Winds of Change. MCAA Summary April Macroeconomic Rise for 2018 US Global. Tariffs
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1 Winds of Change Alex Chausovsky Senior Consulting Advisor MCAA Summary April 218 Macroeconomic Rise for 218 US Global Global Issues Impacting Businesses Tariffs Leading Indicator Signals are Mixed Know which ones matter to you How to track the leading indicators
2 MCAA Summary April 218 Beware of Business Cycle Decline in 219 Some industries hit harder than others Consumer is the source of concern Additional Profit Margin Pressure Points Employment Inflation Issues The Long View is Unchanged Severe business cycle decline Forecast Results If you heard ITR around two years ago 4 Duration Accuracy US GDP % US Ind. Prod % Europe Ind. Prod % Canada Ind. Prod % China Ind. Prod % Retail Sales % Housing % Employment % ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.
3 General Economic Outlook 2 US Gross Domestic Product SAAR, Chained 29 $ US Gross Domestic Product Quarter-over-Quarter Growth Rate 3-Month Moving Average 3/12 Rate-of-Change '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 ' '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2-9 $17.3 trillion Phase: B Quarter-over-Quarter: 2.6% ITR Outlook 218: 219: 22: 1.6% 1.2% 2.8% Source: BEA 6
4 US GDP by Consumption Government Spending 17% Business Investment 16% Personal Consumption 67% Percent Sources: BEA, ITR Economics US Industrial Production Index 114 US Industrial Production Index 12-Month Moving Average Year-over-Year Growth Rate 12/12 Rate-of-Change Annual Trend: 14.7 Phase: B Year-over-Year: 2.5% ITR Outlook 218: 2.9% 219: -1.2% 22: 2.3% Source: FRB
5 US IP Manage the Business Cycles to Maximize Profits US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product Manufacturing ~ 76% of Industrial Production Mining ~ 14% of Industrial Production Utilities ~ 1% of Industrial production 4.1% GDP % GDP US IP -2.9% -5.2% -15.5% '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12) Sources: FRB, BEA Canada Industrial Production ROC MMA /12 12/12 5.% 3.5% MMA 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of chained 27 Canadian Dollars Source: Statistics Canada 1
6 Mexico Industrial Production Index R-O-C 15 MMA 18 3/12 12/12.3% -.3% MMA 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 28 = 1 Source: CEIC 6 11 Tax Reform
7 Real Gross Domestic Product Republican Democrat GDP 3/12 3/12 Rate-of-Change Source: BEA 13 7% 6% 5% Freed Up Money Likely Not going to Capex US Corporate Tax Rate and Gross Business Investment Corporate Tax Rate % Gross Business Investment (% of GDP) Linear (Gross Business Investment (% of GDP)) 14 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % '6 '64 '68 '72 '76 '8 '84 '88 '92 '96 ' '4 '8 '12 '16 % Percent Sources: Tax Policy Center, FRED 14
8 ATLANTA FED IS WATCHING On business investment, roughly two thirds of respondents to our national survey indicated that the reform wouldn't affect their capital expenditures at all. Just 15 percent said they would increase their capital spending by 1 percent or more, and those responses came mostly from smaller firms. ~ Raphael Bostic Atlanta Federal Reserve Chair Rotary Club of Atlanta January 8, 218 US Tax Rates and Real GDP Growth Real GDP Growth Rate 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.% 1.% 9.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.%.% Real GDP Growth Rate Top Marginal Tax Rate Top Marginal Tax Rate Sources: Tax Foundation, BEA, 16
9 Issues Government Will and Won t Tackle Tax/Exp/Paym $3, $2,625 $2,25 $1,875 $1,5 $1,125 $75 $375 $ Current Tax Receipts Consumption Expenditures Current Transfer Payments Interest Payments Interest $3, $2,625 $2,25 $1,875 $1,5 $1,125 $75 $375 $ Billions of Dollars Source: BEA 17 Total U.S. Public Debt The Long View 121.3% (% of GDP) Source: Usgovernmentspending.com 18
10 Trade Imports, bils $ 6 Import Share Pre and Post the Great Recession US Iron and Steel Imports to US Steel Apparent Consumption Production, 212= Steel Imports - 12MMT Steel Production - 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 12MMA, 12MMT Sources: US Census Bureau; FRB 3 2
11 Share of US Steel Imports by Country, % 1.% 6.% 11.% 16.% 21.% Canada Brazil Korea Mexico Russia Turkey Japan Germany Taiwan India China Others 5.7% 5.% 4.% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1% 9.9% 9.2% 8.3% 13.5% 16.5% 2.3% Percent of Steel Imports Source: Census Bureau US Trade Balance for Goods and Services MMT MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of dollars Source: US Census Bureau
12 US Steel Mill Employment R-O-C 1 MMA /12 12/12 5.5% 2.8% MMA 12MMA 17.8 Steel Jobs: approx. 169k jobs highest since 1992 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Thousands Source: BLS The Decline of US Manufacturing Apparel Manufacturing Textile Mills Leather and Allied Products Printing and Related Activities Furniture Textile Product Mills Computer and Electronics Electrical Equipment/Appliance Wood Products Apparel Manufacturing Textile Mills Leather and Allied Products Printing and Related Activities Furniture Textile Product Mills Computer and Electronics Electrical Equipment/Appliance Wood Products Paper Paper FIRMS Primary Metals Primary Metals WORKERS Nonmetallic Mineral Products Plastics and Rubber Products Machinery Fabricated Metal Products Miscellaneous Chemicals Transportation Equipment Petroleum and Coal Products Food Manufacturing Beverage and Tobacco Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Plastics and Rubber Products Machinery Fabricated Metal Products Miscellaneous Chemicals Transportation Equipment Petroleum and Coal Products Food Manufacturing Beverage and Tobacco Products -6% -3% % 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% -1% -5% % 5% Percent Share of Global Manufacturing, by Value Added Source: Harvard Business Review
13 Manufacturing Increasingly Takes Place in Asia 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % % Rest of World Latin America North America 6% 5% 4% 24% South/East Asia 3% 2% 1% 4% Europe % Percent Share of Global Manufacturing, by Value Added Source: Harvard Business Review China Reacts with Tariffs on US Imports 7 Various Pork Products (out of 8 total) Scrap Aluminum
14 China Reacts with Tariffs on US Imports 78 Fruit & Nut Products (out of 12 total) Stainless Steel Pipes Wine Ginseng Modified Ethanol $6 Billion in New Tariffs Aimed at China Trade War Ahead? $1 The US is China s Biggest Customer Exports from the US to China stand at $13.1bn, or.7% of US GDP. Exports from China to the US are a record high $436.9bn, or 3.8% of China GDP. Slowing exports to the US will hurt their economy more than ours but it is not risk free. Downstream Potential InflationUS Consequences Production Job & Profit Loss in Export Supply Chain (to China) Industry Exports US $ bn Aerospace $ 16.3 Soybeans $ 12.4 Motor Vehicles $ 1. Semiconductors $ 6.9 Oil & Gas $ 6.9 Waste & Scrap $ 5.6 Ctrl Instruments $ 5.6 Synthetic Rubbers $ 3.9 Pharmaceuticals $ 3.4 Ind l Machines $ 3.3 Source: US Census Bureau
15 US Top Goods Export by State Based on annual data, 217 Source: US Census Bureau How Does Manufacturing Contribute to Exports? In 216, about 6 in 1 US Export Dollars came from manufacturers. $847.8 B Manufacturers (58.8%) $329.3 B Wholesalers (22.8%) $264.8 B Other and Unclassified (18.4%) Dollars Source: Census Bureau 3
16
17 Caterpillar 996g Wheel Loader US-made 217 Cost: 218 Cost: Difference: 271, ,5-33,928 Liebherr L576 Wheel Loader German-made 245, 245, 33 Interest Rates
18 ? '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Source: FRB Yield on 1 Year Treasury Note 6 5 FOMC Member Interest Rate Projections December 217 Fed Open Market Committee March Longer Run Source: FRB 36
19 % 7.8% Rate-of-Change & Leading Indicators Tools for Seeing the Future -3 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2-45 Leading Indicators Industry Data 18 May 21 May 211 Leading Indicator December Industry Data - 12/12 ITR Leading Indicator - Monthly ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 The Indicator has a 12-month lead time to the Industry Data Rates-of-Change Sources: FRB, ITR Economics
20 US IP, G7 15 Leading Indicator System as a Powerful Tool US Industrial Production Index to Leading Indicators PMI, Wilshire, Profits, JP Morgan US IP - 12/12-2 US IP Forecast G7 Indicator - 1/12-1 PMI - 1/12-4 Wilshire Market Cap - 3/12 Corporate Profits - 12/12-15 JP Morgan Indicator - 3/12-6 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 Rates-of-Change Sources: FRB, OECD, ISM, Yahoo Finance, BEA, IHS Markit US IP 1 Searching for a Recession US Search Interest for "Recession" on Google to US Industrial Production Index Search Interest / / US IP 12/12 US IP Forecast Search Interest 3/12 (post-log transformation) '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 ' Rates-of-Change (Search Interest has a 16 month lead time) Sources: Google, FRB
21 Negative Indication for 219 US Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Income Sales 12 Index Retail Sales 12/12 Retail Sales Forecast 12/ Savings Rate 12MMA 12 3 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 '21 '22 '23 '24 12/12 Rates-of-Change Sources: Census Bureau, BEA 41 Industry Drivers
22 R-O-C 2 US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft A positive impact from the tax law will show up here 3/12 12/12 7.1% 6.4% MMT MMT 12MMT $ ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of Dollars Source: Census Bureau 43 US Petroleum Refineries Production R-O-C 14 MMA /12 12/ % -1.2% MMA 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 N32411, 22 = 1 Source: FRB 44
23 U.S. Oil & Gas Extraction Production Index R-O-C /12 12/ % 7.5% MMA MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 12MMA As seen in 212 = 1 Source: FRB US Mining Production Index (excluding oil & gas) R-O-C 1 3/12 12/12.2% -3.5% MMA MMA 3MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 ' = 1 Data Source: FRB 46
24 US Iron & Steel Products Production Index R-O-C 75 NAICS 3311, 2 Production index for the manufacture of iron and steel products. 3/12 12/12 4.9% 3.4% MMA MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 ' = 1 Source: FRB 4 47 US Industrial Machinery Production Index R-O-C 4 3/12 MMA /12 3.8% 1.7% MMA 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 ' = 1 Source: FRB 48
25 R-O-C 8 US Electric Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution Production Index 3/12 7.6% MMA /12.6% MMA MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 ' = 1 Source: FRB 49 US Total Power Facilities Construction R-O-C 1 5 3/12 12/12 MMT % -7.2% MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Billions of Dollars Source: US Census Bureau 1 5
26 US Public Water and Sewer Facilities Construction R-O-C 3 MMT 1 3/ /12 5.2% -7.9% MMT 12MMT ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 Public, Billions of Dollars Source: US Census Bureau 51 US Chemicals & Products Production Index R-O-C 1 3/12 3.5% 2.2% MMA MMA 12MMA 12/ ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 27 = 1 Source: FRB 52
27 US Food Production Index R-O-C 6 3 3/12 12/12 4.9% 4.7% MMA MMA 12MMA ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 N311, 27 = 1 Source: FRB 9 53 US Paper & Products Production R-O-C 1 12/12 3/12 MMA MMA MMA 96.3 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 '22 '24 22 = 1 Source: FRB
28 North American Market Sectors 218 Outlook Industry Phase April 218 Forecast 218 US Industrial Production Index B 2.5% 2.9% Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders B 6.4% 4.7% Oil & Gas Extraction Production Index B 7.5% 6.2% Mining Production Index (excl. Oil & Gas) C.2% -1.8% Iron & Steel Products Production Index B 4.9% 3.4% Industrial Machinery Production Index C 3.8% 1.4% Electric Power Generation Production B.6% 2.4% Total Power Facilities Construction D -7.2% 1.1% Water & Sewer Facility Construction A -7.9% 6.2% Chemicals Production Index B 2.2% 2.4% Food Production Index B 4.7% 2.6% Paper Production Index D -1.5% -2.3% Summary
29 Business Cycles Phase A - Recovery Phase B Accelerating Growth (Best) Phase C Slowing Growth (Caution) Phase D - Recession Annual Sales are BELOW Year-Ago Levels, but the Rate-of-Decline is SLOWING. Annual Sales are ABOVE Year-Ago Levels, and are GROWING at a RAPID Pace. Annual Sales are ABOVE Year-Ago Levels, BUT the Rate-of-Growth is SLOWING Annual Sales are BELOW Year-Ago Levels, and are DECLINING at a RAPID Pace. 58
30 Things to Pay Attention to in 218 and Beyond Impact of Tax Reform on US Debt Tariffs and Trade Weakening Dollar and Interest Rates Inflationary Pressures Employee Retention 59 3 Month Complimentary Subscription updates@itreconomics.com with the subject line MCAA ALEX IS COOL! ITR Economics Sales Team
31 ALEX CHAUSOVSKY Alex Chausovsky is an accomplished Speaker and Consultant at ITR Economics. He is a highly experienced market researcher and analyst with more than a decade of expertise in subjects that include macroeconomics, industrial manufacturing, energy efficiency, automation, and advanced technology trends. He has consulted and advised companies throughout the U.S., Europe, Brazil, China and Japan for the last fifteen years. REVIEWS As director of content for The Automation Conference, my main objective is to feature speakers who are both dynamic and relevant. That s why we ve featured Alex Chausovsky twice in the past four years. His presentations are on topic and captivating for the audience, due in large part to his clear and concise delivery of information. David Greenfield, Director of Content/Editor-in-Chief, PMMI Media Group/Automation World Alex is a consummate professional, whose presenting skills are both engaging and enjoyable. He is able to put across a great deal of detailed information in an enthusiastic, yet structured fashion. He is an eloquent speaker, whom I have had the pleasure in booking for several industry based conferences that I have staged. He brings authority and gravitas to any speaking engagement, and I would have no hesitation in recommending him to others. Andrew Castle, Managing Director, Touchwave Media SPEAKER PROFILE p e. itr@itreconomics.com ABOUT ALEX Alex regularly delivers keynote addresses at leading industry events to rave reviews. His charisma, engaging personality and refreshing demeanor on stage always surpass the audience s expectations. His extensive consulting expertise is greatly valued by management teams of companies both large and small. ITR Economics clients rely on his input when developing strategic plans for the future, as he helps them plan for risk conditions and find areas of opportunity. ALEX S PRESENTATION Alex s presentation covers a wide variety of topics including short-and long-term global economics forecasts, regional economic updates, and outlook on inflation, and the relationship of political events and economics growth. He details the economics indicators executives should follow and provides proven strategies for leveraging economic forecasts at the company level. BOOKING INFORMATION To book a speaker from ITR Economics, please call or itr@itreconomics.com. Visit and stay in touch with us through our blog and social media. ABOUT ITR ECONOMICS Founded in 1948, ITR Economics is the oldest, privately-held, continuously operating economic research & consulting firm in the United States. With a long-term 94.7% accuracy rating, ITR Economics has forecast major economic events, such as the 28 recession, well in advance and provides reliable industry and company forecasts tailored to client s needs. ITR Economics also offers economic webinars, subscription periodicals, consultative reports, and data collection services.
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