Hospitality trends. Highlights from the annual Chicago Hospitality Sector Roundtable

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1 Hospitality trends Highlights from the annual Chicago Hospitality Sector Roundtable

2 2

3 About this report EY surveyed Hospitality Sector leaders in the Chicago, Illinois, metro area and the greater Midwest and invited these individuals to a roundtable on 19 October 16 to discuss the survey results and industry trends. Our survey and discussions focused on the economy, transactions, capital markets, brands, technology, millennials and the trends affecting the broader US hotel market. All respondent and participant names are confidential, and their responses were used only in combination with others to maintain their anonymity. EY would like to thank the individuals who took the time to complete the survey and attended EY s Chicago Hospitality Sector Roundtable. If you have questions about this survey or the Chicago Hospitality Sector Roundtable, please contact Brett M. Johnson at brett.johnson@ey.com, Mark Molepske at mark.molepske@ey.com or Judd Stensrud at judd.stensrud@ey.com. Hospitality trends 16 3

4 The economy More than half of the survey participants believe we are at the peak of the cycle, while the remaining 46% believe the peak is still one to two years away. The consensus was that while the market is slowing down, there still are pockets with strong fundamentals that are market specific. In Chicago, major concerns include new supply and property taxes. How many years away from peak of the cycle? The US economy experienced steady gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.5% for the third quarter of 16, and the advance estimate forecasts that the economy experienced growth of 1.9% for the fourth quarter of Based on the survey responses, the forecast was slightly more pessimistic, with 65% anticipating growth between 1.% and 2.%. Anticipated GDP growth for the balance of % 8% 27% Less than 1% 1% 2% 4 2% 2.5% 3 65% More than 2.5% 1 23% 23% % % The survey respondents forecast positive revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth, with 81% of respondents expecting RevPAR growth to be less than 4.% for calendar year 17. The average growth in RevPAR between 1988 and 15 was 3.3%, but during the past three years, RevPAR growth has increased by more than 5.2%. In the US, RevPAR has a.47 correlation with nominal GDP. RevPAR expectations 3 years 2 years 1 year At peak Unsure or not relevant 19% Less than 4% Post-election pulse Sentiment following the November 16 US presidential election is slightly more optimistic, with more survey respondents believing we are one to two years from the peak. 81% 4% 5% 5% 6% More than 6% Post-election pulse Survey respondents revealed increased optimism in RevPar growth for 17, with an additional 6% of respondents anticipating 4.% to 5.% RevPAR growth this year. 1 GDP Increases in Fourth Quarter, Bureau of Economic Analysis news release, 27 January 17 4

5 Transactions Survey respondents feel confident that 17 will be better than 16 for transactions with 36% saying they plan to acquire, compared with only 8% in 16. Market participants commented that owners have been holding properties as RevPAR growth accelerated between 15 and 16. As RevPAR growth slows in many markets, sellers are more willing to market their properties at a price that is attractive to buyers. Investment strategy in 16 and 17 While most respondents felt they have faced the greatest competition in acquisition pricing from foreign capital groups, respondents also believe this trend has the potential to vary depending on the foreign government s policy. Market participants do not anticipate this happening soon, but they recalled several instances of being priced out of deals by foreign capital groups. Pricing competition 35 36% 9% % 25% 25% 27% 36% 15 17% 17% 17% 17% 1 13% 5% 5 8% 23% Foreign capital groups Private equity Buy Sell Develop Hold Unsure or not relevant Real estate investment trusts Owners and operators Unsure or not relevant Post-election pulse The investment strategy has changed slightly in 17 to focus more on acquiring and developing hotels than disposing of hotels. Hospitality trends 16 5

6 Capital markets Market participants expressed little change in their strategy to finance hotel transactions during the upcoming six months. Given that most respondents believe the market is at or near the top of the cycle, it is not surprising that we have seen a slight uptick in deals planned using 5% debt and 5% equity, compared with 7% debt and 3% equity during the past six months. Capital structures (debt equity) 6 59% 67% % 25% 1 14% % 4% 4% 5% debt 5% equity 6% debt 4% equity 7% debt 3% equity Unsure or not relevant Past six months Next six months Post-election pulse A capital structure of 6% debt and 4% equity for the next six months is reinforced by the follow up responses. 6

7 Brands The primary customer focus in the hospitality industry is the millennial segment, as reflected in our survey results. According to research performed by The Center for Generational Kinetics, a consulting firm focusing on issues of millennial consumers, millennials are on pace to outspend baby boomers on hospitality expenditures by 17, with expectations that millennials will dominate purchases in the travel industry by. 2 As brands compete for revenue from this customer class, it is essential to tailor development toward the details millennials value: customized experiences, digital convenience and attention to design. 3 6 Customer segment focus 62% As participants look to the rest of 17, investments are anticipated to be directed toward lifestyle brands, including soft brands. According to The Highland Group, in partnership with STR, lifestyle and soft brands are design-centric, upper mid-scale to luxury, nationally franchised or affiliated with a national franchise distribution, and include an element of food service such as lounges offering light food and beverage options to a full-scale restaurant. 4 While lifestyle brands adapt to current trends, soft brands set themselves apart from others in a major chain through their unique design and naming. This investment focus pairs well with the emphasis on millennials, who value design and modernity. Lodging products most ripe for investment % 3 33% % 24% 1 5% % 1 9% Gen Z (age >18) Millennials (age 18 35) Gen X (age 36 51) Baby boomers (age 52+) 5% New brands Lifestyle brands (including soft brands) Selective service % Luxury Unsure or not relevant 2 Ed Watkins, How millennials will change travel by, Hotel News Now website, accessed 6 December Stephanie Ricca, Report defines boutique, lifestyle, soft brand, Hotel News Now website, accessed 9 December Daisy Carrington, Hotel brands no longer sell rooms. They sell experiences, CNN Business Traveller website, accessed 9 December 16. Hospitality trends 16 7

8 Technology None of the respondents felt that the industry has taken all of the necessary steps to protect customer data. Cybersecurity experts believe that even the best-funded and most-prepared companies are at risk of a breach and, therefore, post-breach protocol is an ever-expanding area of focus. Market participants emphasized the need for establishing post-breach protocol in advance of any problems. 19% Cybersecurity preparedness 24% Respondents overwhelmingly emphasized mobile applications as the most important technological investment to enhance customer satisfaction. While having mobile applications is an important part of the guest experience, and of particular value to the millennial customer segment, news sources such as Forbes indicate that data analytics increasingly is more important to understanding guest behavior. Specifically, data analytics can be used to understand the lifetime value of a specific customer to the hotel. 5 Rather than simply observing one visit, big data analyzes customer behavior over a longer horizon to normalize behavioral trends and identify customers with a higher overall lifetime value to the hotel s business model. Focus of technology investments 9.5% 5% 9.5% 57% Industry is unprepared and security breaches are expected Industry is taking necessary steps to protect customer data Industry has taken steps and effective cybersecurity is in place 76% Unsure or not relevant Mobile applications to facilitate or enhance guest experience Data analytics to understand guest preferences Use of social media or peer review sites to solicit guest feedback Unsure or not relevant 8 5 Bernard Marr, How Big Data And Analytics Are Changing Hotels And The Hospitality Industry, Forbes website, accessed 13 December 16.

9 Industry focus More than 62% of the survey respondents indicated disrupters (e.g., the sharing economy) and terrorism, or the perceived threat of terrorism, have the greatest implications to their business and represent possible roadblocks to achieving their RevPAR growth goals in % 7.5% 7.5% Ranking key industry issues More than half of respondents believe the strategic focus to attract the millennial population should be centered around property design elements, including both guest and common spaces. Frequently, this translates into creating social areas where guests collectively work, play, relax, dine and take care of other needs while traveling, such as laundry and exercise. In exchange for more spacious common areas, millennial-focused hotels may downsize guest rooms, recognizing that millennials value social interaction more than time spent in a guest room. 27% 4% 4% Weak currency Disrupters Depressed oil market World health Terrorism Cybersecurity epidemics 15% % Unsure or not relevant Respondents overwhelmingly felt the sharing economy presents a mild threat to the hospitality industry, particularly due to the lack of consistent regulation intended to create a level playing field for traditional hoteliers and the downward pressure on the average daily rate and occupancy. Additionally, market participants noted that the sharing economy has induced a new demand from customers who previously could not afford to travel. Rather than looking at the sharing economy as pure competition, the industry should learn from its successes. Namely, the sharing economy excels at providing a sense of local community, customer engagement and a travel experience. By treating hotel stays as an experience rather than a commodity, and making each guest interaction authentic and impactful, the threat from the sharing economy can be mitigated and serve as a meaningful lesson to the hospitality industry Impact of sharing economy 55% 27% Strategy for attracting millennials 4 52% 1 9% 4.5% 4.5% 29% Not a threat Somewhat significant Significant Very significant Unsure or not relevant 14% Technology Design elements Hosting social experience 5% Perceived value % Unsure or not relevant Hospitality trends 16 9

10 Ernst & Young LLP participants Michael Fishbin Principal Global and Americas Hospitality and Leisure Leader New York, NY Brett M. Johnson Principal Mark Molepske Executive Director Judd Stensrud Manager Gina DeGuzman Senior Manager Ashley Jenkins Manager

11 Rick Sinkuler Partner US Central Region Markets Leader Todd Wallin Partner Assurance Services Jamie Tolles Manager Assurance Services Fraud Investigation and Dispute Services John McBrearty Associate Director Global Account Leader Bruce P. Kaminsky Associate Director Philadelphia, PA Robbie Karver Senior Manager Miami, FL Hospitality trends 16 11

12 EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. Ernst & Young LLP is a client-serving member firm of Ernst & Young Global Limited operating in the US. About EY s Global Real Estate, Hospitality & Construction Sector Today s real estate sector must adopt new approaches to address regulatory requirements and financial risks, while meeting the challenges of expanding globally and achieving sustainable growth. EY s Global Real Estate, Hospitality & Construction Sector brings together a worldwide team of professionals to help you succeed a team with deep technical experience providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The Sector team works to anticipate market trends, identify the implications and develop points of view about relevant sector issues. Ultimately, it enables us to help you meet your goals and compete more effectively. 17 Ernst & Young LLP. All Rights Reserved. SCORE no US ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com/hospitality

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