GAMING & GAMBLING MARKET

Transcription

1 Reserved GAMING & GAMBLING MARKET Rome, february 2010 Srl

2 INTRODUCTION In the last few years world gambling market s growth rate increased constantly. It is also expected to continue like that in the next following years. World market Turnover registered a rapid steady increase, reaching an estimated value of over 2.000Billion $ in 2007 with a CAGR level of 5,6 % for the period Market trend estimates further turnover growth, even if slower than previous years, until Online channel have increased its leverage within the world market; between 2002 and 2008, CAGR was about 26,1 %, higher that the offline channel; in the next years online on offline revenues are estimated at 7,8% Yield evolved quickly, reaching 22,5 Billion $ in 2008 and, even if its growth rate is supposed to slow down, market estimations expect a value of about 34 billion $ in 2012, with a CAGR about 10,2% Italian market Italian gaming market increase, in terms of turnover in the period , has been 17,1 %. The new market regulation of 2007 (Bersani s regulation) contributes pretty much to the national figures and trends 2009 turnover reached 54,4 billion, with an increase of 14,3 % respect to 2008; Italian ARPU level is one of the highest worldwide: each Customer expenditure amount at around 650 / year Slot Machine is the most profitable product, with over 45% of the overall turnover; also lotteries (Gratta&Vinci included) and Lotto, even if in decrease, still have a good leverage in the offline market Highly significant is the online channel; thanks to the Poker launching in late 2008; in 2009 overall online turnover was more than 3,7 billion and Poker contributes on 60%. In 2009 have been also launched Skill games and Bingo, which are supposed to increase rapidly their consistency in the online channel In 2010 a strong increase of online turnover will come from the cash game model legalization that, for Poker and Skill games, will generate more than 1,5 supplementary Billion of revenues

3 Overview Gaming & Gambling market WORLDWIDE MARKET GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER (GGT) * Billion $ CAGR 08/ 12 CAGR 04/ ,6 In the last few years turnover reached a relevant growth rate, supposed to slightly slow down in the next couple of years Gross Gambling Yield (GGY) amount at around x,x% of the Turnover E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E GGY ** 433,8 Source: analysis based on Market data, August

4 - 2 - ONLINE WORLDWIDE MARKET * GROSS GAMBLING YIELD Billion $ CAGR 09/ 12 CAGR 02/ 08 34,0 Online channel grew up rapidly until 2008; its CAGR for the period amounted at Next years trend is expected to be slower than the period before, with a steady state growth E 2010E 2011E 2012E (*) Web, Mobile, itv Source: analysis based on Market data, August ONLINE WORLDWIDE MARKET TURNOVER BREAKDOWN BY PRODUCT Billion $ Overall x,x 34 CAGR 08/ 12 Other * Bingo Casinò Poker Turnover breakdown shows betting will remain the most profitable online product Casino, Poker and Skill games will increase their incidence within 2012 Betting E (*) Lotteries and Skill games included Source: analysis based on Market data, August

5 - 3 - EUROPEAN MARKET GROSS GAMBLING YIELD BREAKDOWN BY COUNTRIES Values in %, % More than x,x% of the market value has been generated by four Countries Italy will increase its leverage into the European market during the next years Total Germany UK Italy France Other Countries Values in Billion 101,8 Source: analysis based on Market data, February ONLINE EUROPEAN MARKET TOP COUNTRIES LAW REGULATION ANALYSIS Million, 2009 GGY UK Regulated online markets Restricted markets Germany Great Britain is the most profitable European online market with the first legal online gaming distribution Italy Spain * France ** Except the recent Italian regulation, in France, Spain and Germany online gaming market still have not established a certain regulation Legal Uncertain Illegal (*) Availability to distribute gaming products through the online channel is currently under discussion by the Government. Shortly, will be adopted a new regulation, probably aimed to legalize the online market (**) Online gaming is illegal except for Public Operators. Government will establish a new market regulation in the next months Source: analysis based on Market data, February

6 - 4 - ITALIAN MARKET GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER Billion Overall 54,4 Poker & Skill games online CAGR 04/ 09 Other games * Bingo SuperEnalotto Horse betting Sport betting Lotto Lotteries Gaming market CAGR in Italy was about in , thanks to the strong effort aimed to defeat the Slot Machine grey market (now almost totally under the Public control of AAMS) SuperEnalotto and Poker online also contributed to reach growth rate between Slot Machine Year X / Year X-1 - (*) Totocalcio, Totogol, Il9 and Big Match are included Source: analysis based on Market data, February ONLINE ITALIAN MARKET GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER Billion Overall 9,3 Other * Poker Instant lotteries Betting Casino Superenalotto Bingo Skill games Following the Italian offline trend, online market growth rate will increase between 2008 and 2012, reaching x,x% Poker will be the most profitable online product; in 2009 its revenues have been x,x billion Casino games are supposed to overtake Betting online in 2012 Year X / Year X E 2011E 2012E - x,x% x,x% x,x% x,x% (*) Traditional games, V7 and other betting games Source: analysis based on Market data, February

7 - 5 - ONLINE ITALIAN MARKET GROSS GAMBLING YIELD Million Overall 612,6 Other games Poker * Instant lotteries Betting Bingo Casino Superenalotto S.games * The launch of new online games will contribute to reach, in 2012, 613 million in terms of yield In 2009 Poker generated almost of the Italian online gaming margin By 2010 yield growth rate will be slower than the previous years, due to the lower pay-out expected for cash games E 2011E 2012E Year X / Year X-1 - x,x% x,x% x,x% x,x% (*) Margin for Poker and Skill games takes in consideration the different rake level for tournament (10%) and cash (4%) Source: analysis based on Market data, February POKER AND BETTING ONLINE TOP PLAYERS POSITIONING IN ITALY (JANUARY 2010) Market share poker 40% 30% Player 1 Last years several players diversified their online portfolio, including new online games (such as poker, skill games and bingo) 20% 10% Player 8 Player 6 Player 7 Player 4 Player 3 Player 2 Player 5 0% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% Market share betting Every player has almost the same market share for poker and betting, except for some operators focused just on one product That demonstrates the two products have quite similar customers Dimensioning represents the total online market revenues Source: analysis based on Market data, February

8 - 6 - ONLINE GAMES TOP PLAYERS POSITIONING BY LINE OF REVENUE Subcription Summary: Highly significant POGO Orange shark Skill games for pay site Free casual game site Skill games for pay site with Digital distribution Significant i-win Yahoo (com) MSN (com) Free casual game site with Digital distribution Absent Gamecolony Worldwinner Gameduel Boyleskill King.com Gamedek MSN (it) Yahoo (it) Miniclip Absent Significant Highly significant Advertising Source: analysis based on Market data, August ITALIAN MARKET: ONLINE GAMES GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER AND BREAKDOWN BY LINE OF REVENUE Million CAGR 08/ Online games market, in Italy, will grow rapidly in the next years It is expected a turnover of about 71 million $ in 2012 Digital Distribution Advertising Subscription % Dig. Distr. % Adv % Subscription E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Subscription will be the main line of revenue, even if Digital distribution and Advertising will increase their leverage Source: analysis based on Market data, August

9 - 7 - SKILL GAMES FOR PAY FEATURE TOP 4 PLAYERS POSITIONING Accessibility Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Player 4 Diversification Liquidity Pay-out n.a. Control Community Marketing Brand High Low Source: analysis based on Market data, August ITALIAN MARKET: SKILL GAMES GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER AND YIELD Million Turnover Not very significant market penetration during the start-up year, due to delays in time to market E 2011E 2012E Starting from 2010, with a new regulation and the cash game model introduction, total revenues will increase rapidly (in particular for card games) Yield Yield percentage estimation will be higher than the Poker one E 2011E 2012E Source: analysis based on Market data, February

10 - 8 - ITALIAN MARKET: SKILL GAMES RULES REVENUES SHARE OUT Values in % Revenues allocation Total Operator maximum percentage Licence Fee * Taxation Pay-out minimum percentage 100% Revenues for operators should be, at maximum, x,x% of the total turnover Following the 2006 Regulation (Decreto Bersani) of the total earned must be treated as taxation Minimum pay-out is fixed at, in line with the national Public Authority (AAMS) Cash games will be launched by 2010 and will provide for a different taxation model (*) Licence Fee is extimated as of the total revenues. Italian regulation report that operators should provide of first semester revenues as Licence fee Source: analysis based on Market data, February ITALIAN MARKET: BINGO ONLINE GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER AND YIELD Million Turnover Bingo has been launched online in Italy in December 2009; currently just 3 operators distribute it E 2011E 2012E Its volume of revenues will be exteemed at around x,x million by 2010 Yield Margin for operators is settled at 18% of the turn over E 2011E 2012E Source: analysis based on Market data, February

11 - 9 - WORLDWIDE MARKET: POKER GROSS GAMBLING YIELD BREAKDOWN BETWEEN CASH AND TOURNAMENT Million It is expected a steady increase of popularity in the next years, both for cash game and tournament % tournament on total E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Cash game represents x,x% of overall turnover in the world market Cash game Tournament Source: analysis based on Market data, August ITALIAN MARKET: POKER ONLINE GROSS GAMBLING TURNOVER Million Italian market for poker online, after its launch in the end of 2008, has increased rapidly in 2009 Currently online poker have been played just in tournament model E 2011E Cash games,not immediately legalized in Italy, is expected to be launched in 2010 and in few months will sure be the main gaming model Turnover on foreign web sites Tournament Cash Poker Source: analysis based on Market data, February

12 ITALIAN MARKET: POKER ONLINE GROSS GAMBLING YIELD Million 283 Yield, compared with the overall turnover, will increase slowly due to the lower cash game margin expected than tournament game (4% vs 10%) E 2011E Margin on foreign web sites Margin on italian web sites Source: analysis based on Market data, February

13 INDEX 1. Worldwide Market: 1.1 Market volumes Worldwide GGT/GGY Worldwide GGT/GGY for product Focus on European market GGT/GGY on interactive channels 1.2 Main international player 1.3 Gaming Jurisdiction 1.4 Payment/ withdrawal systems and business model 2. Italian market: 2.1 Regulatory environment Law regulation description Operator duties analysis Revenues breakdown by product 2.2 Key market points Italian GGT Italian GGY online turnover forecast Gaming online top competitor market share Gambler online main features 2.3 Gamblers online: profile description 2.4 Top Italian player: detailed analysis 2.5 Focus on Skill games Games typologies Line of revenues Customer target Gaming market 2.6 Italian Skill games market Law regulation description Operators duties GGT Competitive scenario 2.7 Italian Online Poker market GGT game accounts estimation Portfolio analysis and description of the main competitor Competitive scenario

14 Focus on online Bingo GGT Competitive scenario 3 Regulatory changes in 2010: key points 3.1 Expected changes 3.2 Regulation s impact on the market 3.3 Cash poker: key points and to-be scenario analysis 3.4 Casino and other games: key point and to-be scenario analysis