Introducing income distribution to the Linder hypothesis

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1 Introducng ncome dstrbuton to the Lnder hypothess Helena Bohman Jönköpng Internatonal Busness School Jönköpng Unversty P.O. Box 1026 SE Jönköpng E-mal: Désrée Nlsson Jönköpng Internatonal Busness School Jönköpng Unversty P.O. Box 1026 SE Jönköpng E-mal: Abstract The Burenstam Lnder hypothess s a well establshed and emprcally tested hypothess. In ths study we ntroduce a new method of measurng the Lnder effect. Our approach focuses on the ncome dstrbuton wthn a country. We dentfy the common market between tradng partners by calculatng the ncome overlap. The sze of the common market s then related to the sze of the home market to form the new Lnder-varable. We also consder the scale effect of the common market. Results show a postve and sgnfcant effect of the Lnder varable on export ntensty. The scale effect of the Common Market s also postve. JEL Classfcaton codes: F10, D31

2 1. Introducton The Burenstam Lnder (abbrevated BL) hypothess s a well establshed part of nternatonal trade theory. The basc conjecture of the hypothess s that dfferences n preferences consttute a sgnfcant trade barrer between countres. Countres wth smlar demand structures wll trade more wth one another. Burenstam Lnder (1961, p94) wrote The more smlar the demand structure of the two countres the more ntensve potentally s the trade between these two countres. Burenstam Lnder suggested that per capta ncome can be used as a proxy for preferences. The hypothess can then be tested by comparng per capta ncome between tradng partners. The purpose of ths paper s to ntroduce a new method of assertng the Burenstam Lnder hypothess. We wll model the common market between two countres gven the countres structure of ncome dstrbuton. We beleve ths s a better way to test the Lnder hypothess than just usng each country s average ncome. The dea of ths paper can be expressed as follows. Gven Engel s law, we assume that consumer preferences wll be dependent on the level of ncome of the consumer. Consumers of a smlar level of ncome wll have smlar tastes. In the context of nternatonal trade, we wll expect countres to trade more ntensvely wth one another the more smlar ther ncome structures are. We wll try to capture ths by modelng the extent to whch ther ncomes overlaps. The Lnder varable that we ntroduce here dentfes the sze of the common market between the exportng and recevng country and relates t to the sze of the domestc market of the exporter. By the conjecture of the hypothess, the Lnder varable should be postvely correlated wth the export ntensty between country pars. Snce we know the sze of the common market we can also estmate the scale effect of the common market. Through the years, studes have examned the BL hypothess n several ways. One approach has been to dentfy BL goods and study the demand pattern for these goods. BL goods are defned as dfferentated wth hgh ncome elastcty. Francos and Kaplan (1996) fnd a demand shft towards BL goods as ncome ncreases. Arad and Hrsch (1981) reveal that mport of BL goods, compared to Heckscher-Ohln goods, orgnate from countres wth a narrower range of per capta ncome. The most 2

3 common approach of examnng the Lnder Hypothess has been to n a gravty model nclude a varable whch accounts for the dfference n per capta ncome between the suppler and demander of products. Arnon and Wenblatt (1998) confrm the Lnder hypothess and they fnd that developng countres also present evdence of a Burenstam Lnder effect. These studes consder the ncome dstrbuton between countres. The approach n ths study s dfferent snce we elaborate on the dstrbuton of ncome wthn a country. Dalgn et al (2004) also consder the allocaton of ncome wthn a country n a gravty model. They fnd that ncome nequalty has a postve effect on the demand for luxury products and a negatve effect on the demand for necesstes. The outlne of the paper s as follows. The followng secton outlne the theoretcal framework, whch ncludes a dscusson of the Lnder -varable. Subsequently, the methodology of calculatng the new varable s delneated and an example from the data s provded. Secton 4 provdes the emprcal results followed by conclusons and suggestons for further research. 3

4 2. Theory The Burenstam Lnder (1961) hypothess departs from the neoclasscal theores of trade where supply condtons are the most mportant factors of trade. BL rather argues that the structure of preferences s the major determnant of trade flows between two countres. BL argued for a home market effect n the selecton of whch products to export. Countres should export the goods for whch they have a large domestc market. Ths dea was further developed by Krugman (1980) to nclude transport cost and ncreasng returns to scale as renforcng aspects of the HME. In the presence of ncreasng returns to scale specalzaton s promoted and excess producton s exported (Helpman and Krugman, 1985). Trade between countres s decreasng wth dstance. Dstance does not smply nclude the geographcal remoteness or proxmty, the structure of preferences, nsttutons and communcaton n terms of language understandng are also mportant mpedments to trade. Thus t s better to talk about an economc dstance rather than just geographcal dstance. One way for companes to lower the cost of exportng would then be to export to countres wth a smlar preference structure as the domestc market. Ths wll reduce the transfer cost of accommodatng products to local preferences. Countres create trade lnks n order to reduce transfer costs (Johansson and Westn, 1994). The tradtonal way of testng the smlarty of demand structure s by comparng the average ncome of each country. The smaller the dfference s between the average ncomes of the respectve countres, the hgher the expected trade. Ths approach has the obvous advantage of beng easy to estmate, but one major crtcsm s that t gnores how ncome s dstrbuted wthn the country. It may very well happen that n two countres wth the same average ncome level, the preference structure of the market may be very dfferent f the dstrbuton of ncome s dvergng between the countres. There s an ncreasng body of lterature on how ncome dstrbuton affects demand patterns n a country (see e.g. Shlefer, Murphy and Vshny, 1989; Foellm and Zwemüller, 2005). As a consumer s ncome ncreases, there are at least three possble ways n whch we could expect to see ths translated nto ther consumpton patterns. Frst, you may substtute goods for other types of goods; most typcally the Engel effect. Engel s law states that as your ncome ncreases, the relatve consumpton of food decreases. Secondly, you can upgrade 4

5 your consumpton and consumer more sophstcated goods. Thrd, you could smply consume more of the same, n whch case there should be no effect of ncome dstrbuton on the overall demand structure n the economy. Accordng to the Lnder hypothess, the extent of nternatonal trade wll depend on how smlar the demand structures are. We assume consumers wth smlar ncome levels to have smlar consumpton bundles. Countres would therefore have a Lnder reason to trade to the extent that ther ncomes overlap. Ths s dfferent from the more commonly appled approach of usng dfference of average ncomes as a proxy, snce we wll try to consder not only the average but also the dstrbuton of ncome. We wll refer to ths by the common market between the two countres. Ths dea s llustrated n Fgure 1. Assume a country wth a dstrbuton functon of dsposable ncome of θ. Consder next the possblty of tradng wth country j, whch has a dstrbuton functon of θ j. The dstrbuton functons wll then tell us how large the common market between the two countres s. Densty GDP per capta (PPP adjusted) Dstrbuton country Dstrbuton country j Fgure 1. An llustraton of the Common Market Approach The common market s thus the area below the lowest of the dstrbuton functons, CM = mn{ θ ( y), θ ( y) }dy (1) 0 j 5

6 In other words, as long as there s a person wth a correspondng ncome n the country n queston, there should be a Lnder ratonale for trade between the countres. Ths estmaton method captures demand patterns that would not be present n any study usng averages. For example, t s possble to magne two countres wth smlar average ncomes but who, gven dfferent dstrbutons of ncome, show very dfferent consumpton patterns. On the other hand, countres wth dfferent average levels of ncome could stll have groups of the populatons who overlap n ther ncome; the upper class n a poor country could have consumpton patterns more smlar to the average consumer n a rch country than to the average ctzen of ther own country. 3. Method: The common market approach In order to estmate each country s dstrbuton functon, we use decles of dsposable ncome from World Income Inequalty Database.(200x) Rather than assumng equalty wthn decles, we estmate these dstrbutons usng a Gaussan kernel smoothng procedure. Thereby we can generate observatons at a much fner level. Ths s smlar to the technque appled by Sala--Martn (2006). A nce feature of ths process s that we do not need to make any assumptons of the overall dstrbuton and force t n to a functon. 1 Snce we need to match ncome levels across countres we need to specfy the ncomes at whch we want densty estmates. We decded to estmate ntervals of US$100 between 0 and n order to capture the relevant spectra of ncomes, so n other words we have 1500 observatons for each country. It s then possble to match the subgroups of populatons wthn a country to that of other countres, and then to calculate the common market. 1 In order to see f we could fnd any functon that would realstcally ft the data, we used the method by Stuart and Ord (1994) on determnng functons pertanng to the Pearson famly of dstrbuton. Our calculatons suggested that our data ft none of theses functons and we therefore want to avod forcng the data nto an overall functon. 6

7 3.1 What do the common markets look lke? Before estmatng the effects n standard regresson analyss, we wll have a closer look at the calculated Lnder varables. One of our nterests s to see how dfferent our fndngs are from the standard approach of average ncome. We do not argue that the common market approach has to be very dfferent from the standard approach; there s a possblty that the ncome effect outweghs the dstrbuton effect. That s, the average ncome could be a good proxy to estmate the Lnder hypothess. However, f the dstrbuton s strong enough, t would mply that the average ncome s not a good enough proxy n order to capture the Lnder effect. We could llustrate data wth an example from the data. Fgure 2 shows the example of Venezuela and Romana, two countres wth smlar levels of per capta ncome. 2 However, whereas Romana have a relatvely homogenous group of consumers (as depcted by the concentraton of ncomes to a relatvely narrow range of ncomes), Venezuela seems to have a much more heterogeneous consumer group. As a result, the common market as we have defned t s very small despte ther smlarty n terms of per capta ncome. Densty 0,01,02,03,04, GDP per capta (PPP adjusted) Romana Venezuela Fgure 2. The common market for Hungary and Panama Our estmatons lead us to two types of Lnder varables. Frst of all, we are nterested n how large the common market s n relaton to the home market. Secondly, standard trade models nclude some sort of sze measure, often the total populaton or GDP, as 2 In our data, Romana has a PPP adjusted GDP per capta of $US 5632 whereas the correspondng fgure for Venezuela s $US

8 proxes for scale economes. We wll try to model scale economes here as well, but snce our nterest s to test the Lnder hypothess, we wll use the sze of the common market as an explanatory varable. The Lnder hypothess s thus ncluded by usng the followng varables: CM Lnder = (2) M CM = 2* mn{ θ ( y), θ ( y) }dy (3) 0 j Furthermore, we suggest that the Lnder hypothess allows for two dfferent types of scale economes. Frst, f we suppose that t s the common market that s the relevant market for determnng exports, ths should also be the relevant market n terms of scale economes (defned n equaton 3). Secondly f we relax the Lnder hypothess and say that the rest of the market may also be mportant, we should nclude also ths effect n the model. We do not clam that equal preferences s the only reason for countres to trade; rather we beleve t could be one reason n addton to resourcebased explanatons. Because of ths, we wll also add the absolute sze of the rest of the market and thereby control for scale effects outsde those caught n the Lnder market approxmaton. The model wll therefore nclude two proxes for scale economes; one Lnder market or common market (CM) varable, and one varable for the rest of the market (RoM). Equaton 5 ncludes the addtonal varable ( RoM ) that captures the rest of the market. 8

9 Descrpton of varable characterstcs Densty Dependent varable: Export share 0,2,4,6,8 1 Export share Densty 0,05,1,15 Independent varable: Common market Common market Independent varable: Lnder varable Independent varable: Dstance Densty ,2,4,6,8 1 Lnder varable Densty 0,05,1,15, Dstance The dependent varable n our model s the share of export from country to country j. Ths varable dsplays a lognormal dstrbuton. The same apples to the common market varable. The smlarty n dstrbuton motvates the same transformaton of the varable. By logartmzng the dependent varable we can use OLS to estmate the model. The man varable of nterest s the Lnder varable. It seems to dsplay a bpolar dstrbuton. The two ends of the dstrbuton show the extremes where the one close to zero contans observaton where the common market (cm) consttutes a very small part of the domestc market. At the opposte end we encounter observatons where the sze of the common market s the same as the domestc one. The fndng that a lot of countres have values of 1 n ther trade s not surprsng; rather t s a natural result of small countres tradng wth larger economes. Take the example of Sweden tradng wth the US. Gven that Sweden has a very small populaton we would expect to fnd a perfect match of Sweden nsde the US economy. Lookng from the US perspectve, the match wth Sweden would be very low smply because the economy s so much larger. The dstance varable dsplays a smlar pattern to the 9

10 Lnder varable. The smlarty between the two varables motvates a smlar treatment n the model. 10

11 3.2 Model formulaton The prevously defned varables, Lnder and CM are ncluded n a gravty model. In addton to these new varables we complement the model wth a few control varables. Equaton 4 presents the smplest model ln( x ) α + β1 Lnder + β 2 ln( CM CM j ) + β 4 = Dst (4) where the dependent varable, x, sgnfes the export ntensty between country and j, Lnder s the sze of the common market n relaton to the sze of the domestc market. CM measures the market sze as nterpreted from the Lnder hypothess. The Lnder common market s based upon consumers havng the same ncome. The only control varable ncluded s the dstance ( Dst ) between countres and j. We use dstance as measured between the captals or, n the cases where there s another cty whch s more mportant than the captal, we use the most mportant cty n the country. Equaton 4, whereα = 1 α, s also estmated by accountng for the dfferent propenstes to trade for each of the exportng countres n a fxed effect model. ln( x ) = α + β1 Lnder + β 2 ln( CM CM j j ) + β 3 ln( RoM RoM j j ) + β 4 Dst (5) Also equaton 5 s estmated wth a fxed effect. Table 1 provdes the defntons of varables n equaton 4 and 5 and the statstcal sources. 11

12 Table 1. Defnton of varables and statstcal sources Varable Defnton X Exports from country to country j as a proporton of total exports x = X from country. Source: Comtrade Lnder Common market between countres and j as defned by 1.1, dvded by the total populaton n country. Source: WIID and WDI CM Common market between countres and j as defned by 1.1, Expressed n terms of mllons of people. Source: WIID and WDI RoM Populaton outsde of the common market of the two countres; Total Populaton - CM Dstance Dstance between most mportant ctes n countres and j. Expressed n terms of 1000 klometers. 12

13 4. Estmatng trade models Ths study has ntroduced two new varables that am to capture the Lnder hypothess. Frst, the Lnder varable, whch measures the sze of the common market between two trade partners n relaton to the exportng country domestc market, put n relaton to the export ntensty between the same country par seek to capture the conjecture of the Lnder hypothess. We expect a postve coeffcent for the Lnder varable. The extent of sharng the same preference structure should have a postve effect on the export ntensty between two tradng partners. The second varable ntroduced measures the sze of the common varable, n order to capture the scale economes of the common market. As was prevously mentoned, the Lnder reason of tradng s not the only motve for trade flows. Scale economes are a hghly contrbutng factor of the exchange between countres. Table 2 presents the results of equaton 4 and 5, where specfcaton () and (v) represents the fxed effect models. Table 2 Pooled and fxed effect (Dependent varable: lnexportshare) Equaton 4 Equaton 5 () () Fxed () (v)fxed Ln(CM) (16.24)*** (9.31)*** (0.42) (5.19)*** Ln(RoM) (20.39)*** (21.58)*** Lnder (9.63)*** (8.17)*** (16.56)*** (3.26)*** Dstance (22.88)*** (27.68)*** (27.53)*** (34.83)*** Constant (62.19)*** (55.67)*** (26.29)*** (26.41)*** Observatons R-squared Robust t statstcs n parentheses *** sgnfcant at 1% The estmated coeffcent of our new Lnder varable turns out as expected n all of the regresson models. The postve and sgnfcant coeffcent ndcates that the degree of common preference structure has a postve mpact on the export ntensty. Ths s entrely n lne wth the Burenstam Lnder conjecture. The sze of the scale effect for the common market s also postve and sgnfcant. Dstance has a negatve effect on export flows n all specfcatons. 13

14 Introducng the rest of the market as an addtonal ndependent varable changes the results to some extent. In specfcaton () the estmated parameter for the RoM turns out sgnfcant and postve, whch s accordng to expectatons. However, the coeffcent for the common market s now nsgnfcant. In the fxed effect specfcaton of equaton 5, all coeffcents return to beng sgnfcant and wth the expected sgn. The coeffcent for the Lnder varable s n the fxed effect model consderably lower than n prevous fndngs. 4.1 Applyng the model to ndvdual countres The number of observatons allows us to run separate regressons on each country and we can thereby try to fnd patterns among the countres. We dvde the sample accordng to exportng country, and we can thus study the effects on export for each country n the sample. Table 3 presents the results from the ndvdual OLS estmates from whch we could obtan sgnfcant results. When runnng the formulated model separately for each exportng country we fnd that 19 of the 45 countres ncluded n the study dsplay a sgnfcant coeffcent. Table 3. Regresson results for ndvdual countres Countres wth sgnfcant effect of the Lnder varable Argentna, Belarus, Belgum, Croata, Czech Republc, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russan Federaton, Slovak Republc, Slovena *Include estmates for the common markets* As the table above shows, t seems that the Lnder hypothess s prmarly domnant n developng and transton economes. Belgum, the Netherlands and Norway are the most notable exceptons to ths fndng. It s however beyond the scope of ths study to examne ths relatonshp n depth. 14

15 5. Conclusons In ths paper, we have suggested a new way to test and measure the Lnder hypothess. Rather than just usng the dfference n average ncome between tradng countres, we model the relevant markets usng a method that ncludes the dstrbuton of ncome n the countres. We ncluded two dfferent varables n order to take the Lnder hypothess nto account, both of whch are based on our concept of what consttutes a common market. The frst varable measures the common market n relaton to the total home market, whereas the second one measures the absolute sze of the market. In order to contrast ths to tradtonal gravty model estmatons, we also nclude a varable for the rest of the market. We fnd a postve and sgnfcant effect of the Lnder varables. In the case of the relatve market varable (Lnder), the fndngs are postve and sgnfcant for all estmates. The absolute sze varable s postve and sgnfcant n all but one estmate, for whch t turns out nsgnfcant. Our fndngs also fnd a sgnfcant result of the rest of the market. We nterpret our results as a support of the Lnder hypothess and suggest ths s a complementary result to other explanatory factors. Although the body of lterature concernng ncome dstrbuton as an explanatory factor to trade and trade structure s steadly ncreasng, the topc s stll very much n ts nfancy. Our study was based on total trade, but t seems very plausble that the Lnder effect should be more promnent for certan types of goods. One such example s the case of dfferentated goods, for whch varety s very central to the consumer. Another natural extenson of ths paper s to focus on dfferent country characterstcs. Our study ndcates that the effect s more promnent among developng countres, but more research s needed before any fnal concluson should be made. 15

16 References Arnon A and Wenblatt J, (1998), Lnder s hypothess revsted: ncome smlarty effects for low ncome countres, Appled Economc Letters, vol. 5, Arad R W and Hrsch, S (1981), Determnaton of trade flows and choce of trade partners: Reconclng the Heckscher-Ohln and the Burenstam Lnder Models of nternatonal trade, Weltwrtschaftlches Archv, 117(2), Burenstam Lnder S, (1961), An Essay on Trade and Transformaton, Almqvst & Wksell, Stockholm Cep, Centre d Etudes Prospectves et d Informaton Internatonal, Blateral Dstance Measures. Comtrade, Unted Natons Dalgn, D Mtra and V Trndade (2004), Inequalty, non-homothetc preferences, and Trade: a gravty approach, NBER workng paper, No Foellm, Reto & Zwemüller, Josef, Income dstrbuton and demand nduced nnovatons, CEPR Dscusson Papers, 4985 Francos and Kaplan (1996), Aggregate demand shfts, ncome dstrbuton, and the Lnder hypothess, Revew of Economcs and Statstcs 78, Johansson B and Westn L, (1994), Affntes and frctons of trade networks, The Annals of Regonal Scence, No 28, pp McPherson, M (2001), Internatonal Trade and Developng Countres: An Emprcal Investgaton of the Lnder Hypothess," wth Mchael R. Redfearn and Marge A. Teslau, Appled Economcs, vol. 33, no. 5 (Aprl), pp

17 McPherson, M (2000) "A Re-Examnaton of the Lnder Hypothess: A Random Effects Tobt Approach," wth Mchael R. Redfearn and Marge A. Teslau, The Internatonal Economc Journal, vol. 14, no. 3 (Autumn). Sala--Martn, X (2006), The World Dstrbuton of Income: Fallng Poverty and Convergence, Perod., Quarterly Journal of Economcs, Vol. 121, No Shlefer, A, K Murphy and R Vshny (1989), Income Dstrbuton, Market Sze and Industralzaton, Quarterly Journal of Economcs, Aug. Stuart, Alan and Keth Ord (1994), Kendall s Advanced Theory of Statstcs, Vol.1 Dstrbuton Theory, 6 th Edton World Development Indcators, (2005) World Income Inequalty Database V 2.0a June

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