Tools To use with the Learning Plan Methodology. Business Implications of Emerging Technologies

Transcription

1 Tools To use with the Learning Plan Methodology Business Implications of Emerging Technologies

2 2.4 Use a Learning Plan The Learning Plan Template Learning Approach: T M R O As of (Date) Status: What is Known? Uncertainties: What is Unknown? Code re: latency and criticality and need to attend in this period. Assumptions Being Made. Primary (expressed in terms of market, value, customer benefit terms), not derivative (expressed in financial terms), per Sykes and Dunham Detail Several Approaches to Test Each Assumption, and associated cost and people required of each approach. Select the most effective test, where effectiveness is a function of learning per dollar and unit of time invested. To Do List: Delegate tasks and timetables for conducting test. Objectives/Evaluative Criteria for the Test. How do you know if the test was successful or not? Learning Outcomes: What have we learned? Have we converted assumptions into knowledge? How does this learning impact the other categories (T, M, R, O)? How does this learning impact overall project progress/risks? How does learning influence next steps? Radical Innovation Group

3 Clarify Uncertainties-- Management Checklist (I) Categories Focus Areas to Consider Technical Understanding technology drivers, value and economic feasibility -Completeness and Correctness of Underlying Scientific Knowledge -Articulation of New Benefits that are Enabled -Potential for Multiple Market Applications -Potential Cost Saving Advantages -Approaches to Solving Identified Technical Problems -Manufacturing and Software Development Requirements -Scalability at Acceptable Economics Market Learning about market drivers, value creation and business viability -Clarity of Value Proposition -Size of Business Potential -Initial Market Entry Application and Followon Applications -Initial Customer Partners -Other Required Value Chain Agents -Existence of Other Technical/Potential Competitive Solutions -Business Model Appropriateness Radical Innovation Group Resource Accessing money, people and organizational competencies -Availability of Internal and External Funding -Project Requirements For Money, Team and Partnerships -Project Lead Choice -Team Competencies Aligned with Project Requirements -Talent Attraction and Development -Competency Acquisition In-House or External Partnerships -Partnership Identification, Formation and Management -Ongoing Assessment of Current Partnerships as Project Matures Organization Gaining and maintaining organizational legitimacy -Strategic Context for Innovation -Commitment of Senior Management -Relationships with Internal Stakeholders -Potential Organizational Resistors -Influence with Corporate Strategy/ Management -Expectations of Senior Management and Transitioning Units -Organizational Design -Project Home and Reporting Structure -Nature of Project Guidance Process

4 Clarify Uncertainties Management Checklist (II) Categories Technical Market Resource Organization Focus Understanding technology drivers, value and economic feasibility Learning about market drivers, value creation and business viability Accessing money, people and organizational competencies Gaining and maintaining organizational legitimacy Potential Flaws and Fatal Flaws or Showstoppers -Technology Proof of Concept Setback -Prototype Limitations -Cost Disadvantages -Technology and/or Application Development Issues -Development Process Major Issues -Market Attractiveness Turns Out to be False -Market Test of Prototype Fails or Disappointing -Inability to Secure Appropriate Customer Partner -Lack of robustness, depth, scope and/or number of new capabilities offered resulting in limited or constrained market applications -Inappropriate time horizon for new Market Creation -Major Funding Loss due to Reversal of Overall Corporate Performance -Project Team Limitations -Inability to Attract Required Talent -Lack of Partnership Strategy -Failure of Alliance Deal or Technical Partner -Undefined Partnership Exit Conditions -Loss of Champion -Change in Senior Management and/or Strategic Intent -Change in Senior Champion/Sponsor -Transfer of Responsibilities at Project Transition -Lack of Strategic Marketing Communications -Inappropriate Portfolio and Project Metrics -Insufficient Runway to Demonstrate Business Results Radical Innovation Group

5 Value Proposition What problems does this technology solve? How important are those problems? How are those problems handled now? What are the key care-abouts of the market? Why will our solution add value?

6 Elevator Speech Short, concise declaration of your value proposition. Based on the idea that you have seconds, in an elevator, with a key potential investor or senior executive who s interest you need to attract. Your objective: for the investor/executive to be intrigued enough to want to learn more. Elevator speeches must be tailored to the interests/expectations of the stakeholder. May need 2 or 3 versions/messages based on differences in stakeholders. Potential customer partners Potential investors Senior leadership who plots strategic direction for the firm. Three example messages: Strategic drivers Market impact Economic value

7 Three phases of New Business Creation for high uncertainty opportunities Discovery Creation, recognition, elaboration, articulation of opportunities. Incubation Evolving the opportunity into a business proposition Acceleration Ramping up the business to stand on its own Conceptualization Experimentation Commercialization Basic Research Internal Hunting External Hunting /License/Purchase /Invest Technical Market Learning Market Creation Strategic domains Focus Respond Invest

8 Three phases of New Business Creation for high uncertainty opportunities Business Concept Discovery Creation, recognition, elaboration, articulation of opportunities. Incubation Evolving the opportunity into a business proposition Acceleration Ramping up the business to stand on its own Conceptualization Experimentation Commercialization Basic Research Internal Hunting External Hunting /License/Purchase /Invest Technical Market Learning Market Creation Strategic domains Focus Respond Invest

9 Developing the Business Concept Areas for Exploration Radicalness of the Technology Technology Related Issues Market Related Issues Strategy Related Issues

10 Technological Considerations What is the potential value of the technology? Have we proven/can we prove technical feasibility? Do we understand the fundamental science behind the technology? Do we have the technical capabilities, or can we access them, to make the technology reliable and scalable? What process development issues are we facing in terms of reliability and scalability? What technical hurdles must be overcome? Are we confident we have the expertise to overcome the hurdles? Can we/have we developed a prototype to demonstrate feasibility and engage in market trials to determine the technology s applicability?

11 Market Considerations What is its potential impact on the market? Is the technology a game changing opportunity from the market s standpoint by offering: New to the world performance features, Orders of magnitude improvement in known features; and/or, 50% or more reduction in cost? Is there a robust set of application possibilities? Are numerous application possibilities enabled? Are there many product/process opportunities? Are there whole families of potential products? Are there several differences that the application markets value? Can any single application of the technology create a substantial leap over substitutes in the market? Can we articulate a compelling value proposition?

12 Strategic Considerations What is the potential business value for the company? Business Opportunity Does this fit with our company's strategic intent (future vision)? What is the order of magnitude of the potential market size? Can this opportunity extend the company's core business in new directions? Will this project stretch the company into new domains? Resource and Organization Positioning Do we have a champion in the company? Is the company committed to building this business? Who are the potential resistors in the company? Does application of this technology have the potential to cannibalize one of our existing divisions? Will exploration of the application connect us to new partners and/or new market domains? Will the necessary resources (talent and funding) be available when needed? What is the likely commercialization path (new or existing division, equity spin out, joint venture, technology licensing)?

13 Output of Discovery = Business Concept Areas To Consider Project and Technology Overview Market Landscape Company Strategic Positioning and Potential Business Value Reduction and Next Steps Business Concept for Projects in Discovery (Characterized by high uncertainty across multiple dimensions) What is the project history? Who is the sponsor and who are the champions? What is the technology insight and what are the application possibilities? Can we prove technical feasibility? Can we build a prototype to help demonstrate feasibility? What does this technology enable that could not be done before/problem it addresses? Who might value this difference and why is this approach so exciting compared to others? What other approaches are being developed to address this problem? How does this fit with the company s strategic intent (future vision)? To what degree would this opportunity solidify our position in the market and move us into new domains of strategic interest? What is the order of magnitude of the potential market size and revenue opportunity? Will there be a need for partnerships to fill our competency gaps? If so, in which areas? What is the likely commercialization path? What are the technical, market, resource and/or organization uncertainties that need to be addressed next? What is the plan for moving forward, including critical learning milestones and resource requirements (people and dollars)?

14 Three phases of New Business Creation for high uncertainty opportunities Business Proposal Discovery Creation, recognition, elaboration, articulation of opportunities. Incubation Evolving the opportunity into a business proposition Acceleration Ramping up the business to stand on its own Conceptualization Experimentation Commercialization Basic Research Internal Hunting External Hunting /License/Purchase /Invest Technical Market Learning Market Creation Strategic domains Focus Respond Invest

15 Developing the Business Proposal Areas for Experimentation Engaging the Market Technology Prototype and IP Strategy Market Learning and Business Model Strategic Requirements (Resource and Organization)

16 Technology Prototype and IP Strategy What is required to develop the technology? What are the new benefits that will be enabled by this technology? What are the identified technical problems and approaches to solving them? What is the plan for protecting the intellectual property? Patents filed? Competing patents? Plans to address? Which applications will be/have been pursued and tested via the technology prototype? What should the technical specifications be? What software and operations processes do we need? What are the manufacturing and facility requirements? Do these technology requirements differ from what already exists? If so, how will differences be addressed? Is there a plan for evolving this technology into a platform of products?

17 Market Learning and Business Model What is required for a new or unfamiliar market? What is the business potential and is it significant enough to warrant further investment? Are other solutions emerging that could impact our market advantage? Is the market (eventual customers and value chain agents) demonstrating enthusiasm for this innovation? Who? How? What do we need to learn/have we learned through market test of prototype? What defines success/are we successful? What is the initial business model and market entry strategy? Is this an existing/new, familiar/unfamiliar market? Which application(s) will be pursued first? Have potential customers expressed an interest in this initial application? Is there a lead customer identified/in place? Which parts of the value chain will the business address? Which partnerships are required to fill the rest of the value chain and how will we encourage them to participate? Is there a clear market value proposition? What is it? What is the plan for follow on applications?

18 Strategic Requirements What support is required to guide project learning? Is the strategic context for innovation defined? Does it provide a clear sense of organizational purpose for the project team? Are sr mgmt expectations appropriate regarding money and time required to create new markets/pursue unfamiliar markets, hiring/developing new business creation skills, performance metrics, etc.? If not, how do we educate them? Is the governance model effective in protecting the project and building organizational alignment? What is our partnership and project team strategy to ensure requirements are met as the project matures? What are the expectations regarding transition readiness and most likely deployment path?

19 Output of Incubation = Business Proposal Areas To Consider Project Opportunity Overview & Value Proposition Market Opportunity Competitive Landscape Business Models Risk Assessment Recommendations and Next Steps Business Proposal for Projects in Incubation (Characterized by high uncertainty across multiple dimensions) Describe the technology and the potential opportunity: What problems does this technology solve? For whom? How big are the problems? What is the project history and current status (origins, supporters, team, accomplishments, etc.)? What are the market applications that have been tested? Which ones are most promising to pursue? What is the potential value of this technology as a source of competitive advantage? Have we demonstrated technical feasibility? How does this fit with the company s strategic intent (future vision of where you want to be?) What are the technology, industry and market trends? What will be the first market application and what are the plans for follow on applications? What key initial customer partners that you have identified and what is the status of those relationships? What is the potential order of magnitude financial value to the company? What are the potential competitive approaches? Who are the possible companies who will enter this market (current and future)? What is the proposed value chain? Where does the project fit? What are the value chain gaps? Where are the partnership opportunities and who are partners/potential partners? Status of those relationships? What are potential revenue models? What is the initial business model and market entry strategy? What are the key assumptions and risks for moving forward (invest in increments to learn more)? What are the technical, market, resource and organization uncertainties to be addressed next? What is the recommended deployment path for first and follow on applications? What are the resource requirements and plan to advance the first application, including critical milestones, uncertainty reduction and transition readiness requirements?

20 Three phases of New Business Creation for high uncertainty opportunities Business Plan Discovery Creation, recognition, elaboration, articulation of opportunities. Incubation Evolving the opportunity into a business proposition Acceleration Ramping up the business to stand on its own Conceptualization Experimentation Commercialization Basic Research Internal Hunting External Hunting /License/Purchase /Invest Technical Market Learning Market Creation Strategic domains Focus Respond Invest

21 Developing the Business Plan Areas for Exploitation Growing the Business New Product Development Plan Market Development and Sales Plan Strategic Requirements

22 New Product Development Plan How will the technology be converted into a product line? Are the technical specifications set? Is the technology embedded in this product reliable and scalable at acceptable economics? Has lead user feedback been incorporated in the design? In what form will the product be presented to the customer? Has the process for incorporating the technology into the product development stream been clarified? Are the manufacturing and facility requirements in place? Has the software for this product been validated and is it ready for scale up? What is the proposed schedule and resource plan for follow on products from this platform?

23 Market Development and Sales Plan How will demand for this product be generated? Has the value proposition for this product been validated through a controlled market trial? Are patents in place as a source of competitive advantage? Has a marketing plan been developed with a revenue forecast based on an understanding of the initial entry market? Has the market been appropriately educated about the potential of the technology and the resulting product benefits? Are the distribution channels in place with appropriate technical know-how to sell the initial product offering? Has a list of qualified customers been developed to give us confidence in the sales forecast?

24 Strategic Requirements What are critical success factors required for growth? Do we have sufficient funding to grow and transition this venture? If not, how do we fill the gaps? Do we have the right venture leader and team in place? What are the competency gaps on the team that need to be filled? How do we recruit these individuals? Has the partner(s) needed for development and launch of this product been identified and is the agreement in place? Are senior management and other stakeholders ensuring an appropriate organizational home and reporting structure is in place to support the growth of this business? What are the performance measures and reward systems that need to be in place to support business growth? Is the deployment path determined and transition plan in place, supported by senior management and project team? At what point will this business be transitioned into an operating division? What mechanisms are in place to ensure that the business continues to receive the investment and attention required once it is transitioned?

25 Output of Acceleration = Business Plan Areas To Consider Business Overview Value Proposition Market Opportunity Competitive Landscape Business Model Risk Assessment Recommendations and Next Steps Business Plan for Businesses in Acceleration (Similar to business plan for incremental innovation projects) What is the project history and current status (origins, supporters, team, accomplishments, etc.)? What is the product or service to be offered? How does it fit on the business product roadmap? How does this fit with the company s business strategy? Which objectives does this business address (e.g., secure industry leadership position, prevent competitive inroads, maintain or grow market share, etc.)? What value does the first product offer customers (e.g., better, faster, cheaper, variety, etc.)? How does this product fit with industry and market needs? What is the target market, size of the addressable market and projected market share? How has the initial product offering been positioned in the market? How are first revenues proceeding in comparison to plan? What evidence is there of customer delight? Repeat customers? What is the initial sales forecast? What are the projections re revenue/cost savings, time to break even and profit, etc.? Who are the competitors? What is the market window to secure a competitive advantage? What are the technology attributes and unique product features that lead to business differentiation and sustainability? Does this venture fit in the existing value chain? If so, how will we leverage our existing value chain to gain economies of scale, scope and know how? If not, what is required to support a new business model? What is the revenue model (pricing, sales and channel strategy)? What are the key assumptions and risks for moving forward? What are our strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats? What is the new product development plan and business strategy for follow on products? What are the resource (people, money, partners) requirements to grow and transition the business? How will gaps be resolved? What are the business milestones/performance metrics?

26 Business Opportunity Evolution Phases Discovery Incubation Acceleration Categories Exploration Output = Business Concept Experimentation Output = Business Proposal Exploitation Output = Business Plan Technical Understanding technology drivers, value and economic feasibility Technical Feasibility and Capabilities Technology Prototype and IP Strategy New Product Development Plan Market Learning about market drivers, value creation and business viability Application Possibilities and Value Proposition Market Learning, Business Model and Market Entry Strategy Market Development and Sales Plan Resource Accessing money, people and organizational competencies Availability of Funding and Right People New Business Creation Talent and Partnerships (Internal and External) Business Team Composition and Partnerships Aligned for Business Maturity Organization Gaining and maintaining organizational legitimacy Strategic Context for Innovation and Senior Level Commitment Structure and System to Support New Business Development Projects Organizational Placement and Transition Management

27 Business Opportunity Evolution Phases Discovery Incubation Acceleration Categories Exploration Output = Business Concept Experimentation Output = Business Proposal Exploitation Output = Business Plan Technical Understanding technology drivers, value and economic feasibility Technical Feasibility and Capabilities Technology Prototype and IP Strategy New Product Development Plan Market Learning about market drivers, value creation and business viability Application Possibilities and Value Proposition Market Learning, Business Model and Market Entry Strategy Market Development and Sales Plan Resource Accessing money, people and organizational competencies Availability of Funding and Right People New Business Creation Talent and Partnerships (Internal and External) Business Team Composition and Partnerships Aligned for Business Maturity Organization Gaining and maintaining organizational legitimacy Strategic Context for Innovation and Senior Level Commitment Structure and System to Support New Business Development Projects Organizational Placement and Transition Management Semester I

28 Business Opportunity Evolution Phases Discovery Incubation Acceleration Categories Exploration Output = Business Concept Experimentation Output = Business Proposal Exploitation Output = Business Plan Technical Understanding technology drivers, value and economic feasibility Technical Feasibility and Capabilities Technology Prototype and IP Strategy New Product Development Plan Market Learning about market drivers, value creation and business viability Application Possibilities and Value Proposition Market Learning, Business Model and Market Entry Strategy Market Development and Sales Plan Resource Accessing money, people and organizational competencies Availability of Funding and Right People New Business Creation Talent and Partnerships (Internal and External) Business Team Composition and Partnerships Aligned for Business Maturity Organization Gaining and maintaining organizational legitimacy Strategic Context for Innovation and Senior Level Commitment Structure and System to Support New Business Development Projects Organizational Placement and Transition Management Semester II

29 Business Opportunity Evolution Phases Discovery Incubation Acceleration Categories Exploration Output = Business Concept Experimentation Output = Business Proposal Exploitation Output = Business Plan Technical Understanding technology drivers, value and economic feasibility Technical Feasibility and Capabilities Technology Prototype and IP Strategy New Product Development Plan Market Learning about market drivers, value creation and business viability Application Possibilities and Value Proposition Market Learning, Business Model and Market Entry Strategy Market Development and Sales Plan Resource Accessing money, people and organizational competencies Availability of Funding and Right People New Business Creation Talent and Partnerships (Internal and External) Business Team Composition and Partnerships Aligned for Business Maturity Organization Gaining and maintaining organizational legitimacy Strategic Context for Innovation and Senior Level Commitment Structure and System to Support New Business Development Projects Organizational Placement and Transition Management DMM, CME