysysmason.com

2 About this report An esim is an embedded (although potentially removable) SIM within a mobile device that allows users to activate or switch services remotely without being tied to an operator s network. This report assesses how the introduction of esims onto consumer devices (including smartphones) will affect operators strategies and their position within the telecoms value chain. It examines how the arrival of esims reflects current market trends, including the growth of SIM-only plans and the emergence of consumer financing by device vendors. The report identifies three strategic areas that operators interested in the esim opportunity should prioritise: multi-device bundles, sales channels and wholesale opportunities. We make clear recommendations about how operators can take advantage of esims on consumer devices. The report is based on these sources: Analysys Mason s research on esims and remote SIM provisioning 1 interviews with stakeholders in the mobile market operating in developed and emerging markets Analysys Mason s Connected Consumer Survey data on mobile services and devices usage Analysys Mason s Telecoms Market Matrix and regional data and forecasts. 1 For further details, see Analysys Mason s Remote service provisioning and esims: implications for the consumer market. KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN THIS REPORT What changes are esims likely to bring to the telecoms value chain? How do these changes relate to consumer interest in SIM-only plans and the emergence of handset vendor financing schemes? What can operators do to respond to these shifts in the value chain? Which device strategies should operators adopt as esims become more prevalent on consumer devices, including smartphones? How should operators configure their sales and marketing channels to better adapt to esims and remote service provisioning (RSP)? What changes in wholesale and MVNO business can be expected, and what will the operator appetite be for taking advantage of them? WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT Operator CSOs and strategy managers who want to understand more about the potential shifts in the telecoms value chain and the associated implications for multiple areas of their business. Operators product and marketing managers who are interested in understanding how approaches to mobile data monetisation, service design and channel structures may evolve in light of these changes. Device and terminal managers at operators who would like to gain more insight into how they can adapt their strategies for the arrival of esims. Wholesale units with an interest in how the introduction of esims may generate opportunities for their business. 2

3 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CREATING A MULTI-DEVICE STRATEGY REVISING THE CHANNEL STRUCTURE EXPLOITING THE WHOLESALE OPPORTUNITY ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON 3

4 Executive summary Operators can take advantage of the introduction of esims on consumer devices (including smartphones) if they adapt their device bundles, channel emphasis and wholesale approach. Operators role in the telecoms value chain has weakened in markets where consumers show growing interest in SIM-only plans and financing schemes from handset vendors are emerging. These developments challenge operators traditionally strong position as mobile device distributors. esims will enable remote service provisioning and will allow the entrance of many new players, which may further weaken operators relationships with their customers. However, it also presents opportunities: operators can adapt to the requirements of their evolving markets. 1 This report identifies three ways that operators can capitalise on the introduction of esims on consumer devices: building multi-device bundles based on shared data plans and a separation of service and device fees shifting the channel strategy to a more aggressive use of nonexclusive channels and digital sales and service delivery exploiting wholesale opportunities that emerge as a result of dramatically falling barriers to entry for mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). 1 This is likely to be considered first by challenger or disruptive mobile operators with limited fixed assets. Figure 1: Three strategic areas of consideration for operators interested in esims DEVICE BUNDLES SALES CHANNELS WHOLESALE Current operator emphasis Traditional device plans with separate data plans for companion devices Emphasis on owned stores and franchises Cautious approach to MVNOs and wholesale partnerships More emphasis needed Shared data plans for multiple devices with device service fee separation Openness to non-exclusive channels, especially for companion devices Hosting many new entrants, especially by mobile-centric operators Source: Analysys Mason 4

5 The growth of SIM-only plans has weakened operators role in the value chain, but esims will present operators with unique opportunities The inclusion of esims on smartphones offers opportunities to operators that can adapt to the challenging telecoms landscape. Mobile operators have long relied on bundling smartphones with their services to grow their customer base and reduce churn. When smartphones were first introduced, each operator s exclusive access to certain brands and models substantially impacted its mobile market share. Operators have also been able to tie customers into long-term contracts and benefit from reduced churn rates by offering financing and locking smartphones to their networks. As smartphone adoption has matured and innovation stagnated, consumers have started to move towards SIM-only plans. These plans can be used in combination with consumers current smartphones or with new smartphones purchased from retailers. Consumer financing, which handset vendors such as Apple have started to offer, makes it easier for consumers to buy their mobile devices outside of operator channels. The potential take-up of esims will share some key drivers with SIM-only growth, such as the consumer demand for service flexibility and the shift towards buying smartphones from retailers. However, esims will also offer operators some new growth opportunities. This report outlines these opportunities and describes how operators can realistically capture them. Figure 2: Overview of present market conditions and the potential benefits of esims for some of the major players in the telecoms value chain Player Original equipment vendors (OEMs), device vendors Independent device sellers and third-party retailers Operators MVNOs Present market conditions Smartphone sales are stagnating and growth is needed through new consumer mobile devices SIM-only growth is partly related to their growing strength as smartphone channels Companion device attach rates are very poor and smartphone sales channels are gradually shifting towards retailers that offer SIM-only plans. Physical SIM distribution is a costly activity Benefits esims can enable vendors to design devices with better mobile use cases; operator channel dependence will be lower if connectivity is provided at any point of sale through esims. If these players can partner with multiple connectivity providers and give consumers choice, esims can help them make an impact. esims can be used to sell more cellular devices if adequate bundling tactics are used. Operators will not want to use non-exclusive retailers for their connectivity sales; market leaders will want to avoid comparability. esims eliminate the need for physical SIM distribution, and service activation can be electronic, which means that barriers to entry for these players are lower. 5

6 We have identified three priorities for operators interested in the opportunities presented by esims to consider We have identified three priorities for operators interested in developing the potential of esim-enabled consumer devices. Building a strong multi-device bundle strategy Operators have an immediate opportunity to sell connectivity to esim-enabled companion devices, although RSP specifications for any consumer device, including smartphones, are available as of June Shared data plans with split device and service fees can attract consumers who do not wish to commit to separate plans for each companion device. They can also accommodate the replacement cycles of different segments. Revisiting the channel strategy Operators will need to be more open to selling connectivity for devices (at first, just companion devices) sold through nonexclusive channels. Moreover, they need to move their own stores beyond phone shops to stimulate multi-device take-up, while also developing digital sales and service delivery capabilities for RSP. Considering wholesale opportunities esims will significantly lower the barriers to entry for MVNOs, especially for those engaged in mobile device distribution. Mobile network operators will not share the same level of enthusiasm for hosting newcomers, but opportunities will emerge. 1 The technical esim specifications for all consumer mobile devices released by GSMA in June 2016 are largely the same as those released in February. Actual business models remain to be decided upon among industry stakeholders. Figure 3: Major trends related to a potential take-up of esims Priorities Areas of concern How the introduction of esims can address concerns Multi-device bundles Channel strategy Wholesale opportunities Low cellular attachment rates for companion devices Consumer reluctance to buy separate data plans for companion devices Retailers taking over device sales when cellular connectivity is not in demand Lack of standalone mobile use cases for some devices. SIM-only behaviour causes device sales to move to nonoperator channels The importance of online channels for device purchases is increasing. MVNOs require dense SIM distribution channels Mobile operators with limited fixed assets struggle to grow revenue in FMC-heavy markets More cellular-capable devices from both operator and retail channels will be available Shared data plans can address ad-hoc mobile usage of companion devices Devices with stronger potential for mobile use cases will be available. Enables more convenient device additions to data plans. Can use non-exclusive channels more aggressively to sell connectivity Digital channels enhance service sales and delivery Reduced barriers to MVNO entry because SIM distribution is not required. Challenger mobile operators that cannot compete with integrated multi-play offers may be presented with a revenue opportunity. 6

7 Recommendations 1 Operators must focus on extending cellular connectivity to companion devices by creating shared data plans and separating device and service fees. esims present operators with the opportunity to refocus their efforts on companion devices: the technology can help to improve standalone mobile use cases and activation processes. Shared data plans can help alleviate consumer reluctance to buy separate mobile data plans for such devices, while a separation of device and service fees may facilitate the implementation of flexible upgrade programs. 2 Operators should consider non-exclusive sales channels seriously, while also improving their digital sales and service delivery capabilities. The impact of esims is likely to be most noticeable when operators can provide connectivity to mobile devices sold through non-exclusive retailer channels. All operators may benefit from using such channels more aggressively for sales of companion devices, but for smartphones, challenger operators may have a greater incentive. In order to benefit from RSP, operators must also develop their digital sales and service delivery. 3 Operators need to assess growing wholesale opportunities with new entrant MVNOs; challenger operators or mobile-centric players in markets moving towards converged bundles may be more keen to host newcomers. Many vendors and Internet players with a foothold in mobile device distribution will consider launching MVNOs as the need for physical SIM distribution wanes. Challenger mobile operators and those with mobile-centric positioning in markets with converged bundles can respond quickly, but market leaders and incumbent operators with an interest in converged bundles may hesitate to enter such agreements because of fear of competition. 7

8 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CREATING A MULTI-DEVICE STRATEGY REVISING THE CHANNEL STRUCTURE EXPLOITING THE WHOLESALE OPPORTUNITY ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON 26

9 About the author Kerem Arsal (Senior Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason s Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments. 27

10 Analysys Mason s consulting and research are uniquely positioned Analysys Mason s consulting services and research portfolio Digital economy Regional markets Consumer and SME services Telecoms software and networks Regulation and policy Transaction support Strategy and planning CONSULTING We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms industry: communications and digital service providers, vendors, financial and strategic investors, private equity and infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters, and service and content providers. Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces. We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges and opportunities that new technology brings. RESEARCH Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises. We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct access to analysts. 28

11 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. Research portfolio PROGRAMMES Next-Generation Wireless Networks Service Assurance Customer Experience Management Customer Care Revenue Management Analytics Network Orchestration Software-Controlled Networking Service Delivery Platforms Service Fulfilment Telecoms Software Market Shares Telecoms Software Forecasts PROGRAMMES Convergence Strategies Fixed Networks Wireless Networks Spectrum Network technologies Telecoms software and networks Consumer and SME services Regional markets PROGRAMMES Mobile Services Mobile Devices Fixed Broadband and Video SME Strategies Digital economy PROGRAMMES PROGRAMMES Global Telecoms Forecasts Asia Pacific The Middle East and Africa European Country Reports European Core Forecasts European Telecoms Market Matrix Digital Economy Strategies Digital Economy Platforms Future Comms and Media IoT and M2M Solutions To find out more, please visit 29

12 Consulting from Analysys Mason For 30 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. Consulting portfolio EXPERTISE Performance analysis Technology optimisation Commercial excellence Transformation services Performance improvement EXPERTISE Radio spectrum auction support Radio spectrum management EXPERTISE Policy development and response Margin squeeze tests Analysing regulatory accounts Expert legal support Media regulation Postal sector costing, pricing and regulation Regulatory economic costing Net cost of universal service Regulation EXPERTISE Transaction support Commercial due diligence Regulatory due diligence Technical due diligence Spectrum policy and auction support Strategy and planning EXPERTISE Market research Market analysis Business strategy and planning Market sizing and forecasting Benchmarking and best practice National and regional broadband strategy and implementation To find out more, please visit 30

13 PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN JULY 2016 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

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