National Retail Report Canada SPRING 2015 EDITION. Accelerating success.
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1 National Retail Report Canada SPRING 2015 EDITION Accelerating success.
2 Report prepared by Colliers International Consulting James Smerdon Vice President and Director, Retail Consulting DIRECT James is a retail consultant and market analyst with Colliers International Consulting, based in Vancouver. James has been a consultant since 1997, and has advised on hundreds of retail development projects across the country. David Bell Senior Associate, Planning and Retail Consulting DIRECT david.bell@colliers.com David is a retail planning consultant and market analyst with Colliers International Consulting, having joined the Vancouver office in Over the past 16 years, David has consulted on hundreds of public and private sector retail and mixed-use projects throughout Canada. Colliers International Consulting (CIC) Colliers International Consulting (CIC) is an independent consulting group based in Vancouver, British Columbia. CIC specializes in strategic real estate analysis for Private and Public Sector clients both domestically and abroad. Our project experience spans a range of specializations in: Strategic Advisory Acquisition/Divestiture Strategies Asset & Portfolio Management Competitive Assessment Consolidation Advice Feasibility Analysis Highest & Best Use Studies Merchandising Pro Forma Development Retail Inventory Analysis Retail Locational Analysis Retail Potential Analysis Revitalization/Redevelopment Studies Site Selection and Ranking Strategic Planning Strategic Positioning Trade Area Analysis Development Management Facilities Planning Project Budgeting/Scheduling Tenant Improvements First Nation Advisory Community Planning Economic Development Governance Public Consultation Urban Planning Municipal Approval Process Site Planning & Concept Development Community Consultation Community Workshops & Consultation Focus Groups Market Analysis Absorption Analysis Competitive Assessment Demand Assessment Demographic Modeling Demographic Profiling Market Impact Assessment Residential & Commercial Market Analysis
3 What is Canada's Largest Retailer? A seemingly simple question then becomes more complex as we tried to answer it. Is the largest retailer the one with the greatest global revenue? Highest sales volume in Canada alone? The largest single banner or collective of many store banners? Or is size simply a measure of floor area? We have all the answers to the one question of Canada s largest retailer: Global revenue: according to the Globe and Mail, the Canadian retailer boasting the greatest revenue is Alimentation Couche-Tard, with global revenue from this diverse convenience store and gas station conglomerate topping $35.5 billion in George Weston Ltd. is close behind at $33.7 billion, however, Loblaw Cos. is also listed by the Globe and Mail at $32.4 billion, and Shoppers Drug Mart (acquired by Loblaw) at $11.1 billion. If those revenues are added to the George Weston Ltd. total, it would be the largest Canadian-based retailer by a clear margin. Canadian Sales: the Centre For the Study of Commercial Activity (CSCA) compiles a list of Canada s leading 1
4 retailers, which includes only domestic retail sales. The CSCA list (using 2013 data) has the Weston Group number one ($32.4 billion), and Shoppers Drug Mart ranking 6th with an additional $10.9 billion. Clearly, the Weston Group is the leading conglomerate at selling to Canadians. Walmart Canada ranks second at $27.1 billion (2013), but 2015 sales will undoubtedly reflect the Target Canada closures on Walmart s bottom line. In 2013, according to CSCA, Target Canada s sales were $1.3 billion spread over 13,600,000 ft.². This means that Target Canada s chain wide productivity was an anemic $97 per square foot, compared to Walmart s $492! Largest Online: Current estimates of online sales revenue has Amazon leading for Canadians online spending with over $2 billion in sales in Walmart has made a strong push into online retailing. In only the last 4 years, Walmart has grown its online sales to over $1 billion in Canada. While the total sales volumes still pale in comparison to traditional retailing, the growth rates continue to amaze: Walmart s online sales are growing at an average of 16 per year, and online as a whole grew by 1 last year. Single Banner: if we just look at sales through a single store brand, there is none larger than Walmart. With Canadian sales of $27.1 billion, Walmart s national chain of almost 400 stores is truly remarkable. Floor Area: according to CSCA s most recent data, Walmart s 2013 store network covered over 55,000,000 ft.² this number has certainly jumped in recent years both through the development of new stores as well as assuming some of the vacated Zellers and Target stores. However, Weston Group s 52,600,000 ft.² plus 13,800,000 ft.² acquired with Shoppers Drug Mart means that the Westons trump the Waltons in this category too. Economic Impact: with almost 1400 stores (rank 4), 22 different chains (1), and 250,000 employees (1, including SDM), The Weston Group is without a doubt Canada s first family of retail. Their chains cover Canada from coast to coast and represent over 14% of all retail sales in this country. Sales productivity: On most of the above categories, depending on the fiscal year or whether you consider multiple banners to be multiple retailers, for example, there can be some debate about the rankings. On sales productivity, however, there is no debate. Apple operates 29 stores in this country, and occupies only 203,000 ft.². Its 2013 gross sales of $1.47 billion give it an average sales productivity rate of over $7200 per square foot. Some of the more productive Apple stores in the country are estimated to have double that average productivity. Expect these numbers to rise even higher once the Apple Watch is sold through stores and not just online. As a point of reference, the top 10 retailers in CSCA S ranking of largest retailers average sales of just $585 per square foot. 2
5 Colliers 2014 Forecast versus Reality Actual 2014 retail sales by province ended up being very close to Colliers forecast numbers, as provided in the Fall edition of Colliers National Retail Report. Actual national retail sales volume of $ billion just barely eclipsed expected volume of $ billion. Projections for the Big 4 provinces, which account for 8 of Canada s national retail sales volume, were again very close to actual performance: > Ontario Actual 2014 sales for Canada s largest provincial retail market (roughly 3 of Canada s sales) came in at just under $176.2 billion exceeding CIC s projection ($175.4 billion) by less than 0.. Ontario placed third overall in terms of growth relative to > Quebec Canada s second largest market, accounting for 22% of national sales, recorded 2014 retail sales of $ billion less than 0. short of CIC s projected figure of $ billion. > Alberta Canada s third largest provincial retail market topped the year-over-year growth ranking once again in 2014, recording roughly $78.7 billion in sales nearly 7.7% above 2013 volume. This fell short of Colliers projected volume of roughly $79 billion by about 0.4%. > British Columbia Rounding out the Big 4, B.C. had a strong year, ringing up over $66.4 billion in retail sales and exceeding Colliers anticipated volume of $66.2 billion by just over 0.. Other standout performances worthy of mention are those of: > Manitoba Manitoba continues to place well on the national retail sales growth list, reaching fifth spot behind Saskatchewan and Ontario on sales approaching $18 billion (up 3.9% over 2013). > Saskatchewan Saskatchewan recorded another strong retail year on total retail sales of $19.1 billion - a 4. increase over 2013, though slightly below Colliers expectation of over 5.1%. Colliers' 2014 Projection vs. Actual Performance All Retail Categories Actual 2014 Accuracy of Projected CIC Projected Sales Performance Colliers' (Actual) Province Prediction Rank 2014 ($B) 2014 ($B) YOY% YOY% (+/-%) 1 (1) Alberta $ $ % 2 (2) British Columbia $ % $ % (4) Saskatchewan $ $ % 4 (3) Ontario $ $ % -0.47% 5 (5) Manitoba $ % $ % (6) New Brunswick $ % $ % 7 (7) Newfoundland & $ % $ % 0.11% 8 (8) Prince Edward Island $ % $ % 0.00% 9 (9) Quebec $ % $ % 0.29% 10 (10) Nova Scotia $ % $ % 0.4 Canada $ $ % -0.04% Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM database - Cat Colliers International Consulting 3
6 2015 Canadian Retail Performance to Date What a difference a year makes. With the WTI Oil price index taking a plunge in late 2014, the negative impact on consumer confidence and ultimately retail sales over the immediate term has been clear. The WTI topped $107 in June of 2014, but plunged to about $45 in mid March, Since then, prices have climbed and now stand at just over $60/barrel, but the impact on consumer confidence in part due to this dramatic drop in oil prices and related employment rationalizations over the immediate term is clear in the retail sales performance figures through March of this year. As noted in the chart below, while Alberta and Saskatchewan started the year off especially well through the 1st quarter of the period, the first quarter of 2015 reflects a dramatic shift in consumer behavior relative to last year, with Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the east coast provinces all recording significant, sales declines relative to the first quarter of With oil prices now in the low $60 range, it will be interesting to see how Q2 retail sales volumes adjust. 12% 8% 1Q Year over Year Retail Sales Growth by Province ( ) % 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% BRITISH COLUMBIA ONTARIO MANITOBA QUEBEC NEW BRUNSWICK PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN NOVA SCOTIA British Columbia, Meanwhile, has leapt out of the gate in 2015, with first quarter year-over-year sales growth approaching 8%. This upswing in retail sales activity matches Conference Board of Canada expectations of BC GDP growth of 2.6% for 2015, in part due to growth in exports spurred on by a strengthened U.S. economy. Ontario's first quarter year-over-year retail growth relative to 2014 is also strong, approaching 4%. A combination of higher U.S. growth, a lower Canadian dollar, and cost savings by consumers and businesses driven by lower oil prices, is expected to generate GDP growth of 2.6% in
7 Major Market Data by City The information in the following table is from a survey of expert opinions of Colliers brokers and research specialists in each market and is not represented as actual data. The information was collected to cater to the specific needs and interests of national chain retailers looking for a single source of information on lease rates, vacancy rates and recent trends for major markets across the country. The following are top-line takeaways derived from the chart below: > Victoria is becoming more of a tenant s market with all of these retail classes showing decreasing rental rates and increasing vacancy rates. > Calgary and Edmonton rental rates and vacancy rates have stabilized, possibly indicating a reversal of the landlordmarket prevalent in the last decade. > Ottawa and Montreal are also both indicating stability across the board after a reversal of recent trends. Retail Survey Market Data NET RENT Neighbourhood Regional Power Centre VACANCY RATE NET RENT VACANCY RATE NET RENT VACANCY RATE Victoria High $24 4. $38 6. $27 1.6% Low $16 0% $30 0% $20 0% Vancouver Kelowna* Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg Toronto Ottawa* Montreal Halifax High $30 $200 7% $20 Low $14 $28 $10 2% High $28 1 $110 $30 Low $22 $50 $20 0% High $32 1. $200 2% $80 2% Low $24 1. $60 1.8% $35 1% High $35 $35 $40 Low $22 1% $25 1% $25 1% High $36 $60 2 $34 Low $26 0% $38 $22 0% High $32 3. $50 4% $48 2% Low $24 1% $30 0% $26 0% High $32 6% $ % $35 4% Low $20 2% $40 1% $22 0% High $25 8% $130 $33 4% Low $12 $25 1% $18 2% High $25 $100 $35 Low $15 $50 0% $15 High $15 7% $18 $20 Low $10 $15 $17 High $25 8% $75 1.* $25 3.7%* Low $20 7.0% $70 1%* $18 3.4%* Notes: Neighbourhood shopping centre lease rates are for 2,000-square-foot, in-line unit with 10 to 12 foot ceilings and ground level entrance. Enclosed regional shopping centre lease rates are for a 4,000 square foot unit. Power centre lease rates are for a 5,000 to 10,000 square foot unit, which could be on a pad site, in a cluster of CRUs or in-line in a strip *Only 2014 data is available 5
8 Victoria Nanaimo Vancouver Kamloops Kelowna Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg Toronto Burlington Waterloo London Ottawa Montreal Quebec City Moncton Halifax This document/ has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and /or its licensor(s) All rights reserved. This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement. Colliers Macaulay Nicolls Brokerage Inc. (Canada).
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