Press Conference. Analysis of Competitors Strategies, Market/ Application and Innovation System of Chinese Machine Tool Industry.

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1 THE LOCAL EXPERTS Press Conference Analysis of Competitors Strategies, Market/ Application and Innovation System of Chinese Machine Tool Industry on behalf of IMPULS-Stiftung of VDMA and VDW September 16 th, 2013 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/1

2 In global context, China positions as both largest production hub and by far as largest consumption market with 14.7 bln EUR and 23.9 bln EUR respectively Global machine tool markets Global machine tool production (in bln EUR) Global machine tool consumption 2012 (in bln EUR) Growth YoY +6% +8% +10% +7% +4% Growth YoY +7% +29% +9% -2% -4% 23,9 22,2 14,7 13,9 14,2 13, ,6 9, ,1 4,4 4,3 4, ,8 5,3 5,3 5,8 5 4,9 3,8 3,6 China Japan Germany South Korea Italy China USA Japan Germany South Korea Source: VDW 2 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/2

3 and also represents Germany s most important export destination with approx. 30% in 2012 future market dynamics in China critical for German industry Top 10 German export destinations Machine tool exports (excl. parts, accessories) (in mio EUR) Share on total in % 10% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2,142 2, China USA Russia France UK Czech Republic Austria Italy India Poland Source: VDW 3 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/3

4 Therefore, objectives of this study cover industry analysis, governmental policy, competitors, suppliers and customers, and their impacts on German industry Objectives of machine tool industry study 2013 Key study target Analysis of strategic roadmap of Chinese and Asian machine tool companies and impacts on German industry 1 China market investigation also covering the relevance of the industry and technological environment in global context Market- / Tech trend analysis 2 Understanding the role of the Chinese government to promote, fund and finance machine tool technology and innovation activities Understanding governmental influence Competitor s strategies of major companies in selected machine tool sectors/ technologies to understand future paths Machine tool value chain landscape with focus on key components (control and drive, spindle, guide way and ball screw) suppliers and their competing strategies Development of major application industries/ customers in China and their machine tools purchasing requirements Analysis of consequences for German companies and action demand resulting thereof Insights into major Chinese and Asian Competitors Key component value chain landscape Procurement by main applications/ customers Impacts on German industry Source: VDW, EAC 4 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/4

5 Chinese component manufacturers mainly focus on domestic market, and their technology bottleneck lies in innovation system, personnel and key components Summary key component supply in China 1. Large machine tool manufacturers, e.g. Shenyang, Dalian, Tianshui Spark and Qinchuan, have integrated production of machine tools and key components 2. Local component manufacturers quite focus on domestic market, by good cooperation with domestic machine tool producers 3. Innovation system, personnel and key components are the main technology bottleneck for Chinese component manufacturers 4. Domestic growth, service, cost reduction and technology upgrade are being prioritized by Chinese component manufacturers Source: EAC research 5 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/5

6 In future, cost reduction, improvement of production efficiency and technology upgrade are being prioritized by Chinese component manufacturers Strategic roadmap Chinese component suppliers Technology R&D Process Sales/ service Internationalization Majority of Chinese suppliers see large gaps to foreign competitors, especially quality and stability not accepted by highend machine tool customers Innovation system, personnel and key components are the main technology bottleneck for Chinese component manufacturers Chinese key component competitors realize the importance of the technical competence and they are actively improving own R&D capability Chinese competitors have also established good technical cooperation with universities and suppliers, but with very few external technical expert Assembling, quality control and designing are the top 3 critical processes impacting the performance of Chinese components Lack of qualified workers has become one of the obvious challenges for Chinese suppliers Chinese competitors are able to produce most components, while some key components have to be imported to ensure the overall performance Chinese companies have good service capabilities within China, but nearly no direct service abroad Usually Chinese competitors provide 1-year s warranty, hours onside service for local customers Most Chinese competitors still target at domestic market Chinese component competitors are opportunistic in export, and rely on overseas distributors for sales and service Southeast Asia and India with good potential Chinese component competitors have nearly no interest in overseas M&A in the short- or long-run Source: EAC 6 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/6

7 While technology advantages of German machine tools are acknowledged, endusers see improvement potentials in service compared to Chinese competitors Service perception of machine tool users Expected time of service team to arrive on site within China n=12 92% 8% 0% 0% < 24hrs < 48 hrs < 72 hrs < 1 weeks Service features of Chinese machine tool players Chinese competitors usually have service centers or distributors covering Mainland China Chinese companies usually would arrive on site within hours even in holidays 1-2 year quality warranty and life long after-sales service Chinese companies are not targeting high margins for their services; Relatively lower cost for repairing and spare parts Service perceived as value adding for the customer not as additional source of profit Comment by machine tool users Performance and accuracy of locally made machine tools are similar to those of imported, while their long-term reliability and accuracy to be improved Direct purchase from German machine tool manufacturer, may cause issues in after service, transport, components supply,... When there are some breakdowns and we ask German suppliers to send technical engineers to check and fix problems, they charge a lot. Service costs are expensive compared to local suppliers Lead-time of replacing some key spare parts is long. Those parts need to be delivered from overseas. In peak season of our production schedule, that really hurts Source: EAC research Chinese machine tool users see improvement potential of German machine tool service concept in terms of service speed and charge and time of component supply benchmark Chinese and Asian players 7 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/7

8 Technology upgrade is highly emphasized by Chinese machine tool players to close the gap to foreign competitors, future key growth area is still domestic market Summary: Strategy of Chinese machine tool competitors Diversification strategy Cost reduction strategy Product/ technology upgrades EAC strategy assessment: Chinese machine tool competitors Strategy reliant on government policies/ funding Service excellence strategy Domestic growth strategy International growth strategy through M&A International organic growth strategy Key going-forward strategies Product/ technology upgrade: technology upgrade is being highly emphasized as major strategy to compete against leading foreign players Technology gap to foreign players expected to diminish, particularly in turning/ lathe machines - for machining centers wide gap will remain Cost reduction is on the agenda but most key components still imported, esp. for high-end machines, to ensure long-term accuracy, reliability and stability Diversification: Large players produce not only machine tools, but also components Future growth strategy still highly focusing on domestic market: internationally, organic growth is targeted, but with lower priority Service excellence: Chinese competitors are adding value through service as a strategy for competitive advantage Government policy: Highly relying on government support with various favorable policies and huge subsidies Source: EAC research 5.0 Strong focus 1.0 Limited focus 8 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/8

9 Investigated key application segments will remain as most important demand drivers for high-end machine tools but slowing growth in some sectors Demand driving Industries Automotive (units) Machinery (value) Shipbuilding (DWT) Power generation (kw) Aerospace/ aviation (value) Summary development of demand driving industries CAGR 2007/11 CAGR 2011/15(e) CAGR delta +20% +10% -10% +29% +14% -15% -22% -17% +5% +10% +8% -2% +21% +32% +11% Railway (km) +9% +6% -3% M/T share 2011 M/T share 2015 ~40% ~35% ~20% ~25% ~8% ~7% ~8% ~6% ~7% ~10% ~6% ~5% Industry insights Automotive, machinery and aerospace will remain key application industries for high-end imported machine tools in the future Stable growth of power generation because of government support Shipbuilding industry starts recovery slowly due to economy recession and overcapacity issue Overall demand of railway industry likely to slow down in future years Aerospace is the major machine tool application area with increasing growth rate until 2015 and shipbuilding market starting recovery - growth in other key applications expected to slow down Source: EAC research, industry experts 9 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/9

10 Demand from end-user industries will lead to future consumption between 30.6 to 37.6 bln EUR by 2017 and shows undisputed importance for German industry Future market outlook machine tool 2017 (bln EUR) Scenario I worst case Moderate production growth (+5% p.a.) Increasing exports +15% p.a. vs. slowing imports +7% p.a. Adjustment of local production and exports by low-end machinery by 30% Scenario II base case Current and future machine tool consumption by application industries Future growth of application industry and machine tool demand, but consideration of increasing productivity Scenario III best case Solid production growth (+7% p.a.) Increasing exports +15% p.a. and import growth +10% p.a. Only 20% adjustment local production and exports due to quality shift +5%p.a %p.a %p.a Note: Static exchange rate EUR/ RMB based on 2012, no EUR appreciation/ depreciation effects considered Source: VDW, EAC research VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/10

11 Chinese government is supporting sustainable development and has issued relevant policies and guidance aiming to steer the machine tool industry Chinese government policies Source: EAC Machine tool industry is relevant to developing key industries, urbanization and clean-tech in the 12 th FYP with strong government support Chinese Government still plays an important role in innovation process through definition, guidance and implementation of industry and innovation related policies In recent years China government has issued a series of relevant policies and guidance aiming to support the machine tool industry, and the 12 th FYP of machine tool industry focuses on transforming China from a large volume manufacturing hub to a competent technology one Since 2009, MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) has issued concrete policies to support and subsidize the Chinese companies to develop high-end machine tools - High-end NC machine tool and basic manufacturing equipment Government subsidies up to 30% of total project investment, in the form of award, loan-transfer, subsidized loan interest and tax refund, etc.. Shenyang Machine Tool, as the biggest manufacturer, has received huge amount of subsidies nearly EUR 20 mio during Besides supporting policies issued by central government, there are also many specified regulations released by different levels of governments according to local situations, e.g. Liaoning Province SOEs receive more government subsidies than private companies, while the amount of subsidies allocated to private enterprises is limited ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) between Mainland China and Taiwan consolidated Taiwan players competitiveness in Chinese machine tool market, especially in lowand mid-end market and component markets 11 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/11

12 Such strong government support will result in continuous technology upgrade in the Chinese machine tool industry, including components Relevance of competitiveness and 12th FYP Competitiveness 5 /+ ++ Market share Market segment focus Upgrade ambition R&D and innovation capability Process quality Technology roadmap Locally made components have established customer base and market position Well Localized for mid- and low-end machine tools Government support Machine tool component Machine tool Increasing competitiveness, esp. ambitious in technology upgrade High-end Machine Tools Very strong government support Key Industry and huge amount of Subsidies +/ Relevance 12 th FYP Chinese governmental policy is targeting national industrial regulation, technology upgrade and quality improvement Source: EAC research 12 VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/12

13 High action demand for optimizing service, localizing R&D and application support to keep sustainable and profitable growth for German companies in China Action demand for German industry as result R&D Supply chain Production Sales Service Level of action demand Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High China Appropriately localize R&D and engineering of machines with narrow technology gap Application support for local customers Enhance cooperation with strategic suppliers Optimize current supplier base Feasibility of production in China Enter mass market by localfor-local production Keep import strategy for premium segment Maintain highend brand image - German engineering Better understand local demand Enhance sales/ distribution network to access emerging customers Increase local service presence Application centers Trained distributors Improve flexibility and communication with customers Benchmark against Japanese competitors International Source: EAC research For high-end segment, maintain premium positioning as global technology and innovation leader Integration of China into global supply chain local for global supply Ensure competitiveness in productivity in international production sites to supply global market 13 Enhance global sales network Expansion in emerging markets Increase global service presence Strengthen support from Germany speed/ direct communication with HQ VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/13

14 THE LOCAL EXPERTS EAC- Euro Asia Consulting PartG Heimeranstrasse Munich / Germany Phone: Fax: eac-muc@eac-consulting.de EAC- Euro Asia Consulting Rep. Office Sunyoung Centre, Rm Jiangsu Road Shanghai / China Phone: Fax: eac-sha@eac-consulting.de Changzhou Euro Asia Consulting Co., Ltd. Bldg No. 2, Tenglong Road, Wujin Economic Development Zone Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, P.R. of China Phone: Fax: eac-sha@eac-consulting.de EAC- Euro Asia Consulting Pvt. Ltd , Peninsula Plaza A/ 16, Veera Industrial Estate Off New Link Road, Andheri (West) Mumbai / India Phone: Fax: eac-mum@eac-consulting.de VDW Präsentation EMO-PK 16Sep2013/14

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