Performance of Industry Shale Plays. Rob Sutton February 23, 2010
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1 Performance of Industry Shale Plays Rob Sutton February 23, 21
2 U.S. Shale Plays Swift Bakken Antrim Nortonville Paradox Gallup New Albany Brown Coffee Devonian Marcellus Ohio Queenston Abo Waddell Barnett Woodford Bossier Hanesville Fayetteville Source: IHS MS Streets & Trips 2
3 U.S. Gas Well Production U.S. Historical Gas Well Facts 7, Production 7 Avg Daily Production, MMCFD 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Estimated Critical Rate Well Count Avg Well Rate 18,4 wells/year Well Count, 's or Avg Gas Rate, MCFD/Well Source - EIA
4 Shale Play Well Count Shale Plays 3, Abo 25, Antrim Barnett Bass Island 2, Bossier Brown Well Count 15, 1, Coffee Devonian Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus New Albany Ohio 5, Queenston Woodford 4 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7
5 Shale Play Production Shale Plays Gas Rate, MMCFD 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, Abo Antrim Barnett Bass Island Bossier Brown Coffee Devonian Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus New Albany 15% of U.S. Gas Well Production from Shale Wells 2, 1, Ohio Queenston Woodford 5 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9
6 Well Production Rate Distribution All Wells U.S. Gas Well Rate Distribution.7 Fraction of Total Marginal Well 75 MCFD Liquid Loading 3 MCFD Source: HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
7 Well Production Rate Distribution Changes with Time U.S. Gas Well Rate Distribution Fraction of Total Liquid Loading 3 MCFD Source: HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
8 Well Production Rate Distribution Current Year Wells and All Wells All Wells 26 Wells in 26 U.S. Gas Well Rate Distribution Fraction of Total Liquid Loading 3 MCFD Source: HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
9 Well Production Rate Distribution Current Year Wells and All Wells All Wells 26 Wells in Wells in Wells in 28 U.S. Gas Well Rate Distribution Fraction of Total Liquid Loading 3 MCFD Source: HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
10 Rate Distribution Shale Play Gas Rate Distribution Fraction of Total Abo Antrim Barnett all Bass Island Bossier Brow n Coffee Devonian Fayetteville Gallup Haynesville Marcellus New Albany Ohio Queenston Sw ift Woodford Total US.5 < P5 < 367 MCFD Gas Rate, MCFD
11 Distribution of Data Sources 9, 8, 7, 6, Well Count Wells 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 11 Barnett (horiz) Barnett ( vert) Abo Antrim Bossier Brown Coffee Devonian Fayetteville Gallup Haynesville Marcellus New Albany Ohio Queenston Woodford
12 Shale Plays - Average Age of Wells 25 Average Age of Wells in IP Data Set 2 Years Barnett (horiz) Barnett ( vert) Abo Antrim Bossier Brown Coffee Devonian Fayetteville Gallup Haynesville Marcellus New Albany Ohio Queenston Woodford
13 Barnett Shale Rate Distribution Barnett Shale Well Rate Distribution All Wells.8 Fraction of Total Source - HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
14 Barnett Shale Well Performance Barnett Shale 1, Maximum Well Rate Average Well Rate Gas Rate, MCFD 1, Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun- Jun-1 Jun-2 Jun-3 Jun-4 Jun-5 Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9
15 Barnett Shale IP Changes with Time Barnett Shale Initial Well Performance 1, Horizontal Vertical 1, 3 Day Well IP, MCFD Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8
16 Barnett Shale Rate Distribution Barnett Shale Well Rate Distribution Fraction of Total All Wells 26 All Wells 27 All Wells 28 All Wells 16 Source - HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
17 Barnett Shale Rate Distribution Horizontal & Vertical Wells Barnett Shale Well Rate Distribution All Wells 28 All Vertical Wells 28 All Horizontal Wells Fraction of Total Source - HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
18 Barnett Shale Rate Distribution New Wells & Field Average Barnett Shale Well Rate Distribution All Wells 26 Wells in 26.8 Fraction of Total Source - HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
19 Barnett Shale Rate Distribution New Wells & Field Average Barnett Shale Well Rate Distribution Fraction of Total All Wells 26 Wells in Wells in Wells in Source - HDPI Gas Rate, MCFD
20 Barnett Shale Well Count Barnett Shale 12, 29 Active Well Count 1, 8, 6, 4, , /1/92 6/1/93 6/1/94 6/1/95 6/1/96 6/1/97 6/1/98 6/1/99 6/1/ 6/1/1 6/1/2 6/1/3 6/1/4 6/1/5 6/1/6 6/1/7 6/1/8 6/1/9
21 Barnett Shale News Wells Added Annually 3, Barnett Shale - Annual New Wells 2,5 2, Well Count 1,5 1,
22 Barnett Shale Monthly Well Count Additions Barnett Monthly Changes To Well Count 3 Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price & U.S. Drilling Rig Count $14. Price 3,5 $12. US Rigs 3, 25 $1. 2,5 2 $/MMBtu $8. $6. 2, 1,5 Rig Count Total Wells 15 $4. $2. $. 1-Jan-8 1-Jan-9 1-Jan-1 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
23 Barnett Shale Gas Production Barnett Shale Gas Rate, MMCFD 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, /1/92 6/1/93 6/1/94 6/1/95 6/1/96 6/1/97 6/1/98 6/1/99 6/1/ 6/1/1 6/1/2 6/1/3 6/1/4 6/1/5 6/1/6 6/1/7 6/1/8 6/1/9
24 Barnett Shale Gas Production Barnett Shale 6, 5, Peak Rate?? Gas Rate, MMCFD 4, 3, 2, 1, 6/1/6 8/1/ /1/6 12/1/6 2/1/7 4/1/7 6/1/7 8/1/7 1/1/7 12/1/7 2/1/8 4/1/8 6/1/8 8/1/8 1/1/8 12/1/8 2/1/9 4/1/9 6/1/9
25 Shale Play 3 Day Well IP 26
26 Shale Play Average Well IP 1, Average 3 Day Well IP Gas Production Rate, MCFD 1, Haynesville Woodford Barnett (horiz) Fayetteville Bossier Barnett ( vert) Abo Gallup Antrim Queenston Devonian Marcellus Brown New Albany Ohio Coffee
27 Rate Distribution 3 Day IP Shale Play Well 3 Day IP Distribution 1..9 All Data 28 Wells Fraction of Total < P5 < 1567 MCFD Gas Production Rate, MCFD
28 Wells Used in 28 IP Distribution 1, Well Count used for 28 IP Distribution 1, Wells Barnett (horiz) Barnett ( vert) Abo Antrim Bossier Brown Coffee Devonian Fayetteville Gallup Haynesville Marcellus New Albany Ohio Queenston Woodford
29 3 Day IP Rate Distribution - Comparison Limited Available Data 3
30 Observations Gas production from shale reservoirs 15% of U.S. gas production from gas wells The Barnett Shale is currently the largest shale play Currently 5 BCFD from 11,2 wells 9% of U.S. gas production from gas wells 1% of new gas wells in US in 28 P5 gas rate from shales ranges.5-3,67 MCFD Use 3 Day Well IP Shale well IP s have increased since 24 as a result of new plays, drilling and completion technology Rates in excess of 1 MMCFD are reported (less than 1% of 28 wells) Need to examine IP rate distributions to determine likely outcome Current P5 rate is approximately 1.5 MMCFD Check distribution for specific play and well type for likely outcome 31
31 Copyright Rights to this presentation are owned by the company(ies) and/or author(s) listed on the title page. By submitting this presentation to the Gas Well Deliquification Workshop, they grant to the Workshop, the Artificial Lift Research and Development Council (ALRDC), and the Southwestern Petroleum Short Course (SWPSC), rights to: Display the presentation at the Workshop. Place it on the web site, with access to the site to be as directed by the Workshop Steering Committee. Place it on a CD for distribution and/or sale as directed by the Workshop Steering Committee. Other uses of this presentation are prohibited without the expressed written permission of the company(ies) and/or author(s) who own it and the Workshop Steering Committee. Includes data supplied by IHS Inc. and HDPI; Copyright (21) all rights reserved.
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