Forecasting Techniques. 5/17/2008 Cromford Associates LLC Mike Orr

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1 Forecasting Techniques 5/17/2008 Cromford Associates LLC Mike Orr

2 Introduction It is true that no-one can predict with certainty what will happen in the future. However real estate is a cyclical market and most changes are signaled well in advance if you know what to watch. This document identifies four key measurements that we have found to be crucial when attempting to spot a significant change in a market sector. 1. The Cromford Market Index 2. Pending Listing Counts 3. Days Inventory 4. Pending $/SF versus Sold $/SF These key measurements may all be monitored using the web site All the examples in this document focus on the Phoenix metropolitan area and relate to the residential resale market based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period January 1, 2001 to May 16, Forecasting Technique 1 Using the Cromford Market Index The Cromford Market Index (CMI ) is designed to give a very early signal of a change in the market. It uses seven years history of active listings, pending listings and monthly sales rates to measure today s balance of supply and demand. A value of 100 represents a balanced market, while values over 100 indicate an excess of demand and values below 100 indicate an excess of supply. The further the CMI moves away from 100, the more unbalanced the market. The CMI does NOT represent pricing strength since this was determined by the market balance many months ago. Instead it focuses on the underlying power struggle between supply and demand. Extremes in market balance usually precede tops and bottoms in pricing by some 12 to 15 months. This gives you plenty of time to confirm the trend with other measurements and then take appropriate buying or selling action. You can see the history of the Phoenix metro residential re-sale market since 1/1/2001 summarized in the chart below by selecting The Cromford Index - All Areas and Types - Long Term Chart from the main menu on On May 1, 2008 this chart looked as follows: Forecasting Techniques Page 2

3 The investor feeding frenzy of 2004/5 was relatively short-lived from February 2004 through April The turn-around in the underlying market balance in 2Q 2005 was identified very clearly by the chart above. The highest excess of demand over supply - the top - occurred at the beginning of April 2005 and the severity of the reversal became visible very quickly. As a consequence, the author took the decision to sell all his investment property in September Occasionally you will see weak tops or bottoms that have less significance. The changes in direction in September 2003, October 2006 and February 2007 were not sustained for long. Sharp changes in direction that continue for long periods should be viewed as very significant. The importance of a change in direction may be confirmed by referring to other metrics, particularly: Days Inventory, Sales per Month and Pending Listing Counts. The bottom we saw on November 2007 was initially weak and thus suspect, particularly due to its similarity to October 2006, but from March 2008 onward the change in direction has been strongly emphasized by the slower moving metrics including all those mentioned above. Forecasting Techniques Page 3

4 Keeping a close watch on the Cromford Market Index allows you to anticipate changes in market balance before your competitors become aware of them. The current direction of the index is strongly upwards in several areas, but this is not true of all cities. You are encouraged to look at the CMI charts for individual cities to determine their supply / demand balance. In the meantime the table below gives the Cromford Market Index as of May 11, 2008 for the 42 cities covered by the Cromford Report. Forecasting Techniques Page 4

5 The Cromford Market Index is also calculated for individual price-ranges, major MLS areas and major ZIP-codes and this information is gradually being added to Cromford Report web-site. Due to the imminent phase out by ARMLS of MLS areas, only the currently documented MLS areas, (206, 407 and 501) will continue to be updated for the next few months. Forecasting Technique 2 Using Pending Listing Counts Pending Listing Counts are an extremely useful indicator of future trends. This is because 1. They predict future sales volumes, since a high proportion of pending listings will become closed sales in the near future. 2. They react quickly to increases or reductions in demand as contracts are signed or fail to close. 3. They often follow seasonal patterns, so year to year comparisons are very revealing. 4. They allow useful comparisons between cities, geographic areas or price sectors. We encourage you to monitor all the pending listing charts since an uptick in pending listings is often the first sign that the market is improving in a particular areas. As an example you can choose Analysis - By City - Pending Listings from the main menu of the Cromford Report and select the city of Maricopa to see the following chart with an obvious message: Forecasting Techniques Page 5

6 This weekly chart shows that in the city of Maricopa, pending listings increased dramatically from historic norms starting at the end of February This sort of chart provides one of the earliest signs that investment potential is growing due to increased demand. It is particularly instructive to compare one city with another, which is easy to do with the online interactive version of the chart. The above chart for Maricopa makes a strong contrast with a similar one for Fountain Hills, below. This reveals relatively depressed demand during the first five months of 2008, lower than the previous four years. From the pricing charts elsewhere in the Cromford Report, we know that Maricopa prices have fallen dramatically in the last two years. However, Fountain Hills has maintained relatively high pricing which, along with unfavorable terms for non-conforming loans, has probably dampened demand in recent months. This has caused the market balance in Fountain Hills to weaken somewhat between 2007 and Another key measurement related to pending listing counts may be seen in the City Snapshots. This is the Annual Growth in Pending Listings for each market segment. If this is between 0% and 10% the situation is normal. Below 0% indicates weak demand and above 10% indicates strong demand. This is a quick and easy method for checking the health of the demand in any city you are reviewing. The same measurement can be obtained graphically from the City Dashboards. Forecasting Techniques Page 6

7 A direct comparison between two or more major cities can be made by selecting Analysis By major City Pending Listings. Below is an example chart: We can see that over the last 120 days, Queen Creek has experienced a strong increase in demand and overtaken Gilbert and Scottsdale to almost rival Mesa for the number of pending listings. In contrast, although pending listings in Scottsdale have increased as we would expect during the spring season, the increase has been relatively weak and the Scottsdale pending listing count has now fallen below Gilbert. We can conclude that the market in Queen Creek has already shown a strongly improved response to the reduced pricing that exists there. In the future we look to see Scottsdale regaining its strength in pending listings as an early signal of improving market conditions there. Forecasting Technique 3 Using Days Inventory Many real estate people are familiar with concept of Months Supply which takes the inventory of active listings and divides by the monthly sales rate. The result expresses the current inventory level in terms of how many months it will take to sell all the currently active listings. Forecasting Techniques Page 7

8 One problem with this metric is that the monthly sales rate for the Phoenix area is very seasonal, as illustrated by the sales per month chart below: Sales rates are usually weakest in January, rise strongly in February and March and then hit a peak level during the second quarter of each year. They decline again during the latter half of the year. These effects make Months Supply a figure which tends to follow a seasonal pattern instead of giving a consistent indication of the supply level throughout the year. In the Cromford Report we instead define Days Inventory as the inventory of active listings divided by the annual sales rate and multiplied by the number of days in the year (366 in 2008). This metric is a much more consistent, albeit slower moving, indicator of inventory levels. We particularly like it because it acts as a confirmation tool for signals from the Cromford Market Index. When Days Inventory falls it is a sign that the balance is moving in favor of the seller. When it rises, market balance is moving in favor of the buyer. This is a strong signal, but since it makes no allowance for changes in pending listing counts, it is not as sensitive or as informative as the CMI. Below is a chart showing detail Days Inventory figures for five major cities over the last 120 days. Forecasting Techniques Page 8

9 The chart above shows a strongly favorable trend for Queen Creek, a favorable trend for Surprise and moderately unfavorable trends for Phoenix and Scottsdale. Tempe, which has always enjoyed consistently lower inventory levels than any other city in the valley, is currently giving us a neutral to slightly positive trend for Days Inventory. As with the CMI, Days Inventory is a leading indicator and so it will take some considerable time before pricing reacts to the changes it reports. Median Price, Average Price and Price per Square Foot ($/SF) are all lagging indicators of market balance. Again, this delay creates a market opportunity for investors. Forecasting Technique 4 Using Pending List Price $/SF You can use the average price in $/SF for pending listings to develop a reasonable short term forecast for future sales $/SF. Using the Analysis menu, you select the List Pricing - Active/Pending/Closed chart for the market segment you wish to study. In the example we will use the entire market All Areas & Types. Here is the chart as of May 10, Forecasting Techniques Page 9

10 In this chart there is a point for every day in the last six months showing: In blue the average $/SF for active listings In green the average $/SF for pending listings In brown the average list price $/SF for listings closed as sold in the monthly period just ended In red the average sale price $/SF for listings sold in the monthly period just ended Note that the brown and red lines usually keep in step with each other. However they would normally be closer together than we are currently experiencing. The distance between the red and brown lines is a reflection of the strength of the market. The most important line to watch is the green one. In a balanced market this should be some 4-8% above the brown line i.e. somewhat higher than the current list price $/SF for monthly sales. The brown line normally lies some 2-5% above the red line the current actual sales price $/SF for monthly sales. In a rising market the green line also rises and tends to pull the brown and red lines higher over time. In a falling market the green line pushes the brown and red lines lower. You can therefore use the shape of the green line to forecast where prices will be about four weeks into the future. Some examples: Forecasting Techniques Page 10

11 1. Point A the pending $/SF peaks on Jan 3 and then falls steadily. The closed $/SF peaks 29 days later at point C on Jan 31 and then falls steadily. 2. Point B is similar in that the pending $/SF starts a steep decline on Mar 3. The closed $/SF starts a similar steep decline on Mar 28 A useful tip is to watch out for the following special signals: 1. If the green line falls below the brown line (as at point C - Jan 30), this is a negative sign for pricing expect a decline in sales pricing over the next four weeks at least. 2. If the green line falls below the red line (as at point D Apr 3), this is strongly negative for pricing expect a severe fall in sales pricing for the next eight weeks at least. 3. If the green line rises strongly above the brown line after falling below - expect a recovery in sales pricing over the following few weeks. This occurred in the chart a few weeks prior to B. 4. If the green line opens a sustained 8% gap over the brown line expect sales pricing to start rising in the near term. On the chart above, we can see that the green line is still well below the brown line. This suggests that prices will weaken considerably over the following 4 weeks, though not quite as steeply as in April. This technique only looks forward by a month or two, but it provides very clear and usually reliable signals which will not have been spotted by most market observers. You will probably know sooner about strengthening or weakening pricing than your competitors and be able to take appropriate action. Conclusion Unlike the stock market, the residential real estate market changes direction quite slowly and moves in long cycles. This makes it possible to use simple mathematics to develop forecasts about sales volumes, sales price $/SF and supply / demand balance. There is always the possibility of an unexpected market disruption, perhaps through natural disaster or major political upheaval. However for much of the time, forecasts using the techniques described in this document have proven to be remarkably consistent with the eventual outcome. For investors, the use of this information provides a potential financial opportunity if they take appropriate action ahead of the rest of the market. A key requirement is the historical data necessary to interpret the meaning hidden within today s numbers. This is where the Cromford Report comes in. provides not just the historical data but the interactive tools and graphs to enable you to make your own forecasts and thereby gain competitive advantage. Forecasting Techniques Page 11

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