Fan-Out Packaging Technologies and Markets Jérôme Azémar
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1 Fan-Out Packaging Technologies and Markets Jérôme Azémar Senior Market and Technology Analyst at Yole Développement
2 Outline Advanced Packaging Platforms & Market drivers Fan-Out Packaging Principle & Definition Applications and Players Technologies and roadmap Market analysis Conclusions
3 Advanced Packaging Platforms & Market drivers
4 Development in CMOS processing capabilities Development in PCB processing capabilities The Evolution of Semiconductor Packaging A bridging technology between ICs and PCBs Feature sizes of PCBs Feature sizes CMOS transistors 1970 Through hole technology 1980 Surface mount devices 1990 CSPs/BGAs SiPs 2000 WLCSP more SiPs Flip Chip BGA PoP DIC TSV Fan-out WLCSP Cu pillars Silicon interposers
5 Filling the dimension gap Substrate Manufacturers OSAT / Wafer foundries Silicon/Glass Interposer High Cost Organic Substrate WLP RDL Lower cost than Si/Glass Interposer OPPORTUNITY! GAP! PCB Design Rule Wafer Design Rule More functionalities and advanced technologies nodes 100µm 10µm ~8-> 5µm 1µm 100nm 10nm
6 Advanced Packaging Platforms Focus of the presentation: Fan-Out packaging
7 Fan-Out Packaging Principle & Definition
8 Fan-Out Packaging Principle
9 Fan-Out packaging Key differentiators And others such as: Better board level reliuability compared to WLCSP RoHS an REACH compliant package Excellent electrical performance High degree of package design freedom Reliable, miniaturized high performance package
10 Embedded packaging technologies
11 Fan-out definition A proposal of definition A confusing situation: Literally speaking, Fan-Out packaging can be any package with connections fanned-out of chip surface To make a fair comparison with technologies, historically considered as Fan-Out, most of them being wafer-level-package, we consider other parameters to propose a definition Fan-Out solutions are using mold compound Fan-out solutions RDL are not using advanced substrate (PCB laminate type of layer)
12 Embedded Packaging Technologies Scope of this presentation
13 Applications and Players
14 Fan-Out Applications Different applications with different needs and characteristics (Density, package size)
15 Fan-Out Applications Potential applications for Fan-Out: Where does Fan-Out fit and how?
16 Fan-Out Applications Where can we and will we find Fan-Out? Some examples below
17 Fan-Out activities: Global map of main players*
18 Fan-Out activities: Global map of Manufacturers
19 Technologies and Roadmap
20 Fan-Out Packaging manufacturers technologies and strategies Fan-Out packaging suppliers can be classified per Fan-Out technology license ewlb manufacturers (Infineon Technology): First FOWLP that reached volume production (since 2009!) Already in mass production and with big wireless/mobile customers Licensed to several manufacturers (Nanium, JCET/STATS ChipPAC, ASE, etc ) Multi-sourcing capability Other Fan-Out technology manufacturers: Other OSATs such as Amkor/Deca Technologies/SPIL/PTI develop their own technology. ASE has recently licensed Deca Technologies solution bringing more interest in that choice Strong interest from IDMs/foundries in having a Fan-Out capability to complete their offer for their customers. TMSC used that strategy to earn A10 market thanks to InFO technology completing their front-end offer Different end-market per Fan-Out technology
21 Fan-Out packaging: Technical Challenges
22 PATENT LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
23 PATENT LANDSCAPE OVERVIEW
24 Fan-out technologies segmentation: player positioning* Fan-Out Wafer-Level- Package technologies RDL Chip First Face Down Face Up Embedding in epoxy mold compound Foundry BEOL+ RDL Chip Last Flip-Chip Fan-Out technologies Chip Last *Non-exhaustive list of players SEMICON Taiwan 2017 Jerome Azemar Yole Developpement
25 Market Analysis
26 Fan-Out market status Confirmation of a dual market with different expectations! On one side a Core Fan-Out Market Fan-Out market originally pulled by Intel Mobile Market has started to grow again reaching $320M in 2016 thanks to several changes: Price competitiveness Volume demand from fabless manufacturers (Qualcomm already started orders in 2014). Awareness of larger number of customers thanks to Fan-Out becoming trendy More qualifications made Buzz thanks to TSMC/Apple deal Some fluctuations appeared but overall growth is sustainable On the other side a High-Density Fan-Out TSMC used InFO as a competitive tool. Potential market for very high IO count applications is reachable No other volume product in that area so far
27 Fan-Out market risks Fan-Out market may not be not as sustainable as it seems: Few players dependency Heavy competition pushed by substrates manufacturers may limit its success
28 What to expect from the high-density market? Focus on APE APE packaging is raising high-expectations for FO highdensity market. First high-density product with FO Not many players to convince Apple already puts pressure on suppliers But APE packaging is a specific market Low and mid-end products are cost-focused only Controlled by few: Apple, Samsung and Qualcomm Only 2 suppliers can provide disruptive technology innovation: TSMC and Samsung OSATs can only be followers Choice of package is not the only piece of the puzzle
29 What to expect from the high-density market? Focus on APE Apple example
30 Fan-Out Activity Market Forecast
31 Fan-out packaging 2017 Revenues Market Shares (in M$) 50% TOTAL 2017 $891M 18% 9% 23% 2017: Apple A10 entry with TSMC InFO keeps changing the Fan-Out market, other players are widespread and new players enter the market
32 Cost evolution
33 Fan-Out cost evolution analysis FOWLP Cost/package* $0.40 $0.30 *Example for 8x8mm packages with single die embedding 200mm 300mm End customers are asking for lower and lower prices. Price reduction is a key parameter for Fan-Out market growth. That price reduction can be achieved by reducing manufacturing cost, which is achieved by using larger carriers. Going panel (example here with 18 x24 panel) could enable cost reductions by at least a factor 2! $0.20 $0.10 Panel < >2017 * Cost estimations based on System Plus Consulting analysis and interviews of key players
34 Fan-Out cost evolution: Trends for carriers
35 Conclusions
36 Fan-Out: Conclusions Fan-Out packaging has numerous added values Small form factor, high electrical performance, high integration capability, middle-end supply chain, etc Fan-Out Packaging is already adopted by the industry and will keep growing Many manufacturers understood that potential and tough competition will start Mobile/wireless will remain the first puller but other markets will gain more and more shares. Following that the success numerours players entered the game and provided new technologies Inducing some confusion on what is Fan-Out Apple entry using TSMC InFo has changed the game and showed there are 2 markets: Core and High density Both markets will enlarge anyway: High potential in telecom but also in medical, industrial, automotive, etc. High integration capability may open new perspectives Cost will also go down with efforts made at panel scale
37 Yole Développement From Technologies to Market Thank you! Any question? Author and Presenter: Jérôme AZEMAR - Senior Technology and Market Analyst azemar@yole.fr
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