The Law of One Price: Evidence from the Transitional Economy of China *

Transcription

1 The Law of One Price: Evidence from the Transitional Economy of China * C. Simon Fan, Lingnan University and Xiangdong Wei, ** Lingnan University November 2003 Abstract The transition of former communist countries from planned economies to market economies provides a natural experiment for testing the effectiveness of market forces in prompting shifts in the highly distorted price structures under central planning. So far, despite a growing body of empirical literature devoted to the study of price convergences and market integration in OECD countries, few attempts have been made to examine these issues in transitional economies. This paper aims to fill this gap by exploring the convergence to the law of one price in China --- the largest transitional economy in the world. By so doing, our results also shed light on the extent of marketization of the Chinese economy. JEL classifications: P22; F14 * We are grateful to Herschel Grossman for inspiration and to Stefan Gerlach, Wing Thye Woo, and the participants of the Workshop on Deflation in Hong Kong and Asia organized by the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research for helpful comments. We would like to thank Alwyn Young for making a large part of the data used in this paper available through his web page. We also thank Gary Wong and Zuo Zhi for excellent research assistance. The financial support from the Hong Kong Research Grant Council s Competitive Earmarked Grant (LU3112/03H) and Lingnan University Direct Allocation Grant (DS03A1) is gratefully acknowledged. All the remaining errors are our own. ** Corresponding author: Dr. Xiangdong Wei, Department of Economics, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong. xdwei@ln.edu.hk

2 1. Introduction Recently, there has been a surge of economic literature on the research of the law of one price and its international version --- purchasing power parity (PPP). In particular, utilizing the recently developed econometric methods of panel data unit root tests, a new wave of research has investigated the patterns of intra-national price convergence. This new strand of literature notes that the underlying theories of market segmentation can be applied to not only international markets but also markets within a country, despite that there is no exposure of exchange risk and explicit trade barriers within a single domestic economy (e.g. Parsley and Wei, 1996). Indeed, the issues of market integration and the extent of the market are central to the very foundation of the economic discipline. However, the existing literature has so far focused its attention mainly on OECD countries. This paper attempts to enrich the existing literature by examining the convergence to the law of one price in a major transitional economy --- China. In addition, there are three reasons why it is particularly important to study the issues of price convergence in transitional economies in general and in China in particular. First, the ongoing transition of former communist countries from planned economies to market economies has been one of the most important economic phenomena in the last few decades. It will therefore be interesting to examine whether the liberalization of domestic trade prompts major shifts in price structures, which were highly distorted under central planning. Second, among the transitional economies, China seems to have been the center of attention in the economic literature. In particular, as highlighted by two recent contributions by Young (2000) and Lau, Qian and Roland (2000), whether 1

3 China s gradualist reform has been successful is still a subject of great interest and intense debate. The current study can therefore provide direct empirical evidence on the extent of marketization of the Chinese economy. Third, since China embarked on its economic reform and adopted an open door policy in the late 1970 s, its economic development has been greatly fueled by its active participation in international trade. In recent years, China s major trading partners strongly requested that China should further open its domestic markets to the outside world, especially after it was admitted to the World Trade Organization. However, even if the Chinese central government considerably removes the barriers of international trade, the effectiveness of this policy will be greatly affected by regional trade barriers within China. By examining the price movements across different regions in China, this study can help reveal the empirical significance of local trade barriers. Our empirical analysis shows that, based on the criterion of price convergence that is commonly used in the existing literature, there is overwhelming evidence to support long-run convergence to the law of one price in Chinese domestic markets. Moreover, we find that both the pattern and the speed of price convergence in China s transitional economy are highly comparable with those in well-developed market economies, such as the US and Canada. Thus, by showing that Chinese domestic markets have performed quite efficiently, our study provides some empirical support for the view that the economic reform implemented in China has been generally successful in transforming its economy into a market-oriented economy. In the paper that follows, Section 2 provides a brief review of the existing literature on 2

4 the law of one price. Section 3 gives a simple account of the price reform process in China and summarizes some of the theoretical background. Section 4 describes the dataset used in this paper. The empirical methodology we employ is discussed in Section 5. Section 6 analyzes the main empirical findings. We conclude our paper in Section A Brief Literature Review In recent years, the research on purchasing power parity (PPP) and the law of one price have received increasing attention in economic literature. For example, Frankel and Rose (1996) examine deviations from PPP, using a panel of 150 countries and 45 annual post WWII observations. They find that PPP deviations are eroded at a rate of approximately 15 percent annually. Engel and Rogers (1996) examine the nature of the deviation from PPP, using price data for the United States and Canada. They find that the distance between cities explains a significant portion of the variation in the prices of similar goods in different cities, but the price variation is much higher for two cities located in different countries than for two equidistant cities in the same country. Rodrik (2000) provides a comprehensive analysis for why national borders have significantly depressing effects on international economic integration. Based on their detailed surveys of the recent literature, Froot and Rogoff (1995) and Taylor (2001) conclude that the law of one price has become the focus of substantial controversy and the subject of a growing body of literature. Closely related to our paper, much recent attention has shifted from looking at mainly 3

5 international markets to both international and domestic markets, and from using time-series data to panel data. Based on the newly developed econometric methods of panel unit root tests, these studies have examined the intra-national price movements in several OECD countries. A very partial list of some recent contributions includes Parsley and Wei (1996), Engel and Rogers (2001), Rogers (2001), Cecchetti, Mark and Sonora (2002), and Ceglowski (2003). Parsley and Wei (1996) estimate the rate of price convergence within the United States, using a panel of 51 prices from 48 cities. They find that the estimated speed of price convergence is substantially faster in the US than typically found in cross-country data. Engel and Rogers (2001) use new disaggregated data on consumer prices to determine why there is variability in prices of similar goods across US cities. In particular, they show that distance between cities accounts for a significant amount of the variation in prices between pairs of cities, but nominal price stickiness plays an even more significant role. Rogers (2001) finds evidence of price convergence in the 1990s among countries in the Euro zone. He notes that price dispersion of traded goods across the Euro zone is now close to that across US cities, but deviations from the law of one price are still largely evident, despite an ongoing process of convergence. Cecchetti, Mark and Sonora (2002) study the dynamics of price indices for major US cities and find that relative price levels among cities mean revert at a very slow rate. Ceglowski (2003) investigates the price movements for 45 specific consumer goods across 25 Canadian cities and shows that the provincial border effect is an order of magnitude smaller than the estimates for the Canada-US border. 4

6 The current paper aims to complement the existing literature by examining the implications of the law of one price in a major transitional economy --- China. In the related existing literature on transitional economies, De Masi and Koen (1996), Conway (1999), and Young (2000) investigate the relative price movements in Russia, Ukraine, and China respectively. However, none of these studies utilize the recently developed econometric methods of panel unit root tests. 3. Institutional and Theoretical Backgrounds China embarked upon economic reform in 1978 and has since followed a gradual path of transition from a planning economy toward a market economy. In an early influential book, Naughton (1995) identifies three chronological phases of economic reform in China, which coincide well with the phases of price reform. He describes the first phase ( ) as the period when reform was still the bird in the cage. Although a variety of piecemeal measures were implemented in this period, attempts to coordinate new reform policies into a coherent program failed largely due to political reasons. As a result, reformers did little to correct the distorted price structure. During this period, price reforms emphasized adjustment rather than opening up the price control system under the planned economy. The controlled prices for major agricultural goods and industrial materials were repeatedly adjusted upwards to bring them closer to the market price levels, while the controls on prices for many daily consumer goods were gradually loosened up. The second phase ( ) is the period when reforms take off. The breakthrough 5

7 arrived when the reformers introduced the policy of a dual-track economic system in 1984, which permitted outputs of major industrial materials above certain target levels to be sold on the free markets. At the same time, prices for many consumer goods, services and agricultural goods were left to be determined by the market. The prices for the remaining controlled agricultural goods were allowed to further adjust upwards to meet market equilibrium prices. The high inflation and the 1989 Tiananmen political incident ended the second phase of reform. However, the retrenchment was only temporary. China s commitment to the creation of a market economy received new emphasis in the 8 th National People s Congress in The congress announced that China s ultimate goal was to develop a socialist market economy, shifting decisively away from central planning. Meanwhile, shifts in administrative responsibility, particularly the internal distribution functions for consumer goods and services, had been introduced in parallel to the changes in policy direction. The development of the internal market was fostered by a series of mechanisms intended to reduce the scope of state intervention. A key element of the strategy was progressive price decontrol, through the introduction of three categories of prices - planned prices, guidance prices and market prices - and the gradual movement from more regulated to less regulated categories. Table 1 shows the extent of such a movement. It indicates that by the late 1990 s the prices for about 90% of products were determined by the market. 6

8 Table 1 approximately here However, despite the impressive performance of the Chinese economy in recent years, it is still far from clear whether economic reform has led to a more efficient and integrated market economy in China. Indeed, Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny (1992) posit that partial liberalizations of prices have devastating effects on resource allocations and reduce total output. Young (2000) argues that the incremental reform adopted by China resulted in rent seeking opportunities, which can be captured by local officials through the protection of local industries. Consequently, it led to the fragmentation of Chinese domestic markets. In fact, according to Young, different regions in China closely resemble different nations with regard to trade flows. 1 While the above arguments are insightful, there are counter arguments that are equally convincing. For example, Lau, Qian and Roland (2000) contend that the dual-track system is designed to compensate local officials for their losses under economic reform. Under the dual-track system, local officials can sell the rights to purchase a certain percentage of raw materials and final products at planned prices, which are lower than the market prices. Since opening up the market to other regions may significantly increase the market price, local officials can demand a much larger bribe for those rights. Consequently, local officials may have an incentive to promote 1 In particular, Young (2000, pp ) describes: To protect their industrial interests, provincial, county and, even city governments found it expedient to erect barriers to trade so as to maintain high local final industrial goods prices. Aside from tariff barriers (i.e. special charges levied at roadblocks), nontariff methods such as physical barriers, outright prohibition, low-interest loans, and other financial benefits for commercial establishments marketing local goods, fines for commercial establishments marketing nonlocal goods, local purchasing quotas, and administrative trivia were used to hamper trade The legal system was also subverted [T]he courts ignored nonlocal pleas, rulings and fines were issued against nonlocal producers. These interregional trade barriers in China described above closely resemble the numerous possible means by which national borders affect international trade recognized in the literature (e.g. see Rodrik (2000) for a comprehensive review). 7

9 interregional trade during the gradual transformation of the Chinese economy. Among others, Naughton (1995) and Wei (1997) also demonstrated that the gradualism reform adopted by China has many economic and political advantages over the big-bang reform adopted by Russia and other East European countries. In summary, there are competing theoretical arguments over the effects of the gradualism reform employed in China. In particular, they make opposite predictions about whether Chinese local officials have an incentive to promote or restrict inter-regional trade. Hence, it is interesting to see how empirical evidence squares with these predictions. In the existing literature, Young (2000) seems to be the only empirical study on price convergence/divergence in China. He uses several panel data sets of price index and specific product prices to calculate the standard deviations of log prices across different regions/cities in China, and finds that these standard deviations fluctuate substantially over time. He then interprets his finding as evidence in support of his argument that gradualism resulted in market fragmentations in China s transitional economy. However, sizable price fluctuations in the short run do not necessary rule out a long-run tendency towards price parity. This paper extends Young s study by applying the recently developed econometric methods of panel unit root tests to an examination of price convergences/divergences in China. In comparison with Young, our panel unit root analysis aims to investigate the long-run stochastic trend of relative price movement and identify whether prices converge or not in the long run while Young s study mainly focuses on short-run price fluctuations. 8

10 4. Data The dataset used in this empirical study is a panel data set of monthly prices for a group of industrial materials, cars and agricultural goods, which are published in the China Price journal of the China Price Information Centre --- a division of the State Planning Committee of the People s Republic of China. Young (2000) was the first to use this data source. 2 Since Young s data only covers the period from 1990 to 1999, we update the data to 2003 using the information provided by the China Price Information Centre. This update not only increases the sample period covered by the data but also significantly enlarges the sample size as the data for the latter period have far less missing information than the early period. The initial dataset contains the monthly price information for 49 industrial materials and cars in 36 cities 3 for the period March 1990 to February 2003, and 33 agricultural products in the same 36 cities for the period June 1993 to February As mentioned above, the data contains a large amount of missing information especially in the earlier periods. For the purpose of our analyses, we have to use continuous time series data for each product and city. We therefore choose the longest possible continuous time series for each product and city. To avoid the small sample problem, we first exclude any 2 Young (2000) also uses annual data in his empirical study. However, his annual price data are price index data, which are not as good as specific product price data in examining price convergence. Furthermore, as analyzed by Taylor (2001), using low-frequency data in the study of price convergence often results in biases. Thus, we choose to use only monthly data in this paper. 3 The 36 main Chinese cities are Beijing, Changchun, Changsha, Chengdu, Dalian, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Guizhou, Ha erbin, Haikou, Hangzhou, Hefei, Huhehaote, Jinan, Kunming, Lasha, Lanzhou, Nanchang, Nanjing, Nanning, Ningbo, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Shenyang, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Tianjin, Wulumuqi, Wuhan, Xi an, Xining, Xiamen, Yinchuan, Zhengzhou, Chongqing and Shanghai. These include 4 municipalities and all capital cities for the 28 provinces and autonomous regions in Mainland China. 9

11 product that has less than 30 continuous observations in all cities. Next, we exclude those cities that have less than 30 continuous observations for each product. The result is an unbalanced panel dataset for a total of 65 industrial materials, cars and agricultural goods in 36 major Chinese cities. Fortunately, as pointed out by Young, the missing information is random and hence our results will not be affected by such a data selection process. The names and sample sizes for all these 65 products are listed in Appendix Table A1. Our dataset has some distinctive features. First, all the price data were regularly collected from local markets by government agencies. Since the implementation of the dual-track price system market prices were available even for the products still under state controls. Second, our data set has monthly time series for all prices. This is in contrast with most of the related literature on purchasing power parity and the law of one price, which typically uses quarterly or annual data. As recently analyzed by Taylor (2001), the use of low-frequency data often generates biases in estimating the half-life for price convergence. Therefore, the use of relatively high-frequency (monthly) data by our empirical analysis will possibly generate more accurate estimates of the speed of convergence. Third, the definitions for all products in this dataset are quite specific and stable over time, which implies that the product nature and quality does not change a great deal over time. Fourth, the panel data set we use is truly nationally representative as it covers all major cities in Mainland China. For the convenience of presentation, we group the products into the following five categories: raw industrial materials (9); processed industrial materials (23); cars and 10

12 trucks (6); grains and edible oils (7); and fresh food (20). The above categorization has taken into account the following factors. First, the production of raw industrial materials is to a large extent under the control of local monopolies and their prices still face regulations from the central government. We thus separate them from other industrial materials, which generally face less control from the central government. The second category is processed industrial materials. If Young s (2000) proposition is right we should observe more price variations across cities for processed industrial materials, as they are more profitable and hence prone to local protection. The third category is cars and trucks. The markets for cars and trucks are oligopolistic in nature, as the production of cars and trucks requires huge investment and technological know-how and cannot be easily duplicated across regions. Meanwhile, there are high profit margins for producing cars and trucks as the domestic markets for such products were very much sheltered from international competition for the period under our investigation. Based on Young s argument, therefore, one would expect that local governments have a strong incentive to protect these markets for rent-seeking purposes. Finally, for agricultural goods, we simply separated them into perishable and non-perishable. This division is based on the observation that perishable goods are more difficult to store and transport and hence their prices are more likely to experience large variations. We now turn to the basic statistics of our data. Similar to Cecchetti, Mark and Sonora (2002) and O Connell and Wei (2002), we define price variation as p = ln( g / g ), where i, j and t stand for city, product and time, respectively; g ijt denotes raw price of ijt ijt jt 11

13 product j in city i at time t; g jt denotes for the mean of g ijt over cities at time t. 4 Following Parsley and Wei (1996), we have calculated the variability of price differentials and mean absolute price differentials for those five categories of goods. Price differential variability is defined as the standard deviation over time of the percentage price difference ( p = ln( g / g ) ), and mean absolute price differential is ijt ijt defined as the mean absolute deviation of log prices between cities, that is, the mean over time of ln( g / g ). Both of these measures, which are shown in Table 2, ijt jt intuitively illustrate how prices deviate from the mean over time and across cities. jt Table 2 approximately here From Table 2, we can see that for industrial products, processed industrial materials have the highest variability of price differentials as well as absolute price differentials. For agricultural goods, the fresh food category has higher variability of price differentials and absolute price differentials. Furthermore, the fresh food category has the highest variability of price differentials and absolute price differentials among all five categories of goods. It should be noted that as the markets for fresh foods have long been liberalized in China since the beginning of economic reform, these markets were least likely to be protected by regional governments. The fact that this category of goods has the highest variability of price differentials seems to suggest that price variations in China were affected more by the factors such as product storage and 4 Though not shown, we have performed the same tests by using Shanghai as the benchmark city to define price variations. In other words, instead of examining whether prices in different cities converge to the cross-sectional mean, we also investigated whether prices in different cities converge to those in Shanghai. We find that this alternative method of defining price variations yields very similar results to the ones reported in the paper. 12

14 transportation costs than by regional trade barriers. Parsley and Wei (1996, p.1216) provide the same statistics for their price data in the US. Although the products covered by our study are somewhat different from those investigated by Parsley and Wei, it is still revealing to compare the corresponding statistics for the data used in both studies. We find that for all the categories of products, except the fresh food, the variability of price differentials and absolute price differentials are actually smaller in China than in the United States. Consistent with the above result, this comparison also suggests that the problem of fragmentation of the Chinese domestic markets might not be serious. In what follows, we will provide a more rigorous empirical analysis. 5. Methodology The law of one price implies that the prices for the same product sold in different markets tend to converge to the same level due to profit incentives and market forces. In mathematical terms, the convergence to the law of one price for a product means that its time series of relative prices is mean reverting or stationary. The common approach to examine price convergence then applies the unit root test to examine the stationarity of price differential series. The rejection of the unit root hypothesis implies that the time series of relative prices are stationary so that relative prices will converge in the long run. On the other hand, if these tests fail to reject the hypothesis, then the relative prices follow a random walk. Hence, any deviation from the one price becomes permanent. 13

15 However, it has been noticed that the commonly used unit root test for a single time series, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, has low power in the sense that it tends to overly reject the stationarity hypothesis of a time series. Levin and Lin (1992) have shown that the use of a unit root test for a pooled time series and cross-sectional (panel) data can significantly increase the power of the test. They developed their method from a multivariate generalization of the ADF test, and provided statistical foundations for panel unit root tests. However, a limitation of the Levin-Lin test is that it imposes a cross-equation restriction on the first order autocorrelation coefficients. Recognizing this problem, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) and Maddala and Wu (1999), among others, put forward the panel unit root tests that allow the autocorrelation coefficients to differ across panel members. Moreover, the Maddala-Wu test has the advantage of being applicable to both unbalanced and balanced panel data sets. In this paper, we will first apply the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to each of our individual time series to examine whether the relative price series (p ijt =ln(g ijt / g )) is stationary. Next, we will use the recently developed panel unit root test by Maddala and Wu (1999) (thereafter the MW test) to our unbalanced panel data as a whole. jt Specifically, the MW test involves first testing the unit root for each cross-sectional unit separately. We thus carry out the following Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for each city and each product: p ijt = c ij ij ijt 1 K + α p + β p + ε h= 1 ijh ijt h ij (1) 14

16 where is a first difference operator and ε is an i.i.d. (identically independently distributed) error term; i, j and t stand for city, product and time, respectively; K is the number of lags needed to be included in the test that is determined on a city-by-city and product-by-product basis. Denoting the p-value for the above unit root test as P ij, Maddala and Wu have shown that N 2 log (N is the number of cross-sectional i= 1 P ij units) has a χ 2 distribution with degree of freedom, 2N, based on a theorem developed by Fisher (1970). 6. Results We start our empirical analyses by carrying out the ADF test for every product and over each city. The number of lags, K, to be included in (1) for each product and city series is determined individually by using the Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC). All our ADF specifications include a constant term to capture city specific fixed effects. Such effects may cover, for example, city specific transportation cost and wage cost. Hence, the inclusion of the constant term captures whether prices converge to absolute price parity (zero mean) or relative price parity (non-zero mean). Then, for each product j, we calculate the MW unit root test-statistic as 2 log, where N is the number of cities that have a minimum of 30 continuous observations on the price of that product, and P ij is the McKinnon s p-value for the ADF test of the ith city. The calculated MW test-statistics over all products together with their significance levels are listed in Column 5 of Table 3. N i= 1 P ij 15

17 Table 3 approximately here We first look at the individual time series unit root test results. In Columns 2 and 3 of Table 3, we report the proportion of cities where the univariate ADF test rejects the unit root hypothesis at 10% and 5% significance levels, respectively. For the 10% significance level, these range from the lowest of 5 out of 25 cities (Caustic Soda (solid content >30%) and Nickel) to the highest of 36 out of 36 (Green Peppers (first grade)), and with an average of 62% cities converging to the law of one price (see Column 2 of Table 4). Using the 5% significance level, we can still reject the unit root hypothesis for 52% of cities (see Column 3 of Table 4). Thus, these results reveal substantial evidence against the unit root hypothesis, and support the hypothesis of long-run price parity in the transitional economy of China. Furthermore, it should be noted that these figures match very closely to the findings in Canadian prices by Ceglowski (2003). Using a Canadian panel of prices with 45 specific consumer goods and across 25 cities, Ceglowski found that the unit root null was rejected at the 10% level for 55% of the relative price series/cities and at the 5% level for 45% of the series/cities based on the ADF test. Hence, the patterns of price convergence in China appear to be highly comparable with those in a well-developed country. As for the price convergence for different categories of product, we find that the percentage of cities that reject the unit root null is the highest for fresh food (80%), followed by processed industrial materials (59%), cars and trucks (51%), raw industrial materials (48%) and then grain and edible oils (41%). These results may appear to be counterintuitive at first sight, since one would expect that price convergence should be 16

18 most prevalent for grain and edible oils, which have relative low storage and transportation costs and face similar market competition across regions. However, recall that we have shown in Table 2 that the fresh food category has the highest variability of price differentials while the category of grain and edible oils has the lowest. So, this result may be explained by the existence of a non-linear price convergence process, 5 which means that a larger price difference implies a greater profit incentive for engaging in intercity arbitrage and consequently more tendency for prices to converge. Finally, it is interesting to see that for both processed industrial products and cars and trucks, which are more likely to suffer from inter-regional trade restrictions, the percentages of convergent cities are still above 50. Next, we look at the number of significant constant terms in (1) for all price series. The corresponding figures are shown in Column 4 of Table 4. Our results reveal that for 57% of the convergent individual relative price series the constant term in (1) is significant at the 10% level. This means for the majority of cities prices converge to relative rather than absolute parity. Table 4 approximately here Price convergence to the relative parity means that despite long run price convergence fixed price gaps still exist across different cities due to some city-specific heterogeneities. These city-specific heterogeneities may arise from differences in 5 O Connell and Wei (2001) have studied the possibility of non-linear price convergence explicitly and shown that after accounting for the possible non-linear price convergence process, prices tend to be more likely to converge to the law of one price in the US. 17

19 regional transportation, wage and rental costs. However, it can also be caused by some trade barriers, such as local tariffs imposed by municipal governments. To the extent that our data and methodology cannot properly identify the exact causes for such city-specific gaps, the question of whether or not there exist local trade barriers in China remains unsolved. However, the following three pieces of evidence may convince us that even if there may still exist some local trade barriers in China the extent of market fragmentation should not be serious. First, our finding of overall price convergence in China indicates that markets across different cities are indeed inter-related or integrated. Second, both Parsley and Wei (1996) and Ceglowski (2003) find that there are also significant number of prices in their studies for the US and Canada that follow relative price convergence rather than absolute price convergence. 6 Third, from Column 4 of Table 4, we note that processed industrial materials and raw industrial materials have much less proportions of significant constants than grain and edible oils and fresh food. In other words, the categories of the products whose interregional trade was more likely to be restricted by local officials for rent seeking purpose are actually more likely to converge to absolute price parity. This finding suggests that the local protectionism might be a less important obstacle to inter-regional trade in China than some other factors (e.g. transportation costs). The univariate ADF test is commonly viewed as having low power to reject unit root 6 Parsley and Wei find that for 60% of their products prices converge to relative parity (constant terms are jointly significant in their fixed-effect panel estimation results) in the US. Ceglowski (2003) also identifies that in about 30% of cases pries converge to relative price parity in Canada. However, neither of these studies specifies whether the percentage figures are calculated based on all convergent prices or on the whole price date (including both the non-convergent and convergent prices). So, the comparison is only indicative. (It should be noted that a significant constant in a non-stationary time series implies neither absolute price parity nor relative price parity.) 18

20 null. Therefore it can only provide us with information regarding the minimum number of cities for which prices converge to the law of one price for each product. So we now turn to our panel unit root test results, which fully utilizes the information contained in the panel data and has proven to be far more powerful than the univariate ADF test. From Column 5 of Table 3, the results of the MW unit root test are quite striking. If we look at the panel price data for each product, we can reject the null of a unit root for all products at 5% significance level, except for Nickel, which just misses the 5% level but can pass the 10% level easily. This means that there is a strong tendency for prices to converge to the law of one price for all products in our dataset. Furthermore, it is interesting to look at how fast prices converge to the law of one price in China. To do so, we calculate the half life 7 for all the convergent log price differential series of each product. Then, the average half life for all products is shown in Column 6 of Table 3 and is summarized in Column 5 of Table 4. These results show that the half life ranges from 0.75 month to 5.01 months with an overall average of 2.34 months and the median half life of 2.26 months. This finding is quite surprising as our estimated median half life is far below than the median half life found in the corresponding studies for the US and Canada. For example, Parsley and Wei (1996) found that the median half life for a panel of US goods prices was about four to five quarters and Ceglowski (2003) found a median half life of 0.55 years for a panel of Canadian product prices. Since it is hard to imagine that the Chinese domestic markets are more efficient than those in the USA and Canada, a more reasonable explanation for these findings is that the data employed in our study have higher frequency than 7 Half life is derived based on the following formula: ln(0.5)/ln(1+α). 19

21 those used by Parsley and Wei (1996) and Ceglowski (2003). It has been demonstrated by Taylor (2001) that the estimated speed of price convergence can be seriously biased upwards if low frequency data are used. We believe that the monthly frequency of our price data matches with the actual time needed for price arbitrage in China well and hence is more likely to avoid/reduce the bias of estimation pointed out by Taylor. In summary, our econometric analysis shows that there is strong evidence of price convergence and hence market integration in China. Such a finding is in favor of the view that China s transition to the market economy has been quite successful during the last two decades. Meanwhile, from a long-run point of view, it casts doubt on Young s theoretical argument that China s economic reform has led to the fragmentation of its domestic markets. Finally, we notice that our findings appear to be consistent with a recent empirical study by Bai, Du, Tao and Tong (forthcoming), who investigated the determinants of regional specialization in China. Based on a data set of regional distribution of industries in China, they found that the conventional economic theories (the external economies theory and the increasing-return-to-scale theory) that underpin regional specialization have become dominant over the forces of local protectionism in recent years. Hence, their finding is also in contrast to Young s view that the incremental reform adopted by China has actually led to the fragmentation of the domestic markets. 20

22 7. Conclusion The economic transition of former communist countries from planned economies to market economies is one of the most important global phenomena in the last two decades. Since price liberalization is the necessary mean to establish a full market system, it is the key element of transition. In the Chinese context, prices have been gradually liberalized through the dual track system. Under the system, both the government regulated prices and market determined prices for some products co-exist for a period of time while the government gradually reduces the proportion of the output under its price control. From Table 1, we can clearly see that prices have been increasingly liberalized in the last decade as the share of planned prices has been steadily declining. Utilizing a recently developed panel data unit root test and a large panel dataset, this paper provides the first empirical study for China on the convergence to the law of one price across Chinese domestic markets. Such a study not only enriches the literature on price convergence by adding a new piece of evidence from a large transitional economy, but also sheds light on the recent debate over how successful the gradualist reform in China has been. Based on the criterion of price convergence that is commonly used in the existing literature, we find that prices did converge to the law of one price in China for all the products in our dataset. Moreover, we discover that the patterns of price convergence in the transitional economy of China was highly comparable with those in the United 21

23 States and Canada and the estimated speed of price convergence for China is even faster than those estimated for these countries. Such a finding supports the view that China s gradualist reform has been quite successful in transforming its economy from a planned to a market-oriented economy. 22

24 References Bai, Chong-En, Du, Yingjuan, Tao, Zhigang and Sarah Y. Tong (forthcoming). Local Protectionism and Regional Concentration: Evidence for Chinese Industries. Journal of International Economics. Cecchetti, Stephen G., Nelson C. Mark, and Robert J. Sonora (2002). Price Index Convergence among United States Cities. International Economic Review, 43(4): Ceglowski, Janet (2003). The Law of One Price: Intranational Evidence for Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, 36(2): Conway, Patrick (1999). Privatization and Price Convergence: Evidence from Four Markets in Kyiv. Journal of Comparative Economics, 27(2): De Masi, Paula and Vincent Koen (1996). Relative Price Convergence in Russia. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 43(1): Engel, Charles and John H. Rogers (1996). How wide is the border. American Economic Review, 86, Engel, Charles and John H. Rogers (2001). Violating the Law of One Price: Should We Make a Federal Case Out of It? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 33(1): Fisher, Ronald Aylmer (1970). Statistical Methods for Research Workers. Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd. Edition 14th ed., revised and enlarged. Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Andrew K. Rose (1996). A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion within and between Countries. Journal of International Economics, 40(1-2): Froot, Kenneth A. and Kenneth Rogoff (1995). Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates, in Grossman, Gene M. and Rogoff, Kenneth, eds. Handbook of International Economics, Volume 3: pp , Amsterdam: Elsevier, North-Holland. Im, Kyung-So, M. Hashem Pesaran, and Yongcheol Shin (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics. 115(1): Lau, Lawrence J., Qian, Yingyi and Gerard Roland (2000). Reform without Losers: An Interpretation of China s Dual-Track Approach to Transition. Journal of Political Economy, 108(1): Levin, Andrew and C. Lin (1992). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties, unpublished manuscript, University of California, San 23

25 Diego Discussion Paper Maddala, G. S. and Shaowen Wu 1999). Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(0): Murphy, Kevin M., Andrei Shleifer, and Robert W. Vishny (1992). The Transition to a Market Economy: Pitfalls of Partial Reform. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(3): Naughton, Barry (1995). Growing out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform, New York: Cambridge University Press. Parsley, David and Shang-jin Wei (1996). Convergence to the Law of One Price without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(4): O Connell, Paul G. J. and Shang-Jin Wei (2002). The Bigger They Are, the Harder They Fall: Retail Price Differences Across U.S. Cities. Journal of International Economics, 56(1): Rodrik, Dani (2000). How Far Will International Economic Integration Go? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(1): Rogers, John (2001). Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe. International Finance Discussion Paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Wei, Shang-Jin (1997). Gradualism versus Big Bang: Speed and Sustainability of Reforms. Canadian Journal of Economics, 30(4): Taylor, Alan M. (2001). Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price. Econometrica, 69(2): Young, Alwyn (2000). The Razor s Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People s Republic of China. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(4):

26 Table 1. Share of Three Categories of Prices in Different Types of Products Types of Products Categories of prices Consumer goods and Services Planned price 30% 21% 6% 5% 7% 9% 6% 6% 4% Guidance price 17% 10% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% Market price 53% 69% 93% 94% 91% 89% 93% 93% 95% Agricultural goods Planned price 25% 22% 13% 10% 17% 17% 17% 16% 9% Guidance price 23% 20% 6% 2% 4% 4% 4% 3% 7% Market price 52% 58% 82% 88% 79% 79% 79% 81% 84% Industrial Materials Planned price 45% 36% 19% 14% 15% 16% 14% 14% 10% Guidance price 19% 18% 8% 5% 5% 7% 5% 5% 4% Market price 36% 46% 74% 81% 80% 78% 81% 82% 86% Source: China Statistics Year Book (various years). Table 2. Variability of Price Differentials and Absolute Price Differentials Product groups (sample size) Variability of price differentials a Mean absolute price differentials b Mean Standard Deviation Mean Standard Deviation Processed Industrial Materials (75461) Raw Industrial Materials (25627) Cars & Trucks (14538) Grain & Edible Oils (15817) Fresh Food (65857) Note: a. Price differential variability is defined as the standard deviation over time of the percentage price difference ( p = ln( g / g ) ). b. Mean absolute price differential is defined as the mean absolute deviation of log prices between cities, i.e., the mean over time of ln( g / g ). ijt ijt jt ijt jt 25

27 Table 3. Univariate and Panel Unit Root Tests PRODUCT PROPORTION OF CONVERGENT CITIES (10%) PROPORTION OF CONVERGENT CITIES (5%) NO. OF SIGNIFICANT CONSTANTS MADDALA-WU TEST- STATISTICS HALF LIFE Processed Industrial Materials: Hot Rolled Carbon Tied Elemental Steel 28/35 26/ * Threaded Steel 28/34 23/ * Hot Rolled Ordinary Carbon Angle Steel 21/36 16/ * Hot Rolled Ordinary Carbon Wire Rod 28/36 23/ * Hot Rolled Ordinary Carbon Medium Plate 19/36 16/ * Hot Rolled Ordinary Carbon Sheet Metal 23/34 18/ * Cold Rolled Ordinary Carbon Sheet Metal 23/35 21/ * Zinc-plated (Galvanized) Plate 25/36 18/ * Cast Pig Iron (Manganese Something) 14/31 9/ * Gasoline (For Cars) 30/35 28/ * Diesel Oil (Light) 28/34 25/ * Caustic Soda (Solid Content > 98%) 19/36 14/ * Caustic Soda (Solid Content > 30%) 5/25 4/ * Soda Ash (First Quality Content > 98.5%) 28/36 23/ * Sulphuric Acid (Content > 98%) 11/35 6/ * Polythelene (High Pressure Industry Use) 20/36 18/ * Polypropylene (Equal to First Quality) 27/35 23/ * Cement (Ordinary) 13/36 11/ * Cement 10/27 8/ * Plate Glass (Standard 3MM) 20/36 15/ * Steelmaking 8/26 6/ * Track 7/21 6/ * Billet 8/19 6/ *

28 Table 3. Continued PRODUCT NAMES PROPORTION OF CONVERGENT CITIES (10%) PROPORTION OF CONVERGENT CITIES (5%) NO. OF SIGNIFICANT CONSTANTS MADDALA-WU TEST- STATISTICS HALF LIFE Raw Industrial Materials: Copper (Electrolysis) 25/35 22/ * Aluminum (Electrolysis) 23/35 18/ * Lead (Electrolysis) 21/35 17/ * Zinc (Refined) 18/34 12/ * Anthracite 7/27 7/ * Pine Logs (4-5.8 M Long, CM Diameter 12/29 8/ * China Fir Logs (5-5.8 M Long, CM Diameter) 11/21 9/ * Nickel 5/25 4/ ** Tin 9/31 7/ * Cars and Trucks: Medium Model Trains (5 Ton East Wind Model) 21/31 17/ * Medium Model Trains (5 Ton Liberty Model) 16/31 15/ * Light Model Trains ( Ton, 130 Model) 17/36 16/ * Sedan (Santana) 21/35 20/ * Sedan (Xiali) 13/31 11/ * Sedan (Hongqi) 13/34 10/ * Grain & Edible Oils Flour (Ordinary or Standard Grade) 11/30 9/ * Corn Flour (Top Grade) 9/32 5/ * Polished Rice 18/35 17/ * Flour (Top Grade) 18/36 14/ * Peanut Oil 11/26 8/ * Rapeseed Oil (Second Grade) 11/25 8/ *

29 Table 3. Continued PRODUCT NAMES PROPORTION OF CONVERGENT CITIES (10%) PROPORTION OF CONVERGENT CITIES (5%) NO. OF SIGNIFICANT CONSTANTS MADDALA-WU TEST- STATISTICS HALF LIFE Soya-bean Oil (Second Grade) 8/25 4/ * Fresh Foods: Chinese Cabbage (First Grade) 34/36 33/ * Pork (De-boned, Fresh) 26/36 22/ * Potato (First Grade) 34/36 33/ * Beef (De-boned, Fresh) 23/36 17/ * Mutton (De-boned, Fresh) 17/31 16/ * Chicken 18/34 17/ * Eggs (Fresh, Intact) 30/34 28/ * Fresh Hair tail (Less than 0.5kg a piece) 29/36 24/ * Silver Carp (More than 0.5kg a piece) 22/35 15/ * Apples (First Grade) 27/34 23/ * Watermelon (First Grade) 25/33 17/ * Pork 19/33 13/ * Soybean (Top Grade) 27/36 18/ * Cucumber (First Grade) 35/36 35/ * Tomato (First Grade) 34/36 31/ * Eggplant (First Grade) 35/36 34/ * Radish (First Grade) 34/36 33/ * Green Peppers (First Grade) 36/36 36/ * Pear 27/33 21/ * Spinach 32/35 29/ * * Significant at 5% level; **Significant at 10% level. 28

30 Table 4. Average Percentage of Convergent Cities, Proportion of Significant Constants and Half Life PRODUCT CATEGORIES PERCENTAGE OF CONVERGENT CITIES PERCENTAGE OF CONVERGENT CITIES (10% SIGNIFICANCE) (5% SIGNIFICANCE) CONSTANTS PROPORTION OF SIGNIFICANT HALF LIFE Processed Industrial Materials 59% 48% 38% 2.82 Raw Industrial Materials 48% 38% 42% 2.59 Cars and Trucks 51% 45% 65% 2.27 Grain and Edible Oils 41% 31% 79% 2.49 Fresh Food 80% 71% 72% 1.66 Overall 62% 52% 57%