Market View FMCG 2015

Transcription

1 Market View FMCG 2015 HM/SM Channel ECR Meeting Panagiotis Boretos Deputy Managing Director Commercial Director 9/03/2016

2 Key Findings GDP counting from 2010 is the first year with the smaller percentage decline Deflation continues follows the same pattern as Negative sales tend for the market 2015 vs 2014 Negative trends in both volume and value terms for the 2015 The week of referendum was the only positive point in the whole year Packaged Food and Frozen Food the only two macro categories with positive trend in total market Dairy macro category for the 2016 forecats a slight decrease vs the Packaged Food shows to remain in the same level KEY FINDINGS FOR THE TOTAL MARKET Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

3 Content 1 Greek Market layout 2 Trends in value for Total Greece Super/Hyper Markets 3 Trends in value for 10 biggest Retailers Super/Hyper Markets 4 Forecasting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3

4 -0,9% -1,3% -1,7% Greece economy GDP RETAIL TURNOVER INDEX (w.o AUTOMOTIVE FUEL) Jan/Oct '15 vs. Jan/Oct ' % -1.2% -1.0% -1.0% -1.8 % -4.9 % -7.1 % -6.4 % -5.3 % -7.2% -11.3% -8.6% INFLATION RATE TREND 4,7% UNEMPLOYMENT % % % % % 3,3% % 1,5% Source: ELSTAT Feb 2016 (latest available period/provisional data) Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4

5 In 2015 the negative sales trend remains (total market) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND -1.4% -2.1% Super Markets Selfservice retail stores with a central check-out area and at least 2 cash registers, offering a large variety of groceries as well as consumer durables and goods. Hypermarkets stores with large selling spaces (over 2500 sqm) and even broader range of products. YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015 YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015 Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5

6 Negative trends in both volume and value terms in year 2015 SUPER/HYPER MARKETS, ,6-0,1-0,4-1,4-2,0-2,1-1,7-3,5-3, Value Volume Price per Volume Source: IRI InfoScan, YTD: Jan Dec 2015 Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6

7 Value sales trend vs respective interval year ago (total sales) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND BY MONTH 4,1% 5,5% 3,0% 1,5% 1,5% 2,3% 3,1% -0,1% -4,2% -2,7% -4,8% -3,3% -3,1% -2,7% -2,5% -3,4% -4,4% -2,6% -3,9% -3,6% -6,3% -7,5% -8,3% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7

8 An endless value decline: -3,5% in the last 24 months! (total Greece) MARKET VALUE MAT VALUE MAT referendum Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8

9 Alcoholic drinks, frozen food and snacks report a positive sales trend (total market) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2015 DAIRY 18% OTHER PRODUCTS 2% HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS 7% PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY 7% OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS 4% COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS 10% PERSONAL HYGIENE 6% NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 11% ALCOHOL DRINKS 6% FROZEN FOOD 4% SNACKS 9% PACKAGED FOOD 16% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9

10 Packaged food and Frozen Food report a positive sales trend (total market) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2015 vs 2014 HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES PERSONAL HYGIENE -1,2% -2,4% -2,0% -2,4% PACKAGED FOOD 1,7% SNACKS -0,3% FROZEN FOOD 1,1% ALCOHOL DRINKS COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS DAIRY -5,5% -4,0% -3,7% -4,5% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10

11 Personal Hygiene, Snacks & Frozen Food report a positive sales trend (total market) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2014 vs 2013 HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES -4,8% -3,8% -2,9% PERSONAL HYGIENE 1,2% PACKAGED FOOD -0,1% SNACKS FROZEN FOOD 2,1% 3,3% ALCOHOL DRINKS COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS DAIRY -2,4% -1,2% -2,2% -2,5% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11

12 In 2015 the negative sales trend remains (8 biggest retailers) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 0.9% -1.2% YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015 Market share YR 2013 YR 2014 YR Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12

13 Value sales trend vs respective interval year ago (8 biggest retailers) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND BY MONTH 9,0% 5,1% 5,4% 3,6% -1,9% -1,3% -3,0% 2,5% 3,0% 1,4% 1,1% 0,6% 0,6% -0,3% 3,9% -2,5% 2,1% -3,0% -4,5% -5,0% -4,6% -6,5% -8,2% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13

14 Value sales trend vs H vs H TOTAL HM/SM 3,0% 4,1% 2,3% 3,1% -0,1% -4,2% -2,7% -4,8% -4,4% -6,3% 8 BIGGEST RETAILERS 3,6% 5,1% 3,9% 5,4% 2,1% -1,9% -1,3% -3,0% -2,5% -4,5% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14

15 Value sales trend vs H vs H TOTAL HM/SM 5,5% 1,5% 1,5% -3,3% -3,4% -3,1% -2,7% -2,5% -0,5% -2,6% -3,9% -3,6% -8,3% -7,5% KEY RETAILERS 9,0% 2,5% 3,0% 1,4% 0,6% 0,6% 1,1% -0,3% -6,5% -1,4% -3,0% -5,0% -4,6% -8,2% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15

16 Greek Referendum announcement temporarily reversed the trend (total Greece) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND / PRE AND POST REFERENDUM WEEKS 39,1% -2,8% -1,7% -1,1% -4,2% -5,8% -6,2% -6,4% -8,7% -11,6% 1,8% 1,8% -1,7% -3,4% -3,0% 0,6% -3,2% -3,0% -2,1% -4,2% -4,6% -6,9% -2,1% -1,1% -2,8% -3,7% -6,8% -5,4% -8,0% -11,4% -6,0% -6,2% * Greek Referendum Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16

17 Greek Referendum announcement temporarily reversed the trend ( key retailers) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND / PRE AND POST REFERENDUM WEEKS 46,2% -0,4% 0,6% 1,5% -1,7% -3,0% -6,8% -10,3% -4,8%-4,0% 1,0% 1,0% -2,5% -4,6%-3,6% 0,4% -1,4% -3,3%-3,6% -3,0% -3,4% -4,8% -3,6% -5,4% -8,3% -7,8% -5,6% -5,3% -6,6% -7,2% -9,7% -11,9% * Greek Referendum Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17

18 Packaged Food, Frozen Food and Snacks report a positive sales trend (key retailers) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2015 vs 2014 HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES PERSONAL HYGIENE PACKAGED FOOD -0,8% -1,7% -1,4% -2,2% -1.2% -2.4% -2.0% -2.4% 3,1% 1.7% SNACKS 0,6% -0.3% FROZEN FOOD 2,2% +1.1% ALCOHOL DRINKS COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS DAIRY -5,0% -3,5% -2,4% -3,0% -5.5% -4.0% -3.7% -4.5% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM In blue the trends of Total Maket Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18

19 Alcoholic drinks, frozen food and snacks report a positive sales trend (key retailers) HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2014 vs 2013 HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES -2,8% -1,7% -0,7% -3.8% -2.9% -4.8% PERSONAL HYGIENE 3,6% 1.2% PACKAGED FOOD 1,8% -0.1% SNACKS FROZEN FOOD 4,3% 5,0% 2.1% 3.3% ALCOHOL DRINKS -0,4% -2.4% COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS 0,6% 1,9% -1.2% -2.2% DAIRY 0,0% -2.5% Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19

20 Macro category per week & Forecast 2016 (macros considered: GDP, unemployment, price index) 20

21 IRI Strategic Forecasting Methodology Background Approach for the Causal Models: Projections were developed using time-series estimation techniques such as seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models with exogenous variables. Time series methods are based on analysis of historical transactions data, these methods make the assumption that patterns in the past can be used to estimate future sales and consumption trends. Findings from Evidence-based Forecasting: Methods for Reducing Forecast Error, International Journal of Forecasting, 2006). Copyright 2014 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21

22 IRI Strategic Forecasting Category level forecast to better understand category trends & key volume drivers What does it do Strategic forecasting is a capability that allows to understand what are the primary causal drivers of a brand s or category s sales Forecast future sales trends for key products, and the overall category What data does it need 3+ years of POS data (or aggregate level data) with key causal measures and any relevant information to the categories: Macroeconomic factors, media, etc. What does it produce It produces forecast for weekly, quad-weekly, or quarterly periods along with sales decompositions (key sales drivers) How does it work IRI s comprehensive forecasting solution leverages historical sales data and multiple causal factors as well to provide the best informed prediction of category trends and future performance Regression models estimate the key causal factors affecting sales fluctuations as well as the underlying sales trend Time Series models forecast key causal measures into the future Copyright 2014 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22

23 What we use to inform our Forecasting models 3+ years of POS data with key causal measures Price & Trade variables Distribution Competition Competitive Categories Direct competitive products Macroeconomic Factors Consumer confidence and price indices Unemployment rates Gasoline Price, Housing and Transportation costs Media TV, Print, other GRPs & Costs Digital metrics (search, web visits) as available Actuals & Planned Other Research & Data Consumer purchasing research New product innovation trends Seasonality and Holidays Copyright 2014 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23

24 Millions Value Forecasting the 2016 in the Total Market Total Market Year Total Market % ,0% ,2% ,0% Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24

25 Year over Year % change 15/16 Upper Limit Mean % change 15/16 Lower Limit 10% DAIRY PACKAGED FOOD NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES COOKING AIDS INGREDIENTS and CONDIMENTS SNACKS HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS and DETERGENTS PERSONAL CARE and BEAUTY PERSONAL HYGIENE ALCOHOL DRINKS FROZEN FOOD OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS OTHER PRODUCTS 8% 6% 4% 3,9% 2% 0% -2% 0,1% -1,2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -5,8% -5,6% -5,1% -6,6% -4,1% -4,1% -8,8% -4,2% -5,5% Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25

26 Millions Value Millions Value The top two macro categories Dairy & Packaged Food Dairy Packaged Food Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26

27 Millions Value Millions Value Non Alcoholic Beverages Cooking Aids Ingredients & Condiments Non Alcoholic Beverages Cooking Aids Ingredients & Condiments Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27

28 Millions Value Millions Value Snacks & Household Cleaners & Detergents Snacks Household Cleaners & Detergents Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28

29 Millions Value Millions Value Personal Hygiene & Alcohol Drinks Personal Hygiene Alcohol Drinks Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29

30 Millions Value Millions Value Frozen Food & Personal Care - Beauty Frozen Food Personal Care & Beauty Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30

31 Millions Value Millions Value Other Household Products & Other Products 70 Other Household Products Other Products Source: IRI Foreacsting Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31

32 Thank you! Copyright 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32